The Competent Investor

Tom Bodrovics
  • 4.7 (23)
  • Investing
  • Updated Weekly

The Competent Investor brings you deep-dive conversations with the world's top investors, economists, and market strategists. Every episode unpacks the macro forces shaping markets, reveals actionable insights, and delivers conversations that compound your understanding of where capital is flowing.

  1. 23h ago

    John Johnston: Debunking the Tank Bottom Narrative and Oil Prices Going Forward

    Veteran commodities trader John Johnston, also known as JJ, provides a detailed rebuttal to the prevailing narratives of oil market scarcity, arguing that the recent price volatility was a paper-driven phenomenon disconnected from physical realities. He explains that the price spike to $120 in March was fueled by the purchase of 750 million barrels worth of futures contracts in a short period, a massive speculative position that has been unwinding for weeks, pressuring prices. In reality, inventories were at near-record highs entering the conflict, with little actual disruption to supply. The US itself is structurally oversupplied, producing millions of barrels per day more than it consumes, while global proven reserves stand at a staggering 1.7 trillion barrels, rendering talk of shortages untenable.Johnston deconstructs the concept of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), revealing that recent drawdowns were not sales but structured repo agreements. The government lent barrels to companies with a 25% payback due in the future, meaning those future obligations have already been hedged in the market. He dismisses the "tank bottom" narrative about Cushing storage as technically misleading, explaining that operational capacity is vastly underreported and that the current system’s high throughput velocity makes a logistical failure highly improbable. This underscores a broader principle: if a narrative is not validated by price action, it should be ignored, as market participants with vested interests, like oil producers, will never claim a surplus.Looking at the broader financial landscape, Johnston notes a shortage of dollars and a strong dollar environment acting as a headwind for commodities, with the market in a disinflationary liquidity contraction. Given this outlook, he sees no significant trade in flat oil price but suggests the long end of the Treasury curve offers value, expecting yields to fall. For equity exposure, he prefers gold miners and pipeline companies, which generate massive cash flows at current commodity prices, allowing him to comfortably weather volatility. Ultimately, he argues that market understanding comes from a position of detached amusement, not anxiety, and that the current oil market is a “great big nothingburger” that should be trading at lower levels.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:16 - Oil Market Perception vs Reality00:07:30 - Refiner Profits Analysis00:16:54 - Strategic Petroleum Reserve00:23:27 - SPR Dynamics00:27:00 - Tank Bottom Narrative00:32:22 - Oil Dynamics & Manipulation00:37:36 - Dollar and Macro Factors00:44:36 - BLS Data Reliability00:50:33 - Rates & Investment Strategies00:55:30 - Concluding Thoughts Guest:John Johnston — Veteran Commodities Trader & Substack PublisherJohn Johnston, known as JJ, is a veteran commodities trader with 48 years of experience. He began his career as a runner on Wall Street, became an account executive at Conti Commodities in 1976, and in 1977 purchased seats on the NYMEX and COMEX, trading from the pits for the next three decades.Over his career, he worked for firms including Drexel Burnham Lambert, Rudolf Wolff, REFCO, Mann Financial, The Standard Bank of South Africa, and ADM Investor Services.Through his Substack (jj745.substack.com), JJ shares a blend of old-school trading wisdom, selective technical analysis, market history, and lore. As he says, “I never try to be right. I try to be honest. I never want a reader to think what I think. I want the reader to know what I know.”Substack 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

