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2 DAYS AGO

Ziad Daoud Explains How War with Iran Will Reshape the Gulf

Regardless of whether the war with Iran continues, it seems likely to have a lasting impact on the Gulf states. They may have to rebuild damaged pipelines and other infrastructure, or create new ones that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. They might have to spend more money on their own defense, or intensify a push to diversify their economies away from oil. New political alliances may be formed, and old ones could fall apart. In this episode, we bring back Ziad Daoud, chief emerging markets economist at Bloomberg Economics, to discuss the many ways the war could impact the region for years to come. Read more: Gulf Airspace Disruptions From Iran War Hits Seychelles Tourism Bankers Start Weighing UAE Return Hours After US-Iran Ceasefire Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

2 days ago

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45 min
4 DAYS AGO

The Big Macro Force That's Been Driving Stocks Higher for Years

Stocks have gone up over the years because corporate earnings continue to grow. That part is straightforward. But in addition to rising stock prices, we've also seen rising stock market valuations. For years, investors have talked about stocks being unreasonably priced, and yet they haven't reverted to historical norms. But perhaps there's a good explanation for this, beyond just animal spirits. Jonathan Heathcote is an economist at the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, who recently co-authored a paper titled, A Macroeconomic Perspective on Stock Market Valuation Ratios. Along with co-authors Andrew Atkeson and Fabrizio Perri, they argue that while stocks may look rich on metrics like price-to-earnings ratios, they look a lot better when based on free cash flow. In other words, because companies haven't had to invest much, their equity is more valuable. Furthermore, labor's share of the profits — the percentage that goes to workers relative to capital — has been on the decline. Of course, these days the big story is about how big, profitable tech companies are spending a fortune on capital expenditure for the AI buildout. So we talked to Jonathan about his research and discuss the possibility that this trend in free cash flow growth could reverse, and therefore hit stock market valuations, too. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

4 days ago

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36 min
4 DAYS AGO

Assessing Asset Volatility and Iran War Threats With BlackRock's Mike Pyle

Barry speaks with Mike Pyle, Senior Managing Director, is the Deputy Head of BlackRock’s Portfolio Management Group (PMG). They discuss the durable economic shocks that could result from the war with Iran including energy security. They also discuss his time in the Biden administration as Deputy National Security Advisor for International Economics. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

4 days ago

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1hr 4min
6 APR

Gina Raimondo on How European Industry Is Getting Crushed

The relationship between the US and Europe is deteriorating along both security and economic dimensions. The Trump administration has imposed tariffs, while also being sharply critical of NATO allies. So what are European leaders to do? Hope things go back to normal in the US? Or perhaps become closer with China? Our guest on this episode says the latter would be a grave mistake. This episode was recorded live on April 1 at the DC headquarters of the Council on Foreign Relations. We spoke with Gina Raimondo, now a CFR Distinguished Fellow, who previously served as the commerce secretary in the Biden Administration, and prior to that was the governor of Rhode Island. She discusses her view that European industry is being hollowed out by China, and that the only path forward is a global, unified, non-China trading bloc, which is an idea that's being thwarted by the Trump administration. We also talk about the legacy of the CHIPS Act, and her fears about AI creating mass unemployment and destabilizing our democracy. Read more: US Lawmakers Propose Crackdown on Chip Tool Sales to China Cheap Chinese Cars Are Waiting on Detroit's Doorstep Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

6 Apr

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46 min
5 DAYS AGO

How Shipping Insurance Really Works During a War

When the conflict with Iran started, some of the first headlines we saw had to do with shipping insurance. Marine insurers were said to be canceling war risk coverage for vessels going through the Strait of Hormuz. Premiums were said to surge. Meanwhile, the Trump administration announced it would offer its own insurance for ships traversing the Persian Gulf, in an effort to get things moving again. So why is insurance such a crucial part of maritime trade? And how does the system actually work? In this episode, we speak with Dorothea Ioannou, CEO of the American P&I Club, and Steven Ogullukian, the club's reinsurance director. We talk about the different roles of insurers, reinsurers, insurance clubs, and why ships need to have separate coverage for things like war, liability and hull loss. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

