Wilfred Frost sits down with macro strategist Luke Gromen, founder of independent macro research firm Forest For The Trees (FFTT), for a wide-ranging conversation on the growing fragility of Western sovereign bond markets, the economic fallout from the Iran war, and why he believes gold is quietly replacing US Treasuries as the world's reserve asset. Luke argues that markets continue to underestimate the implications of the Iran war, while acknowledging he underestimated China's ability to reduce its short-term oil import needs. The conversation turns to why rising western bond yields – not oil prices – are the bigger threat, with Luke laying out his "variant perception" that future risk-off events will trigger only brief yield declines before yields spike even higher as equities fall, a pattern he says has repeated since 2020. He details Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's roughly 4.4%-4.9% "pain threshold" on 10-year yields and warns that repeated policy retreats are steadily eroding US credibility as the backstop of the Treasury market. He is deeply bearish on long bonds and believes equity markets are exceptionally complacent in the short term. However, he argues that any major sell-off is ultimately likely to become a buying opportunity, as the Fed and US Treasury will prioritise Treasury market functioning over fighting inflation. His advice: de-lever, be prepared to buy the (significant) market dip and importantly, own gold. A central theme is Luke’s thesis that China isn't pushing the RMB as a dollar replacement – but rather promoting gold as the new global reserve asset in place of US Treasuries, using offshore yuan-clearing hubs in London, Switzerland, Dubai, and elsewhere to let trading partners convert RMB into gold. He cites China's accelerating gold import volumes and argues this dynamic points to a much higher long-term gold price, alongside a weaker dollar over time. The discussion concludes with where Luke is finding investment opportunities. He highlights US electrical infrastructure, including ETFs like PAVE and GRID, and Japanese industrial equities as key beneficiaries of reshoring and grid rebuilding, while cautioning that equity markets remain complacent near-term even as he stays structurally bullish long-term. His overriding message to investors is simple: stay unlevered, own some gold, and ensure you're positioned to survive the volatility ahead so you can take advantage of what he believes will be a highly bullish decade for equities. 0:00 Intro 3:00 Iran War impact underpriced 5:45 China has more leverage than realised 6:54 Rates will move higher until something breaks 10:55 Yield tipping points 15:18 LT supply-demand dynamic for USTs 22:08 The Fed will step in 24:04 UK, Jap, Ger, Fra all at risk 26:57 Equities extremely complacent 28:20 Equities rational in dollar terms 32:53 Dollar weakness vs gold not other currencies 36:06 Own gold 40:48 China’s surprising aim with gold 45:50 If gold beats USTs….buy stocks 47:48 Buy electrical infrastructure & Japan 51:43 Conclusion - deleverage, own gold, buy dip Sign up to Luke Gromen’s newsletter here: https://fftt-treerings.com/ Check out our podcast channel The Master Investor Podcast YouTube channel And follow @WilfredFrost on X and Linked In Sponsored by BNY Investments, Interactive Brokers - ibkr.com/masterinvestor, The World Gold Council and London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). The Master Investor Podcast is produced by Paradine Productions, Master Investor Ltd in association with Bird Lime Media. This podcast is for information purposes only. It does not constitute an invitation or inducement to engage in any investment activity. It is not a financial promotion as defined under section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (FSMA). The views expressed by the presenter of this podcast are those of the presenter and are provided in the course of journalism. This podcast benefits from the exemption under Article 20 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (FPO), It does not require approval by a person authorised under the FSMA. Generic information, not identifying any specific investment, fund, provider or service, about a class of investments such as shares, bonds, derivatives and cryptoassets, might be provided and/or discussed during this podcast. Such discussion falls within the generic promotions exemption (Article 17 of the FPO). Such discussion is not a financial promotion requiring approval by an authorised person under section 21 of the FSMA. Investing involves risk. You should consult a suitably qualified adviser who can assess your individual circumstances before making any investment decision.
