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Britain's Independent Economic Think Tank

  1. 5d ago

    £100 off bills costs £2.6bn. Who pays? | Healey's Budget, the OBR and long gilts

    The morning after John Healey's first Budget, Marcus Ashworth and Michael Brown join Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank, to go through what it did and what it left for later. The OBR puts the Chancellor's buffer at £15bn and gives him a 56% chance of meeting his fiscal rules, with real-terms spending cuts pencilled in from 2028. The bank surcharge doubles to 6% for 15 months while £100 goes off energy bills for households in council tax bands A to D, at a cost of £2.6bn. And the gilt remit has all but stopped selling long-dated debt, which the panel says explains the calm market reaction better than anything in the speech. They finish on defence at 3%, devolution, whether £15bn of headroom is enough, and what the Chancellor is waiting for. Chapters0:00 Pints & Policy0:08 The morning after the Budget1:05 98 measures: tinkering, not a plan2:34 Why so few leaks?2:51 The OBR's downbeat forecasts3:47 What the OBR's model says about growth4:37 Giveaways now, cuts later5:08 How the gilt market was squared6:39 Long gilts: from over 30% to under 7%8:32 The 6% bank surcharge9:24 £100 off bills: who pays?9:44 First-time buyers and the housebuilders10:01 Defence, welfare and the long grass10:38 Healey, Burnham and the EU11:43 Devolution: can mayors cut taxes?12:28 Second homes and council funding13:02 Is the OBR right on productivity?13:55 Assumptions already out of date14:45 Is £15bn of headroom enough?15:40 The odds of meeting the fiscal rules16:37 Unemployment: OBR 5.1%, Bank of England 5.3%16:53 Doubts about the jobs data17:42 What is the Chancellor waiting for?19:49 Front-loaded giveaways, back-loaded bills20:59 The 10-year plan The numbers• Headroom (Budget 2026, OBR): £14.5bn against the stability rule in 2029-30, rounded to £15bn, down from £23.6bn in March. The OBR gives a 56% chance of meeting the fiscal rules (City AM, 28 October).• Growth (OBR): 1.2% in 2026 and 1.0% in 2027, down from 1.6% for 2027 in March. Unemployment peaks at 5.1% in 2027. Borrowing is £133.2bn (4.2% of GDP) in 2026-27, against £115.5bn forecast in March.• Bank Corporation Tax Surcharge: up from 3% to 6% for 15 months, 1 January 2027 to 31 March 2028. The policy costings put the yield at about £1.5bn in total (£305m, £950m and £220m); Michael's £1.3bn is his own figure.• Household Energy Payment: £100 paid from January 2027 to households in England in council tax bands A to D, up to 20 million households, at a cost of £2.6bn.• Gilt remit 2026-27 (DMO, 28 October): £250.6bn of gilt sales. Gilts of 15 years and over are planned at under 7% of issuance, down from over 30% five years ago and the lowest share since 1990-91 (Reuters). Britain's first 12-month Treasury bill launches in January.• Defence: a target date of 3% of GDP in 2030 and 3.5% by 2035, with the details at next year's spending review.• ONS: unemployment 4.7% in June to August (Marcus says "employment rate"); CPI inflation 3.5% in September. Bank Rate is 3.75%; the Bank of England decides on Thursday 5 November.• Other figures in conversation are the speakers' own. Market talk in this episode is conversation between the panel, not investment advice. Guests: Marcus Ashworth, markets commentator (X: @marcusashworth), and Michael Brown, award-winning global macro strategist and market analyst (X: @MrMBrown). Host: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank (X: @DamianPudner). Pints & Policy talks to guests from across politics and markets. Their views are their own. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/BeJ8DESEP68 Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes. gbtt.info · X: @GreatBritishTT

  2. Oct 25

    France pays 172bp over Germany. Who steps in? | Healey's ‘puffins’, $117 oil and the Budget

