Competent Man Podcast

Tom Bodrovics
  • 4.7 (19)
  • ENTREPRENEURSHIP
  • UPDATED WEEKLY

This isn’t just another podcast—it’s a movement for thinkers, doers, and anyone ready to step up and become the best version of themselves, one skill at a time. Bringing you a wide range of content so come with an open mind and a sense of adventure!

Episodes

  1. 13H AGO

    Bob Coleman: What Is Holding Back The Silver Market?

    Bob Coleman, Founder and President of Idaho Armored Vault, discusses the evolution of the gold and silver industry with Tom Bodrovics. Over the past five to six years, the industry has shifted from a focus on mining and monetary metals to a more casino-like atmosphere, driven by high-frequency trading and hedge funds. This shift has led to increased volatility and the dominance of paper markets over physical metals. Coleman highlights the role of ETFs like SLV and GLD, which are used for investment, hedging, and speculation, and how options and futures markets influence price movements. He notes that the physical metal remains the bedrock of the industry, but the price action is often driven by derivative strategies rather than physical demand. Coleman also discusses the impact of high-frequency trading and algorithmic strategies on price movements, citing examples from October 2023 and January 2024. He explains how the dislocation of metal between exchanges and the tightening of borrowing rates can create volatility and affect the ability of market makers to create shares. Coleman raises concerns about the reliability of exchanges like the CME and LME, citing outages and the cancellation of trades, which can create uncertainty and reputational risk. He also discusses the role of margins in stabilizing or destabilizing markets and the potential for illiquidity to drive prices higher. Coleman advises investors to understand the fundamentals of the market, the market structure, and the risks associated with storing metals. He cautions against relying too heavily on AI and encourages critical thinking and diversification of knowledge sources. Coleman also touches on the potential impact of longer-dated calls on gold and the importance of understanding the strategies behind such trades. He concludes by emphasizing the need for due diligence and a healthy dose of skepticism in navigating the complex and volatile precious metals market.

    55 min

  2. 3D AGO

    Edward Dowd: Three Risks The U.S. Can’t Stop – That Will Crash the Markets

    Edward Dowd, founding partner of Phinance Technologies and co-host of the Signal Vs. Noise Podcast, discusses several significant economic themes with Tom Bodrovics, including a potential housing crisis in the US, the bursting of the AI bubble, and China's real estate and demographic challenges. Dowd highlights that a sustained oil price above $80 due to conflict with Iran could exacerbate the current economic situation, leading to deflationary pressures as consumers are already strained. The impending housing crisis, termed a "white swan" event, is driven by factors such as the post-COVID housing boom, increased property taxes, and rising interest rates. Dowd notes that the market is frozen due to unrealistic price expectations and affordability issues, with new home pending sales at an all-time low. This crisis could significantly impact the consumer economy, as housing constitutes about 20% of it. Dowd also addresses the AI bubble, suggesting that cracks are already appearing as credit markets question the growth rates and revenues of AI startups. He predicts that the AI bubble could burst this year, with credit markets playing a crucial role in this process. The discussion also touches on the differences between private credit and public credit cycles. Private credit, which has grown significantly post-2008, is more opaque and could lead to higher bid-ask spreads as the cycle unwinds. Dowd warns that this could create feedback loops, tightening credit and potentially freezing the market. Regarding the stock market, Dowd believes it has been stagnant since October 2022 and predicts a 30-50% drawdown. He advises having cash on hand to take advantage of opportunities during this deflationary scare. Dowd also discusses the potential for a new monetary system, suggesting that gold and silver will play a significant role and could reach much higher prices by 2030. Dowd sees the US dollar as a strong currency in the next 6-12 months and expects bonds to perform well due to declining growth expectations and deflationary pressures. He also highlights the potential contagion effects from China's real estate and demographic crisis, which could impact its trading partners and, consequently, the global economy. Dowd concludes by sharing his daily routine of monitoring yields, the dollar, and equity markets to gauge the economic landscape. He emphasizes the importance of understanding cycles and demographics in predicting economic trends.

    32 min

  3. MAR 5

    Craig Tindale: Is AI Coming For Your Job?