    58 min

  2. 2d ago

    Jesse Felder: This is the Type of Setup You Look For as an Investor

    Recorded on: June 29, 2026Jesse Felder highlights a striking divergence in oil markets: physical inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, have plunged to multi-decade lows while demand hits records, yet institutional investors hold the most bearish positioning ever. This contrarian setup is amplified by the AI frenzy, which has drained interest from energy—despite the sector’s strong five-year performance. Insider buying in exploration and production (E&P) companies and an absence of commercial hedging signal confidence in sustainably higher prices. Felder argues that a decade of underinvestment due to capital flowing elsewhere, first to shale, then to ESG, now to AI has constrained supply, laying the groundwork for an oil supercycle targeting $120/barrel.Turning to gold, Felder notes that a needed correction has brought prices back toward levels suggested by real rates, with speculative froth easing. A pivot from the Federal Reserve toward rate cuts—should economic weakness emerge—could reignite a bull run. He warns that new Fed Chair Warsh’s attempt to walk back dovish policies and market handholding may be thwarted by the economy’s immense dependence on asset prices and record margin debt, which, as a share of M2, now rivals March 2000 extremes. The AI-driven equity rally is increasingly fragile. The Magnificent Seven’s once-dominant moats have eroded as they compete in overlapping fields, while free cash flows for hyperscalers have evaporated.The emergence of open-source Chinese AI models—offering comparable performance at a tiny fraction of the cost—threatens to slash demand for expensive compute. With training still accounting for most chip spending, any pullback in frontier model development could collapse semiconductor demand just as South Korea plans massive new supply. This dispersion and leverage echo past speculative peaks. To navigate these cross-currents, Felder emphasizes broad diversification, adding real assets, energy, and precious metals to traditional portfolios. Tactically leaning into out-of-favor areas with strong fundamental stories can provide resilience as the capital cycle rotates away from the most overcrowded trades.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:46 - Iran War and Oil Markets00:04:20 - Gold Leading Commodity Prices00:05:50 - SPR Refilling and Demand00:12:47 - OPEC Supply Dynamics00:18:57 - Attractive E&P Companies00:21:53 - Precious Metals and Gold Outlook00:26:29 - Fed Policy and Inflation Risks00:36:25 - MAG7 and AI Profitability00:43:35 - Cost of Compute & Open Models00:49:05 - AI Bubble Popping00:52:20 - Semis & Korea Performance00:53:30 - Safer Investing00:56:40 - Concluding Thoughts Guest:Jesse Felder — Founder, Editor, and Publisher of The Felder ReportJesse Felder is the Founder, Editor, and Publisher of The Felder Report. He began his professional career at Bear, Stearns & Co. and later co-founded a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund firm headquartered in Santa Monica, California. Since moving to Bend, Oregon in 2000 and founding The Felder Report shortly thereafter his writing and research have been featured in major publications and websites like The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Yahoo!Finance, Business Insider, RealVision, Investing.com, and more. Jesse also hosts and produces the Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom podcast.X Website Articles 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

    58 min

  3. Jun 25

    Robert Sinn: What If the Fed Doesn’t Hike this Year

    Tom welcomes investor Robert Sinn to the show. Robert attributes the recent sharp sell-off in the gold and mining sector primarily to a strengthening US dollar and rising interest rates, describing the current environment as a "perfect negative storm" for junior miners. He notes that sentiment has reached extreme negative levels, comparable to the March 2020 and October 2022 lows, with technical indicators like the gold miner bull index hitting zero. Sinn suggests these oversold conditions, combined with improving seasonal trends, may be setting the stage for a tradable low, presenting buying opportunities for quality miners that have pulled back to key support levels from late 2025.The discussion contrasts current market conditions with the early-year rally, where gold appeared to front-run geopolitical conflict. Sinn argues that the recent inflationary spike is transitory, driven by unique war-related oil disruptions that are now reversing. He contends the greater long-term threat is actually deflation, powered by accelerating technological advances in AI and robotics that could massively expand the supply of goods and services. This outlook informs his view that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to hike rates despite market fears, a misinterpretation that has pressured gold.Sinn emphasizes relying on technical analysis and price action to filter out pervasive market noise and propaganda, especially during the recent Iran conflict. This approach prevented poor, fear-driven decisions in the oil market, which he now views as attractive again after the war premium evaporated. For mining investments, he focuses on catalysts across the sector lifecycle, from free cash flow in seniors to drill results and permitting milestones in juniors, citing Colombia-based Endina Copper’s consistent high-grade intercepts as a compelling example. He remains confident that precious and base metals are in a secular bull market, viewing the current correction as a classic shakeout within a long-term uptrend.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:02:48 - Dollar Impact on Mining00:05:21 - Gold's January Performance00:08:50 - Oversold Sentiment Concerns00:09:48 - Deflationary Pressures Ahead00:14:48 - Fed Policy Uncertainty00:18:24 - Dollar Strength Analysis00:23:40 - Technical Analysis Focus00:29:23 - Mining Entry Opportunities00:31:50 - Oil Sector Investments?00:33:14 - Copper and Metal Fundamentals00:37:21 - Company Evaluation Criteria00:47:04 - Concluding Thoughts Guest:Robert Sinn — Investor, Trader, Market Commentator, and Author of the Gold Finger Capital SubstackRobert Sinn is a 20+ year market veteran whose research and insights are followed by hedge fund managers, investment professionals and thousands of readers/viewers across the globe. His introduction to the stock market came in 2003 when his Father shared a research note on a company called Northern Dynasty Minerals (NDM). Shares proceeded to rise more than 1000% over the next nine months. Robert was hooked, and the Junior mining sector became an obsession.Across his extensive career Robert has acted as a market participant, commentator and trader performing dozens of site visits, CEO interviews and generating a wealth of research spanning multiple market cycles.X Substack CEO.CA YouTube 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

