VREF | The Truth About the Aviation Market

Jason Zilberbrand
  • 4.6 (15)
  • Aviation

Up-to-date information on the state of the aviation marketplace and it's effect on aircraft valuation by the leader in aircraft valuation: VREF Aircraft Value Reference, Appraisal & Litigation Services

  1. 2d ago

    The Most Expensive "Peace of Mind" In Aviation | EP 56

    An owner has been paying into an engine program for 11 years. More than $1 million contributed. The airplane is worth roughly $3 million. And the overhaul those payments are supposed to protect him from is still four to five years away. So he asks: “At this point, am I buying protection—or am I funding somebody else’s overhaul?” In this episode:• Why engine-program enrollment should be analyzed as a financial decision—not treated as a universal virtue • The four contract details owners often overlook: funding structure, exclusions, transfer fees, and escalation • How a seemingly manageable hourly rate can become dramatically more expensive after years of compounding • Why the phrase “full coverage” may not mean what owners assume it means • Why transfer fees can act as retention mechanisms at the exact moment an owner wants to sell • What VREF data reveals about how common engine-program enrollment actually is • Why only about 26% of the broader business jet and turboprop fleet is enrolled • Why enrollment can rise to 75–90% in financeable midlife jet fleets • How lender requirements may explain part of the value premium associated with “on-program” aircraft • Why program concentration tends to follow the engine—not the airframe • How one provider can effectively control the enrolled population of an entire aircraft type • Why that creates market-structure risk when one renewal change can affect most of a fleet at once • What decades of transaction history show about enrollment gradually eroding as aircraft age • Why roughly one in five buyers walks away from a program at closing • How that behavior changed during the 2020–2022 cash-buying boom and shifted again as financing returned • Why some owners walk away astonishingly close to the engine event they spent years funding • The threshold test Jason uses to decide when continuing to pay may no longer make financial sense • How that decision changes depending on whether you’re a seller, keeper, or buyer • Why lapsing should be treated as effectively permanent • And the six questions every owner should ask their program provider in writing The bottom line:An engine program has: A term. A counterparty. An escalating payment stream. A transfer value. A risk exposure. And a break-even. You run the math on every other major aircraft expense. Run it on your engines too. For current aircraft values, enrolled-versus-unenrolled value adjustments, operating costs, historical trends, fleet data, and independent appraisal services, visit VREF.com. Get Your Free Special Report on The Engine Program Market here: https://vref.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/VREF-Special-Report-The-Engine-Program-Market-Aug-2026.pdf The market doesn’t care what you paid in. It only cares what the promise is worth. Fly safe. Stay smart.

  2. Sep 1

    The Market Split In Half: The Numbers Don't Lie | EP 55

    The September 1 VREF value revision is live—and the numbers tell a very different story than the broad “strong market” or “weak market” headlines. Business jet transaction volume is down nearly 19% year to date, essentially returning to 2020 COVID-era levels. But prices didn’t simply fall with volume. They split. Across 658 business jet model years revised by VREF: 421 moved down. 230 moved up. 7 stayed flat. And the dividing line isn’t simply light, midsize, or heavy. It’s increasingly about which generation of aircraft you own. In this episode:Why business jet transaction volume has round-tripped to roughly COVID-era levelsLight jet volume down approximately 18%, midsize down 25.5%, and heavy down 13%Why Jason’s 2026 sequence—volume first, days on market second, price last—has now played outHow legacy midsize values fell roughly 5.1%, with 122 out of 122 model years moving lowerWhy current-production super mids moved the opposite direction, rising about 4.1%How current-production large-cabin flagships gained nearly 7% while prior-generation large-cabin aircraft declinedWhy the market is effectively repricing obsolescenceHow the “age penalty” is shrinking for some large-cabin aircraft while growing for older light and legacy midsize jetsWhy a 15-year-old Global can appreciate while a similarly aged Citation or Hawker loses valueHow two aircraft both labeled “midsize” can be moving almost nine percentage points apartWhy broad weight-class averages can describe an airplane that doesn’t actually existWhat rising days on market and weaker transaction volume reveal about the buyer-seller standoffWhy midsize is becoming the canary in business aviation’s coal mineHow fractional ownership, charter growth, financing sensitivity, and corporate caution may be permanently removing some buyers from whole-aircraft ownershipWhat the September revision means for sellers, buyers, lenders, insurers, and fleet planners For sellers of legacy aircraft, the conversation has changed. Buyers are no longer negotiating only against opinion—the published values are beginning to move to their side of the table. At the top of the market, the opposite is happening. OEM backlogs and limited availability are pushing buyers toward current-production and late-model aircraft—and they’re paying for the privilege. That means the old question— “How’s the market?”—is becoming almost useless. The better question is: “What is happening to my model, my generation, and my model year?” Because as of September 1, there is no single aircraft market. There are winners. There are losers. And the gap between them is getting wider. For the latest aircraft values, historical trends, operating costs, fleet data, and transaction-based market intelligence, visit VREF.com. The market doesn’t care what you paid. It only cares what it’s worth. And as of September 1, it changed its mind about a lot of airplanes. Fly safe. Stay smart.