    France's 10-year borrowing costs closed 172 basis points above Germany's this week, the widest gap since the euro crisis, and the ECB has yet to say where it would step in. Marcus Ashworth and Michael Brown join Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank, to ask who backstops France, why oil is above $117 when more crude is flowing, and whether a Bank of England rate rise is coming on 5 November. Then Budget week: John Healey's first Budget on Wednesday, reports that £20bn could go through the British Business Bank and the National Wealth Fund (the public financial institutions the City calls ‘puffins’), and whether the gilt market treats that as more borrowing whatever the fiscal rules say. They finish on GBTT's alternative Budget, the personal allowance, the minimum wage, public sector pay and the triple lock. Chapters0:00 Pints & Policy0:08 Morning, and name Damian's dragon1:08 The week: jobs, inflation, France and tech stocks2:16 A Bank of England rate rise on 5 November?6:02 Treasuries finally decouple from oil6:59 Why is oil above $117?9:28 Jackdaw, Rosebank and the North Sea11:05 France: will the ECB step in, and when?15:44 Has the leverage clear-out run its course?16:35 The Budget: cautious now, more to come20:15 ‘Puffins’: £20bn of borrowing off the books?22:54 The gilt remit, the number that matters24:28 Government by spreadsheet: marking the OBR's homework26:25 GBTT's alternative Budget: £150bn of cuts29:22 Getting out of the fiscal straitjacket31:37 Civil service: a freeze or real reform?32:21 Raise the personal allowance, or lower it?36:07 Fiscal drag and frozen thresholds38:01 The minimum wage at two-thirds of median pay40:32 Public sector pay: 6.3% against 3.0%41:24 The triple lock44:35 One thing they want from the Budget The numbers- FT (23 October): John Healey is to give a £20bn boost to the British Business Bank and the National Wealth Fund. The fiscal rule targets public sector net financial liabilities, which nets the loans off against the assets.- ONS (20 October): unemployment 4.7% in June to August, down from 4.9%. Vacancies 691,000 in July to September, down 21,000. Regular pay grew 6.3% in the public sector and 3.0% in the private sector in the three months to August.- ONS (21 October): CPI inflation 3.5% in September. GfK (23 October): consumer confidence fell 11 points to −24 in October.- ONS public sector finances (21 October): debt interest was £10.9bn in September 2026, the highest September since records began in 1997; Marcus's "12 billion" rounds this up.- France: the 10-year OAT–Bund spread closed at 171.8bp on 23 October after 174.6bp on 22 October, the widest since the 2011–12 euro crisis. The 180 Damian mentions is an intraday level we have not confirmed. Moody's kept France at Aa3 with a negative outlook on 23 October.- Brent crude settled at $116.72 on 23 October after touching $117.42.- GBTT's alternative Budget (23 October): £150bn a year of lower spending at full value, about £97bn of tax cuts released only as savings are scored, and 200,000 fewer civil service posts (523,795 full-time equivalent in March 2026).- The Budget is on Wednesday 28 October. The ECB decides on Thursday 29 October and the Bank of England on Thursday 5 November.- Other figures in conversation are the speakers' own. Market talk in this episode is conversation between the panel, not investment advice. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/-zM3AP-Lfqk Guests: Marcus Ashworth, markets commentator (X: @marcusashworth), and Michael Brown, award-winning global macro strategist and market analyst (X: @MrMBrown)Host: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank (X: @DamianPudner) Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes.gbtt.info · X: @GreatBritishTT

  3. Oct 22

    Debt passes £3 trillion. Who pays it down? | Jackdaw, net zero and the SAS investigations

    UK national debt passed £3 trillion this week for the first time. A week before John Healey's first Budget, Benedict Spence joins Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank, to ask whether anyone in government plans to pay any of it down, and why the deficit keeps growing. They also cover the Jackdaw decision and what North Sea drilling means for energy bills and net zero, why there is no magic pot of money left to tax, the Great British Think Tank's £150bn a year of spending cuts, the coming argument over indefinite leave to remain, and the investigations into SAS soldiers. Chapters0:00 Pints & Policy0:09 Debt passes £3 trillion, inflation 3.5%0:39 Petty politics before the Budget1:23 A Budget that tries to keep everything on course1:59 £3 trillion: will anyone pay it down?2:27 Nearly £100bn borrowed in six months2:46 Jackdaw, Rosebank and energy security3:29 Will voters back North Sea drilling?4:27 Net zero v energy bills5:21 Britain's emissions and your prices5:48 Jackdaw won't move prices, but it can be taxed6:37 No magic pot of money7:39 £150bn of cuts: send it to Healey?8:14 The welfare bill and the lenders9:09 Grasp the nettle: delay makes it worse9:50 Migration and indefinite leave to remain10:58 Settlement reform: the cost and the politics11:53 The SAS investigations12:35 War isn't Call of Duty13:31 Special forces: the best of the best14:42 Investigated, then sent back on operations15:37 Who would answer a call-up?16:18 Rules of engagement in Afghanistan The numbers: public sector net debt was £3,005.0bn at the end of September 2026, 94.0% of GDP, the first time above £3 trillion (ONS, provisional). Borrowing from April to September was £97.8bn, £6.0bn above the OBR forecast; Damian rounds this to £100bn. CPI inflation was 3.5% in September, up from 3.1%. The Jackdaw gas field was approved on 21 October; there is no decision yet on Rosebank. The Sunday Times reported on 18 October that SAS soldiers questioned over a 2022 raid in Syria were back on operations within 48 hours; no charges were brought. The Home Secretary plans to extend the wait for indefinite leave to remain from five years to 15. £150bn a year of spending cuts is the Great British Think Tank's own estimate. The Budget is on Wednesday 28 October. Other figures in conversation are the speakers' own. Guest: Benedict Spence, political commentator (X: @BenedictSpence). Host: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank (X: @DamianPudner). Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/buhIPLHF_jc Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes. gbtt.info · X: @GreatBritishTT

