Two weeks ago, Joe told listeners that new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh isn't a Keynesian — that Warsh had said, in public, that inflation is a choice. This week, Warsh named the people running his five internal Fed task forces, built to challenge fifty years of institutional orthodoxy. The most interesting name on the list isn't an economist at all — it's Marc Andreessen, the Netscape co-founder and Andreessen Horowitz venture capitalist, tapped to lead the task force on AI, productivity, and jobs. Joe walks through why that pick is a real signal about which theory of inflation this Fed is actually betting on. The mainstream Keynesian model says inflation comes from an "overheating" economy and the fix is to deliberately slow growth — the logic behind the Phillips Curve, which has run Fed policy for fifty years and which Warsh has already rejected. Joe lays out the alternative: inflation is the expansion of the money supply, and rising prices are just the symptom. Every price reflects two forces — money supply growth and real output growth — and if the real economy can grow faster than the money supply (through cheap energy, AI-driven productivity, and automation), prices don't have to rise much at all. That's the techno-optimist bet Andreessen has been making publicly for years, laid out in his 2023 "Techno-Optimist Manifesto." Joe traces Andreessen's path — Netscape in the 1990s, the ~$4.2 billion AOL buyout in 1998, founding a16z with Ben Horowitz in 2009, backing Airbnb, Coinbase, and GitHub — and is candid about where he agrees with the techno-optimist vision and where he doesn't: it comes down to who controls the technology. He also connects Elon Musk's claim of $1.5 trillion in annual federal fraud to the same thesis, and closes with the investment implication — if America is serious about an AI-driven productivity push, someone has to build the physical backbone underneath it: copper, silver, natural gas, uranium, steel, and concrete. In this episode: - Kevin Warsh's five internal Fed task forces, and why stacking them with outsiders is itself a signal - Why Marc Andreessen is leading the task force on AI, productivity, and jobs - Andreessen's path: Netscape, the 1998 AOL buyout, founding Andreessen Horowitz ("a16z") in 2009 - The 2023 "Techno-Optimist Manifesto" — what it argues, and where Joe agrees and disagrees - The real definition of inflation: expansion of the money supply, not rising prices - Why Warsh has already rejected the Phillips Curve and the "overheating economy" model - The two forces behind every price: money supply growth versus real output growth - Elon Musk's claim of $1.5 trillion in annual federal fraud, and how eliminating it interacts with money-supply growth - Why Joe thinks Warsh could cut rates sooner than the market expects - Structural inflation isn't going away — it's how the debt gets serviced — but a productivity-driven offset beats stagflation - The investment implication: copper, silver, natural gas, and uranium as the physical backbone of an AI-driven productivity push - "If you know what's happening, you'll know what to do" — the idea Joe credits to Dr. Gary North Join the next free Phoenician League public strategy session — July 22nd at 7:00 PM Eastern. Get on the email list at phoenicianleague.com/session for details. New episodes every week. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you listen — and join the Phoenician League newsletter at phoenicianleague.com for weekly macro investing analysis and real asset research.
