Margin of Victory

Equality and Fairness Campaign
  • 5.0 (1)
  • Politics
  • Weekly

Democracy is decided in the margin. This is a podcast about the elections, votes, civic engagement, and how political power is often won through the margins, and the LGBTQ Americans who have always lived there.

Episodes

  1. 2d ago

    The Morning After

    Democrats won or lead every statewide office in Arizona and are ahead in both chambers of the Legislature, which they have not controlled in decades. On the same ballots, voters approved Proposition 318, restricting transgender students' access to school restrooms, locker rooms and teams, by nearly 18 points. Recorded the morning after Election Day with the count still open, Michael Soto and Spencer Morgan talk with political scientist Dr. Brian Dille about what that combination does and doesn't reveal, what a new majority can and can't do, and what it takes to move from opposition to governing. Plus a short look at the national results, a peak at the arrhythmia of this cycle, and what it all means going forward. Topics •    Who will hold power in Arizona in January, and what is still uncalled •    Prop 318 and the Democratic statewide wins: competing explanations and what evidence could tell them apart •    From minority to majority: levers, constraints and accountability •    The other propositions, the superintendent race, LD9 and the count •    What Republican's attempts at mid-cycle redistricting actually accomplished •    National: Congress, state trifectas and LGBTQ+ candidates Resources •    Arizona Secretary of State unofficial results: results.arizona.vote •    Maricopa County election results and counting explainer: elections.maricopa.gov/results-and-data/election-results.html •    Maricopa County ballot status: Maricopa.Vote •    Arizona Secretary of State 2026 election information: azsos.gov/elections/election-information/2026-election-info Credits Margin of Victory is produced through Equality Arizona with support from the Equality & Fairness Campaign. Hosts: Michael Soto and Spencer Morgan. Guest: Dr. Brian Dille. Producer: Michael Soto. Mixing and editing: Spencer Morgan. Marketing and art: Ane Loveless. Production manager: Rachel McDonald. Contact: pod@equalityarizona.org. Results discussed are unofficial as of the morning of Nov. 4, 2026, and may have changed since recording.

    The Morning After

  2. 5d ago

    Dr. Teresa Leyba Ruiz -- The Superintendent

    Most Arizonans couldn't name their superintendent of public instruction, and in 2022, almost 53,000 voters who picked a governor left this race blank. It was decided by 9,188 votes. This year the seat is open: Superintendent Tom Horne lost his own primary to state Treasurer Kimberly Yee, who now faces Democrat Dr. Teresa Leyba Ruiz. Hosts Michael Soto and Spencer Morgan spend the hour with Dr. Ruiz, a former math teacher and president of Glendale Community College running for office for the first time. Equality Arizona has endorsed her. What this office can actually do without the Legislature, where she and Yee really differ on the ESA voucher program, why a teacher would stay, and what the Department of Education does in January if Prop 318 passes. IN THIS EPISODE: •    What the superintendent controls, and the State Board where she's one vote of eleven •    ESAs: auto-approval, income caps, public records, and what a superintendent can change without a new law •    The contrast with Kimberly Yee and Tom Horne •    Teachers leaving, reading and math scores, and AI in the classroom •    The Empower Hotline, Prop 318, and serving LGBTQ+ students in a building full of new rules •    Props 320 and 142: what they would do to schools and colleges, and why everyone should vote no •    Reminder to vote tomorrow, and why to fill out the whole thing CIVIC NEXT STEP: Arizona counts ballots received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3. Postmarks don't count. Go to a polling place and have them scan it in. And keep going past the top of the ballot! NEXT EPISODE: What Happened?! Election aftermath on the morning after. RESOURCES: •    Equality Arizona 2026 Voter Guide: https://www.equalityarizona.org/elect •    Maricopa County election calendar: https://elections.maricopa.gov/voting/election-calendar.html •    State-wide voting locations and drop boxes: https://my.arizona.vote •    Arizona Secretary of State, 2026 election information: https://azsos.gov/elections/election-information/2026-election-info SUPPORT: Margin of Victory is produced by Equality Arizona with support from the Equality & Fairness Campaign.

