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Business topics of some importance ragcast.substack.com

18/08/2020

Goodhart's Law

Companies and governments usually have some form of assigned metric that they measure and try to move towards desired outcomes with a system of incentives, rewards and punishments. Goodhart Law questions the validity of measures becoming a target, as once it does because a target, then it ceased to be a good target. This can be very complicated trap to avoid. The economist Charles Goodhart was referencing the adage he is known for about monetary policy, or another law linked to the same theme, which is Campbell’s law from the notable social scientist Donald Campbell about unintended consequences and cobra effects of public policy. There is also the Lucas critique from Robert Lucas who argues that you cannot predict changes in economic policy based on the relationship to historical data. This all dealt with public policy, but it can be very much true in the business world. What we can learn from these laws or critiques that applies to business in that we have to think really hard about what to really measure and how we move towards trying to accomplish goals or tasks against that measure because it can lead to bad data or bad outcomes. Bad data or bad outcomes in a sense that often people will apply a rational expectation of the model. Meaning that so long as they know the model that will learn how to game or manipulate it for their own benefit, which will always lead to bad data and bad outcomes. If you have a check the box task for an employee that is easily checked without having to go through the entire tasks, they will go for the easy check mark. If they learn how to use the systems to manipulate data to make them look good, then the data will be essentially useless to use. One of the clearest examples that could be made about all these complicated measuring of metrics is the one of the typical sales goals. If the goal is to sell X number of units in a given time period, then the salesperson will go out of their way to sell the stated goal of X number of units, even if they have to sell the units at a loss. The measure target was accomplished but it lead to a poor outcome for the business. So, one must think very deeply and apply counter thoughts and scenarios on any incentives used to move the needle of a metric used to measure a goal. Because once measured, could ceased to be any good. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit ragcast.substack.com

4 min
17/08/2020

The Working One

When one is immersed in employment, especially one that required a lot of time commitment, physical and mental labor, that person becomes mostly preoccupied by the occupation and what routine obligations remains of their day. When the world wants society change, which happens periodically though group effort from generation to generation, sometimes successful and sometimes not, the working one is usually regulated to spectator status in the participation of that change. Most people are spectators, as the change agents are more commonly bestowed to the adolescent and early adults. The social construct and peer groups of the young along with the passion that builds with internal conversations within the group, causes action. Universally and historically, that action is to take to the streets and confront the system of legislation. The barrier to gain access to the legislation is the enforcement guard, which has a boot to prevent crime and civil disorder. This confrontation is bound to flair into physical altercations, as different groups try different approaches to be heard and the message to be catapulted to the legislatures. The jolt of correction to the system is done. The consequences of either, not enough or too much can future cause more issues or cobra effects. The idyllic solution is hard to achieve because it takes patience and work, when the agents of change want it to happen too quickly, the outcomes are less than ideal. The working one is caught up to continue through the system and process without direct effort to the cause, but is sweep into the revolution, nonetheless. The importance of the working one through any crisis or political change, is to keep the flow of commerce moving. To have the mail delivered, the trains running on time, the food to be processed and energy and fuel generated is just few of the vital nervous systems of our society to keep it very much alive and as the scrolls of society are further written to keep it intact. Let us all give due respects to the working ones. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit ragcast.substack.com

3 min
16/08/2020

Price of Freedom

In history, a heroic story is often told of bravery and courage of people that unify to fight oppressive regimes or circumstances and through massive sacrifice of time, livelihoods and even life, they prevail under extraordinary odds to win their freedom. The price of freedom is shown through the cost or loss calculated of gaining that freedom, as if that once obtain, freedom is a glorious outcome where everyone mutually benefits without any downsides or cost. But the price of freedom, to either have or to maintain it, has a price all its own that is rarely discussed or even known. The price after freedom, is a system where meritocracy generally takes over. Where products and services often find success through influences of markets and celebrity status, where some rules are bent to game the system, and where freedoms often will generally come with some negative consequences by the yinyang of freedom. But even if this system, on the surface, generally appears to be unfair to many, the positive aspects to freedom does have more benefits to society than costs. For one, it will generally punish bad actors, innovation and merit generally wins over mediocrity and an accepted fair rule book and somewhat level playing field is established in this environment. As with any system or organization within, there is constant work needed to improve the system of freedom. To make it freer, fairer and more beneficial to all that can participate, that as a society or even a business community can work on 'truly fair' as the ultimate outcome of freedom. Freedom is one that takes very hard work to maintain, because it comes at the cost of sacrifice and work by everyone inside the system to continue its success and evolution towards the freer and fairer society. To build relationships and understanding with each other, to work together through common goals and objectives, to see everyone, regardless of who they are, as human beings with unique wishes, thoughts, goals and contributions that all contribute to the freedom experience. Force is usually applied to freedom, at minimum, to establish and out-of-bounds markers so that freedom itself, doesn’t runs wildly away and descends into chaos where no rules apply. Freedom is very delicate though, so too much force and it gets suppressed where rules upon rules are applied to move or change the game and playing field for the benefit of one over the other and it becomes nothing more than kingmaker and back to oppression. Freedom must be viewed as a referee. It is there to call the rules and make sure that everyone plays fairly, but this referee cannot itself call all the shots, play calls, and unearned scores of the game nor can it just walk off the field leaving the game all together. The price of freedom is one to keep in mind that there is a shared cost of livening in, keeping and maintaining freedom and that resided in a very narrow band in its most fair form, and on the outside of that is a cost of a suffering world. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit ragcast.substack.com

4 min
16/08/2020

Human Risk Equation

There is no easy or acceptable answer to the most challenging puzzle of human existence, and that is; what is the cost of a human life? Insurance risk management on human causalities on cost payout is usually done by economic value of a human being potential future economic productivity and earning and that of support of beneficiaries. So, a human being past and current earning, up to death, is used to calculate on an average life span moving forward. So those that have earned more, will receive larger payouts. Insurance itself, is a basically a pooled collection of policies to spread risk for a low probability event. The cost of death, however, is high. Not just factoring in future earning potential that will never be realized for beneficiaries that are dependent, but the fact that medical events, either by old age, illness from diseases, or catastrophic injury can result of that individual depleting savings, with some reports showing 80% of retirement saving depleted in the last 6-months of life. This often leaves beneficiaries with nothing or very little. The value of a human life, for most people, is beyond the economic value, but that of compassion and love from others of that human being. Love ones will often say that life should have no cost, and every resource and help from others must be poured in to help one human being to live if possible. There is a large portion of global society, that there is no insurance on a human life, nor the means for any support of beneficiary or probate. Death happens every second somewhere in the world, and many will die alone or without anything to leave behind. They say every human being will experience three deaths. 1) When you physically die. 2) When they either bury or cremated your corpse. 3) When no one is left around to remember you or speak of your name. But most of the current generations living today, all bear a deep compassion for human beings, and a deep desire to keep everyone alive, regardless of circumstances, place or time. So how can we balance the cost of a human life verses the cost of resources to keep everyone alive as long as possible, especially since we will all be forgotten by time eventually. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit ragcast.substack.com

3 min
25/05/2020

Stasis Point

There is a theory in evolutionary biology that depicts the changes that species incur through the glacially slow time period is not one of gradual small changes over a long period of time, but actually a short period of hyper change followed by a long time period of stasis where little or no changes takes place. Think of this as stair steps analogy of evolution biology. This isn’t a theory to explain away the gaps of the fossil record but the way molecularly how things work and how slowly a beneficial gene mutation must go through to catch on to the wider population of the species. One of the most profound discoveries in evolutionary biology is that many genes that we posses and express has no real benefits to fitness or anything else that is considered an advantage trait, but fillers that get stuffed in between that is just there as fillers, much like a pillow and the stuffing inside. This had me thinking that long periods of very slow change or stasis, may in fact, not really be a very bad thing. If it works for the earth and species over time, then it’s possible that long periods of stasis could in fact be beneficial. A period of stabilization and status quo is very common occurrences in business and personally, though a much shorter time period than evolutionary time frame, but none the less the same if scaled. We often fill the time with nothing, but fillers of leisure and idleness and months and years pass without much or any change, but these are the times that we experience the most and is what is common. To accept this as normal is not a just a way to cop out and tune out of your goals, but an understanding that hyper periods are short lived, and stasis is what takes place most of the time. Accept stasis but be prepared for the hyper period of change that will come. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit ragcast.substack.com