  3. Aug 27

    The Great Mooney Mystery: Six Questions The Record Doesn't Answer | EP 54

    Jason Zilberbrand found something unusual on an ordinary corporate website: Luscombe Mooney Aircraft Company. Two historic general aviation brands. One masthead. Mooney’s address. Mooney’s phone number. Mooney’s domain. But no major announcement explaining how the two names came together. So Jason went looking for the paper trail. In Episode 54 of The Truth About the Aviation Market, he reconstructs the timeline using public records, trade reporting, an auction listing, court filings, and company websites—separating what the record clearly shows from what remains unconfirmed. There are no allegations in this episode. The story is about transparency, ownership, parts support, and what happens to aircraft values when material information becomes difficult for owners to see. In this episode:Why a dormant aircraft manufacturer can still represent a valuable business even when new airplanes are no longer rolling off the lineWhy Jason argues “the factory isn’t the asset—the fleet is”How roughly 11,000 existing Mooneys create ongoing demand for parts, maintenance, tooling, and technical supportWhat was publicly announced in January 2026 about rebuilding Mooney’s parts operation—and why the language of “stewardship” rather than ownership mattersHow Luscombe and Mooney later appeared together under one company identity at Mooney’s Texas addressWhat happened when the Luscombe factory, type certificate, STCs, tooling, fixtures, and inventory were offered at auction in December 2024Why combining legacy aircraft brands may make more sense as an industrial and aftermarket strategy than as an attempt to restart high-volume aircraft productionThe potential four-part business model Jason sees: aftermarket parts, MRO, prime subcontracting, and type certificates as assetsWhy parts availability may be one of the most important drivers of residual value in an out-of-production fleetHow a 30% parts-price increase could be supportive if availability improves—or damaging if owners simply pay more while lead times remain longThe four indicators VREF will be watching: parts lead times, days on market, ask-to-close spreads, and transaction volumeThe six major questions the public record still does not answer, including who acquired the Luscombe assets, who controls the relevant corporate entities, who currently holds the Mooney type certificates, and what operations are actually active today Every unanswered question could have a completely ordinary, legitimate explanation. That is precisely the point. Private companies are not obligated to issue press releases every time assets or ownership structures change. But when thousands of aircraft depend on a parts pipeline, type certificate, factory, or support network, a lack of information can still have real economic consequences. Because aircraft owners ultimately pay for uncertainty—in maintenance decisions, resale negotiations, financing, insurance, and valuation. Sunlight isn’t a courtesy in an asset market. It’s infrastructure. For current Mooney values, historical trends, fleet data, operating costs, and independent aircraft appraisal services, visit VREF.com. The market doesn’t care what the website says. It only cares what the record shows. Fly safe. Stay smart.

