Excess Returns

Excess Returns
  • 0.0 (0)
  • INVESTING
  • UPDATED WEEKLY

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

  1. 7 HR AGO

    It’s Only a Question of When | Nir Kaissar on AI, Private Credit and the Regime Shift Investors Miss

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Bloomberg Opinion columnist Nir Kaissar for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, AI, interest rates, private credit, small caps, and the risks investors may be underestimating. Nir shares his unexpected predictions for 2026, challenges the consensus on Fed rate cuts, explains why high profitability may be putting a floor under valuations, and offers a thoughtful framework for thinking about AI, concentration risk, and the future of public versus private markets. This is a deep dive into today’s most important investing debates, grounded in history and focused on what may come next. Topics Covered Nir’s unexpected predictions for 2026 and why mass adoption of autonomous vehicles may arrive faster than investors expect Why the consensus on lower interest rates in 2026 may be wrong and what the two year Treasury yield is signaling The impact of tariffs, affordability pressures, and corporate margins on inflation Why high corporate profitability may support elevated stock market valuations even if returns slow The role of earnings growth in driving S&P 500 returns and why 2015 to 2024 may not repeat Is AI more like 1995 or 1999 in the internet cycle and what that means for long term investors The convergence of big tech companies around AI and the risks of a more zero sum competitive landscape Why companies staying private longer could hurt retail investors and distort public market indices Concentration risk in the S&P 500 and what it means for long term portfolio construction Opportunities and risks in small cap stocks, including the importance of quality screens The growth of private credit markets and the hidden risks investors may not see Why Treasuries may still be the cleanest shirt in the laundry during a crisis Lessons from 20 years of running strategies and what Nir has changed his mind about Timestamps 00:00 Nir’s 2026 predictions and the rise of Waymo 05:00 Interest rates, Trump, and the outlook for Fed policy 08:40 Tariffs, inflation, and corporate margins 12:00 Valuations, profitability, and future S&P 500 returns 16:00 AI compared to the internet era and long term investing lessons 19:00 Public versus private markets and regulatory concerns 32:00 Concentration risk and the Magnificent Seven 39:00 Small caps, quality screens, and value opportunities 47:00 Private credit risks and default cycles 54:30 Nir’s investment philosophy and 20 year lessons

    1h 5m

  2. 2 DAYS AGO

    $70 Billion. 18 Straight Outperforming Years | David Giroux on the Index Trap and AI Hype

    David Giroux, CIO of T. Rowe Price and manager of the Capital Appreciation strategy, joins Excess Returns for a wide ranging discussion on market valuation, AI investing, Mag 6 dynamics, utilities, healthcare, fixed income, and how to think independently in volatile markets. David shares his framework for exploiting structural market inefficiencies, why market drawdowns can create opportunity, how he evaluates the S&P 500 at the micro level, and what investors are getting wrong about AI, profit margins, and the current cycle. Main topics covered in this episode • Exploiting structural market inefficiencies in GARP stocks, high yield, and double B credit • Why market drawdowns often lower forward risk and increase expected returns • Strategic equity allocation during periods of fear and volatility • Rethinking S&P 500 valuation through 500 company bottom up analysis • The changing composition of the index and its impact on profit margins • Where the most overvalued and undervalued areas of the market may be today • AI investing framework including Nvidia, AMD, cloud providers, and software risk • How AI could reshape margins, labor productivity, and enterprise software • Differences between today and the dotcom bubble • Overweight positioning in utilities and healthcare and the thesis behind each • Fixed income positioning including the belly of the Treasury curve and fiscal risk • Commodities, gold, and fiscal sustainability • Lessons for portfolio managers on independent thinking and making high conviction bets Timestamps 00:00 Market drawdowns and forward returns 02:09 Exploiting structural market inefficiencies 06:28 Strategic equity allocation during selloffs 11:22 Is the market expensive and how to value the S&P 500 15:00 Profit margins and index composition 17:13 Where valuation excess exists outside the Mag 6 20:38 How to think about AI and enterprise adoption 27:18 AI disruption risk across sectors 39:20 AI versus the dotcom bubble 42:30 Apple versus Meta and capital allocation 46:53 Overweight utilities and healthcare 52:57 Fixed income opportunities and risks 57:32 Commodities, gold, and fiscal concerns 01:00:15 Lessons for new portfolio managers