    Craig Tindale, a private investor and writer of the CTindale Substack, joined host Tom Bodrovics for an in-depth discussion on geopolitical dynamics, economic shifts, and the implications of artificial intelligence (AI). The conversation began with an analysis of the geopolitical situation in Iran, particularly focusing on the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz. Tindale emphasized that the strait is a critical choke point for global energy and trade, comparing it to the jugular vein of global commerce. He noted that while oil prices spiked during recent conflicts, the market's initial lack of reaction to the 12-day war signaled a belief that oil shipping through the strait would not be significantly disrupted. Tindale delved into the concept of "titanium bolts"—small but crucial components that, if missing, can halt entire systems. He applied this analogy to the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting that even if oil flow is maintained, the disruption of other critical supplies could have profound economic consequences. He highlighted the interdependence of global economies, using China as an example, noting that while China has significant oil reserves, it imports vast amounts of other essential goods, making it vulnerable to disruptions. The discussion then shifted to the role of AI in the global economy. Tindale argued that while AI is often portrayed as a job-killing technology, its impact is more nuanced. He pointed out that many jobs, particularly in white-collar sectors, have already been automated or outsourced. Tindale suggested that AI could fill gaps left by an aging workforce, particularly in sectors like aged care, where demand is expected to rise significantly. He also criticized the current marketing and implementation of AI, suggesting that companies are not effectively communicating the benefits and capabilities of the technology. Tindale and Bodrovics also explored the idea of decoupling between the U.S. and China, suggesting that while there is a political push for decoupling, the economic interdependence is too deep to be easily severed. They discussed the potential for a new geopolitical balance, where the U.S. and China might find a way to cooperate despite their differences. The conversation concluded with a reflection on the evolution of technology and society. Tindale emphasized the importance of understanding the physical and metabolic systems that underpin the economy, suggesting that the future will involve a rebalancing of global trade and a focus on sustainability and resilience. He advised listeners not to over-rely on predictions and to maintain a balanced perspective on the future.

    1h 1m

  4. MAR 4

    Peter Goodburn: Amid Iran Chaos 🚨 Gold & Silver Plunge – Rebound When?

    In a March 3rd podcast, host Tom Bodrovics and Peter Goodburn, founding partner of WaveTrack International, discussed the impact of recent geopolitical events in the Middle East on financial markets, with a focus on commodities and metals. Goodburn, an advocate of Elliott Wave analysis, emphasized that this method discounts fundamental news, with price action preceding exogenous events. He cited the recent decline in precious metals, despite expectations of a safe-haven rally, as an example of this phenomenon. Goodburn also discussed the "shock pop drop" cycle, a concept he introduced in 2010 to explain the behavior of stock and commodity markets since the Great Depression. According to this framework, the financial crisis of 2008 was the "shock," followed by a "pop" phase of commodity inflation, which is still ongoing and expected to last until the end of the decade. The subsequent "drop" phase will be characterized by a collapse in asset prices. Goodburn expects interest rates to rise significantly in the coming years, with the Fed funds rate potentially reaching 10%. He also discussed the implications of the US dollar's bearish long-term outlook for commodities and the potential for a significant increase in oil prices in the future. Goodburn provided specific price targets for various commodities, including gold, silver, platinum, and uranium, based on Elliott Wave analysis. He also highlighted the importance of questioning mainstream narratives and conducting independent research in financial markets. Goodburn encouraged listeners to explore WaveTrack International's reports and services for further insights.

    1h 3m

  5. FEB 26

    Craig Tindale: The West is Sleepwalking into the Real War of a New Age

    Craig Tindale, a private investor and writer of the CTindale Substack, discusses the "return of matter" with host Tom Bodrovics, emphasizing the shift from a financialized economy to a material economy. Tindale argues that the West has outsourced manufacturing to countries like China, leading to a dependency on foreign supply chains for critical materials. This has created vulnerabilities, particularly in defense and technology sectors, where materials like gallium, tantalum, and rare earths are essential. Tindale highlights that China's control over refining processes for these materials poses significant risks, as evidenced by shortages and strategic restrictions. He uses examples like silver and tantalum to illustrate how critical material deficiencies can disrupt industries and economies. Tindale criticizes the Western focus on optimizing for price, which has led to a stateless economic model that prioritizes lowest cost over sovereignty and security. He argues that this model has been exploited by state capitalist economies like China, which optimize for their own interests. Tindale suggests that the West needs to rebalance its economy by investing in domestic manufacturing and refining capabilities to ensure self-sufficiency and security. He references historical figures like Alexander Hamilton and contemporary issues like the F-35 fighter jet program to underscore the importance of maintaining industrial independence. Tindale also discusses the role of passive investing and the Federal Reserve in exacerbating economic imbalances, and he advocates for a more balanced approach that values the material economy alongside the financial one. He concludes by encouraging investment in innovative companies that are developing new technologies for refining and producing critical materials, suggesting that these companies will be the future leaders in a world increasingly aware of supply chain vulnerabilities.

