Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
  • 4.8 (587)
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Top Traders Unplugged is where the world’s best investors come to share how they think - not just what they trade. Hosted by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, the show goes deep into systematic trend following, global macro, and the principles that drive long-term success. No forecasts. No fads. Just real conversations with hedge fund managers, economists, authors, and allocators - revealing the timeless ideas, mental models, and risk frameworks behind robust performance. If you're building resilient portfolios, allocating capital, or simply looking to cut through the noise - this is your edge. Clear thinking. Deep insights. Real experience. 🎧 New episodes weekly. Explore all episodes at toptradersunplugged.com https://toptradersunplugged.com

  1. SI388: Peak Bubble? Why Markets Feel Different in 2026 ft. Mark Rzepczynski & Alan Dunne

    11H AGO

    SI388: Peak Bubble? Why Markets Feel Different in 2026 ft. Mark Rzepczynski & Alan Dunne

    Today Alan and Mark step back from the noise to examine a market environment that feels subtly but meaningfully different. From AI euphoria giving way to harder questions, to gold’s steady rise and a surprising divergence between US and emerging market inflation, the conversation centers on rotation, uncertainty, and shifting assumptions about safety. They explore whether Treasuries still anchor portfolios the way they once did, how fiscal pressures could reshape monetary policy, and why regime thinking matters for systematic investors. Beneath it all is a reminder that correlations change, narratives evolve, and adaptability remains the most durable edge in uncertain markets. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Mark on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Introduction & market check-in 02:52 – February performance: CTAs, trend following & commodities 04:53 – Peak bubble? AI, metals & speculative excess 07:10 – Gold demand, central banks & safe-haven flows 10:40 – The AI narrative shift & tech repricing 13:22 – Global rotation: US vs Europe & emerging markets 15:22 – EM inflation now lower than US — why it matters 21:48 – Why macro still matters (regime thinking vs stock picking) 31:49 – Fiscal vs monetary dominance explained 41:59 – $700B in Treasury issuance — scale of the debt...

    1h 3m
  2. GM97: Why Isn’t Anything Breaking? ft. Steen Jakobsen

    3D AGO

    GM97: Why Isn’t Anything Breaking? ft. Steen Jakobsen

    The global order is shifting in plain sight. In this Global Macro conversation, Steen Jakobsen, inventor of the Outrages Predictions, joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne to examine the slow grind reshaping productivity, debt, currencies, and political stability. From dollar regime risk to state capitalism, from market concentration to commodity repricing, the discussion moves beyond headlines to structural fault lines. Is gold signaling debasement? Can the U.S. sustain its debt path? Does AI lift productivity or hollow it out? Rather than predict collapse, Jakobsen outlines a drawn-out transition where capital reallocates, volatility hides beneath the surface, and political systems are tested long before markets finally react. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow Steen on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 01:38 - Introducing Steen Jakobsen 03:45 - From trading floors to outrageous predictions 06:32 - Dollar hedging and regime shift signals 08:06 - Davos as a macro...

    53 min
  3. SI387: The Cost-Benefit of Being Trendy ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel

    FEB 14

    SI387: The Cost-Benefit of Being Trendy ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel

    Today, we examine a year that looked chaotic but felt familiar to trend followers. Gold surged, equities rotated globally, and non-US markets quietly gained momentum. Yet beneath strong returns lies a deeper debate about model design, short versus long horizon signals, and whether innovation in liquid alternatives serves investors or sales desks. From AI disruption to product engineering and allocator behavior, this episode explores where systematic strategies truly create value and where structural incentives distort outcomes. In a changing macro regime, clarity of purpose may matter more than ever. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Andrew on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introducing the Systematic Investor series 01:17 - AI disruption and systematic investing 06:52 - The shifting perception of US risk 09:21 - Winter Olympics and market metaphors 12:59 - Hedge funds versus private equity 19:23 - 2025 review and the importance of risk allocation 22:17 - Why CTAs did not fully capture gold 29:48 - Short term versus long term trend models 35:27 - Letting risk run versus investor palatability 44:43 - The problem with liquid alternatives 51:21 - Product design versus fiduciary duty 59:06 - QIS, innovation and investor sophistication 01:04:41 - Model risk and the myth of risk premia 01:10:51 - Hopes for a trending year ahead Copyright © 2025 – CMC

