We are living in a time of greater geopolitical disorder, and that disorder is “coupled with and feeding off” climate change. During the green revolution following WW2 agricultural productivity grew steadily. In the last couple of decades, that has no longer been the case. Farmers across Europe and North America have just come through another year of extreme heat and drought. Meanwhile, the trade systems that move food around the world are being strained by conflict, tariffs, and the weaponization of trade routes. Today I am joined by Arthur Snell, a former British diplomat who spent two decades in the Foreign Office. He served in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Nigeria and Zimbabwe, led the UK’s global programs countering violent extremism, and was High Commissioner to Trinidad and Tobago. He is now an Associate Fellow at RUSI and a geopolitical consultant, writer and podcast host. He is also the author of Elemental: The New Geography of Climate Change and How We Survive It. Food has always been traded globally, from Egyptian wheat feeding Rome to today’s commodity markets. Arthur argues the lesson from history is that “functional and relatively free-flowing world trade is absolutely crucial to a functional food system.” When barriers and dysfunction are introduced, whether through tariffs, geopolitics, climate shocks or war, food systems can break down. The impacts are felt most keenly where resilience is lowest. In Egypt, for example, subsidized bread is a key element of social stability. Climate change is also redrawing the map. In the Sahel, the Sahara is advancing. In Russia’s sparsely populated far east, Chinese workers are moving north to expand agribusiness on land that was once too cold to farm. Coastlines are eroding, and Pacific atoll nations face losing theirs entirely. At the same time, long-standing norms around borders and territorial sovereignty are weakening, from Ukraine to Greenland. We also discuss asymmetric warfare. Cheap drones, together with a willingness to absorb suffering, can now challenge the most sophisticated militaries on Earth. And when ships no long pass freely through the Straits of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb, the effects are felt globally. Arthur’s central message is one of urgency, not despair: “The technologies that are needed for us to get out of this mess all exist already… We are already starting on that journey. What we’re not doing is doing it quick enough… It is not that it can’t be done… We have the ability, we just need to get going a bit quicker.” Send us Fan Mail