    1h 8m

  6. FEB 24

    Louis-Vincent Gave: China Has a Crisis of Confidence

    In this podcast, Louis-Vincent Gave, Founding Partner & CEO of Gavekal Group, discusses his unique perspective on global economics, drawing from his extensive experience in Asia, particularly China. Gave argues that China has shifted from being a deflationary force to a reflationary one, a change driven by China's strategic de-westernization of its supply chains, which initially led to a real estate bust and reduced domestic consumption. However, China's newfound competitiveness in high-value industries has positioned it as a significant global economic force. Gave highlights that China's policy shift towards stimulating domestic consumption and reducing reliance on exports will have global implications, potentially forcing Western policymakers to reassess their fiscal and monetary policies. Gave also delves into the complexities of China's internal issues, such as youth unemployment, stagnant wage growth, and the impact of real estate market fluctuations on consumer confidence. He emphasizes that China's challenges are not merely economic but also psychological, with confidence being a critical factor in reviving the economy. The discussion touches on the role of precious metals in China, noting that Asian investors, particularly from China, Japan, and South Korea, have been significant buyers of gold and silver, viewing them as a hedge against low interest rates rather than just inflation. The conversation also explores the potential geopolitical shifts, particularly the mending of relationships between China, India, and Russia. Gave speculates that this trilateral cooperation could lead to a significant economic boom, driven by the complementary strengths of these nations. He compares this potential shift to historical reconciliations, such as the rapprochement between France and Germany after centuries of conflict. Gave introduces the Gavekal asset allocation grid, which categorizes economic conditions into four quadrants: inflationary boom, inflationary bust, deflationary boom, and deflationary bust. He argues that the current global economic environment is characterized by an inflationary boom, driven by loose fiscal and monetary policies. This context makes bonds a less attractive asset class, while commodities and equities are more favorable. In conclusion, Gave shares his belief that China's current economic situation mirrors the U.S. in 2009-2010, where weak growth and stimulus led to strong stock market performance. He suggests that this dynamic is often misunderstood, as many believe strong economic growth is necessary for a robust stock market. Gave's insights provide a nuanced view of China's economic trajectory and its global implications, offering valuable perspectives for investors and economists alike.

    55 min

  7. FEB 19

    Graham Summers: Why It’s Time for the Miners to Outpace Gold’s Gains

    During the podcast, Graham Summers, President and Chief Market Strategist for Phoenix Capital Research, discusses the current state of the Federal Reserve under Jerome Powell, highlighting several controversies and strategic moves. Summers notes that the Powell Fed has been embroiled in scandals, including insider trading by senior officials, which went unpunished. He also criticizes the Fed's shift in focus towards issues like climate change and racial discrimination, arguing that these topics are outside the Fed's mandate of managing inflation and employment. Summers is particularly critical of Powell's initial dismissal of inflation as transitory, which he sees as a politically motivated move to secure his reappointment. The discussion also touches on President Trump's attempts to control the Fed, including pressuring it to cut rates and replace officials like Lisa Cook, who was accused of mortgage fraud. Summers suggests that Trump's actions are strategic, aimed at securing more control over monetary policy, especially in light of potential political challenges in the midterms. He also discusses the appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, noting Warsh's historical opposition to aggressive monetary easing, which seems at odds with Trump's current stance. Summers further explores the economic implications of the Fed's actions, arguing that the current strategy of running the economy hot and trying to lock in low-interest rates is a strategic move given the high levels of debt and spending. He expresses concern about the potential for inflation to rise again and the economic impact of an AI-induced depression. Summers believes that while AI will significantly shift the economy, it is not likely to cause a jobs apocalypse but rather a transformation in how people work with technology. The conversation also delves into the market's reaction to AI, with Summers noting that AI stocks have been a significant driver of market gains but may be overvalued. He predicts a rotation away from the Magnificent 7 (Mag 7) tech stocks towards other sectors and hard assets like copper and lithium, which are essential for AI infrastructure. Summers sees this as a potential inflationary move and highlights the strategic importance of the AI arms race between the U.S. and China. He also discusses the role of gold as a safe haven asset, noting the recent tectonic shifts in gold's market dynamics and its potential as an investment.

