Guys Who Think They Know Ball

The Guys Who Think They Know Ball
  • 5.0 (2)
  • Football

An NFL podcast by two guys who THINK they know ball. Available on all platforms.

  1. Nov 4

    WK9 Trade Targets & Waiver Wire

    Run of show Four segments, about 60 minutes. Stats are 2026 through Week 8 unless noted. Books numbers are each game's player prices turned into PPR. Dynasty values are the Nov 3 superflex board. # Segment Time Who we hit The one-liner 1 Trade targets: redraft 25 min London, Bijan, Jefferson, Olave, Collins, Javonte, McMillan, Parker Washington, Egbuka, McConkey, Stroud, Dak, Stafford, Davante, Tate Buy usage the books still price high, from managers staring at a bad box score 1b Trade targets: dynasty desk 8 min Michael Wilson, Chase Brown, Pickens, Burden; Watson, Gesicki, Vele Buy expected points that haven't scored; move scoring that outran its role 2 Waiver wire 15 min Mike Washington Jr., Allgeier, Antonio Williams, Emmett Johnson, Texans D/ST, Adonai Mitchell, Gesicki, Willis + deep adds Two backfields just opened; bid on the work, not the box score 3 Around the league 10 min QB chaos (BAL, ARI, PHI), IR wave, Week 9 slate, market movers Three teams are on backup QBs; the books moved fast 4 Lightning round 5 min Niche stats good and bad, hot takes One stat each, then a take Housekeeping to mention: Steelers and Titans are on bye. Thursday is Jaguars at Ravens (Joe Fagnano at QB for Baltimore). Sunday opens at 9:30 a.m. ET with Bengals vs. Falcons in Madrid, the highest total on the slate (52.5). Segment 1: Trade targets The whole segment is one idea: buy players the books still price as starters, from managers looking at a bad box score. Backing it up: from 2023 to 2025, WRs who beat their books' number by 3+ PPR a game in Weeks 1-8 scored right at the price afterward (10.5 vs 10.4 priced). The price is the anchor; the box score moves around it.

    WK9 Trade Targets & Waiver Wire

  2. Nov 1

    WK8 Fantasy Football Start/Sit

    GWTTKB Week 8: lines, totals and our PPR projection for every player. BAL@BUF (BUF -3, o/u 54.5) BAL: Lamar Jackson 19, Derrick Henry 17, Justice Hill 6, Zay Flowers 18, Ja'Kobi Lane 8, Rashod Bateman 7, Mark Andrews 9 BUF: Josh Allen 24, James Cook 16, Ty Johnson 6, DJ Moore 13, Keon Coleman 8, Dalton Kincaid 11 TEN@CIN (CIN -12.5, o/u 46.5) TEN: Tony Pollard 14, Michael Carter 6, Wan'Dale Robinson 13, Elic Ayomanor 9, Calvin Ridley 6, Gunnar Helm 7 CIN: Joe Burrow 21, Chase Brown 17, Samaje Perine 7, Ja'Marr Chase 20, Tee Higgins 16, Dohnte Meyers 5, Mike Gesicki 8 ARI@DAL (DAL -7, o/u 54.5) ARI: Jacoby Brissett 18, Jeremiyah Love 11, Bam Knight 6, Michael Wilson 14, Kendrick Bourne 10, Trey McBride 20 DAL: Dak Prescott 21, Javonte Williams 18, Tyler Goodson 5, CeeDee Lamb 20, George Pickens 15, Ryan Flournoy 10, Jake Ferguson 6 MIN@DET (DET -3.5, o/u 46) MIN: Kyler Murray 17, Jordan Mason 9, Aaron Jones 8, Justin Jefferson 17, Jordan Addison 10, Jauan Jennings 5, TJ Hockenson 11 DET: Jared Goff 17, Jahmyr Gibbs 23, Amon-Ra St Brown 19, Jameson Williams 12, Isaac TeSlaa 6, Sam LaPorta 12 IND@JAX (JAX -10, o/u 46.5) IND: Daniel Jones 11, Jonathan Taylor 13, Seth McGowan 4, Keenan Allen 10, Josh Downs 9, Laquon Treadwell 6, Tyler Warren 11 JAX: Trevor Lawrence 19, Bhayshul Tuten 15, Chris Rodriguez Jr 6, Parker Washington 16, Jakobi Meyers 10, Josh Cameron 8, Brenton Strange 11 LV@NYJ (NYJ -1.5, o/u 45.5) LV: Kirk Cousins 15, Ashton Jeanty 16, Mike Washington Jr 6, Tre Tucker 11, Jalen Nailor 5, Brock Bowers 17 NYJ: Geno Smith 15, Breece Hall 14, Braelon Allen 12, Garrett Wilson 15, Omar Cooper Jr 10, Adonai Mitchell 7, Mason Taylor 7 CLE@PIT (PIT -3.5, o/u 39.5) CLE: Deshaun Watson 15, Quinshon Judkins 11, Dylan Sampson 7, KC Concepcion 12, Denzel Boston 11, Jerry Jeudy 6, Harold Fannin Jr 10 PIT: Aaron Rodgers 14, Jaylen Warren 16, Rico Dowdle 9, DK Metcalf 13, Germie Bernard 12, Pat Freiermuth 8 ATL@TB (TB -2.5, o/u 43.5) ATL: Michael Penix Jr 14, Bijan Robinson 21, Drake London 18, Jahan Dotson 7, Kyle Pitts 10 TB: Baker Mayfield 16, Bucky Irving 16, Chris Godwin 11, Ted Hurst 9, Tez Johnson 8, Cade Otton 10 LAC@LA (LA -6.5, o/u 45.5) LAC: Justin Herbert 15, Omarion Hampton 8, Kimani Vidal 7, Ladd McConkey 11, Tre' Harris 7, Quentin Johnston 7, Charlie Kolar 6 LA: Matthew Stafford 17, Kyren Williams 17, Blake Corum 10, Puka Nacua 22, Konata Mumpfield 6, Tyler Higbee 10 KC@DEN (KC -1.5, o/u 40.5) KC: Patrick Mahomes 15, Kenneth Walker III 19, Emmett Johnson 4, Rashee Rice 13, Xavier Worthy 9, Travis Kelce 12 DEN: Bo Nix 14, Jonah Coleman 13, JK Dobbins 6, Jaylen Waddle 10, Courtland Sutton 8, Marvin Mims Jr 5, Evan Engram 7 NE@MIA (NE -7, o/u 43.5) NE: Drake Maye 19, Rhamondre Stevenson 16, TreVeyon Henderson 7, AJ Brown 14, Demario Douglas 11, Efton Chism III 7, Hunter Henry 12 MIA: Malik Willis 15, Ollie Gordon II 12, Jaylen Wright 4, Malik Washington 12, Caleb Douglas 9, Chris Bell 6, Greg Dulcich 8 PHI@WAS (WAS -5.5, o/u 40.5) PHI: Tanner McKee 11, Saquon Barkley 13, Makai Lemon 11, Darius Cooper 8, Marquise Brown 6, Dallas Goedert 12 WAS: Jayden Daniels 18, Rachaad White 12, Austin Ekeler 4, Stefon Diggs 11, Antonio Williams 10, Treylon Burks 6, Chig Okonkwo 9 CHI@SEA (SEA -3, o/u 46.5) CHI: Caleb Williams 17, D'Andre Swift 16, Luther Burden III 13, Rome Odunze 10, Kalif Raymond 6, Colston Loveland 11 SEA: Sam Darnold 16, Zach Charbonnet 11, Emanuel Wilson 10, Jaxon Smith-Njigba 22, Cooper Kupp 8, AJ Barner 9

    WK8 Fantasy Football Start/Sit

  3. Oct 28

    Wk8 Trade Targets, Waiver Wire & Best Draft Picks So far

    GWTTKB Podcast: Week 8 The best draft picks of 2026 so far, the busts, who's slumping, who's balling, and the players we're buying right now. Every take is backed by usage, expected points and Vegas data. BEST DRAFT PICKS SO FAR - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (1.07): 28.0 PPR a game, the best WR start since at least 2016. 37% target share, 8 TDs. - Kenneth Walker (2.01): from 11.3 a game in Seattle to 24.6 in Kansas City. NFL-best +2.26 rush yards over expected per carry. - Christian Watson (6.06), Chuba Hubbard (8.02), Isaiah Likely (9.12) and Matthew Golden (11.08): the mid-round smashes. - Late-round heroes: Tyler Shough, Devaughn Vele, Denzel Boston, and Jared Goff with 14 TDs and 0 INTs. THE BUSTS - Saquon Barkley (1.11) and A.J. Brown (2.12) are both under 7 points a game. - De'Von Achane lost his job to Ollie Gordon II. - Omarion Hampton, Chase Brown, Breece Hall, Justin Herbert, Brian Thomas Jr. - Who to panic on and who to buy low. RECENT BAD PERFORMERS Bijan Robinson, Derrick Henry, Nico Collins, Chris Olave, Michael Wilson, Justin Jefferson, Travis Kelce, Patrick

    Wk8 Trade Targets, Waiver Wire & Best Draft Picks So far

  4. Sep 12

    NFL Week 1: Breakouts, Bounce Backs & Fall Offs

    Every player and offense in this episode was screened against a 646-player advanced analytics database, profile archetypes built on role, skill, production and context pillars, and team projection models that run 25 historical comparisons per player to estimate next-season target and carry share. No rankings-file reads, no vibes. Where the data contradicted the take, the data won — and we say so on air. What's covered Breakout candidates. Chase Brown's 94th-percentile target share and WOPR in the league's highest projected pass-volume offense. RJ Harvey's +16.7 receiving EPA against his −26.7 rushing EPA, and why Denver's response to that number matters more than the profile. Omarion Hampton's 87th-percentile snap share against comps that say young backs lose share under new offensive coordinators. Emeka Egbuka's four elite skill marks — receptions per broken tackle 99th percentile, YAC 92nd, air yards share 91st, WOPR 90th. Rome Odunze's ascending target share versus a comp set where every close match declined. Alec Pierce's +55.8 receiving EPA on 5.6 targets per game with a 1.2 percent drop rate. Quarterbacks. Drake Maye's 152-point passing EPA swing and the schedule effect underneath it. Caleb Williams going from −43.8 to +56.0 passing EPA in a single season. Jaxson Dart's nine rushing touchdowns on 86 carries and a projected volume jump from 24 to 30 attempts per game. Tight ends. Harold Fannin Jr., whose 1.747 composite z-score is the highest at the position in the entire database, with a 21.8 percent target share and a 97th-percentile share of intended air yards as a rookie. Colston Loveland's +49.8 receiving EPA. Bounce-back candidates. Lamar Jackson's rate stats never left — better rushing EPA per carry in 2025 than 2024 on less than half the volume. Saquon Barkley's 58-point rushing EPA reversal and a context pillar of 24. Ja'Marr Chase, whose target share went UP to 32.1 percent in a "down" year while his touchdowns halved. Regression candidates. Christian McCaffrey at 413 touches and age 30 with −25.9 rushing EPA and a share-projection confidence of 0.25. Puka Nacua's +129.7 receiving EPA — the single highest figure in the database — on a 68 percent snap share. Javonte Williams, a skill pillar of 17 and 3.0 yards per carry who finished RB16 on 11 touchdowns. Trevor Lawrence's nine rushing scores. Matthew Stafford's 52 touchdowns at 38. Offense-level segment. Why Indianapolis has the cleanest opportunity vacuum in football — full continuity at head coach, coordinator, quarterback, RB1 and TE1 while losing its WR1, with three pass-catchers projected above 17 percent target share at high model confidence. Why Pittsburgh addressed the exact diagnosable problem. Why Baltimore's run-game decline was game script rather than age. Why Tampa Bay's 2025 was an injury season wearing a decline costume. And why Denver can field a top-five offense while every individual fantasy asset gets worse — zero departures, one more elite mouth, and a receiving corps where nobody clears 16 percent projected target share. Metrics referenced: expected points added (EPA), completion percentage over expected (CPOE), pass rate over expectation (PROE), weighted opportunity rating (WOPR), target share, air yards share, yards after catch over expected, snap share, rushing yards before contact, broken tackle rate, red zone and goal line carry share, historical comp distributions. Weekly rankings, player cards and the full projection model: gwttkb.com — every weekly projection priced off live prediction markets rather than analyst opinion, with floor, ceiling and scoring probabilities from 1,200 simulations per player.

    NFL Week 1: Breakouts, Bounce Backs & Fall Offs

  5. Mar 13

    NFL Free Agency GOES CRAZY, Maxx Crosby IS NOT A RAVEN & Kyler Murray IS a Minnesota Viking

    The boys break down the most important moves in NFL Free Agency & discuss the Kyler Murray & Maxx Crosby news.