    1h 5m

  3. 5 DAYS AGO

    Lowest Cash Levels Ever | Kevin Muir on Markets at Extremes

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Kevin Muir, author of The Macro Tourist, for a wide-ranging conversation on market sentiment, asset rotation, and the growing signals of stress beneath the surface of global markets. Kevin explains why extreme bullishness can be dangerous, why gold and commodities may be flashing warning signs, and how shifts in currencies, energy, and global capital flows could reshape portfolios in the years ahead. From hedging strategies to volatility, from AI-driven concentration to international diversification, this discussion focuses on how investors can think clearly in an environment where traditional relationships are breaking down. Topics covered: Why extreme bullish sentiment can be a warning sign for markets The meaning of “buying straw hats in the winter” and how to think about hedging Market breadth, small caps, and whether rotations are healthy or late cycle Gold, silver, and what precious metals signal about financial stress Cross-asset volatility and why correlations are changing Energy markets, commodities, and the long-term impact of underinvestment Global capital flows, foreign ownership of US assets, and currency risk The US dollar, trade deficits, and implications for international investors Portfolio construction lessons from bonds, commodities, and FX How macro regime shifts can change risk management and diversification Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and market sentiment overview 03:00 Buying protection and the straw hat analogy 07:00 Sentiment indicators and market confirmation 12:00 Market rotations, small caps, and late-cycle risks 18:00 Gold, silver, and precious metals as warning signals 23:00 Bonds, currencies, and broken correlations 29:00 Energy markets and commodity underinvestment 37:00 Global capital flows and foreign ownership of US assets 44:00 The US dollar, trade deficits, and FX volatility 52:00 Macro regime shifts and portfolio construction lessons

    1h 10m

  4. 2 FEB

    The Market That Bites Back | Victoria Greene on Surviving the Badger Market

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Victoria Greene of G Squared Private Wealth for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, macro risk, portfolio construction, and how investors should think about 2026 and beyond. Victoria brings a pragmatic, risk-aware framework to investing, blending top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals, technicals, and a strong focus on cash flow, diversification, and policy risk. We cover everything from the rise of what she calls a badger market, to AI capex, market concentration, inflation risk, and why policy error, not valuation, is what historically ends bull markets. Main topics covered • Why valuation is a poor market timing tool and what actually ends bull markets • The concept of a badger market and how investors should mentally prepare for volatility • Cash flow never lies and how Victoria evaluates business quality • Diversification in 2026 and why international, commodities, and value matter more now • Risks and opportunities in the labor market, AI-driven disruption, and productivity • The K-shaped economy and what it means for consumers and corporate earnings • 60/40 portfolios, alternatives, and where commodities fit today • AI investing from infrastructure to software and cybersecurity • Yield curve dynamics, inflation risk, and portfolio positioning • Active vs passive investing in a concentrated market • How policy decisions and election dynamics influence markets Timestamps 00:00 Intro and why valuation does not kill bull markets 01:40 Investment philosophy and macro first portfolio construction 06:00 Cash flow never lies explained 07:40 Diversification beyond US large caps 10:00 Market expectations and big tech earnings risk 11:00 What is a badger market 12:40 Is the 60 40 portfolio dead 15:00 Why Victoria remains constructive on markets 18:00 Politics, sentiment, and market noise 21:00 Policy error vs valuation as the real risk 26:40 The K-shaped economy and consumer health 31:10 Hard data vs soft data disconnect 34:10 Labor market risks and data reliability 36:40 Yield curve steepening and inflation risk 41:40 Portfolio positioning in a higher inflation world 43:00 How to invest in AI beyond the Mag 7 47:20 Where we are in the AI cycle 49:30 Active management challenges and opportunities 53:00 Valuation, planning, and long-term return expectations