    Dr. Teresa Leyba Ruiz -- The Superintendent

  3. Oct 19

    Prop Talk LIVE!

    The 2026 Ballot Measures are a morass of difficult to parse language and hard to comprehend motivations. Margin of Victory, Equality Arizona, and the Will of the People campaign are here to help in PROP TALK, a public discussion of the proposition on the November 2026 Ballot.  In this LIVE RECORDED panel discussion, Spencer and Dr. H. L. T. Quan sit down with community leaders and subject matter experts (including our own, Michael Soto) to dive into these opaque measures and bring some clarity. The members of the Will of the People coalition urge a "No" vote on Props 142, 144, 318, and 320. While Equality Arizona's published 2026 Voter Guide recommends a "No" vote on all eight measures. Together we build on the discussion of Ep. 3 with experts adding their own reasoning for each one, measure by measure. Special thanks to Dr H. L. T. Quan, Dr. Brian Dille, Lupe Castro, Michael Soto, Progress Arizona, Save our Schools, Arizonans for a Quality Education, and First Church UCC in Phoenix for making this community event possible.  IN THIS EPISODE: Why should we be skeptical of ballot measures in Arizona, especially if their referred from the legislatureWhy the 2026 ballot measures are distractions, devious, and dangerous.Detailed discussion of Props 141, 316, 317, and 319Prop 142's anti-DEI amendment and Prop 318's expansion of Arizona's transgender-athletics law — the ballot's most direct LGBTQ+ stakesProp 320's school-funding mandateWhy you should read all the arguments and really listen NEXT EPISODE: Ep. 5 - Spencer and Michael sit down with Arizona Representative Lorena Austin and Candidate Jacob Martinez to discuss their races, the Legislature, and what is at state November 3rd.  RESOURCES: Equality Arizona 2026 Voter Guide: https://www.equalityarizona.org/votingArizona Secretary of State — official Publicity Pamphlet arguments (per proposition): apps.azsos.gov/election/BallotMeasures/2026/Arizona Secretary of State — 2026 Ballot Measures: https://azsos.gov/elections/ballot-measuresSUPPORT: Margin of Victory is produced by Equality Arizona with support from the Equality & Fairness Campaign.

    Prop Talk LIVE!

  4. Oct 9

    The Referenda: Sent to the Voters

    This election, every single measure on this November's Arizona ballot came from the Legislature, not from voters: for the first time in twelve years, zero citizen initiatives qualified. Hosts Michael Soto and Spencer Morgan return with Dr. Brian Dille for a full deep dive into all eight propositions Arizona voters will decide this November — from election-process changes and an anti-DEI constitutional amendment to transgender-athletics restrictions, local tax preemption, and a school-funding mandate. Equality Arizona's published 2026 Voter Guide recommends a "No" vote on all eight measures, with Props 142, 144, 318, and 320 flagged as the organization's highest priorities; the hosts build on that published position with their own reasoning for each one, measure by measure, since it isn't the same reasoning twice. IN THIS EPISODE: Why this year's ballot has zero citizen initiatives on it for the first time in twelve yearsProp 144's mail-ballot ID requirements and the elections-process fight behind itProp 142's anti-DEI amendment and Prop 318's expansion of Arizona's transgender-athletics law — the ballot's most direct LGBTQ+ stakesThree measures (Props 141, 316, 319) where the opposition doesn't split along the usual linesProp 320's school-funding mandate and Prop 317's cartel-designation measureWhy "no on all eight" isn't one argument repeated eight timesNEXT EPISODE: Margin of Victory continues with candidate interviews and conversations with the organizers, historians, and analysts doing the work of moving Arizona's margins — every week, through Election Day and beyond. RESOURCES: Equality Arizona 2026 Voter Guide: https://www.equalityarizona.org/votingArizona Secretary of State — official Publicity Pamphlet arguments (per proposition): apps.azsos.gov/election/BallotMeasures/2026/Arizona Secretary of State — 2026 Ballot Measures: https://azsos.gov/elections/ballot-measuresSUPPORT: Margin of Victory is produced by Equality Arizona with support from the Equality & Fairness Campaign.