    1h 14m
  4. GM96: The End of the Hedge: When Bonds Stop Protecting Portfolios

    FEB 11

    GM96: The End of the Hedge: When Bonds Stop Protecting Portfolios

    A familiar portfolio map is being redrawn. Ian Harnett traces the regime shift from disinflation and reliable bond hedges to a world where inflation pressures linger, supply chains shorten, and capital becomes a policy tool. The conversation moves from China’s exported deflation to Europe’s structural constraints, then into America’s strategy of attracting investment with tariff leverage. Beneath it all sits a political question: what happens if the governing coalition fractures ahead of the midterms. Harnett argues that is the moment the dollar turns from anchor to risk. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow Ian on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - The gray swan: political fracture and the point to sell the dollar 00:37 - Show intro and risk disclaimer 01:33 - Setting the frame: global macro, geopolitics, and regime change 04:34 - The new regime: inflation risk and the stock-bond relationship breaking 06:39 - Structural inflation drivers: deglobalization, trade weaponization, China’s deflation export 09:14 - Capital as a battleground: surcharges, controls, and Europe’s capital markets problem 12:02 - Europe’s catalyst problem: why it may take a crisis to build a true safe asset 14:44 - America’s playbook: inbound capital, tariff bargaining, and “neo-royalism” 18:32...

    1h 1m
  5. SI386: When Position Sizing Saves You ft. Rob Carver

    FEB 7

    SI386: When Position Sizing Saves You ft. Rob Carver

    Today, we are joined by Rob Carver to unpack one of the most volatile weeks seen in commodity markets in years. The conversation centers on silver’s sharp rise and sudden collapse, using it as a case study in volatility targeting, liquidity risk, and disciplined position sizing. From Freaky Friday to broader dislocations across assets, they examine why systematic risk management matters when markets move faster than narratives. The discussion expands into diversification, correlation assumptions, alternative markets, and new research on trend portfolio construction, offering a grounded reminder that survival often matters more than precision. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series 03:56 - Freaky Friday in precious metals 04:29 - How Rob trades silver in a volatility adjusted framework 10:25 - When volatility forces position reduction 12:38 - Liquidity myths in hot commodity markets 16:25 - Risk management lessons from silver’s collapse 22:28 - Dislocations across assets beyond metals 24:54 - Fed chair speculation and muted market reactions 31:33 - Discretionary versus systematic decision making 34:03 - Trend barometer and market breadth update 37:34 - Estimating portfolio correlation from PnL 41:18 - Correlation versus volatility predictability 45:13 - MAN Group paper...

    1h 9m
  6. UGO09: Playing the Players in a Narrative Market ft. Ben Hunt

    FEB 4

    UGO09: Playing the Players in a Narrative Market ft. Ben Hunt

    Cem Karsan sits down with Ben Hunt, founder of Epsilon Theory, to explore how narratives shape markets, politics, and decision making itself. Drawing on decades of experience across academia, hedge funds, and applied AI, Ben explains why stories, not data, increasingly drive outcomes in modern markets. The conversation spans unstructured data, inference, common knowledge, and the mechanics of narrative momentum. Together, they examine consumer expectations, inflation silence, geopolitical signaling, and the slow shift away from US dominance. What emerges is a framework for understanding markets as reflexive systems, where perception often matters more than reality. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to U Got Options and the trading floor setting 02:18 - Ben Hunt’s background and Epsilon Theory origins 04:11 - Markets as the ultimate multiplayer game 06:15 - Inference, unstructured data, and narrative analysis 08:18 - Why sentiment and word counts miss the real signal 11:16 - Mapping meaning and truthy stories 15:00 - LLMs as operating systems, not oracles 18:01 - Giving money back and when models stop working 21:16 - Applying narrative tools beyond markets 24:10 - Consumer weakness versus bullish expectations 30:43 - Inflation, recession, and why markets do not care 33:29 - Dormant stories and volatility discovery 34:26 -