    NFL Free Agency GOES CRAZY, Maxx Crosby IS NOT A RAVEN & Kyler Murray IS a Minnesota Viking

  6. Mar 10

    NFL Free Agency Day 1 Summary

    NFL Free agency has started. We discuss all of the major moves you need to know.

    NFL Free Agency Day 1 Summary

  7. Feb 27

    NFL Salary Cap Insights In 2026

    NFL teams officially know their financial reality for the upcoming season. The league announced today that the salary cap will rise to $301.2 million per team, and that number is already reshaping free agency, contract extensions, and roster decisions across the NFL. In this episode, we break down what the NFL salary cap actually is (in simple terms), how it has exploded over the last 30 years, and why that growth has created a massive divide across the league. Some teams are positioned extremely well heading into free agency, while others are in serious cap trouble and facing difficult decisions. We dive into: • How the salary cap grew from $34M in 1994 to $301M today • Which teams are in the worst cap situations • Which teams have the most cap flexibility entering free agency • How teams like the Cowboys, Vikings, and Saints can realistically get compliant • Why restructures, extensions, and cuts are about to dominate the offseason This episode explains why NFL moves happen, not just what happens. Hashtags #nfl #nflnews #nflfreeagency #salarycap #nflsalarycap #capspace #freeagency #offseason #nflcontracts #nflbusiness #ArizonaCardinals #AtlantaFalcons #BaltimoreRavens #BuffaloBills #CarolinaPanthers #ChicagoBears #CincinnatiBengals #ClevelandBrowns #DallasCowboys #DenverBroncos #DetroitLions #GreenBayPackers #HoustonTexans #IndianapolisColts #JacksonvilleJaguars #KansasCityChiefs #LasVegasRaiders #LosAngelesChargers #LosAngelesRams #MiamiDolphins #MinnesotaVikings #NewEnglandPatriots #NewOrleansSaints #NewYorkGiants #NewYorkJets #PhiladelphiaEagles #PittsburghSteelers #SanFrancisco49ers #SeattleSeahawks #TampaBayBuccaneers #TennesseeTitans #WashingtonCommanders

    NFL Salary Cap Insights In 2026

  8. Feb 26

    Jets & Titans TRADE! (David Bailey & Rueben Bain Jr 2nd overall odds SKYROCKET + Anthony Richardson seeking trade from the Colts

    🚨 NFL OFFSEASON CHAOS IS HERE 🚨 The NFL offseason officially kicks off with the first trade on the board, and it’s one that tells us far more than it looks on the surface. We start with the Jets–Titans trade, breaking down why New York moved on from a starting edge rusher, what Tennessee is signaling up front, and how this deal gives us a real glimpse into where the NFL Draft is headed. From roster construction to cap planning, this move reshapes how the Jets should be thinking about the top of the board — and which defensive prospects actually make sense. From there, we dive deep into the EDGE discussion, including Rueben Bain Jr., David Bailey, and Akheem Mesidor — and why some popular mock draft names don’t align with basic roster logic. We also break down major betting market movement, showing how draft odds shifted immediately after the trade and why the market is reacting to team needs, not highlights. Then, we pivot to one of the most fascinating storylines of the offseason: The Colts granting Anthony Richardson permission to seek a trade. We go through Richardson’s full profile — career production, rushing upside, injuries, contract situation, and what it means that he’s entering the final year of his rookie deal. From there, we discuss the potential landing spots that actually make sense, what teams would be betting on, and whether the league still views him as a franchise swing or a reclamation project. This episode is all about roster math, draft logic, and reality — not narratives. #nfldraft #nflcombine #nfltrade #Jets #Titans #Patriots #Bills #Dolphins #Ravens #Bengals #Steelers #Browns #Texans #Colts #Jaguars #Titans #Chiefs #Chargers #Raiders #Broncos #Cowboys #Eagles #Giants #Commanders #Packers #Vikings #Bears #Lions #49ers #Seahawks #Rams #Cardinals #Buccaneers #Saints #Falcons #Panthers

    Jets & Titans TRADE! (David Bailey & Rueben Bain Jr 2nd overall odds SKYROCKET + Anthony Richardson seeking trade from the Colts
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Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
2 Ratings

About

An NFL podcast by two guys who THINK they know ball. Available on all platforms.

Information

  • Creator
    The Guys Who Think They Know Ball
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    23
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Guys Who Think They Know Ball 2026
  • Show Website
    Guys Who Think They Know Ball

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