    The Referenda: Sent to the Voters

  5. Oct 9

    Up and Down the Ballot

    Arizona's 2022 governor's race was decided by about one point. The Attorney General's race came down to 280 votes out of 2.5 million cast. This November, every one of Arizona's statewide offices is contested, and while they take up a lot of oxygen, they are not anywhere close to all the races on your ballot. Hosts Michael Soto and Spencer Morgan sit down with Dr. Brian Dille, professor of political science at Mesa Community College, for a full walkthrough of the Arizona ballot: the statewide executive offices, the Corporation Commission and Arizona's congressional races, control of the state Legislature, the courts, and the down-ballot races that carry more power than their visibility suggests. The episode includes plain-English explanations, with context, and resources for you to cast a ballot in Arizona, and updates on the national fight over mail voting heading into November. IN THIS EPISODE: A walkthrough of every statewide office on the ballot, from governor to mine inspectorThe Arizona Corporation Commission and Arizona's U.S. House racesWhat control of the state Legislature and the courts actually means for the next two years and which races will decide the outcomeA spotlight on down-ballot races that rarely get coverage but carry real powerA guide to registering, requesting, and returning a ballot in ArizonaNEXT EPISODE: "The Referenda: Sent to the Voters" — a full breakdown of each of Arizona's eight ballot measures, with Dr. Brian Dille back for round two. RESOURCES: Equality Arizona 2026 Voter Guide: https://www.equalityarizona.org/votingArizona Secretary of State — 2026 Elections: https://azsos.gov/electionsActive Early Voting List status check: https://my.arizona.voteMaricopa County Election Calendar: https://elections.maricopa.gov/voting/election-calendar.htmlSUPPORT: Margin of Victory is produced by Equality Arizona with support from the Equality & Fairness Campaign.

    Up and Down the Ballot

  6. Oct 9

    Welcome to the Margins

    In the 2024 election, more than a third of U.S. House races were decided by margins smaller than 13 percentage points. Arizona has a population that's about 13 and a half percent LGBTQ+. That's one in three congressional races decided by a margin smaller than the size of a single demographic group in one state. Welcome to Margin of Victory, a national democracy show that uses Arizona and LGBTQ+ civic life as its lens. We cover the elections, votes, civic choices, and organizing work that decides power at the margins. Hosts Michael Soto (Executive Director of Equality Arizona) and Spencer Morgan (Civic Engagement Director) introduce the show's premise, why Arizona matters, and why understanding where power actually gets transferred — at the margins — is central to understanding democracy itself. New episodes every week through the election and beyond.   IN THIS EPISODE:   ·      Why margins decide power in American democracy ·      How race data connects to Arizona LGBTQ+ civic power ·      What "margin of victory" means in practice ·      What's on the ballot in November 2026 ·      What's coming on the show   NEXT EPISODE:    “The Ballot”— an episode-length walkthrough of every race, office, and measure on the November general election ballot.   RESOURCES:   ·      Equality Arizona Voter Guide: https://equalityarizona.org/voting ·      Arizona Secretary of State — 2026 Elections: https://azsos.gov/elections ·      Voter Registration Deadline (Oct. 5): https://my.arizona.vote ·      Active Early Voting List Status Check: https://servicearizona.com or https://my.arizona.vote   SUPPORT:   Margin of Victory is produced by Equality Arizona with support from the Equality & Fairness Campaign.

    Welcome to the Margins
  • 6 Episodes

About

Democracy is decided in the margin. This is a podcast about the elections, votes, civic engagement, and how political power is often won through the margins, and the LGBTQ Americans who have always lived there.

Information

  • Creator
    Equality and Fairness Campaign
  • Years Active
    2026
  • Episodes
    6
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © @2026 Equality and Fairness Campaign

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