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قبل ٤ أيام

The Fed's In A Finger Trap: Cut Rates or Fight Inflation?

CPI inflation hit 3.8%, the highest since 2023. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was installed to deliver a fed rate cut in 2026, but the numbers say he can't. While the S&P 500 hits record highs on surging AI stocks, the rest of the market is lagging and the fed rate decision has become a central bank finger trap. Can Warsh pull free? Or is stagflation the new reality? Let's find out On The Markets. This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Chris Sipes CFP®, Daren Blonski CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir examine: • Look at rate hikes and cuts over the year. What does the rest of 2026 hold in store? What could either decision do to the market? • Inflation wipes out wage growth completely for the first time in 3 years. • Chris has a chart dating back to the Civil War that shows that market has only been this expensive one other time in history. 0:00 What is the Fed Finger Trap? 8:00 Rate hikes and cuts price in for 2026 9:49 Investor sentiment 12:06 Inflation wipes out wage gains for first time in 3 years 16:30 Producer price index rising 20:20 2 year treasury rate rising 22:35 Stock market is 2nd most expensive ever 25:58 What railroads tell us about AI 28:20 Small cap vs. large cap over the decades 30:18 Homeowner equity at highest levels since 1960 35:00 Some good news 38:56 S&P heat map 45:03 10 year rate soars, inflation is alive and well 47:20 Oil 48:37 Ugly close on bonds Video of this episode here: https://youtube.com/live/Khj_z6-QduU Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis _______________________________________ Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance. The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

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Bitcoin Explained To A Guy Who Knows ZERO

Ok Cypto Bros, with the 100k milestone upon us, it's finally time to do an episode on Bitcoin. As basic an episode as possible, because while host Daren Blonski CFP® has been wise to the coin world for some time, co-host Dano Weir only knows what he's seen in a few headlines. So for educational purposes only, let's have a based conversation about the coins that exist but you can't hold in your hand. Maximalists will probably laugh and deniers might scoff. We just want to have an open conversation about (yes, at the time of this writing 12/10/24) the 7th largest asset class in the market. This episode is perfect if you know nothing about crypto and at least want to know what people are talking about. This episode is for educational purposes only (not investment advice) for our clients and potential clients, to shed some light on a reality of the market. It's All Money is powered by Sonoma Wealth Advisors Learn more about Sonoma Wealth here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/ Video also available for every episode of It’s All Money on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@sonomawealth Refrences: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cryptocurrency.asp https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/cryptocurrency https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/08/15/carbon-emissions-from-ai-and-crypto-are-surging-and-tax-policy-can-help https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgr0dyy152jo https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/analyst-warns-of-leverage-driven-xrp-pump-as-token-flips-tether/ar-AA1v5Enr https://www.history.com/news/san-jose-shipwreck-battle-2 https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/121815/bitcoins-price-history.asp _______________ Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax. The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

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Is Stagflation Coming? What the Markets Are Telling Us Right Now

Search analytics platforms are seeing a bump this week in the term “stagflation”, a stagnant economy that is also experiencing inflation. Does the narrative hold true in the numbers? Or is it just another storyline blowing in the wind? Let’s find out On The Markets. This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Chris Sipes CFP® and Sonoma Wealth Marketing Director Dano Weir examine: • The Strait of Hormuz seems as available as a pop-up food truck right now. In the event of closure, how does the US stack up in oil reserves? • How the K-shaped economy can result in consumer sentiment at an all-time low while the purchases are at an all-time high. • What price-action in bitcoin and gold could be signaling about this quarter’s market potential. • The portfolio tracking that’s on pace for it’s greatest year since 1933. 0:00 What is stagflation? 5:10 Worldwide oil reserves 8:20 Investor sentiment 17:34 Price changes expected in the next year 20:18 Food inflation 21:00 How inflation affects portfolios 23:10 Permanent portfolios on track for best year since 1933 25:09 S&P 500 and Nasdaq last 3 years 30:10 Russell 2000 trend 30:57 Developed markets looking strong 31:42 Emerging markets looking strong 32:30 Bonds trading sideways 35:40 Gold looking a little off... 37:27 Bitcoin showing a little strength Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/ Audio also available on Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/on-the-markets/id1802984526 Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/2YqyNLN7mcBApS5RL2piAj _______________________________________ Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance. The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

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Should I Put Everything In A 5% Money Market?

