Duane Forrester Decodes

Duane Forrester Decodes

AI is rewriting how brands get found, cited, and trusted. Duane Forrester breaks down what that means for practitioners and marketing leaders who can't afford to get it wrong. duaneforresterdecodes.substack.com

  1. 3d ago

    The Keyword Universe Was Always Smaller Than We Thought

    The Keyword Universe Was Always Smaller Than We Thought AI answers are settling phrases, not ranking them. The space of real opportunities was never as large as the space of phrasings. Everything referenced in this episode: The GEO Tooling and Data Market Has a Trust Problem. The practitioner survey this episode responds to. Cross-model agreement audit, June 2026. 3,750 responses across three models and 250 category queries. Source of the 41.6 percent, 91.6 percent, 8 percent and 20 percent figures. Persona conditioning audit. 2,000 runs across ten buyer personas. Source of the 80 percent and 75 percent figures. Brand recognition experiment, Trine University and Texas A&M. One real brand against nine validated fictional ones with identical specs, across 670 trials. Google Search Central, AI features documentation. Google on query fan-out in AI Overviews and AI Mode. Kandpal et al., ICML 2023. Recall tracks how many relevant documents a model saw during pretraining. Mallen et al., ACL 2023. Scaling improves recall at the popular end and leaves the sparse end roughly where it started. Ahrefs featured snippets study. Click-through impact of snippets at the time. The Machine Layer. More on how these systems build and hold their picture of a brand. I run CitationIQ, an AI optimization data platform, so I have a commercial interest in the answers to things like this. Nearly all published measurement in this space comes from companies selling measurement, mine included. Hold every number loosely. If you are testing this against your own data and getting a different answer, I want to hear about it. Leave a comment or reach out directly. Get full access to Duane Forrester Decodes at duaneforresterdecodes.substack.com/subscribe

  2. Aug 9

    The GEO Tooling and Data Market Has a Trust Problem

    Show Notes: The GEO Tooling and Data Market Has a Trust Problem I surveyed 163 people who work on AI search visibility about the platforms built to measure it. They rate the underlying data at 4.20 out of 5. They rate paying for a platform at 3.19. When I asked what's actually wrong, price came fifth. Trust and ROI came first and second: 57% raised one of those two, against 7% who raised cost. This episode covers what they said, what their answers reveal when cross-referenced against each other, and one argument of mine about why the most common objection may have no answer at all. Method Fielded 14 July to 3 August 2026. N=163. Self-selected sample recruited through my own network, two newsletter sends, two industry newsletters, and paid promotion on LinkedIn and X. Not a probability sample, so it describes engaged practitioners in one corner of the industry rather than the industry. Roughly ±7 points at this size. 123 respondents (75%) wrote open text. Themes were coded by hand, and many people raised more than one issue, so shares add to more than 100%. Full numbers and methodology are in the written version. Disclosure I build in this category. That's a conflict, and it's most relevant to the section on what vendors can and can't publish about their own methodology. Everything presented as a survey finding comes from the responses. Where I'm making an argument of my own, I say so. Source IBISWorld, SEO & Internet Marketing Consultants in the US (NAICS OD4523, August 2025): 714,838 people employed across 362,753 businesses. That category bundles social and display in with SEO, so I use it as a ceiling on who could have answered, not as a count of GEO practitioners. Everything else comes from the survey responses. Coming next Two arguments I cut from this piece because they need their own space: what it means when every AI answer converges on the same thing, and why "snake oil" is three separate accusations wearing one coat. One question If you can't have a vendor's methodology, and you can't, what would make you believe a number? Nobody in 123 responses proposed an answer. I'd like to hear yours. Get full access to Duane Forrester Decodes at duaneforresterdecodes.substack.com/subscribe

  3. Aug 2

    Why Part of Your AI Authority Takes Years, Not Campaigns. And Why It Comes From Other People.

