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15 МАЯ

The Consumer Cushion Is Almost Gone | Weekly Roundup

Markets are partying like it’s 2021 again, but consumers are cracking, inflation is heating up, and policymakers may be losing control. This week, we unpack the AI-driven melt-up in equities, the hidden stress building across Main Street, and why hyperscaler debt, derivatives mania, and rising bond yields are creating an increasingly unstable macro backdrop. We also explore the consumer slowdown, Nvidia selling chips to China, tariff reversals, retail speculation, energy inflation, Fed paralysis, and the growing disconnect between capital markets and the real economy. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Dell Children’s Fundraiser 05:55 Monster Earnings And AI 07:59 Is This A Bubble? 12:52 The AI Economy Flywheel 14:56 Frothy AI Positioning 20:10 Consumer Stress Hits Retail 27:17 Main Street Is Breaking 31:54 Yields Pressuring Markets 34:41 Who Removes The Punch Bowl? 39:24 Will The Fed Accommodate AI? 42:26 Trump’s Policy Reversal 47:02 Populism Against AI Politics 51:55 $10k Donation Goal FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dYIYTeh-rRK9vHQG_Qa_6GtJuQbbcbc5/view?usp=sharing › Dell Children's Donation – https://give.supportdellchildrens.org/team/826061 DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

15 мая

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53 мин.
14 МАЯ

AI Feels Like Crypto In 2017, Circle Raises $222M and Anthropic Cracks Down On SPVs

This week, we’re back with another weekly roundup to discuss the current AI mania and how it feels similar to crypto in 2017. We then deep dive into Circle's $222M raise, expectations for the Clarity Act, Anthropic's crackdown on SPVs and more. Enjoy! -- Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz Follow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroel Follow Rob: https://x.com/HadickM Follow Empire: https://x.com/theempirepod -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (05:44) AI Today Feels Like Crypto In 2017 (27:12) Circle Raises $222M (46:15) The Clarity Act (59:03) Anthropic Cracks Down On SPV’s (01:10:30) Content of The Week -- Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, Rob and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

14 мая

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1 ч. 16 мин.
13 МАЯ

The Fed Is Losing Its Easing Bias While AI Props Up The Economy | Neil Dutta

AI is holding up the economy, but the foundation underneath is getting harder to read. Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro joins Forward Guidance to unpack why inflation, labor, and AI capex are reshaping the Fed’s path. We cover the consumer squeeze, K-shaped spending, manufacturing data, Warsh’s Fed, and supply-shock volatility. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:54 The Real Inflation Story 06:26 Fed’s Higher Inflation Threshold 08:18 Why Labor Hasn't Broken 12:04 How To Read Supply Shocks 14:58 The Consumer Strength Illusion 19:20 The K-Shaped Consumer Debate 22:30 The AI Capex Macro Risk 26:03 Inside Trade & Manufacturing Data 29:18 Is Manufacturing Really Booming? 36:43 Warsh Faces An Impossible Fed 45:41 Fed Volatility Vs White House Policy 48:14 Final Thoughts FOLLOW NEIL DUTTA › X/Twitter – https://x.com/RenMacLLC FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward. Guidance– https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

13 мая

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49 мин.
4 МАЯ

How KelpDAO's $290M Exploit Nearly Killed DeFi | Stani Kulechov & Mike Silagadze

This week, Stani Kulechov & Mike Silagadze join the show to discuss the aftermath of the KelpDAO exploit. We deep dive into why this hack could have potentially killed DeFi, launching the DeFi United fund, how to mitigate against future hacks, why DeFi tokens are uninvestable and more .Enjoy! -- Follow Stani: https://x.com/StaniKulechov Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeSilagadze Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz Follow Empire: https://x.com/theempirepod -- This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at https://Fidelity.com/crypto Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC. -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (04:08) How The KelpDAO Exploit Could Have Killed DeFi (14:13) Fidelity Crypto Ad (14:48) Launching DeFi United (30:12) Fidelity Crypto Ad (30:52) The Future of Aave & EtherFi (39:00) DeFi’s Speculative Premium (43:00) How To Prevent DeFi Hacks? (53:00) Why DeFi Tokens Are Uninvestable -- Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, Rob and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

4 мая

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59 мин.
9 МАЯ

Oil And AI Are Breaking The Middle Class | Weekly Roundup

Markets are ripping while geopolitical risk, inflation, and class tensions boil under the surface, creating a growing disconnect between booming asset prices and the economic reality facing most people. This week, we break down the oil market, AI-driven growth, and the inflation dynamics shaping the global economy. We debate whether policymakers are intentionally running the economy hot to preserve growth and geopolitical leverage. We also dive into gold, housing, AI job disruption, consumer weakness, inequality, and why the next political and economic cycle could look even more unstable than markets expect. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:38 Oil Inventories Near Stress Levels 07:38 Trading Oil Volatility 13:45 Oil, China, And AI 17:13 Energy Exports Versus AI Imports 20:22 Can Statecraft Survive Inflation? 24:35 Earnings Keep Ripping 26:25 Run-It-Hot Inflation Regime 30:07 Gold Returns To The Spotlight 33:01 Run It Hot, Leverage, & Centralization 40:47 AI Hits The Labor Market 44:53 Housing And Replacement Costs 47:50 Inflation Hits Everyday Life FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-r4fcVGPGE15TIZN9JOGLQLu5ATcGPYl/view?usp=sharing DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

9 мая

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54 мин.
26 ЯНВ.

Why Kraken Is Betting Big on Onchain Vaults | John Zettler & Sun Raghupathi

This week, we’re joined by John Zettler, Director of Product at Kraken and Sun Raghupathi, Co-founder of Veda, to discuss their collaboration to bring onchain vaults to Kraken! We explore the growth of onchain vaults, how vaults package DeFi lending and yield strategies, vault mechanics, risk management, business models, comparisons to past yield products, and implications for DeFi adoption and future TVL growth. Enjoy! Resources 2026 Predictions Episode: https://youtu.be/yagd3CT2VQk?si=G1cFXBpODiWZ-pQR – Follow John: https://x.com/JohnZettler Follow Sun: https://x.com/sunandr_ Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz Follow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod – Timestamps: (02:45) What is a vault (09:26) The Evolution of Vaults (14:31) Vault Key Parties (21:49) Vault Business Models (29:14) Building Vaults with Coinbase and Morpho (33:29) Vaults Today vs BlockFi & Celsius (37:42) Bringing Vaults to Kraken (39:55) Determining Yield & Adding More Vaults (41:51) What made Yano Bullish on Vaults (45:52) Behind the Scenes (50:24) Vault Risks (56:37) Morpho's Model vs Veda's Model (57:59) Closing Comments on Vaults and DeFi TVL — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

26 янв.

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1 ч. 3 мин.
1 МАЯ

Big Tech Earnings, DeFi United and Pump Fun’s Token Burn

This week, we’re back with another weekly roundup to discuss the current state of markets during earnings season. As equities push to new all time highs on stronger than expected results, we take a closer look at Robinhood’s numbers, the DeFi United recovery fund, Pump.fun’s token burn announcement and more. Enjoy! -- Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz Follow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroel Follow Rob: https://x.com/HadickM Follow Empire: https://x.com/theempirepod -- This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at https://Fidelity.com/crypto Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC. -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (04:00) Takeaways From Earnings (20:10) Fidelity Crypto Ad (20:45) Stablecoin Chains (24:28) State of The Market (30:12) The DeFi United Recovery Fund (42:04) Fidelity Crypto Ad (42:45) Pump Fun’s Token Burn (55:58) Content of The Week -- Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, Rob and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

1 мая

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1 ч. 3 мин.
26 МАР.

Hivemind: State of The Market, Saylor’s End Game & AI Growth in China

This week, the Hivemind team breaks down the current market reaction as conflcit in Iran continues. We then deep dive into Delphi's recent trip to China, the end game for Michael Saylor, where to invest in Chinese AI and more. Enjoy! -- Follow Ceteris: ⁠https://x.com/ceterispar1bus⁠ Follow Jason: ⁠https://x.com/3xliquidated⁠ Follow Yan: https://x.com/YanLiberman Follow Jose: https://x.com/ZeMariaMacedo Follow Rawson: https://x.com/PonderingDurian Follow Empire: ⁠https://x.com/theempirepod⁠ Subscribe on YouTube: ⁠https://bit.ly/4jYEkBx⁠ Subscribe on Apple: ⁠https://bit.ly/3ECSmJ3⁠ Subscribe on Spotify: ⁠https://bit.ly/4hzy9lH⁠ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: ⁠https://blockworks.co/newsletter/⁠ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:16) State of The Market (17:30) What’s Saylor’s End Game? (24:55) AI Growth in China (49:37) Takeaways From Visiting China -- Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, the Hivemind team, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

26 мар.

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1 ч. 4 мин.
1 АПР.

Fed Governor Miran on Why Inflation Fears Are Overstated

Policy may be reacting to the wrong signals, as powerful structural forces quietly reshape inflation and the economy beneath the surface. In this episode live from the Digital Asset Summit, we sit down with Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran to unpack his recent dissent and why he believes inflation risks are overstated while the labor market deserves more support. We explore oil shocks vs policy lags, AI and deregulation as disinflationary forces, shifts in the neutral rate, and how stablecoins could reshape global dollar demand. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 02:11 Why Miran Dissented 04:51 Looking Through Oil Shocks 06:36 AI And Deregulation Disinflate 10:04 The Case For Neutral 12:30 What Sets Neutral Rates 16:12 Ads (Arkham, Blockworks IR) 17:50 Where "Running It Hot" Narrative Fails 25:02 Skinny Master Accounts 27:02 Stablecoins And Dollar Demand 30:51 Tokenized Deposits Or Stablecoins FOLLOW GUEST › Federal Reserve – https://x.com/federalreserve FOLLOW THE SHOW › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › ARKHAM Arkham is a crypto exchange and blockchain analytics platform that lets traders see inside. the wallets of top traders, funds, and influential players in crypto— and act on that information. Sign up: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions may be excluded from onboarding. DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

1 апр.

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33 мин.
21 ФЕВР.

Capital Is Leaving Big Tech For Gold And Energy | Weekly Roundup

This week, we're fresh off the inaugural TG Macro Conference in Nashville, unpacking all the biggest takeaways ranging from commodity cycles, gold, miners, oil, rates, and market psychology. We also reflect on trading lessons, risk management, and why in-person macro communities matter more than ever. Enjoy! — Follow Tony: https://x.com/TgMacro Follow Jared: https://x.com/dailydirtnap Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC March 24-26th! Use code FORWARD200 for $200 OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 — Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here: https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_FG&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=FG — Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:42) Inaugural TG Macro Conference (08:27) Demographics, Debt & Hard Lessons (12:18) Oil, Commodities, Miners (18:54) Gold, Energy & Commodity Cycles (24:21) Rates, Bonds & Global Markets (26:28) Ads (Coinbase) (27:21) Warsh, Yields, Bull Markets (33:09) Market Psychology & Bull Case For America (41:08) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #macro #investing #markets #stocks #stockmarket

21 февр.

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44 мин.

Blockworks connects investors and businesses in onchain capital markets. We give businesses a platform to earn trust and provide investors with the data and information they need to underwrite the asset class.

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