It seems simple enough- "money markets" and other instruments are "paying 5% right now". Who doesn't want to make 5% on their money doing nothing? So should you shift your entire portfolio to something with purported reliable returns and alleged "lack of risk"? Wait...WHY are savings accounts paying 5%? It's All Money Host and Sonoma Wealth Marketing Director Dano Weir sits down with Sonoma Wealth Co-Founder Chris Sipes CFP®, AIF® to discuss the circumstances which have led to savings rates "partying like it's 2009" and potential upsides and downsides to making a move there. Video also available for every episode of It’s All Money on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@sonomawealth See the Slides and References here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/file/9/Its%20All%20Money%20Episode%202-Money%20Markets.pdf _______________ Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax. The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

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Tarrific

The kids say T-I-L, “today I learned”, that the word terrific meant “frightening”. It’s current and past meanings seemed to sum up the duality of the current tariff situation, so credit to Daren Blonski for coining the phrase TAR-RI-FIC for today’s episode of On The Markets. This week, Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir look at: Trump made new tariff threats against the EU and Apple (can you tariff a company??) Friday, and yet the market sort of shrugged it off? Why Gold might be looking at a breakout to all-time highs again after looking like a downturn just one week ago. What in the heck are “inverse ETFs”? 3:24 30 Year Bond high again 6:46 Oil Signaling Recession? 9:33 S&P Cold Chillin 16:00 Mags trending down 17:30 Gold back up? 20:40 A look at Apple 24:30 The Market Xmas Tree 25:00 What are inverse ETFs? Take Sonoma Wealth's Free Wealth Analysis right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/ Videos available on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLaOjL6z16wjV2_CTStzc36Y5JtiwhVoGJ ________________________ Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax. The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

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How To Lose A Guy In 10 Months

Our show On The Markets is a market show but...hard to ignore the biggest headline this week, so we thought we’d have a little fun. Please enjoy our new episode- How To Lose A Guy In 10 Months. “If you aren’t laughin you aren’t livin” sounds like something Matthew McConaughey might say, and with that in mind we tried for some humor on the “breakup” this week of Elon Musk and President Trump. The part we're more interested in- the market doesn't seem to care. Why the market is leaving Trump “on sent”, basically ignoring his headlines, finally. Crucial items and services on the market have hit a 25 year low. What does that mean? Which states in the union suddenly have a ton of housing inventory? Take a deep breath, we might be able to say “all-time highs” again soon. 3:00 The Trump and Elon “breakup” 6:50 Unemployment rate 7:47 Investor Sentiment 9:56 National Debt by President 18:25 Money supply indicating market could be going up 20:26 The dollar index 23:50 Key staples in your life are at a 25 year low on the S&P 27:44 Shift in housing inventory 32:27 S&P this week – all time highs again? 36:24 S&P heat map 38:20 Gold 39:26 Bond market 43:10 Oil Take Sonoma Wealth's Free Wealth Analysis right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/ Videos available on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLaOjL6z16wjV2_CTStzc36Y5JtiwhVoGJ ________________________ Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax. The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

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Spicy TACOs?

We got a tariff backdown and a new slang term this week. Join Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP® and Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir and learn what the new definition of a “TACO” is as they go On The Markets... There's a graph with a huge spike in it, spoiler it’s a social security chartNew gulf to talk about in the housing market – is consumer stress forcing a flood of home inventory?Are Bonds the new European stocks?Today’s Bullish close of the S&P had everything to do with the low during COVID? 2:14 The new definition of TACO 11:06 Market sentiment – bullish vibes increase 17:49 Bonds are the new Europe? 22:08 Consumer consumption indicating inflation lessening? 25:44 Trend-following 30:31 The new gulf in housing 34:30 The housing supply 37:30 S&P bullish close due to COVID? 47:55 10 year bond 50:00 QQQ and MAGs Take Sonoma Wealth's Free Wealth Analysis right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/ Videos available on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLaOjL6z16wjV2_CTStzc36Y5JtiwhVoGJ ________________________ Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax. The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

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Be Careful Wishing For Rate Cuts