3 min
25/05/2020

The Main Pain

There is no other idiosyncrasy of a person than pain. Outwards looking into a person, we can never fully measure the pain a person is feeling or has gone through. No matter how detail or relatable the experience is communicated, it doesn’t seem to ever come through. A person’s main pain can be physical, physiological or emotional, but it’s best described as whatever stresses is placed upon that individual that it causes major disruption to their productive lives. The one that trends to the top in a lot of individuals is fear. Fear of the future, fear of death, fear of others, fear of the past, fear of the unknown, fear of all kinds. This tends to manifest itself in individuals in different ways when we experience a collective experience together. It is fascinating to see the differences of how one chooses to apply their fear in a pandemic, because there is a clear demarcation of those fears that goes in different directions. The problem is that we often use fear to project our irrational behaviors or responses on others. Because we feel that they are not understanding or insensitive to our own position. This causes a theater curtain to fall and block conversations and a lost of personal connection. That is why people tend to group together within the same ideology, faith, traditions, customs and beliefs. It is much easier to connect to people you can communicate your pain with when they return the same awareness or relation your pain instead of criticizing or mocking it. Since we are all not the same and we all do not share the same main pain, we have chosen to cope with this idiosyncrasy by staying in tribes. There seems to be rare peacemakers that can communicate and bring together warring tribes from time to time, but it’s rare and if you are one. We need you! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit ragcast.substack.com

3 min
25/05/2020

The Comets

When things don’t make sense and you searching for answers or if you are forever exploring the wealth of knowledge and wisdom that is bountiful in just about every subject matter, you are bound to come across a polluted asteroid belt of experts. Some qualified, some not so much. Some have large megaphones while others have narrow-minded agendas veering more political and ideological than anything else. Trying to steer your starship mind towards something more attuned to the factual truth is a brutal and damaging journey. Most of the time we just really don’t know. We haven’t expanded our knowledge and know-how past the asteroid belt and forever stuck in a mindless orbit of our own trapped mind. There is, however, some hope. A spark to charge the rockets to fire up, because we see something beyond the belt. A glowing comet streaking quickly across the sky, with its own path and journey that takes it else where to another galaxy. These rare comets are the quiet experts that the masses never heard of nor probably care, because they speak a different language. The language of veracity. When you listen, read or become a student of the comet, you begin to really understand the Socrates paradox. It is then you look back at the asteroid belt to find some real purpose on how this cauldron of misunderstanding, half-truths, fear mongering, hysteria, political propaganda and unawareness and naivety exist in the galaxy. I’m sure it has some purpose, as noisy that it is, as we are all still stuck in the asteroid belt. A bolide does fall from the sky from time to time. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit ragcast.substack.com

3 min
25/05/2020

Human Interaction

When considering social distancing, or what I would rightly label as physical distancing, there is a large deduction of what really binds us together in human social behavior. There are certain hormones in mammals, called social hormones that are released with humans, in the flesh, when interacting. These are oxytocin and vasopressin and they serve a unique role in helping us strengthen positive social behavior bonds with each other. In absence of the interaction and physical distancing, we can default to our paranoid reptilian brain, where everyone is suspect as prey (a lack of trust), with mass does of fight/flight stress hormones are released and this causes our bodies energy to be devoted towards hypersensitiveness of the fright in the world. The pattern keeps continuing with a large dose of narrative driven current events that is often negatively political or sensational to our eyes and ears, along with a social norm that everyone must keep away from each other out of fear of harm. The more this continues, the more the separation and harm one will do to themselves and society. This heighten stage of stress hormones pumping adrenaline and norepinephrine causes fatigue, depression and a weaken immune system over time. None are good for you. I’m seeing the stress being played out in social media, where communication is becoming more vile, people are beginning to cast blame and shame, compliance and social order is confusing, and the uncertainty for the future has become a desperation of security and normalcy that no one agrees to. We only need to listen to ourselves and to begin the process of bringing back our social hormones. Work and hobbies will only bring so much. The human touch is the spirit that will bring most of normal back. We all need a hello from a stranger, a friendly handshake, a pat on the back, a close hug, that common bond we can all find in each other, if we only can start again by being the first to say, “How are you?” This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit ragcast.substack.com

3 min

Business topics of some importance ragcast.substack.com

Creator

Ragcast
Years Active

2019 - 2020
Episodes

37
Rating

Clean
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© Joe WIlliams
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The Ragcast