This podcast was produced as part of the ministry of Orbis Sentry. For the video version of this podcast, click on the link below: Please note that the video contains images, many of which are AI generated for illustration, which are not included in the text below. So if you are interested in listening to this while seeing it illustrated, you might be more interested in checking out the video. April 9, 2026 Who wins a war? And what will be the economic effects? by George Olson We have certainly seen some geopolitical theatrics over the past few weeks. After President Trump threatened to completely annihilate the country and the people of Iran, on Tuesday evening, April 7, he announced that the war was on pause. Two weeks ago, the Trump administration had sent Iran a 15 point proposal on ending the war. Because of the condition of the Iranian government and difficulty in determining who is actually making decisions for the entire nation over there, we don’t know who might have read it and considered its points. In any case, earlier this week Iran apparently sent a proposal to the USA on ending the war. Iran’s news agency released a copy of what it said was their 10 point proposal, but then the White House said that they received a different proposal. However, it was on this basis of receiving any proposal, not the one in the press and not based on the content of what the proposal said, that Trump officially “paused” the war and a tenuous ceasefire began. Annihilation is now on hold for the next two weeks to give the two sides a chance to iron out their differences and scale down the conflict. So let’s look at the 10 points of Iran’s peace proposal that was released publicly: * A guarantee of no further US attacks against Iran. * Iran maintains control of the Strait of Hormuz. * Ending the regional war on all fronts, including against Hezbollah in Lebanon. * Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from all bases and positions in the region. * Reparations to Iran for war damages. * Acceptance of Iran’s right to nuclear enrichment. * Lifting all primary sanctions on Iran. * Lifting all secondary sanctions on Iran. * Termination of all resolutions against Iran by the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency. * Termination of all United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran.i If you read that carefully, it doesn’t look like an acknowledgment that the USA and Israel have won the war. It looks like Iran still has a lot of leverage, and they are demanding that the USA not only back off, but completely leave the area, and pay them war reparations. In addition, if the primary goal of the war was to completely dismantle Iran’s nuclear program, there is absolutely nothing in this proposal that indicates Iran has even budged an inch on this demand. If Iran was really a defeated power and they just wanted the American military to stop killing their soldiers and destroying their infrastructure, the proposal would look drastically different. You would be hearing them say, “Please stop, we will do what you say.” But that’s not the messaging that is coming from Iran. Instead, it is still defiant. Iran’s proposal reads like a victory proposal in which they, not the USA and Israel, are demanding the terms to end the war. The additional goal of regime change also seems to have failed, or at least it has not yet gotten started. If there was any indication of a rising civilian power in Iran actually threatening the rule of the IRGC,ii you would be hearing reports about it in all of the major news outlets. The mainstream media may not like the Trump administration, and they may skew the news to try and make him look bad, but they would not completely ignore a reality that is happening on the ground if it is actually there. The internal security apparatus of Iran apparently remains as strong as it was before the war started. The massive nationwide protests across over 100 cities in Iran back in January was so severely repressed, with tens of thousands killed by the regime, that it seems that there is no will among the population to rise up against their government. The IRGC and the Basij, who enforced the crackdown, have not fractured and remain as defiant as ever against the USA. There are no reports of military defections, which would be a key component for a revolutionary uprising to take root and succeed. So what have been the effects of the war? Here are some of the things I have observed. I am not making any judgments on this; just observing the facts. * The Iranian leadership from before the war was killed off, allowing a new crop of leaders to come to power. * The IRGC and the Basij remain in control, solidifying their grip on the entire country, and are able to solidly deter any uprising through severe repressive measures. * Iranian offensive weapons, as in missiles and drones, have been destroyed by the thousands. * We do not know how effective the destruction of production factories for the Shaheed drones and other missiles has been. * As far as we know, Iranian offensive missile capability against Israel has been significantly degraded for the time being. * We do not know what their capability will be to rebuild a missile arsenal, and we have no evidence that the material support and resupply efforts by Russia and China have been degraded. * The war was begun while an American team was involved in active negotiations for peace with an Iranian delegation. This signals to America’s enemies that American led negotiations will never be trustworthy, and could likely be considered a ruse to distract them before hostilities begin. * The enriched uranium fuel which was buried beneath rubble by bunker buster bombs last June remains unaccounted for. * The Strait of Hormuz has closed, sending oil prices significantly higher, putting stress on global trade relationships. * Sea mines that were laid in the strait are still there. Maritime insurance agencies don’t want to insure ships passing through the strait, which significantly raises the cost and reliability of shipping of any products coming out of that region. * Iran fully controls the Strait now, requiring a payment for permission to transit, whereas before the war it was free passage. * Based on various news reports, in April so far, maritime reporting agencies said that 11 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on the 7th and the 8th, and then 7 ships on the 9th, the first day of the ceasefire. So on the first day of the ceasefire, only 7 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz. This is compared to a pre-war average of around 130 ships per day transiting the Strait.iii * Petrochemical refineries and infrastructure all through the Middle East region have been damaged and taken off line. This has had a significant effect on the many products, including oil, natural gas, LNG, helium, ammonia, fertilizers, and others. * In particular, the impact on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is as follows. Qatar’s Ras Laffan refinery was damaged, taking 20% of global LNG production off-line. * LNG is critical for Europe and South Asia’s energy needs. * Fertilizer shortages are likely to have an impact on global food supply over the next year. * On April 9 (the day I started writing this), Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, after the supposed peace proposal negotiations started, said that Israeli strikes on Lebanon would render negotiations “meaningless.”iv Those are just a few of the facts. Thanks for reading Intersections with Orbis-Sentry! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Here is what the situation looks like to me. President Trump was hoping that an attack on Iran, because of the overwhelming firepower of the US military, would quickly topple the Iranian government and cause a civilian uprising. There are 2 factors internal to Iran it seems that he didn’t consider. First, the violent suppression of protests in January which killed anywhere from 15,000 to 30,000 Iranians likely scared the remaining Iranian people so badly that they have no fight left in them. They didn’t rise up against their own government. Second, the IRGC is so deeply embedded in all aspects of Iranian social, civilian, and economic life, that the act of killing off the leaders of the government would not have the effect of causing its collapse. The IRGC has been preparing for this kind of attack for years, and that is why they embedded themselves the way they did. There is no reason now to believe that the Iranian people are going to rise up and topple the IRGC or their government, especially now that a supposed ceasefire and negotiations have begun. This seems to have been a huge systemic and strategic failure on the part of the Trump administration when they were choosing to decide whether or not to initiate the war. In addition to the above, with the re-supply lines for armaments and munitions continuing from Russiav and China,vi we can expect that Iran will be able to re-arm and make more Shaheed drones and make more missiles over time, just like they did from last June until the start of this war. They also now have complete control over the Strait of Hormuz, and all of their adversaries in the region are economically crippled due to attacks on refineries. With the price of oil staying elevated, though it is not all the way up at 120 anymore, it could go there over time (the initial spike in the price was a reactionary event). If the ceasefire holds, the price could go up slowly on account of the significant reduction in supply. If the ceasefire fails and the war restarts, price will likely spike again. Regardless, damaged infrastructure will take years to rebuild. The fundamentals are in place for a rise in energy prices until these things work their way through the market. This is likely to cause a slowdown in economic activity over the entire world. Eventually this could result in a massive fall in energy prices