    51 min

  4. Jun 18

    Steve St. Angelo: Gold and Silver Prices Face More Volatility With a Looming Deflationary Crash

    Steve St. Angelo, founder of the SRSRocco Report, discussed a wide range of fundamental factors impacting precious metals, energy, and the broader economy, cautioning against sensationalist price targets. He argued that the recent parabolic surge in gold and silver, driven by massive FOMO, leverage, and specific narratives like a supposed Chinese export ban, has resulted in a necessary consolidation phase.Current margins for miners are historically high, but a correction is likely not over, with technical gaps suggesting potential downside to $3,500 gold and $55 silver, especially during a broader market sell-off. A central theme was the fragility of energy markets. The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz serves as a preview of future constraints, with the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and Cushing inventories approaching critical functional minimums. This situation masks deeper issues, including opaque oil stockpile drawdowns in China.Steve predicted that higher oil prices will manifest in the near term, contributing to economic stress. He identified the AI bubble as the primary catalyst for an impending recession, far more destructive than the dot-com crash, as trillions of dollars in data center buildout risk becoming stranded assets. The popping of this bubble, combined with liquidations by fundamentally unprofitable Bitcoin mining companies, is expected to trigger a significant deflationary wave. In this environment, St. Angelo sees investment demand, not industrial or central bank buying, as the ultimate long-term driver for silver, which will protect wealth as other financial assets suffer from peak energy constraints.He also highlighted the market’s dysfunctional reality, noting that a spike to $300 silver would likely break the bullion dealer system, creating a liquidity crisis where sellers massively outnumber buyers.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:58 - Gold Silver Prod.  Costs & C.B.00:04:23 - China Oil Inventory Drawdowns00:05:49 - Strategic Petroleum Reserve Analysis00:09:44 - Oil Inventory Timeline Risks00:14:56 - AI Bubble and Recession Risks00:19:43 - Federal Reserve Policy Challenges00:24:04 - Precious Metals Miner Margins00:26:00 - Gold Silver Risk Asset Behavior00:28:26 - Future Gold Silver Outlook00:35:03 - Trading Silver For Gold Oz.00:42:51 - Bitcoin Miner Economics00:49:18 - Concluding Thoughts Guest:Steve St. AngeloIndependent researcher Steve St. Angelo (SRSrocco) started to invest in precious metals in 2002. Later on in 2008, he began researching areas of the gold and silver market that, curiously, the majority of the precious metal analyst community have left unexplored. These areas include how energy and the falling EROI – Energy Returned On Invested – stand to impact the mining industry, precious metals, paper assets, and the overall economy.Steve considers studying the impacts of EROI one of the most important aspects of his energy research. For the past several years, he has written scholarly articles in some of the top precious metals and financial websites.You can find many of Steve’s articles on noteworthy sites, such as GoldSeek-SilverSeek, Market Oracle, Financial Sense, GoldSilver.com, SilverDoctors, TFMetals Report, Outsiderclub, SGTreport, BrotherJohnF, Hartgeld, Der-klare-blick, PeakProsperity, SilverStrategies, DollarCollapse, FurtureMoneyTrends, Sharpspixley, FinancialSurvivalNetwork, Pmbull, Deviantinvestor, PmBug, Wealthwire, and ZeroHedge.#PreciousMetals #GoldSilver #EnergyCrisis #OilPrices #SPRInventory #CentralBanks #InvestmentDemand #SilverMining #GoldMining #AIBubble #MarketCrash #DeflationaryWave #BitcoinMining #PeakEnergy #WealthProtectionX Website YouTube 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