5 days ago

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53 min
2 DAYS AGO

Trump Blockades Iran, Hungary Rejects Orban, The UK's Lost Year

Your morning briefing. All the news you need to start your day.On today's podcast:(1) US President Donald Trump’s threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz after talks with Iran collapsed over the weekend risked widening a war now entering its seventh week, lifting oil prices and raising the prospect of further economic pain around the globe.(2) Oil surged while stocks and bonds fell after President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, heightening tensions with Iran following the collapse of weekend peace talks.(3) The UK will not take part in the proposed US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, setting up yet another point of contention between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Keir Starmer over the conflict in Iran.(4) Peter Magyar, Hungary’s next prime minister, outlined sweeping changes after ending Viktor Orban’s 16-year rule in a landslide election victory that will redefine the country’s ties with the European Union, Russia and the US administration of President Donald Trump.(5) Hungary’s forint surged to a four-year high after Prime Minister Viktor Orban conceded defeat in Sunday’s election, with the pro-European opposition’s victory expected to help unlock billions of euros in European Union funding.Podcast Conversation: Iran Talks Show Limits of Pakistan Peace Push: Karishma Vaswani See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

2 days ago

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16 min
4 DAYS AGO

Anthropic Model Scare Sparks Bessent, Powell Warning to Bank CEOs

Watch Scarlet and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.Bloomberg Intelligence hosted by Paul Sweeney and Alexandra Semenova-Katherine Chiglinsky, Bloomberg US Finance Team Leader, discusses Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Fed Chair Jay Powell summoning Wall Street leaders to an urgent meeting on concerns that the latest AI model from Anthropic PBC will usher in an era of greater cyber risk.- Poonam Goyal, Senior U.S. E-Commerce and Retail Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses the latest on Nike’s recovery.According to Bloomberg Intelligence: Nike’s turnaround is taking longer than initially expected though it's coming into clearer focus, with momentum building in North America and a defined roadmap for China.-Steve Man, Bloomberg Intelligence Global Autos and Industrials Analyst, discusses how the auto industry is being impacted by the Iran war. According to Bloomberg Intelligence: The Iran war could add as much as $385 per vehicle in aluminum-related cost pressure, though that impact alone is manageable.EV makers such as Tesla, Rivian and Lucid face greater exposure than GM and Ford because battery electric vehicles use 50-75% more aluminum. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

4 days ago

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19 min
5 DAYS AGO

Humiliation Ritual

Katie and Matt discuss Satoshi Nakamoto, spotting liars, Katie being a witch, Bill Ackman doing stuff, Universal Music Group, SPARCs, asymmetric derivatives trades, Matt’s dream money management career, doomsday funds, Elon Musk’s big thing, the SpaceX IPO, Grok for bankers, humiliating IPO pitches and some ETF stuff for the ETF fans. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

5 days ago

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31 min
1 DAY AGO

‘Economic Terrorism’ Warning, Trump Vs The Pope, Ukraine’s Power Broker

Your morning briefing. All the news you need to start your day.On today's podcast:(1) President Donald Trump began a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a move intended to raise pressure on Tehran, even as the two countries weigh another round of talks to secure a longer-term ceasefire.(2) HSBC Chief Executive Officer Georges Elhedery said the conflict in the Middle East and broader “uncertainties” are beginning to dent client confidence as investors navigate an increasingly volatile global landscape.(3) Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni called Donald Trump’s tirade against Pope Leo XIV “unacceptable,” exposing a growing rift with the US leader over his war on Iran.(4) Sales at LVMH’s biggest division fell at the start of this year as the war in the Middle East crimped demand for Louis Vuitton and Dior products.(5) Hungary’s next leader Peter Magyar said he won’t stand in the way of Ukraine receiving a €90 billion ($105 billion) loan from the European Union that was blocked by the outgoing Prime Minister Viktor Orban.(6) A Ukrainian war hero is taking President Zelenskiy's office in a new direction, and might offer a glimpse of Ukraine’s political future.Podcast Conversation: Is the Pope American? No, He's Catholic See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

1 day ago

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22 min
3 APR

Scott Bok Explains What Investment Bankers Actually Do All Day

There's obviously a lot of talk these days about AI and possible destruction of white collar jobs. Intuitively bankers might be expected to be victims of this. But before we can answer whether AI can disrupt an industry, or a line of work, we have to know what the job actually entails. What do investment bankers actually do, and why are they paid for it? To answer this question, we speak with Scott Bok, the longtime former CEO of the investment bank Greenhill. Scott is also the author of the book Surviving Wall Street: A Tale of Triumph, Tragedy, and Timing. We discuss how the industry changed in his career, what type of people thrive in it, and how AI could change the nature of the profession. Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

3 Apr

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54 min

Drawing on the journalistic strength of its global newsroom of journalists and analysts, Bloomberg’s lineup of podcasts is a mix of on the news reporting and narrative style programs.