Cut the rates, money will be cheaper, millions can refinance, market tends to love rate cuts, ...what could go wrong? This week On The Markets, Sonoma Wealth Managing Principal Daren Blonski , Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir explain: Why the scenario where rates need to be cut means we are likely looking at a major economic downturn Why single family home sales are looking like 2008 In the last 20 years should you have been in all gold or all stocks? Joke’s on all of us, it’s a push? aWhat is a massive drop in “Doctor Copper” telling us about a possible recession? 8:01 US vs Global Equity Returns 11:45 US Equities vs The Rest Of The World since 2009 14:00 Investor sentiment 15:25 Odds of a rate cut 19:33 Job numbers 23:09 2 year treasury vs. Fed Funds Rate 27:30 Americans own more stocks than ever 31:25 Time between S&P 500 All Time Highs 33:12 S&P 500 – where are we going over time? CAPE ratios 35:38 Russell 2000 is still a dog 37:00 Gold vs. US Stock Market 40:10 New single family homes at near 2008 levels 43:20 Why do we look at “Doctor Copper”? 44:24 Jobs numbers 54:48 Market heat map 55:10 10 year treasury 56:23 Oil performance 59:00 NVidia and Microsoft performance 1:02:00 Agg Bond index Take Sonoma Wealth's Free Wealth Analysis right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/ Videos available on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLaOjL6z16wjV2_CTStzc36Y5JtiwhVoGJ Audio also available on Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/on-the-markets/id1802984526 Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/2YqyNLN7mcBApS5RL2piAj _______________________________________ Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax, d/b/a Fermata Insurance. The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser todetermine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

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From Carpenter To Cattle Rancher: Johnny Fagundes Of Full Circle Ranches

It's a New Year, and you might be dreaming of making that big leap. That career you've always wondered and worried about. How would it affect your income? Would you make it? How could you afford it before you make it? How much would it cost? This guy did it. In 2020, union carpenter Johnny Fagundes saw meat shortages on TV as a result of the pandemic, and after years of raising cattle on the side, jumped in with both feet to follow his dream. It's All Money host Dano Weir sits down with Johnny at his farm, Full Circles Ranches in west Petaluma, CA to discuss his story of entrepreneurship and his holistic ranching philosophy. Learn more about Sonoma Wealth Advisors here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/ Learn more about Full Circle Ranches here: https://fullcircleranches.com/ Learn more about Panizzera Meat Company here: https://www.panizzerameatco.com/ Video also available for every episode of It’s All Money on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@sonomawealth _______________ Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax. The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

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What Is A K-Shaped Economy?

"We never had a recession" these past 3 years but...we're looking at a bounceback anyway and it might be in the shape of a "K". What that means for you and your portfolio now, On The Markets. Join Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP® and Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir this week to find out: Why your experience of the economy might now might be if you got your mortgage before or after 2021 Why a “triple witching” may have caused a dip in the S&P to end the week Data which shows why it might be time to consider boring products and companies called ‘Defensives’ in your portfolio 4:12 2021 is the line in the sand for mortgages 8:35 Manufacturing jobs by state 10:29 Investor sentiment 13:59 Fed not changing rates 18:34 Equities soaring since 1970 21:17 Which countries are spending and which are saving? 23:35 Fund Managers are underweighting the US Dollar 26:40 US Dollar Index not as weak as you think 28:22 Cost of health insurance has declined 18%?? 32:40 What are Defensives? 34:05 What are “Real Yields”? 38:48 S&P this week 41:57 What is a “triple witching”? 43:37 Chances of a rate cut 44:28 S&P heat map 45:04 Oil market 53:17 Bond market Take Sonoma Wealth's Free Wealth Analysis right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/ Videos available on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLaOjL6z16wjV2_CTStzc36Y5JtiwhVoGJ ____________________________________ Disclosure: Fermata Advisors LLC is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This content was produced by Fermata Advisors, LLC, d/b/a Sonoma Wealth Advisors, d/b/a Fermata 401k, d/b/a Fermata Tax. The opinions expressed by Fermata Advisors, LLC on this show are their own. Information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up to date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. Discussions and answers to questions do not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice but are limited to the dissemination of general information. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Viewers and listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

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Telling the stories of the Northern California Bay Area, one episode at a time.

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