    Episode description "Influence the parametric side" sounds like something you assign to someone with a deadline. It isn't. This episode prices what actually sits behind that phrase: years of separate parties describing a company in their own words, most of it produced before language models were a consideration, by functions that report to marketing but never owned the output. Research from ICML, ACL, TACL, and Johns Hopkins on how training corpora become model knowledge, why volume of self-published content doesn't substitute for variety of independent description, and why the same property that makes parametric standing impossible to author is what makes it hard to lose. What gets covered ●      Why the cost of parametric standing isn't measured in years, and what it's actually measured in ●      The difference between training data and parametric standing, and why conflating them causes most of the confusion in this conversation ●      Kandpal and colleagues on document count and accuracy, including why a bigger model won't fix a thin footprint ●      Allen-Zhu and Li on why repetition from one source does not produce what variety from many sources produces ●      The corpus diffusion problem: the most common domain in C4 accounts for less than five hundredths of one percent of documents ●      Why polite crawling and robots.txt mean the busiest sites on the internet are underrepresented in training corpora ●      Effective cutoffs versus published cutoffs, and why a model's picture of a company is older than its stated date ●      The functions that built parametric standing, from PR and analyst relations to crisis communications and review operations ●      Why a company controls the review response but never the review ●      Knowledge editing research showing that even researchers with direct parameter access can't cleanly change a single fact ●      Why the same property that makes this impossible to author is what makes it durable Research referenced Kandpal and colleagues, on long-tail knowledge and pretraining document counts, ICML: arxiv.org/abs/2211.08411 Mallen and colleagues, on entity popularity and parametric reliability, ACL: arxiv.org/abs/2212.10511 Allen-Zhu and Li, on knowledge extractability and phrasing variation, ICML: arxiv.org/abs/2309.14316 Elazar and colleagues, What's In My Big Data, ICLR: arxiv.org/abs/2310.20707 Dodge and colleagues, documenting the Colossal Clean Crawled Corpus, EMNLP: aclanthology.org/2021.emnlp-main.98 Cheng and colleagues, on effective knowledge cutoffs, Johns Hopkins: arxiv.org/abs/2403.12958 Cohen and colleagues, on ripple effects in knowledge editing, TACL: aclanthology.org/2024.tacl-1.16 Common Crawl published crawl statistics: commoncrawl.github.io/cc-crawl-statistics/plots/domains Related The companion article to this episode, which drew the line between retrieval and parametric memory: Entity Mapping Works on Google. Does Any of It Reach ChatGPT? About Duane Forrester Decodes is published weekly at duaneforresterdecodes.substack.com. The Machine Layer is available on Amazon. Get full access to Duane Forrester Decodes at duaneforresterdecodes.substack.com/subscribe

  4. Jul 26

    Entity Mapping Works on Google. Does Any of It Reach ChatGPT?

    Show notes below, ordered as the links appear in the piece, with the anchor described so listeners know what each one is when they can't see the article's hyperlinked text. The two arXiv papers are the load-bearing sources, so I gave them the fuller descriptions. Entity Mapping Works on Google. Does Any of It Reach ChatGPT? Entity mapping treats Google and ChatGPT as one system. They are not, and this episode is about where the line falls and what your entity work is actually worth on each side. Read the full article: [link to the Substack post] Referenced in this episode Google's 2012 "things not strings" announcement, the launch of the Knowledge Graphhttps://blog.google/products/search/introducing-knowledge-graph-things-not/ Schema.org, the structured data vocabularyhttps://schema.org Wikidata, the collaborative entity databasehttps://www.wikidata.org Research on how factual knowledge is stored in language models, distributed across parameters rather than held in any single onehttps://arxiv.org/abs/2602.22787 Research finding that entity knowledge and relational knowledge sit in different parts of a model and do not map onto each otherhttps://arxiv.org/abs/2409.00617 Connect Have a comment or a situation you want to compare notes on? Leave a comment on the post, or reach out directly. I also have an opening in my consulting roster starting mid-August. Get full access to Duane Forrester Decodes at duaneforresterdecodes.substack.com/subscribe

  5. Jul 19

    Google Went “Not Provided” in 2011 and Blinded Us. ChatGPT Just Shipped Its Version.

    Google Went "Not Provided" in 2011 and Blinded Us. ChatGPT Just Shipped Its Version. The organic attribution you keep asking for structurally isn't coming, and OpenAI's own documentation shows why. Here's what to measure instead. This week I'm digging into the question that keeps surfacing, unprompted, in my reader survey: attribution. The organic, item-level attribution we were trained to expect isn't coming from ChatGPT or the other answer engines, and OpenAI's own documentation shows why. They've built the measurement for advertisers and handed organic operators a robots.txt file. I walk through the three different things people actually mean when they say attribution, the first-party measurement you can run today without anyone's permission, a one-question test for any vendor in the space, and why the deeper problem underneath all of it is a trust and literacy gap that belongs to us, not to a platform. Referenced in this episode: The split I kept pointing at between the visibility switches and the measurement stack lives right in OpenAI's crawler documentation, where you'll find the ads bot sitting alongside the search and training bots. https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/bots And here's the paid half I described, OpenAI's own server-to-server conversions pipeline, the pixel and the events API tied to an ads manager account. That's closed-loop attribution that already exists, just behind an ad account. https://developers.openai.com/ads/conversions-api The optimistic end of that wildly uneven conversion range comes from Microsoft Clarity's study of more than 1,200 publisher sites, where AI-referred visitors converted to sign-ups at roughly eleven times the organic-search rate. https://clarity.microsoft.com/blog/ai-traffic-converts-at-3x-the-rate-of-other-channels-study/ And the sober counterweight, the peer-reviewed study in Marketing Science across 973 sites and twenty billion dollars in revenue, found organic LLM traffic converting below every traditional channel except paid social. Both are true, which is the point. https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/10.1287/mksc.2025.0489 Finally, if you want the longer argument for why the underlying systems, not the dashboards, are where this literacy has to live, that's the whole spine of my book, The Machine Layer. https://www.amazon.com/Machine-Layer-Visible-Trusted-Search/dp/B0G2WZKM59/ref=sr_1_1 Get full access to Duane Forrester Decodes at duaneforresterdecodes.substack.com/subscribe

  6. Jul 12

    Do the Answer Engines Keep Your Fingerprint, or Do They Start Fresh Every Time?