  4. Oct 17

    Who's actually seeing this growth? | Bank taxes, the IFS's £35bn and the housing market

    UK GDP grew 0.1% in August, and in the three months to August only the services sector grew. Marcus Ashworth and Michael Brown join Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank, to ask who is actually seeing this growth and why the forecasters missed it. They cover reports of a higher bank surcharge before the 28 October Budget, the IFS's £35bn warning, the risk of an early election, a jump in US producer prices, China's export surplus, the AI shake-out, and a housing market where few lenders want new business. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/mlFnyNv6fNc Chapters0:00 Pints & Policy0:14 0.1% growth in August, and only services grew1:12 How did every forecaster get UK growth wrong?2:40 "None of them are seeing this growth"4:11 Growth on paper, but where are the jobs?4:44 Measure GDP per head5:55 Gilts rally: are bonds a safe haven again?8:04 Bank tax: the surcharge back to 8%?9:40 A Treasury feint? Tiered reserves and the Bank14:26 The IFS Green Budget's £35bn16:56 A right-wing Budget, or an early election?20:47 US producer prices jump 1.3%22:17 Any good news? The war, oil and China's surplus24:12 Tesla's Roadster and the new Jaguar25:59 Next week's data and the Bank's 5 November decision26:42 The AI shake-out29:35 The biggest market risks for the next three months30:52 Housing: mortgage rates, Help to Buy and 1.5m homes37:40 Yields, equities and sterling: where next? The numbers- ONS (15 October): GDP grew 0.1% in August and 0.7% in the three months to August. Services grew 0.9%; production fell 0.2% and construction 1.0%.- Bank surcharge: 3% since April 2023 on top of 25% corporation tax. A rise to 8%, reported on 16 October, would take the combined rate to 33%.- IFS Green Budget (12 October): around £35bn of tax rises or benefit cuts by 2030-31 to avoid departmental cuts and raise defence spending.- US final-demand producer prices rose 1.3% in September, the most since March 2022.- The Bank of England decides on Thursday 5 November (Michael says the 4th). UK CPI was 3.1% in August, core 2.6%; Michael's 2.4% ex-energy is his own figure.- China's trade surplus was $938bn from January to September; Marcus's $1.5tn is his full-year estimate.- Market talk is conversation between the panel, not investment advice. Guests: Marcus Ashworth, markets commentator (X: @marcusashworth), and Michael Brown, award-winning global macro strategist and market analyst (X: @MrMBrown)Host: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank (X: @DamianPudner)Pints & Policy talks to guests from across politics and markets. Their views are their own. Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes.gbtt.info · X: @GreatBritishTT

  5. Oct 11

    Don't hike into a supply shock | The Bank's 5 November call, France's spread and a UK bond crisis