  5. Jun 17

    Lobo Tiggre: Capitalizing On Opportunities in the Resource Sector: Finding the Undervalued Gems

    Lobo Tiggre, author and founder of the Independent Speculator, joined your host Tom Bodrovics to discuss the complex interplay of geopolitics, monetary policy, and commodity markets. Lobo argued that the war in the Middle East, while not inherently inflationary, fuels inflation through the government’s response—specifically, massive deficit spending and money printing to finance the conflict. He warned that this pattern of "profligacy" historically dethrones currencies and ends empires, placing new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in an impossible position between political pressure to cut rates and the economic need to fight inflation.Recorded on: June 16, 2026Some Competent Links:Website: https://competentinvestor.comSubstack: https://competentmanpod.substack.com/X: https://x.com/CompetentInvRumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-7699939The conversation then shifted to market opportunities. Lobo, a self-described "wolf" hunting for low-risk entries, revealed he sold all his gold and silver stocks near the January peak, not from bearishness but from disciplined profit-taking. He is now eyeing the oil sector, anticipating that a potential peace deal could cause an overreaction and a sharp drawdown in oil prices, creating a compelling buying opportunity for quality producers. He remains long-term bullish on copper and uranium, citing structural supply deficits and the paradigm shift toward nuclear energy for 24/7 power and energy independence. However, he cautioned that an AI-driven market scare could put those sectors on sale as well.Tiggre also touched on the improving permitting environment for mining in the U.S. under the Trump administration, noting it creates an investable window before potential policy reversals. He discussed his research on "crappy producers," confirming they can outperform in a bull market due to margin expansion but require precise market timing to avoid devastating drawdowns. Ultimately, Tiggre emphasized a disciplined, contrarian approach: patiently waiting for clear "buy low" opportunities across commodities rather than chasing momentum, and using tools like selling puts to enter positions at advantageous prices.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:52 - Fed Policy and War Impact00:05:42 - Peace Deal Prospects00:12:37 - Supply Chain Rerouting00:15:20 - SpaceX IPO Valuations00:22:34 - Taking Profits?00:29:08 - Gold Sentiment & Opportunity00:37:53 - Demand For Metals & Permitting00:41:14 - Bull Markets & Miner Performance00:46:12 - Oil Sector Strategy00:49:23 - Copper Market Constrained?00:51:55 - Uranium Market Thoughts00:59:40 - Concluding ThoughtsGuest Links:Website: https://independentspeculator.comX: https://x.com/duediligenceguyFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/louis.james.965580/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lobotiggre/Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name "Louis James." While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey.Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record.A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of the IndependentSpeculator.  Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has "skin in the game" with them.#Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #FederalReserve #OilMarket #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics #Investing #Gold #Silver #Uranium #Commodities #StockMarket #AITechnology #MarketAnalysis Guest:Lobo Tiggre — Author & Founder of the Independent SpeculatorLobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name "Louis James." While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey.Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record.A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of the IndependentSpeculator. Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has "skin in the game" with them.Website X Facebook LinkedIn 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

    1h 4m

  6. Jun 11

    Michael Green: The Resolution to America's Debt Problem| Restoring Balance With Bond Market Reforms

    Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, presents a contrarian view on bonds, arguing they are now an attractive investment due to three factors.First, the dominance of passive bond indices creates mechanical distortions, as market-cap weighting leads to misallocation during interest rate changes, undermining price discovery.Second, broad inflation has largely ended, with demographics and high short-term rates pushing conditions toward deflation, while many confuse ongoing price-level increases with inflation.Third, equities face high valuations and concentration risk, making bonds a safer option for income, especially for retirees. Green explains how banks’ "hold to maturity" bond holdings, trapped by unrealized losses from rate hikes, restrict credit provision. He proposed to the Treasury replacing these bonds at current coupons to free capital without a bailout, reducing systemic stress. He warns that monetary policy now acts as fiscal stimulus due to high debt-to-GDP, making rate cuts potentially contractionary and risking a crisis in housing and credit markets.Green dismisses ideas like gold revaluation or gold-backed bonds as ineffective fantasy, emphasizing that bond market dysfunction is a global Western phenomenon tied to passive investing. He notes upcoming IPOs like SpaceX may increase equity supply and pressure valuations, but their scale is manageable compared to 2000. Ultimately, Green urges investors to recognize how bonds have shifted and to seek education on economic realities, advocating for forward-looking policy that improves infrastructure rather than reacts to crises.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:15 - Non-Consensus View on Bonds00:01:55 - Understanding Inflation Properly00:03:48 - Why Bonds Are Interesting Now00:05:45 - Banking System Bond Problems00:07:57 - Treasury Proposal to Free Capital00:12:11 - Passive Investing Distortions00:21:52 - Risks of Impending Crisis00:28:01 - Federal Reserve Policy Challenges00:35:07 - Inflation Impact on Consumers00:44:26 - IPOs and Market Supply Issues00:55:10 - Concluding Thoughts Guest:Michael Green — Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset ManagementMichael is Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management. Michael has been noted for his work as a market theoretician and financial media participant. He is a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania and a CFA holder.Substack X 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

    58 min

  7. Jun 10

    Craig Tindale: The Falling Dominos that are Leading to a Civilizational Reset

    Craig Tindale argues that the current global instability stems from humanity's tendency to mistake its complex models for reality. He explains that systems like central banking and globalized supply chains were built on narrow metrics, such as price efficiency, while ignoring broader consequences like sovereignty and resilience. This "delusional" approach led to the offshoring of industrial capacity, creating critical dependencies that are now being exposed. He draws a parallel with climate models, noting how specialized scientific silos fail to capture integrated system dynamics, such as how shipping fuel regulations reduced cloud cover and increased ocean heating.The discussion highlights how blockages in key chokepoints, like the Strait of Hormuz, are triggering cascading downstream effects that the "just-in-time" global economy cannot easily absorb. Tindale details the often-overlooked petrochemical supply chain, explaining how disruptions in products like naphtha and sulfuric acid will take months to materialize into shortages for fertilizers, plastics, and metal refining. This delayed reaction, he notes, creates a false sense of security that does not fit political or market cycles.On the economic front, Tindale predicts a necessary end to the era of perpetual asset inflation and consumption driven by the wealthy. He believes the US dollar will evolve rather than collapse, likely becoming more of a transactional currency as nations form competing blocs and gravitate toward a commodity-backed system. He criticizes the dominant geopolitical narratives of short wars and national primacy, suggesting that major powers like the US and China are locked in a checkmate that will damage all involved, with smaller nations suffering the worst consequences. Ultimately, he advises cultivating personal resilience, community, and a capacity to tolerate uncertainty rather than seeking definitive predictions.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:40 - Models and Civilizational Renewal00:08:36 - Understanding Climate Models00:14:34 - Borrowing from the Future00:17:17 - Just-in-Time Inventory Issues00:22:00 - Downstream Oil Consequences00:32:50 - Market Responses to Closures00:38:10 - Dollar and Bond Impacts00:46:50 - Potential for More Conflicts00:51:50 - New Reserve Currency Basket01:00:40 - Finding Credible Information01:05:42 - Wrap Up Guest:Craig Tindale — Private Investor and Publish of the CTindale SubstackCraig Tindale is a private investor who has spent nearly four decades working in software development, business strategy, and infrastructure planning, including in leadership positions at Telstra, Oracle, and IBM. Additionally, he has direct experience working in east-to-west supply chains, including as the CEO and Asia Regional Director for DataDirect Technologies.He’s now pivoted to investing in groundbreaking ideas such as drone reforestation through Air Seed Technologies, and uses his knowledge of Chinese industrial strategy and Western tech demand to identify the choke points in Critical Metals markets. Most recently he released the white paper, Critical Materials: A Strategic Analysis, which offers a systems synthesis on how the race for rare earths and the return of material constraints is shaping geopolitical relationships.Substack X LinkedIn 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