  4. Aug 21

    The "Ferrari Problem" Is Coming For Aviation | EP 53

    How does an entire market start pricing assets at numbers buyers have never actually paid? That’s the question behind Episode 53 of The Truth About the Market. And although Jason starts with Ferrari, this episode is really about airplanes. Because aviation has all the ingredients required to create the same phenomenon: thin transaction data, private closings, patient sellers, emotional ownership, and asking prices that remain visible while actual sale prices disappear behind confidentiality agreements. The result can be a market that looks expensive without ever proving buyers will transact at those prices. In this episode:Why asking price and market value are not the same thingHow a Ferrari benchmark around $657,000 can coexist with seven-figure listingsWhy the most visible numbers in an illiquid market may have the least evidentiary weightHow one optimistic seller can influence the next seller—and eventually an entire marketWhy Jason calls this process the listing cascadeHow “ask referencing ask” creates a consensus price without creating a clearing priceWhy active listings can eventually get laundered into appraisals, collateral values, and market narrativesWhy pricing an aircraft from unsold listings can produce a number with very little connection to an actual transactionWhy aviation’s public marketplace is structurally biased toward unsold inventory and aspirational pricesThe difference between a normal aviation ask-to-close spread and a market beginning to detach from realityWhy broad “the aircraft market is strong” narratives can hide major differences between individual segmentsHow new-aircraft backlogs differ from used-aircraft asking pricesWhy delivery-slot premiums may be one of the least price-discovered corners of aviation Jason also introduces a practical framework for identifying when ordinary seller optimism becomes something more serious. A wide spread by itself is not enough. Aircraft asking prices have always been optimistic. The warning comes when multiple market signals begin moving in the wrong direction together. And current VREF data gives that framework real context. Year-to-date business jet transaction volume is down nearly 19%. Light jets are down roughly 18%. Midsize jets are down approximately 25.5%. Heavy jets are down around 13%. Meanwhile, inventory has been climbing in parts of the market and aircraft are taking longer to sell. That doesn’t automatically mean prices collapse tomorrow. It may mean something subtler: Sellers are anchored to one market. Buyers are operating in another. The bottom line:An asking price is an opinion. A closing is evidence. If everyone is pricing their aircraft from airplanes that haven’t sold, the market can manufacture the appearance of value for a surprisingly long time. So before you buy, sell, finance, insure, or appraise an aircraft, ask a better question: What is actually clearing? Because quotes are free. Closings are facts. For current aircraft values, historical trends, operating costs, fleet data, and transaction-based market intelligence, visit VREF.com. The market doesn’t care what you’re asking. It only cares what sells. Fly safe. Stay smart.

  5. Aug 14

    The $2 Million Loss Your Insurance May Never Mention | EP 52

    An $8 million Citation CJ4 is sitting on a ramp. The owner isn’t flying it. He isn’t even in the country. A line guy hooks up a tug, gets distracted, and tows it into a hangar improperly. Forty seconds later, the damage is done. The aircraft is repaired correctly, returned to service, and made completely airworthy. But when it comes out the other side, it’s worth nearly $2 million less than it was that morning. That loss isn’t the repair bill. It sits on top of it. It’s called diminution of value—and it may be one of the most expensive risks in aircraft ownership that almost nobody explains until it’s too late. In this episode:• Why a legally minor event can create a six- or seven-figure market loss • Why the FAA’s definition of “substantial damage” and the market’s definition are very different • How tugs, cars, buses, hail, hangar doors, prop strikes, and ground equipment can destroy aircraft value without ever becoming headline accidents • Why paying cash for a repair doesn’t make damage invisible—it makes it undocumented • How insurers actually decide between repair and total loss • Why “repairable” means the repair makes economic sense for the carrier—not necessarily that it makes the owner whole • The critical difference between first-party and third-party claims • Why diminished value may not be covered by your own hull policy but may be recoverable when somebody else caused the damage • Why you should get an independent valuation before responding to the other side’s number • Why a clean damage-history report is useful—but not proof that an aircraft has never been damaged • How buyers should scope a pre-buy specifically to look for prior repairs and unexplained gaps in the aircraft’s history • How diminution of value is quantified using actual comparable closings rather than asking prices • Why repair quality, documentation, structural severity, financing availability, and buyer-pool size all affect the discount • Why newer, low-time aircraft can suffer a larger percentage hit than older airplanes with longer operating histories • When an aircraft owner should consider calling an aviation-specific attorney For independent aircraft valuations, diminution-of-value assessments, and defensible market data based on real transactions, visit VREF.com. Know what you own. Fly safe. Stay smart.

