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22 Oct · Video

What will computer chips look like in 2045?

I spent two days touring Intel’s most advanced fab and talking to its technical leadership to understand what the chips of the future will look like. A lot of what's coming next – gate-all-around transistors, backside power, CFET, hybrid bonding – is hard to follow without actually seeing it, so we made all the awesome animated explainers that I wish I had while I was prepping. I also asked Intel’s leadership how the semiconductor industry will cope with the enormous shock in demand from AI. AI compute has grown 3x a year for the last decade, but according to Intel's CTO, Intel could only double leading-edge wafer production with today’s global stock of chipmaking tools. What kinds of tricks can foundries pull to extend this crossover point where demand surges way ahead of supply? This was a totally new format for us - hope you enjoy! I also made flashcards for the concepts I had to learn to prep for this episode here. Watch on YouTube; read the transcript. Sponsors WorkOS helps you do business with enterprises. It gives you access to all the features most commonly required by enterprises: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, audit logs, and more. It’s easy to plug these features in — it only takes a few lines of code — and WorkOS is releasing new functionality all the time, including things like auth for agents. If you want to join the 3,000+ companies that rely on WorkOS, go to workos.com Jane Street built a powerful tool called magic-trace to help analyze and debug their trading systems. It only exists because one engineer noticed a feature on Intel chips called Processor Trace and thought it’d be valuable to build on top of. Now, traders and developers across Jane Street use magic-trace every single day! If you want to be trusted to pursue the ideas you think matter most, Jane Street is hiring. Go to janestreet.com/dwarkesh Antithesis’ testing platform lets you perfectly reproduce every single bug you find. That’s because it runs on a fully deterministic computer, which strips out all the unpredictability that can make certain bugs flaky and hard to pin down. To build it, Antithesis found every source of non-determinism in Intel’s x86 architecture and either sealed it off or replaced it with a controlled simulation. Learn more at antithesis.com/dwarkesh Timestamps (00:00:00) – Intro (00:00:47) – How Intel brings up a new process node (00:03:22) – What Intel learned from 10nm (00:06:28) – From planar transistors to gate-all-around (00:13:13) – Why High-NA EUV pays off for Intel but not TSMC (00:19:20) – Could chips have evolved completely differently? (00:23:33) – Inside Intel’s “Hot Topics” meeting (00:29:30) – Replacing copper wires with ruthenium (00:32:41) – Why stacked transistors take a decade to ship (00:39:45) – Hybrid bonding and the chip-to-chip bottleneck (00:48:00) – There aren’t enough tools to 10x chip production (00:53:14) – Can Intel catch up to TSMC? (01:01:02) – Terafab, and rethinking the fab from scratch This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

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