    1 hr

  5. 31 JAN

    Last Call: January 2026 | AI Capex, Private Credit Problems and the Unstable Market

    Follow Last Call on Spotify Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts Join Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler for the premiere episode of Last Call, a new monthly market wrap show where we go beyond the headlines to deliver actionable investment insights — and have a little fun along the way. Instead of focusing on index performance or short-term moves, we step back and connect the dots between macro instability, narrative shifts, options market signals, private credit risk, AI capital spending, and the changing nature of the Magnificent Seven. Featuring conversations with Brent Kochuba from SpotGamma, Ben Hunt from Perscient, Kai Wu from Sparkline Capital, and clips from our recent interviews with Liz Ann Sonders and Aswath Damodaran, the episode blends market structure, behavioral finance, valuation discipline, and long-term investing context to help investors understand what is really driving today’s market environment — and how to think about it going forward. Main Topics: • Why this is not a traditional market recap and how Last Call is designed to be more useful for investors • Instability versus uncertainty — and why today’s market feels different• Loss of trust in institutions, policy, and global systems and its impact on markets • What options market flows reveal about hidden market risks and sudden volatility• How private credit has reached bubble-like conditions and why narrative risk matters • The debate over retail and retirement account exposure to private credit• Why valuation discipline looks different when correlations rise across asset classes • Aswath Damodaran on trimming positions, raising cash, and the difficulty of finding uncorrelated assets • How the Magnificent Seven are changing from asset-light to asset-heavy businesses • AI capital expenditure, historical spending booms, and why infrastructure builders often underperform • Whether this AI cycle is truly different from railroads, telecom, and past technology booms Timestamps 00:00 — Intro and opening clips 01:10 — What Last Call is and why this format exists 04:30 — Instability versus uncertainty in today’s market 09:58 — Loss of trust, gold, and historical parallels 13:18 — Brent Kochuba on options flows and hidden market stress 25:17 — How options dislocations explain sudden market drops 25:40 — Ben Hunt on private credit narrative risk 28:00 — Why private credit exposure is everywhere 32:32 — Retail access versus restrictions in private credit 36:19 — What happens if the private credit bubble breaks 39:28 — Aswath Damodaran on raising cash and trimming positions 47:08 — The changing nature of the Magnificent Seven 47:42 — Kai Wu on AI capex and asset-heavy tech 50:48 — Why high capital spending often leads to underperformance 56:01 — Historical parallels from railroads to the dot-com boom

    1h 7m

  6. 29 JAN

    The Bubble You Can’t Exit | Dan Rasmussen on the Private Equity Trap

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined again by Dan Rasmussen of Verdad Advisors for a wide-ranging conversation that challenges some of the most popular narratives in markets today. From private equity and private credit risks to AI-driven capital cycles and overlooked opportunities in biotech and international equities, Dan offers a deeply research-driven perspective on where investors may be misallocating capital and where future returns could emerge. Alongside Justin and special guest co-host Kai Wu, the discussion connects valuation, incentives, and innovation in a market environment shaped by concentration, leverage, and technological change. Main topics covered • Why private equity performance continues to disappoint and where the biggest structural risks are emerging • The growing stress in private credit and what rising bankruptcies signal for lower middle-market deals • Why democratizing private equity through 401ks, interval funds, and ETFs may create more problems than solutions • How AI CapEx is changing the economics of Big Tech and why asset-light models may be getting worse, not better • The case for diversifying away from U.S. concentration toward international markets and international small value • Why bubbles are often necessary for innovation and how to think about AI through that historical lens • How investors may be underestimating valuation and growth bankruptcy risk in the Mag 7 • Why biotech is one of the hardest sectors to model and how Verdad rebuilt its framework from scratch • How intangible value, clinical trial data, specialist ownership, and peer momentum can improve biotech investing • What capital starvation, M&A dynamics, and global competition mean for biotech’s future returns Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and market narratives 02:20 Revisiting private equity risks and performance 06:58 Private credit stress and bankruptcy signals 10:58 Private equity in 401ks and interval fund risks 14:52 Private assets in ETFs and liquidity concerns 15:45 Why bubbles drive innovation and capital formation 20:13 AI CapEx, Mag 7 concentration, and valuation risk 25:24 International diversification and market leadership 29:41 Why Verdad turned to biotech research 37:13 Rebuilding biotech valuation and quality metrics 44:26 Clinical trial data and peer momentum insights 49:17 Portfolio construction and long-short biotech strategies 51:00 Capital starvation, AI, and biotech’s setup 53:58 Research culture, humility, and evolving quant models