  6. Aug 8

    The "Red Hot" Jet That No One Is Selling | EP 51

    In this episode, we cover:• Why the Challenger 3500 has become the industry’s favorite proof that the super-midsize market is running hot • What Jason found after reviewing every recorded Challenger 3500 transfer • How many Challenger 3500s have been built • How many are currently in operation • How many are still awaiting delivery • Why none of the aircraft currently carry a public asking price • What zero aircraft for sale actually tells you—and what it does not • Why zero availability is evidence of limited supply, not automatically evidence of a specific market value • The difference between a successful new-aircraft program and an established pre-owned market • Why the Challenger 3500 earned its backlog • How the Challenger 3500 evolved from the highly successful Challenger 300 and Challenger 350 • Why the aircraft’s cabin updates, autothrottle, lower cabin altitude, proven wing, and established engine platform make it a low-risk product for buyers • Why product success and resale-market maturity are two different accomplishments • Jason’s experience buying and selling 27 new Challenger 300 delivery positions • What the birth of the Challenger 300 resale market looked like in real time • Why Jason describes current Challenger 3500 used-value estimates as “prenatal” • How a real resale market begins with listings, negotiations, price discovery, and repeat transactions • Why the Challenger 350 has a functioning market while the Challenger 3500 still has a waiting room • Why every current estimate of Challenger 3500 resale value depends heavily on analogy to the older Challenger 350 • How much of the Challenger 3500 fleet is locked inside fractional programs • Why aircraft in fractional fleets cannot simply be listed for sale like conventionally owned aircraft • How Flexjet, Airshare, and NetJets reduce the theoretical sellable fleet • Why the replacement problem discourages current owners from selling • How owners who waited years for a delivery slot may be unwilling to surrender their position and return to the back of the line • Why owners may hold an aircraft because replacing it is difficult—not because they believe it is appreciating indefinitely • How psychology contributes to the complete absence of public inventory • Why 325 recorded transactions initially looks like a highly liquid market • How 325 recorded transfers occurred across only 173 distinct aircraft • Why one aircraft delivery can produce two or three separate title records • How title can move through a manufacturer entity, lender, leasing company, operator, or customer • Why each step in a title chain may be recorded as a separate sale • How factory paperwork can inflate transaction counts without creating additional market events • Why the recorded transaction count reflects genuine deliveries but not necessarily owner-to-owner liquidity • How serial-number analysis exposes duplicate title movements • Why the seller on nearly every Challenger 3500 transaction was Bombardier or a related factory entity • Why nearly all historical activity was OEM-direct • Why most brokers discussing the Challenger 3500 market have never actually sold a pre-owned Challenger 3500 • The difference between observing Bombardier’s order book and participating in an actual resale market • Why factory delivery volume says little about what happens when an owner needs liquidity For current aircraft values, historical market trends, operating-cost data, and defensible aviation intelligence supported by observable evidence, visit VREF.com.

  7. Jul 31

    Aviation's Alphabet Mafia | EP 50

    In this episode, we cover:• What public IRS Form 990 filings reveal about executive compensation • The reported compensation of the National Business Aviation Association’s president and CEO • How additional compensation can appear separately from base compensation • Why a reported multimillion-dollar salary matters in a year when the organization recorded a multimillion-dollar deficit • How executive compensation grew over roughly a decade • Why a single year may be an anomaly, but a decade represents policy • What percentage of total organizational expenses went to named executives and officers • Why nearly one dollar out of every five in expenses going toward executive compensation deserves member scrutiny • How nonprofit executive compensation compares with airline CEOs, senior FAA officials, pilots, mechanics, and technicians • Why a trade association is not the same thing as a charity • What the 501(c)(6) designation means for organizations such as NBAA • Why membership dues are only one part of the association revenue model • How conventions, exhibit space, sponsorships, advertising, seminars, certifications, and vendor programs generate revenue • Why some aviation associations may structurally resemble event and product businesses that also perform advocacy • How a major convention booth can cost more than a used aircraft • Why members are often sold additional products after already paying annual dues • What public filings disclose about first-class or charter travel for key employees • What Schedule L disclosures can reveal about transactions involving insiders, relatives, or related businesses • Why Jason believes members should review those disclosures before automatically renewing • How compensation committees and volunteer boards approve executive pay • Why compensation consultants and selected peer groups can cause salaries to rise automatically • How benchmarking can replace judgment • Why the most important question may be who selected the organizations used for comparison • Why a board member willing to challenge the peer group can change the outcome • How executive compensation is presented across AOPA and its related entities • Why reviewing only one filing may provide an incomplete picture • How compensation can be distributed across an association, foundation, and affiliated organizations • Why transparency that requires forensic accounting is not meaningful transparency for the average member • How many individual pilot memberships may be required to cover one executive’s annual compensation • Why compensation questions become even more important when charitable donations are involved • What pilots and aircraft owners actually receive from organizations such as AOPA • Why the Air Safety Institute, medical services, legal programs, and airport advocacy provide genuine member value • How association advocacy has helped defend general aviation against user fees • Why lobbying for bonus depreciation and favorable aircraft tax treatment can produce real economic benefits • Why FAA reauthorization, state aircraft taxes, airport closures, and regulatory challenges require organized representation • Why effective lobbying is expensive—and why the alternative may cost members even more • Why this episode is not arguing that aviation associations should disappear For current aircraft values, historical market trends, operating-cost data, and defensible aviation intelligence, visit VREF.com. Fly safe. Stay smart.