    Gilt yields hit their highest since 1998 this week, and markets expect the Bank of England to raise rates on 5 November. Marcus Ashworth and Michael Brown join Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank, to ask what is driving the bond sell-off: forced sellers and a buyers' strike, or years of government overspending. They cover France's widening spread and who would rescue it, whether Britain needs a bond crisis to force fiscal repair, why a rate rise into an energy shock is the wrong policy mix, the 28 October Budget, and the US deal with Russia on diesel exports. Chapters0:00 Pints & Policy0:08 Another awful week for bonds0:46 A stop-loss and a buyers' strike3:26 Rising yields, and AI debt crowding out5:22 Japanese money leaves France6:06 Why buy a gilt near 6% when SoftBank pays 9%?7:12 Pension funds no longer soak up gilts7:37 France's spread and Italy's 2011 peak8:05 Bailey and De Cos warn on market fragility10:51 Would an ECB rescue reward France?11:22 Where is the strike on the ECB backstop?13:06 Contagion: Spain and Italy13:40 Spain's election and Italy's direction15:31 The ESM and France's credit rating16:25 Bunds back as a safe haven17:28 Damian's UnHerd essay: does it take a bond crisis?19:43 Does Britain need a bond crisis?22:51 5 November: a rate rise priced in23:05 "You do not hike rates into a negative supply shock"25:11 A second rise in February?26:25 The wrong policy mix27:22 No hire, no fire, and governing day to day28:30 Bank tax and the 28 October Budget29:30 Policy by social media, and the long grass30:28 Trump's Russian diesel deal31:00 Europe's record, Greenland and an Iran deal33:01 The midterms and Iran's oil exports34:18 Sign-off The numbers- The 30-year gilt yield reached 6.05% on Thursday 8 October 2026 and the 10-year touched 5.53%, the highest since early 1998 and July 2007 respectively.- Markets priced about an 81% chance of a quarter-point Bank of England rise on 5 November (LSEG, 7 October); Damian quotes 83 to 90% on air. Bank Rate is 3.75% after a 6-3 vote to hold in September, with three members voting for 4%.- France's 10-year spread over German Bunds passed 140 basis points on 2 October, the widest since 2012, and was about 133 on 9 October. Damian's "around 150" is his round figure. Italy's spread went above 500 basis points at the height of the 2011 crisis.- The Budget is on 28 October 2026.- Yields up 70 to 90 basis points this year, core inflation excluding energy of 2.3 to 2.4%, private-sector pay growth just under 3%, Bank Rate at 4.25% within six months, Iran's crude exports in September and the 6 to 7% hit to refinery capacity are the panel's figures as of recording; Marcus says on air he has not checked the refinery figure.- Market talk in this episode is conversation between the panel, not investment advice. Damian says on air he holds no position in gilts. Guests: Marcus Ashworth, markets commentator (X: @marcusashworth), and Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone (X: @MrMBrown)Host: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank (X: @DamianPudner)Pints & Policy talks to guests from across politics and markets. Their views are their own. Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes.gbtt.info · X: @GreatBritishTT

  6. Oct 9

    £45m to make one station step-free? | Growth, the Bank's QT losses and the universal credit trap

    David Belle, macro trader and founder of FINK, has written a report on Britain's economy and its debt. His diagnosis: Westminster has set the wrong incentives, and the blame then lands on pensioners, the rich or people on universal credit. He joins Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank, to work through it. They cover the Treasury's indemnity on the Bank of England's QT losses, £45m to make one station step-free, the M4 relief road, taxing land while cutting capital gains tax to 5%, the universal credit taper and Japanification. Damian brings new research on migration and wages outside London, and argues for entrepreneurs on the Monetary Policy Committee and an end to inheritance tax. Chapters0:00 Pints & Policy0:08 David's report: Britain's problem is incentives1:53 Skin in the game: a long-dated gilt4:43 America's long end v Britain's5:39 The Treasury insures the Bank's bond losses7:42 The QT pause and the "moron premium"8:50 Interest on reserves: what Reform miss10:27 Energy and structural inflation12:49 Growth first: £45m for a station14:19 M4 relief road and the Thames crossing16:01 Devolution: moving the problem out of London?17:31 Georgism: tax land, not enterprise19:23 Land v property, and stamp duty20:47 Tax the land, cut capital gains to 5%21:50 Which party would do it?24:03 Anti-business, anti-growth25:27 GDP per head and migration25:56 Wages After the Wave28:33 Universal credit: an incentive not to work30:42 Does it take a bond crisis?31:35 Japanification32:45 Empty high streets34:00 The fourth way: fiscal policy and the OBR35:27 Debt is fine if it buys growth36:53 More entrepreneurs on the MPC37:32 Inheritance tax is morally wrong39:43 Pay MPs for performance?41:29 Wrap The numbers- Universal credit: above the work allowance, the taper withdraws 55p of universal credit for every extra £1 of take-home pay (DWP rates, 2026-27).- Bank of England, 17 September 2026: gilt sales paused until April 2027; gilts maturing in 2049 or later stay on the balance sheet; £146bn of 2035-49 gilts to be sold at about £20bn a year. Losses on the Asset Purchase Facility are indemnified by HM Treasury.- The £45m step-free scheme is at Peckham Rye station, for which Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh launched a petition on 6 October 2026 (City AM). David says Hackney on air.- M4 relief road: the Welsh Government spent £135.7m on the scheme before it was scrapped in 2019. Damian says £128m on air.- Cambridge Circus Research, "Wages After the Wave" (Hubert Kucharski, October 2026, foreword by Damian Pudner): payrolled jobs in England rose by 2.8m between 2015 and 2025, and 2.3m of them (82%) went to non-UK nationals. The report finds the rise in migrant employment held down pay for British workers outside London.- Industrial energy: David says French industry pays 80% less. The government's own 2026 estimate for supported energy-intensive firms is £86/MWh in the UK against £69/MWh in France, so UK firms pay about a quarter more.- Payrolled employees: 30.2m in August 2026 (early estimate), down 145,000 on the year (ONS).- The Office for Budget Responsibility was set up in 2010. An MP's basic salary is over £90,000.- Other figures in conversation are the speakers' own. Nothing in this episode is investment advice. Pints & Policy talks to guests from across politics and policy. Their views are their own. Guest: David Belle, macro trader and founder of FINK, former UK Growth Director at TradingView (X: @Fink_Money · YouTube: @DavidBelleFink · fink.money)Host: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank (X: @DamianPudner) Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes.gbtt.info · X: @GreatBritishTT