    46 min

  8. FEB 18

    Keith Weiner: Avoiding the Beatings at the Hands of the Fed

    During the podcast, Tom Bodrovics interviews Keith Weiner, CEO and Founder of Monetary Metals, to discuss the 2026 Gold Outlook and the current state of the gold and silver markets. Weiner expresses that the gold market is in a bull phase, with prices exceeding his conservative targets. He attributes this to a global search for an alternative to the U.S. dollar, which, despite its flaws, is still widely desired. Weiner argues that gold is emerging as the ultimate settlement currency due to the failures of other candidates like the Indian rupee, Chinese yuan, and even crypto-currencies. Weiner also discusses the role of silver, which he sees as a monetary metal rather than just an industrial commodity. He notes that as gold prices rise, more people, especially those in lower-income brackets, are turning to silver as a more affordable store of value. This substitution effect is driving up silver prices and increasing its monetary demand. Weiner also touches on the concept of backwardation in the silver market, where the cost of hedging makes it difficult for refiners to process silver, potentially leading to a shortage. The conversation also covers the volatility in gold and silver prices, which Weiner attributes to the dollar's instability. He argues that this volatility is not conducive to the metals' use as money and that the recent price swings have been driven by speculative trading rather than fundamental demand. Weiner also shares his views on Bitcoin, which he sees as more of a speculative asset than a store of value, and the future of the U.S. dollar, which he believes is inevitable but not imminent. Weiner concludes by encouraging listeners to be curious and question the prevailing narratives, especially regarding monetary issues. He emphasizes the importance of verifying correlations and understanding the underlying data, rather than accepting platitudes.

    49 min

  9. FEB 12

    Chris Rutherglen: The Rate Cutting Cycle Is Not Over, It Will Drive Metals to Far Higher Highs

    During the podcast, Chris Rutherglen, a PhD scientist, engineer, CFA, and publisher of 'The Gold Investor Research' Substack, discusses his gold and silver price targets and the data-driven, fundamental, and technical arguments behind them. Rutherglen predicts that gold will reach a target of around $6,500 to $6,700 by summer to October 2024, before the mid-term elections. For silver, he expects a target of approximately $175, also within the same timeframe. He bases these predictions on historical cycles, the Fed Funds rate, and other economic indicators. Rutherglen explains that gold prices tend to rise during the declining phase of the Fed Funds rate cycle and peak around the midway point of this cycle. He also notes that the S&P 500 and real yields are leading indicators for gold's peak. Currently, neither indicator suggests that gold is at its peak. Rutherglen also discusses the money supply and its relationship with gold prices, arguing that the Fed's actions often do not align with their stated narratives. He also highlights the importance of the 10-year real yield, which tends to decline as gold prices peak. Currently, the 10-year real yield is still above 2%, suggesting that gold prices still have room to rise. Rutherglen also mentions the potential for a significant drop in gold prices after the peak, followed by a QE period where gold prices could reach even higher levels. Rutherglen also discusses the volatility in gold and silver prices, noting that increased volatility near the end of a cycle is normal. He suggests that the current volatility is not a sign of an impending crash but rather a sign that the market is getting closer to its peak. He also discusses the commitment of traders reports, noting that a decline in managed money traders' positions can be an early warning sign of a peak in gold prices. Finally, Rutherglen cautions against using simple price-to-earnings ratios for mining stocks, as they do not account for changes in production levels. He suggests using an instantaneous price-to-revenue ratio as a better metric. He also identifies B2 Gold as a potential investment opportunity due to its low production costs and upcoming changes in its production profile.

  10. FEB 10

    Doomberg: Passing the Turing Test of Authentic News vs Fake

    The podcast features a discussion between Tom Bodrovics and Doomberg, focusing on the future landscape of the world in the next decade, particularly from economic and geopolitical perspectives. Doomberg highlights the rapid advancement of AI, predicting significant changes in technology and society. He notes that AI tools are becoming increasingly accessible, democratizing technology and accelerating innovation, but also raising concerns about the lack of regulatory guardrails. Doomberg also discusses the impending shift in global power dynamics, moving from a US-dominated world to a multipolar system with competing powers like Russia and China. He argues that the US dollar's status as a global reserve currency is under threat due to geopolitical tensions and the increasing use of sanctions, leading to a potential bifurcation of trading systems. He also points out the strategic importance of gold as a neutral asset, especially in light of the freezing of Russian foreign assets. The conversation touches on the aging leadership in the US and the potential for younger, more dynamic figures to emerge. Doomberg expresses concern about the suppression of political talent and the ethical challenges of ascending to power. He also discusses the potential for significant changes in Canada, particularly regarding its energy policies and political stability, with a focus on the role of Prime Minister Pierre Poilievre. Doomberg shares insights on the impact of AI on energy production, predicting that AI will drive down the real price of commodities and enable new energy developments. He also discusses the challenges of navigating information in the digital age, highlighting the role of social media in shaping narratives and the potential for AI to exacerbate misinformation. The conversation concludes with a reflection on the consequences of AI on energy innovations and the long-term trends in commodity prices.

    1h 5m
  • 10 Episodes

4.7
out of 5
19 Ratings

About

This isn’t just another podcast—it’s a movement for thinkers, doers, and anyone ready to step up and become the best version of themselves, one skill at a time. Bringing you a wide range of content so come with an open mind and a sense of adventure!

Information

  • Creator
    Tom Bodrovics
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    10
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © All content is owned and copyright by Tom Bodrovics, All Rights Reserved.
  • Show Website
    Competent Man Podcast

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