Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
  • 4.8 (579)
  • INVESTING
  • UPDATED WEEKLY

Top Traders Unplugged is where the world’s best investors come to share how they think - not just what they trade. Hosted by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, the show goes deep into systematic trend following, global macro, and the principles that drive long-term success. No forecasts. No fads. Just real conversations with hedge fund managers, economists, authors, and allocators - revealing the timeless ideas, mental models, and risk frameworks behind robust performance. If you're building resilient portfolios, allocating capital, or simply looking to cut through the noise - this is your edge. Clear thinking. Deep insights. Real experience. 🎧 New episodes weekly. Explore all episodes at toptradersunplugged.com https://toptradersunplugged.com

  1. SI381: Process Over Pain: Trend Following in an Unforgiving Market (Group Conversation Part 2)

    53M AGO

    SI381: Process Over Pain: Trend Following in an Unforgiving Market (Group Conversation Part 2)

    In part two of our year-end roundtable, the Systematic Investor team goes beyond performance to ask harder questions about the path forward. Are today’s drawdowns a signal of structural change? - or just the cost of staying disciplined in a low-volatility regime? As allocators repackage old ideas under new acronyms and model drift tempts even seasoned managers, the conversation turns to what still holds. From AI and capital efficiency to the quiet value of doing less, this is about defending process when the payoff isn’t obvious - and knowing what not to change when pressure mounts. We close off with out 2026 Outrages Predictions... don't miss them! ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on LinkedIn. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Katy on LinkedIn. Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn. Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn. Follow Richard on Twitter. Follow Mark on a href="https://twitter.com/mrzepczynski" rel="noopener noreferrer"...

    1h 4m
  2. IL44: From AI Hype to Transformative AGI ft. Aubrie Pagano

    2D AGO

    IL44: From AI Hype to Transformative AGI ft. Aubrie Pagano

    In this Ideas Lab episode, Kevin Coldiron speaks with venture capitalist and former founder Aubrie Pagano about what stands between today’s AI hype and a truly transformative AGI economy. Rather than treating AI as destiny, Aubrie maps the frictions that hold it back: hard power limits, fragile industrial data, and agents that still cannot coordinate with humans or each other. She explains why we may be a full capital cycle or two away from real AGI and why that delay is precisely where the best opportunities lie. The conversation then widens into the “Aquarius Economy,” a possible future in which human agency, not algorithms, becomes the scarcest and most valuable asset. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Aubrie on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why agent coordination is still clunky and unreliable 00:38 - Intro to Top Traders Unplugged and performance risk framing 01:34 - Kevin sets up the Ideas Lab and today’s focus on AGI 02:59 - Aubrie’s background as founder, researcher and VC shaping her lens 06:04 - Why she wrote about AGI and the Aquarius Economy 07:21 - AGI as the last cycle built on labor scarcity 10:41 - The blockers framework and why AGI may be a cycle or two away 12:58 - Blocker...

    1h 3m
  3. SI380: Dispersion Is the Story This Year (Group Conversation Part 1)

    12/27/2025

    SI380: Dispersion Is the Story This Year (Group Conversation Part 1)

    Niels is joined by all 9 amazing co-hosts, to discuss a year that refused to behave. In part one of the annual "roundtable", Niels and the group map why 2025 produced such striking dispersion across trend followers. They revisit the Liberation Day shock and the uncomfortable truth it exposed: results often came down to unglamorous choices like market selection, time horizon, and how quickly risk is resized after clustered volatility and sharp reversals. The conversation then widens to a structural theme: the rapid growth of strategies investors hope will sit outside stocks and bonds, from managed futures and multi strats to structured products, gold, and crypto, plus the liquidity, reflexivity, and selection challenges that follow when everyone reaches for the same diversifier. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on LinkedIn. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Katy on LinkedIn. Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn. Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn. Follow Richard on a href="https://twitter.com/richb118" rel="noopener noreferrer"...

    1h 13m
  4. OI20: Why Commodities Refuse to Trend Forever ft. Doug King

    12/24/2025

    OI20: Why Commodities Refuse to Trend Forever ft. Doug King

    Moritz Siebert speaks with Doug King about what it really means to trade commodities through cycles, distortions, and stress. Drawing on decades at Cargill and more than twenty years running a commodities hedge fund, Doug explains why innovation keeps scarcity narratives in check, why commodities resist buy and hold logic, and how real edge comes from cash markets rather than futures screens. He reflects on defining trades in oil, nickel, and agriculture, the limits of volatility targeting, and the discipline required to survive violent squeezes. The result is a grounded account of conviction, risk control, and why commodities reward patience more than prediction. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Moritz on Twitter. Follow Doug on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening remarks and introduction to Top Traders Unplugged 01:24 - Introducing Doug King and his background 04:49 - From Cargill to hedge funds and the pull of commodities 07:05 - Why the fund is purely discretionary and fundamentals driven 09:50 - Team size, selectivity, and waiting for the right trades 10:45 - Why commodities are cyclical and innovation breaks scarcity 13:46 - Electrification and where long term excitement may lie 15:37 - Defining edge in commodities trading 18:12 - Physical delivery, convergence, and real market signals 20:23

    48 min
  5. SI379: The Illusion of Safety in a Fully Invested Market ft. Cem Karsan

    12/20/2025

    SI379: The Illusion of Safety in a Fully Invested Market ft. Cem Karsan

    Niels and Cem reflect on a year marked by concentration, confidence, and growing structural fragility beneath calm markets. They examine extreme positioning, record low cash levels, and the quiet dominance of reflexive flows over fundamentals. Cem challenges common readings of volatility, explains where real fear hides in options markets, and outlines why tail exposure becomes critical late in cycles. The discussion broadens into portfolio construction, questioning the legacy of 60/40 investing and the illusion of diversification built during falling-rate decades. Grounded in history, market structure, and political cycles, this conversation offers a disciplined framework for navigating regimes where leverage, policy, and inequality quietly redefine risk. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series 00:49 - Geopolitical tensions beneath the surface of markets 02:07 - Extreme bullish sentiment and record low cash levels 04:12 - Margin use, positioning, and why this setup is fragile 06:07 - Why the VIX fails as a true fear indicator 11:48 - Buffett’s concentration and risk management through quality 16:27 - Leverage, Sharpe ratios, and misunderstood diversification 21:02 - Trend following performance and late year positioning 23:48 - Positioning, reflexivity, and market microstructure 28:25 - Volatility traps and convexity before stress events 31:06...