    1h 7m

  8. Jun 6

    Michael Kao: Navigating the Tightrope Between Stagnation and Inflation

    Michael Kao, a former hedge fund manager and commodities trader, joined host Tom Bodrovics to discuss his view that the economy is walking a tightrope between two starkly different outcomes. Kao outlined a framework with four macro quadrants, defining a "Goldilocks" scenario of disinflationary growth and a "stagflationary" environment of slow growth with high inflation. His original thesis for the Trump 2.0 playbook anticipated the Goldilocks path, powered by AI-driven productivity and reshoring initiatives he calls a "reverse Marshall Plan," which could reduce the deficit much like the mid-1990s. This outlook has been severely disrupted by the unexpected Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has injected a supply-side inflationary shock into the system. This oil-led inflation is demand-destructive, essentially acting as a tax on consumers, and differs from the demand-led inflation of 2021.A tour of current macro indicators highlights this tension: inflation measures (CPI, PPI, PCE) are rising, while labor and headline growth metrics remain surprisingly resilient. However, the consumer is being squeezed, with retail sales, spending, and consumer confidence declining alongside a sharp rise in inflation expectations. Kao warns that many downstream inflationary effects, especially in food and petrochemicals, have yet to fully materialize. He believes the Federal Reserve is effectively "boxed," with no good case for either cutting rates and stoking inflation or hiking into a supply shock that is already hurting consumers. Despite the short-term turmoil, Kao remains optimistic that powerful secular deflationary forces from AI will ultimately reassert themselves. He cited staggering examples of AI-driven efficiency that could anchor long-term growth.For positioning, he personally seeks safety in diversified, uncorrelated streams of passive income from assets like oil and gas private equity and idiosyncratic credit, avoiding a traditional passive beta approach. His parting thought highlighted the modern "fog of war," where deliberate obfuscation makes it crucial to watch market clues for what is truly transpiring beneath the geopolitical chaos.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:01:05 - Defining Macro Scenarios00:07:40 - Iran War Macro Impact00:10:22 - Tariffs and Demand Elasticity00:16:16 - Macro Indicators Overview00:21:25 - Consumer and Housing Metrics00:23:30 - PPI CPI and Data Trust00:27:38 - Federal Reserve Roundtable00:31:36 - Goldilocks Scenario Outlook00:35:53 - Oil Demand Destruction Risks00:42:18 - Fed Rate Policy Challenges00:46:07 - AI Productivity Boom00:52:55 - Investment Positioning Strategy00:56:06 - Urban Kaoberg Project01:03:00 - Concluding Thoughts Guest:Michael Kao — Private Family Office Investor & Author - Former Hedge Fund Manager & Commodities TraderMichael Kao is a seasoned investor and retired portfolio manager with 25 years of experience in commodities trading and hedge fund management. He has a lifelong passion for the markets and a keen interest in geopolitics, which has lead him to manage his own investments and publish his views on his SubStack Website – Kaoboy Musings. Known for his out of consensus calls that often wind up becoming consensus later on, Michael Kao strives to cut through the noise in his musings by introducing mental models from other disciplines and injecting ideas from eclectic topics. He aims to educate, encourage out-of-the-box thinking, elevate above the noise and entertain.X Substack New Platform 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

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4.7
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About

The Competent Investor brings you deep-dive conversations with the world's top investors, economists, and market strategists. Every episode unpacks the macro forces shaping markets, reveals actionable insights, and delivers conversations that compound your understanding of where capital is flowing.

Information

  • Creator
    Tom Bodrovics
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    99
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © All content is owned and copyright by Tom Bodrovics, All Rights Reserved.
  • Show Website
    The Competent Investor

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