  7. Oct 8

    No inheritance tax on the family home? | Stamp duty, legal migration and Tories v Reform

    Kemi Badenoch used her Conservative conference speech to promise that nobody pays inheritance tax on their family home, and to scrap stamp duty on the homes people live in. Benedict Spence joins Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank, to go through what that means for families, why inheritance tax now reaches far beyond the 1% it was once said to touch, and what scrapping stamp duty could do for a gummed-up housing market. They also cover legal migration and the Tories' record on it, why voters still hold back their trust, whether Reform or the Conservatives can land a knockout on the right, whether Restore could follow Giorgia Meloni's route to power, and the two ideas from this conference season that both of them like. The numbers: Badenoch pledged no inheritance tax on the family home, no stamp duty on primary residences and a National Insurance cut for 21 to 24-year-olds (7 October 2026). 4.72% of UK deaths resulted in an inheritance tax charge in 2023-24 (HMRC). From 6 April 2027, most unused pension funds count towards an estate for inheritance tax. Other figures in conversation are the speakers' own. Guest: Benedict Spence, political commentator (X: @BenedictSpence). Host: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank (X: @DamianPudner). Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/SfPn8112R3U Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes. gbtt.info · X: @GreatBritishTT

  8. Oct 7

    Britain's capitalist command economy | Christopher Snowdon on a BBC tax, vaping and 20mph

    Is Britain a "capitalist command economy"? Dr Christopher Snowdon, Head of Lifestyle Economics at the Institute of Economic Affairs, joins Damian Pudner to explain how government now steers private industry with targets and fines, from heat pumps and electric cars to supermarket calories, and why it keeps the blame at arm's length. They also cover a proposed £11-a-month broadband levy to fund the BBC, why more vapers than smokers is good news, Wales's new 65p minimum price for alcohol, 20mph limits, impact assessments with billions in costs and no monetised benefit, the mini-budget compared with today's gilt market, and the one reform Chris would make first. Chris's new book, Inside the Sausage Factory: The Illusion of Evidence-Based Policymaking (IEA): https://iea.org.uk/publications/inside-the-sausage-factory/ Guest: Dr Christopher Snowdon, Head of Lifestyle Economics, Institute of Economic Affairs. X: @cjsnowdonHost: Damian Pudner, Director of the Great British Think Tank. X: @DamianPudner Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/D0MD0O_1jpw The numbers: the government is reported to be weighing an £11-a-month levy on home broadband bills to replace the TV licence (September 2026). Wales raised its minimum unit price for alcohol from 50p to 65p on 1 October 2026. ONS figures show more adults in Great Britain now vape than smoke (10.0% v 9.1% of adults aged 16 and over, 2024). The 30-year gilt yield went above 6% on 1 October 2026, higher than at the peak of the September 2022 mini-budget sell-off. Other figures quoted in conversation are the speakers' own. Pints & Policy talks to guests from across politics and policy. Their views are their own. Great British Think Tank. Data. Not vibes.gbtt.info · X: @GreatBritishTT

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About

Britain's Independent Economic Think Tank

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  • Creator
    GBTT
  • Years Active
    2026
  • Episodes
    21
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © GBTT
  • Show Website
    Pints & Policy

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