Universal Basic Kalshi Guys

Evan Mandery
  • 4.8 (5)
  • Investing

A pair of long-time investors and social scientists navigate the prediction market with a focus on politics and the heuristic biases that derail most speculators.

  1. 22h ago

    Who Will Win the Texas Senate Race?

    McKenna returns & the UBK Gang discusses the unfolding Texas Senate race & related markets.

    46 min

  2. Jun 5

    The Epstein Files

    The UBK Gang explores the Kalshi markets for the release of additional data sets in the Epstein Files, and who will be named in them, if released.

    40 min

  3. Jun 3

    Who Will Win the NBA Finals?

    Evan, a Knick fan of 50 years, and Amir, who became a Knick fan last week, discuss the market for the NBA Finals and sports betting generally.

    36 min

  4. May 29

    How Much Will Democracy Weaken Under Trump?

    The UBK gang considers the Kalshi market for how much democracy will weaken over the remaining course of the Trump presidency, as measured by The Economist's Democracy Index? Plus a bonus exploration of how much democracy, democratic norms have already been eroded!

    1h 29m

  5. May 22

    Transgender Sports Bans

    The UBK Gang discusses state legislative limits on sports participation by transgender athletes and the Kalshi market for the upcoming Supreme Court decisions in West Virginia v. BPJ and Little v. Hecox, in which the Court will decide whether transgender sports bans violate the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment and Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

    51 min

  6. May 19

    An Early Look at the 2028 Republican Primary

    The UBK Gang takes a look at early trading in the market for the 2028 Republican primary, with close looks at the potential candidacies of Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, populist media pundit Tucker Carlson, and yes, President Donald J. Trump.

    50 min

  7. May 8

    An Early Look at the 2028 Democratic Presidential Primary -- Part 2

    In the second part of this two-part series exploring the market for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary , the UBK gang assesses the chances of the leading contenders, with a particularly close look at the markets for the 2024 nominee Kamala Harris, AOC, and the group's value play, Pete Buttigieg.

    1 hr

  8. May 1

    An Early Look at the 2028 Democratic Presidential Primary -- Part 1

    The UBK Gang take a first look at the 2028 Democratic primary, and explores the fundamental dynamics of a race in which Democrats face an incumbent, term-limited Republican president. Part 1 focuses on an examination of the long shot candidates -- those trading at five cents or less -- including Ruben Gallego, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Andy Beshear.

    1h 20m
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Ratings & Reviews

4.8
out of 5
5 Ratings

About

A pair of long-time investors and social scientists navigate the prediction market with a focus on politics and the heuristic biases that derail most speculators.

Information

  • Creator
    Evan Mandery
  • Years Active
    2K
  • Episodes
    22
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © 2026 Evan Mandery

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