Eurodollar University Jeff Snider

Business at Walmart is brisk these days...and that's a big problem. The better things go for the company especially at the grocery department the worse you know it is in the economy. And the big retailer just put up robust results because it isn't just struggling Americans coming in to shop, Walmart is now getting tons of business from high-income earners, too, because now they're struggling. Not exactly the soft landing signal we'd hoped.  
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
NY Post Wealthier customers flock to Walmart to boost retailer’s sales in strong Q1 earningshttps://nypost.com/2024/05/16/business/wealthier-customer-flock-to-walmart-to-boost-retailers-sales-in-strong-q1-earnings/
Bloomberg Why We Can't Shake the Vibecession, Even in the Face of Good Newshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-05-16/high-prices-and-phantom-debt-why-we-can-t-shake-the-vibecession
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Chinese have sold a record amount of US Treasuries. Again. Most mainstream explanations point to political motives including many asserting an intentional act to move away from the dollar. The actual reason is indeed monetary but not at all in that way. The important immediate implications tell us a lot about the conditions for the globally synchronized economy.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg China Sells Record Sum of US Debt Amid Signs of Diversificationhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-16/china-sells-record-sum-of-us-debt-amid-signs-of-diversification
CNN China has teased how it might fix its property crisis. Markets are loving ithttps://www.cnn.com/2024/05/16/business/china-property-crisis-unsold-homes-hnk-intl/index.html
China NBS Basic situation of the national real estate market from January to April 2024https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202405/t20240517_1955760.html
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

A major global central bank would never hike rates during a prolonged recession, would it? You might be surprised to find out the answer is a solid, yes. Not only did it just happen, the reasons why tell us a whole lot about the real aim of central bank policies, where they come from, and, more important of all, the status of our globally synchronized world. The cycle drama just got taken up a notch. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Japan’s Economy Sputters as Dismal Run Extends to Three Quartershttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-15/japan-s-economy-contracts-as-consumers-companies-cut-spending
Reuters Japan's economy skids, clouding BOJ's rate hike planshttps://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japans-gdp-contracts-complicating-bojs-rate-hike-plans-2024-05-16/
Reuters Japan's finmin says 'speculative' moves in currency market impacting yenhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/japans-finance-minister-sees-speculative-moves-currency-market-2024-04-01/
Investing.com Japan GDP shrinks more than expected in Q1 as consumption slowshttps://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/japan-gdp-shrinks-more-than-expected-in-q1-as-consumption-slows-3443154
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

They called it the most important economic update in living memory, holding the key to everything from inflation to economy and interest rates. When it came out, it wasn't what everyone thought and even more interesting those numbers ended up being overshadowed by another set alarmingly consistent with everything else we've been seeing lately. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
BLS April US CPI press releasehttps://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
Bloomberg Here Are the Key Takeaways From US CPI Report for Aprilhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-15/us-cpi-report-april-2024-key-takeaways-on-inflation-core-measure
Bloomberg US Retail Sales Stall After Downward Revisions in Prior Monthshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-15/us-retail-sales-stall-after-downward-revisions-in-prior-months
CNN The backbone of America’s economy was just dealt a serious blowhttps://www.cnn.com/2024/05/15/economy/us-retail-sales-april/index.html
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

When the person who is supposed to help you find a job finds out they no longer have one themselves, that's a warning sign about the economy. Those have been proliferating lately and mostly focused on employment. This fits nicely (in a bad way) into other late cycle signals coming across including a sharp rise in consumer credit delinquencies. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Indeed Message from CEOhttps://www.indeed.com/press/releases/a-message-from-our-ceo-chris-hyams-2
FRBNY HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND CREDIT REPORT (Q1 2024)https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html
Liberty Street Economics Delinquency Is Increasingly in the Cards for Maxed‑Out Borrowershttps://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2024/05/delinquency-is-increasingly-in-the-cards-for-maxed-out-borrowers/
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

China's total credit in April actually fell for only the third time and by the most ever. Clearly the government is alarmed by that as well as the distinct lack of traction in the real economy (more deflation in producer prices, minimal gains in consumer prices). We'll go over what was just reported, what the government's next government plan is likely to be, and what the market(s) reaction(s) has(have) been. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
NYT Biden Looks to Thwart Surge of Chinese Importshttps://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/08/us/politics/biden-china-imports.html
WSJ China Hints at New Growth Push as it Warns of Rising Uncertaintieshttps://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-calls-long-delayed-policy-meeting-warning-of-rising-uncertainties-032fb571
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU