Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Bilal Hafeez
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We talk economics and markets with leading policymakers and investors.

  1. Ep. 354: Nader Itayim on Iran's Hormuz Stranglehold, GCC Tensions, and the Oil Market's Recovery

    −2 D

    Ep. 354: Nader Itayim on Iran's Hormuz Stranglehold, GCC Tensions, and the Oil Market's Recovery

    Nader is Argus' Middle East editor, based in Dubai. Argus is a leading independent provider of global energy and commodity market intelligence. Nader has more than 15 years of experience covering oil and gas in the region, and today heads up the company's Middle East and OPEC coverage. Prior to moving to Argus in 2015, Nader spent five years with the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) weekly in Cyprus. In this podcast, we discuss: Fragmented GCC Stances Iran's Hormuz "Stranglehold" The "Zero Enrichment" Stalemate The Hormuz Transit Toll US Naval Blockade Tactics Downstream Infrastructure Damage Returning Shut-in Production Bypassing the Strait

    47 min
  2. Ep. 353: Rory Johnston on the Hormuz Ceasefire, Oil Supply Losses, and Navigating Energy Security

    10 APR.

    Ep. 353: Rory Johnston on the Hormuz Ceasefire, Oil Supply Losses, and Navigating Energy Security

    Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast, we discuss: The Billion-Barrel Supply Gap Physical Insurance and Pipelines The "Toll Booth" Strait Sanctions as a Safety Valve Wealth vs. Shortages China's Strategic Resilience The "Unilateral Taco" Scenario Long-Term Energy Optionality

    50 min
  3. Ep. 352: Richard Schimel on Platform Evolution, Collaborative Culture, and Navigating Market Risks

    6 APR.

    Ep. 352: Richard Schimel on Platform Evolution, Collaborative Culture, and Navigating Market Risks

    Richard Schimel is the Co-Founder and Co-CIO of Cinctive Capital Management – a leading multi-strategy alternative asset manager. Rich has over 30 years of experience in the investment management industry.  Prior to Cinctive, Rich was Head of Aptigon Capital, a division of Citadel, where he served on the firm's Portfolio Committee. Before that, Rich founded and served as the CIO of Sterling Ridge Capital. Earlier in his career, Rich co-founded Diamondback Capital, where he co-managed the firm as well as portions of the firm's overall investment strategy. Before Diamondback, Rich began his buy-side career at SAC Capital, where he was a portfolio manager. In this podcast, we will discuss: The "Sweet Spot" for Alpha  Silos vs. Collaborative Culture  Protecting the Left Tail AI Beyond Tech: The Power Theme The Pendulum Swing to Hedge Funds Middle East: The New Financial Hub The "Pattern Recognition" of Talent   Fed and Sector Outlook

    38 min
  4. Ep. 351: Tyler Goodspeed on Recession Myths, the Reality of Economic Shocks, and Policy Hubris

    27 MARS

    Ep. 351: Tyler Goodspeed on Recession Myths, the Reality of Economic Shocks, and Policy Hubris

    Dr. Tyler Goodspeed chaired the White House Council of Economic Advisers from 202-21. During his tenure on the council, he also chaired the Economic Policy Committee at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). From 2021 through 2023, Tyler was a Director and Chief Economist at Greenmantle, a New York and London-based macroeconomic and geopolitical consulting firm. The author of four books on economic history, Tyler holds a PhD in economics from Cambridge University and a PhD in history from Harvard University, He is currently a Senior Fellow at the Adam Smith Institute in London and a member of the Geoeconomic Council of Advisers at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.   All views are his own and not any of the organisations he is affiliated with.  In this podcast, we discuss: The "Boom-Bust" Myth  Recessions as "Apophonies" Expansions Do Not Die of Old Age Policy Hubris The 1785 Structural Break Supply Shocks as Choke Points Misnaming the 2001 Recession The 2008 Energy and Mortgage Intersection Impairment of Creative Destruction Fidelity to Long-Run Trends

    44 min
  5. Ep. 350: Tomasz Nadrowski on China's Mineral War, Western Supply Chain Gaps, and Global Resilience

    20 MARS

    Ep. 350: Tomasz Nadrowski on China's Mineral War, Western Supply Chain Gaps, and Global Resilience

    Tomasz Nadrowski is a portfolio manager at the Amvest Terraden Critical Minerals Fund. He was a former Director at the World Economic Forum and Vice President of Business Development at AngloGold Ashanti, then the world's largest gold producer. Tomasz has spent over fifteen years managing commodity and mining equity portfolios for hedge funds and family offices across the U.S., Europe, and Asia.  He is fluent in seven languages and a regular contributor to Oxford Analytica. He combines deep industry knowledge with a strategic understanding of how resources, markets, and power intersect in today's shifting geopolitical landscape. He is also the host of the podcast Tyranny Today. In this podcast, we discuss: Geopolitics vs. the Commodity Cycle China's VAT Rebate and Value-Added Strategy Critical Choke Points: Rare Earths, Graphite, and Gallium Regulatory Roadblocks and the Stigma of "Dirty" Mining The Abdication of Western Capital Markets Human Capital Gaps and the "Octogenarian Engineer" Problem Geoeconomic Pricing: Disincentivising New Capacity From "Just-in-Time" to "Just-in-Case" Production Japan's "House of Brick" Model for Resilience The Mineral War and the "Soul" of AI A Shift Toward Oligopolistic Competition

    49 min
  6. Ep. 349: Nader Itayim on Iran's Regional War, the Hormuz Choke Point, and Global Energy Disruption

    13 MARS

    Ep. 349: Nader Itayim on Iran's Regional War, the Hormuz Choke Point, and Global Energy Disruption

    Nader is Argus' Middle East editor, based in Dubai. Argus is a leading independent provider of global energy and commodity market intelligence. Nader has more than 15 years of experience covering oil and gas in the region, and today heads up the company's Middle East and OPEC coverage. Prior to moving to Argus in 2015, Nader spent five years with the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) weekly in Cyprus. In this podcast, we discuss: Inevitable Escalation with Iran  Iran's Decentralised Resilience The Rise of Mojtaba Regional Retaliation Strategy The Hormuz Choke Point Modern Tanker War Risks 8 Million Barrels Offline Limits of the Global SPR Sentiment-Driven Volatility Houthi Autonomy and the Red Sea

    1 tim 2 min
  7. Ep. 348: Alex Campbell on Commodity Diversification, AI strategies, and the Moneyball Approach

    6 MARS

    Ep. 348: Alex Campbell on Commodity Diversification, AI strategies, and the Moneyball Approach

    Alex has 20 years of experience at the intersection of finance and data. He has been a global macro investor at firms like Bridgewater Associates and a proprietary volatility trader at Lehman Brothers. Prior to his career as a data-driven speculator, Alex received an MBA from Stanford Business School, an MPhil in Economics (Game Theory) from the University of Oxford, and a BA (Hons) in Economics from McGill University. In this podcast, we discuss: Fantasy Baseball to Prop Trading Diversification as the "Free Lunch" Gold vs. The Chinese Credit Bubble Silver as the "Money that Generates Electricity" The "Long API, Short Slides" Thesis China's Sceptical Data Copper vs. Iron Divergence The Future of Systematic Investing

    57 min
  8. Ep. 347: Raphaël Gallardo on Austrian Economics, Wobbling AI Bubbles, and Trump Risk Parity

    27 FEB.

    Ep. 347: Raphaël Gallardo on Austrian Economics, Wobbling AI Bubbles, and Trump Risk Parity

    Raphaël Gallardo is Chief Economist within the Cross-Asset team at Carmignac. Carmignac is a leading European investment management boutique established in 1989, with over EUR 40 bn in assets under management. Raphaël joined them in 2018. He started his career in 1997 at BNP Paribas, where he spent ten years as a Quantitative Analyst within the Risk Department, a Country-risk Economist, a Financial Engineer specialising in interest rate risk, and ultimately a cross-asset strategist. In 2007, he joined Axa IM as Head of Macroeconomic Research and moved to Rothschild & Cie Gestion in 2012 to occupy the same position. From 2013 to 2018, he was Cross-Asset Strategist at Ostrum Asset Management. Raphaël holds an Engineering Degree from École Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris. In this podcast, we discuss: Austrian Economics Framework Three "Wobbling" Bubbles The "Sad" AI Bubble Trump Risk Parity Portfolio Spain's "Virtuous Circle" France's Fiscal Existential Risk Japan's Vicious Circle China's Dual Economy Death of the Risk-Free Asset 2026–2027 Outlook

    46 min
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