    This week I'm asking whether the fingerprint your SEO work has been pressing into search for years actually carries into the answer engines, or whether they start fresh every time. We walk through where the record provably persists, which is Google's stack and Bing's, where it enters the pipeline and then goes dark, such as in the Bing-to-ChatGPT path, and the layer nobody outside the lab can prove yet, whether the models keep a native, per-domain record of their own the same way traditional search does. Then a practical sorting of your existing work into what pays forward, what does double duty, and what's genuinely new, plus why recovery isn't one thing but a curve. Links and references When I said Google's AI features are rooted in its core ranking systems, that's straight from Google's own blog post on AI Mode: https://blog.google/products/search/ai-mode-search/ On Google measuring sections of a site independently, here's the site reputation abuse policy clarification I referenced: https://developers.google.com/search/blog/2024/11/site-reputation-abuse When I mentioned IndexNow as the pipe that pushes freshness signals to the index, here's the protocol itself: https://www.indexnow.org/ Web IQ came out at Build in 2026, and here’s the link to their own post explaining what it is and what it does: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/webiq And if you want the longer argument, my book, The Machine Layer: https://www.amazon.com/Machine-Layer-Visible-Trusted-Search/dp/B0G2WZKM59/ref=sr_1_1 The written version of this episode is available as the full article on this same Substack. Get full access to Duane Forrester Decodes at duaneforresterdecodes.substack.com/subscribe

  7. Jul 5

    The Web Is Eating Itself and Your Metrics Look Fine

    Show Notes This week: the web is filling up with machine-written content just as machine readers are about to become its dominant audience, and the two trends feed each other. Retrieval systems already lean toward AI-written text, which quietly narrows the pool of sources behind AI answers while accuracy still looks fine, a state researchers call deceptively healthy. We walk through the mechanism in plain language, why it can't hold, and four things you can do to be the human, evidence-bearing source that survives the shakeout. Links and references On how much of the web is already machine-written, the Graphite analysis as reported by Axios: https://www.axios.com/2025/10/14/ai-generated-writing-humans On the coming explosion in machine-driven queries, Jordi Ribas of Microsoft, on X: https://x.com/JordiRib1/status/2061866606670581871   On retrieval systems preferring AI-written text, the SIGIR study that named the effect, invisible relevance bias: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.14084 On what happens as synthetic content accumulates in the pool, the 2026 Web Conference paper on retrieval collapse: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.16136 On why a system that feeds on its own output degrades over time, the Nature research on model collapse: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07566-y On the platforms' stated neutrality about how content is made, Google's own guidance on its AI features: https://developers.google.com/search/docs/fundamentals/ai-optimization-guide And if you want the longer argument, my book, The Machine Layer: https://www.amazon.com/Machine-Layer-Visible-Trusted-Search/dp/B0G2WZKM59/ref=sr_1_1 Get full access to Duane Forrester Decodes at duaneforresterdecodes.substack.com/subscribe

  8. Jun 28

    Microsoft Just Proved a Point About Search Today

    Show Notes Microsoft Just Proved a Point About Search Today Announcing Microsoft Web IQ — Bing Search Blog https://blogs.bing.com/search/June-2026/Announcing-Microsoft-Web-IQ Introducing AI Performance in Bing Webmaster Tools (public preview) — Bing Webmaster Blog https://blogs.bing.com/webmaster/February-2026/Introducing-AI-Performance-in-Bing-Webmaster-Tools-Public-Preview New AI Visibility Insights in Bing Webmaster Tools: Intents, Topics, Citation Share, and Compare — Bing Search Blog https://blogs.bing.com/search/June-2026/New-AI-Visibility-Insights-in-Bing-Webmaster-Tools-Intents-Topics-Citation-Share-Compare Jordi Ribas on Web IQ and how AI agents search — Search Engine Land https://searchengineland.com/microsoft-releases-web-iq-powered-by-bing-but-designed-for-how-ai-agents-search-479194 Microsoft Web IQ gives AI agents Bing grounding APIs — Search Engine Journal https://www.searchenginejournal.com/microsoft-web-iq-gives-ai-agents-bing-grounding-apis/577736/ The evolving role of the index: from ranking pages to supporting answers — Bing Search Blog https://blogs.bing.com/search/May-2026/Evolving-role-of-the-index-From-ranking-pages-to-supporting-answers Rank and AI Citation Aren’t the Same Number — Duane Forrester Decodes https://duaneforresterdecodes.substack.com/p/rank-and-ai-citation-arent-the-same The Machine Layer (book) — Amazon https://www.amazon.com/Machine-Layer-Visible-Trusted-Search/dp/B0G2WZKM59/ref=sr_1_1 Get full access to Duane Forrester Decodes at duaneforresterdecodes.substack.com/subscribe

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AI is rewriting how brands get found, cited, and trusted. Duane Forrester breaks down what that means for practitioners and marketing leaders who can't afford to get it wrong. duaneforresterdecodes.substack.com