    1h 1m
  7. SI385: When Volatility Becomes the Signal ft. Katy Kaminski

    JAN 31

    SI385: When Volatility Becomes the Signal ft. Katy Kaminski

    Katy Kaminski joins us to assess the early signals shaping markets in 2026. The conversation explores the resurgence of commodity trends, the role of volatility estimation, and why diversification across markets and speeds matters more than ever. Drawing on new research, they examine dispersion within the CTA universe, the limits of replication, and how volatility targeting quietly determines outcomes. From precious metals to currencies, from crisis alpha to geopolitical risk, this episode offers a grounded look at why trend following thrives during disruption and why regime change remains its natural habitat. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Katy on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series 00:39 - Weather disruptions and market perspective 02:31 - Precious metals and extreme commodity moves 04:28 - Gold, central banks, and monetary regime shifts 07:43 - Replication versus full CTA diversification 09:47 - Liquidity differences across metals 12:03 - Metals leading trend performance in 2026 15:01 - Multi-sector trends and diversification benefits 20:13 - Media attention and the return of trend following 23:29 - Research insights on speed and dispersion 31:44 - Trend speed and timing tradeoffs 40:59 - Market concentration and narrow universes 43:19 - Volatility estimation as a hidden...

    1h 5m
  8. GM95: When Consensus Gets the Cycle Wrong ft. Dario Perkins

    JAN 28

    GM95: When Consensus Gets the Cycle Wrong ft. Dario Perkins

    In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Dario Perkins to examine why the global macro consensus may be fundamentally misreading the current cycle. The conversation moves from US fiscal stimulus and Federal Reserve credibility to the limits of the K-shaped economy narrative. Perkins challenges prevailing assumptions around AI-driven productivity, labor market weakness, and falling inflation, arguing that policy choices are pushing economies toward overheating rather than stagnation. The discussion extends to bond markets, term premia, Japan’s normalization, Europe’s fiscal pivot, and China’s rebalancing dilemma. What emerges is a picture of renewed growth, rising risks, and a cycle whose ending is now becoming visible. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow Dario on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening remarks and context 02:25 - Global uncertainty and growth expectations 05:00 - The K-shaped economy under scrutiny 08:12 - Fiscal stimulus, tariffs, and timing effects 11:07 - Fed independence and political pressure 17:06 - The race to appoint the next Fed chair 26:35 - Productivity data and the AI narrative 35:51 - Labor market stall speed debate 39:56 - Bond markets, term premia, and inflation risk 46:03 - Japan’s normalization and demographic...

    1h 4m
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4.8
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About

Top Traders Unplugged is where the world’s best investors come to share how they think - not just what they trade. Hosted by Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, the show goes deep into systematic trend following, global macro, and the principles that drive long-term success. No forecasts. No fads. Just real conversations with hedge fund managers, economists, authors, and allocators - revealing the timeless ideas, mental models, and risk frameworks behind robust performance. If you're building resilient portfolios, allocating capital, or simply looking to cut through the noise - this is your edge. Clear thinking. Deep insights. Real experience. 🎧 New episodes weekly. Explore all episodes at toptradersunplugged.com https://toptradersunplugged.com

Information

  • Creator
    Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
  • Years Active
    2014 - 2026
  • Episodes
    906
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Copyright 2026 CMC AG - This content does not constitute financial advice and is for educational purposes only. The content can not be used for commercial use without written permission from CMC AG.
  • Show Website
    Top Traders Unplugged

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