    1h 11m
  6. GM92: Politics in an Age of Hard Borders and Rising Hegemons ft. Gary Gerstle

    12/17/2025

    GM92: Politics in an Age of Hard Borders and Rising Hegemons ft. Gary Gerstle

    In this conversation, the veneer of political continuity is stripped back to reveal a world drifting toward harder borders, sharper identities and a reshaping of power once thought unthinkable. Gary Gerstle traces the erosion of the neoliberal order and the rise of a political logic that places national strength above universal norms. He examines how affordability stress, authoritarian impulses and fragmented parties are redrawing economic life and democratic expectations. The discussion widens into a global map of competing hegemons and the uneasy choices facing Europe and the United States. What emerges is a portrait of a century unsettled, yet not without agency. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow Gary on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening remarks on a shifting world and national security visions 00:44 - Introduction to Top Traders Unplugged and context for the discussion 01:40 - Framing the global macro environment and the need for deeper perspectives 02:24 - Introducing Gary Gerstle and his work on political and economic orders 04:00 - Defining the end of the neoliberal era and what has replaced it 07:02 - The tension between authoritarian forces and liberal democratic hopes 08:17 - Democracy under strain and the implications of Trump’s second term 10:06 - Shock, discipline and the early strategic force of Trump...

    1h 10m
  7. SI378: When Prices Stop Making Sense ft. Mark Rzepczynski

    12/13/2025

    SI378: When Prices Stop Making Sense ft. Mark Rzepczynski

    This episode examines markets through the lens of uncertainty rather than prediction. As the Federal Reserve delivers a rate cut amid dissent and conflicting signals, Alan and Mark explore what it means for systematic investors navigating noisy data, fragile liquidity and shifting regimes. The conversation moves from Fed credibility and term premia to bubbles, leverage and the limits of valuation in an environment shaped by narratives as much as fundamentals. Along the way, they return to a core question at the heart of systematic investing: when uncertainty rises and explanations multiply, should prices remain the final arbiter of risk, signal and portfolio design? ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor series 00:23 - Market context and recent CTA performance 02:41 - Initial reactions to the Fed decision and rate cut 03:12 - A messy Fed and the problem of dissenting signals 06:48 - Inflation, growth projections and policy uncertainty 08:31 - Signal versus noise in systematic trading models 11:22 - Employment data revisions and confidence in fundamentals 13:10 - Bond valuation, term premia and the question of safe assets 16:30 - Fiscal dominance, inflation risk and portfolio fragility 19:29 - Prices versus value and the limits of interpretation 22:47 - Narratives, reflexivity and momentum in markets 28:07...

    1h 3m
  8. TTU151: What Comes After 60/40? Systematic Thinking, BlackRock Style ft. Jeff Rosenberg

    12/10/2025

    TTU151: What Comes After 60/40? Systematic Thinking, BlackRock Style ft. Jeff Rosenberg

    Niels and Alan sit down with BlackRock’s Jeff Rosenberg to examine how the post Covid shift from too little to too much inflation is reshaping portfolios. Jeff explains why bond and equity correlations have changed, why fixed income is drifting back toward income rather than pure diversification, and how fiscal pressure and soft financial repression may influence rates. They explore what systematic really means at BlackRock, from trend ETFs and defensive alpha to market breadth and execution. The conversation ends with the rise of liquid alternatives, whole portfolio thinking and growing equity concentration risk. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Jeff on LinkedIn. Find out more about DUNN Capital Episode Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction, Jeff’s role at BlackRock Systematic and setting the agenda 04:09 - From too little to too much inflation and the end of divine coincidence 09:32 - Wage dynamics, “prices are too high” and persistent, not resurgent, inflation 14:48 - Bond equity correlation, the changing role of fixed income and income versus diversification 19:55 - Fiscal dominance, debt loads and the risk of soft financial repression 25:21 - What “systematic” means at BlackRock across beta, factors and pure alpha 30:44 - Trend as a systematic return stream and why...

    1h 14m
See All (892)

Hosts & Guests

4.8
out of 5
579 Ratings

About

Top Traders Unplugged is where the world’s best investors come to share how they think - not just what they trade. Hosted by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, the show goes deep into systematic trend following, global macro, and the principles that drive long-term success. No forecasts. No fads. Just real conversations with hedge fund managers, economists, authors, and allocators - revealing the timeless ideas, mental models, and risk frameworks behind robust performance. If you're building resilient portfolios, allocating capital, or simply looking to cut through the noise - this is your edge. Clear thinking. Deep insights. Real experience. 🎧 New episodes weekly. Explore all episodes at toptradersunplugged.com https://toptradersunplugged.com

Information

  • Creator
    Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
  • Years Active
    2014 - 2026
  • Episodes
    892
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Copyright 2026 CMC AG - This content does not constitute financial advice and is for educational purposes only. The content can not be used for commercial use without written permission from CMC AG.
  • Show Website
    Top Traders Unplugged

You Might Also Like