    55 min

  7. 28 JAN

    30 Times Earnings Isn't Expensive | Chris Mayer & Robert Hagstrom on the Labels That Destroy Returns

    In this episode of our new show The 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom explore how the words investors use quietly shape the decisions they make — often in destructive ways. From labels like “cheap,” “expensive,” and “compounder” to debates about valuation, concentration, and AI, the conversation digs into how language collapses uncertainty into false certainty. Drawing on general semantics, mental models, and decades of investing experience, they explain why confusing maps for reality leads investors astray — and how clearer thinking can change how you see markets, risk, and long-term returns. Topics discussed include: Why paying 30x earnings can be rational when return on invested capital stays high How the word “is” smuggles hidden assumptions into investment decisions The difference between a company being a compounder and having compounded in the past Why valuation debates are really disagreements about time horizon The “map vs. territory” problem in financial statements and market data Market concentration, index construction, and why benchmarks can mislead investors How language shapes narratives around value, growth, and risk AI investing, capital allocation, and separating durable businesses from hype Why many binary true-or-false questions are traps for investors How long-term investors think in decades, not quarters

    1h 15m

  8. 27 JAN

    60-20-20 Changed Everything | Tony Greer on the New Portfolio Regime

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with TG Macro founder Tony Greer to explore why markets are increasingly signaling a loss of faith in institutions and what that means for investors heading into 2026. Tony lays out a framework that connects inflation, central bank credibility, political risk, global regime change, and shifting consumer behavior into a coherent macro narrative. From gold and precious metals to miners, commodities, cyclicals, and the evolving role of AI, this conversation bridges big-picture macro themes with actionable market insights for both traders and long-term investors. Topics covered: • Why gold is rallying as trust in institutions erodes • Central banks, inflation, and the long-term consequences of monetary policy • The shift from a 60-40 portfolio to alternatives and real assets • Precious metals versus technology leadership in a changing market regime • Gold miners, industrial miners, and uranium as core themes • Consumer inflation, food prices, and purchasing power on Main Street • Big Food, Big Pharma, and the broader trust breakdown • Legal, political, and geopolitical risks shaping investor behavior • The end of globalization and the rise of domestic supply chains • Copper, energy, and natural resources in an economic recovery • AI, semiconductors, and signs of a leadership transition • Prediction markets and new tools for understanding market expectations • Financials, airlines, and overlooked cyclical opportunities • How to think about risk management when macro regimes change Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and the collapse of trust in institutions 02:00 Why gold is responding to credibility loss, not fear 05:00 Central banks, inflation, and monetary excess 08:20 Purchasing power and real-world inflation pressures 11:00 Big Food, Big Pharma, and consumer awareness 14:00 Healthcare, fraud, and institutional breakdown 16:30 Legal system risk and political credibility 18:30 Global factors, sanctions, and the shift away from globalization 21:00 Precious metals, miners, and natural resource leadership 25:00 The three mining themes driving performance 29:00 Stocks and gold rising together in a new regime 32:00 Gold market structure and long-term trend analysis 36:00 Japan, global bond markets, and gold demand 39:00 Investing versus trading precious metals 43:00 Copper, supply chains, and tech partnerships 47:00 AI leadership, capital rotation, and market risk 51:00 Financials, airlines, and cyclical signals 57:30 What would break the thesis and risk management signals

    1h 1m
See All (456)

Trailer

About

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

Information

  • Creator
    Excess Returns
  • Years Active
    2019 - 2026
  • Episodes
    456
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 905628
  • Show Website
    Excess Returns

You Might Also Like