  8. Jul 28

    The Jet That’s Worth More Dead Than Alive | EP 49

    In this mailbag episode of The Truth About the Market, Jason answers a question from Paul Bordeaux, Chief Pilot at Hargrove Engineers and Constructors: How should a buyer evaluate future demand for an out-of-production business jet? In this episode, we cover:• The most important question buyers almost never ask before purchasing a used business jet • Why today’s aircraft value tells you very little about your eventual exit • How to evaluate future demand for an out-of-production aircraft • What buyers should consider when comparing older Citations, Hawkers, Learjets, and other legacy jets • Why some discontinued aircraft remain desirable while others become effectively orphaned • What must remain true for buyers to still want your aircraft five years from now • Why the engines become the central story as a business jet ages • How two engines can eventually become worth more than the airframe, avionics, paint, and interior combined • Why the value equation often begins changing once a business jet reaches approximately 15 years of age • Why engine condition and program enrollment become the first questions asked by brokers, appraisers, lenders, and informed buyers • How engine maintenance programs such as MSP, ESP, CorporateCare, TAP, and JSSI work • Why an engine program is not necessarily about saving money • Why the house still prices the maintenance risk correctly • What engine programs actually provide: budget stability and protection from catastrophic surprises • What it feels like to receive a hot-section or overhaul bill on an aircraft that is not enrolled • How engine programs allow aging engines to be treated financially as though they have zero time remaining • Why the airframe depreciates while fully enrolled engines can remain financially frozen in time • Why engine program status can determine whether an older jet is desirable, difficult to sell, or destined for part-out • Why a low acquisition price does not necessarily mean a low-cost airplane • Why the cheapest aircraft in a model fleet may carry the greatest long-term financial risk • Why future engine events must be included in the purchase decision—not treated as someone else’s problem • Why parts availability, maintenance expertise, and manufacturer support can matter more than performance specifications • How lawsuits, service disputes, manufacturer decisions, and support interruptions can affect an entire aircraft type • Why lenders become more cautious as maintenance uncertainty increases • How insurance availability and operating restrictions can change an aircraft’s buyer pool • Why a technically airworthy aircraft may still become commercially undesirable • How the number of active buyers affects liquidity and eventual resale value • Why a strong aircraft today can become difficult to exit when the next generation of buyers wants something different • Why installing an expensive upgrade does not guarantee that the market will repay you • How to distinguish a genuine value opportunity from a depreciating maintenance liability • Why buyers should study fleet trends, transaction volume, days on market, and support infrastructure before signing a purchase agreement • Why your exit strategy should be part of the acquisition strategy from day one For accurate, defensible aircraft valuations, residual-value forecasts, operating-cost data, and market intelligence trusted by lenders, insurers, attorneys, operators, and aviation professionals worldwide, visit VREF.com. Make decisions based on facts, not feelings. Fly safe. Stay smart.

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Up-to-date information on the state of the aviation marketplace and it's effect on aircraft valuation by the leader in aircraft valuation: VREF Aircraft Value Reference, Appraisal & Litigation Services

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