Excess Returns

Excess Returns
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

  1. -4 ДН.

    What Really Drove Buffett’s Success | Kai Wu on Berkshire's Intangible Edge

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined by Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital to explore one of the most important and overlooked aspects of Warren Buffett’s investing evolution: his shift from tangible to intangible value. Based on Kai’s research paper “Buffett’s Intangible Moats,” we examine how Buffett's portfolio has evolved alongside the economy — and why the intangible drivers of brand equity, intellectual property, human capital, and network effects are central to understanding his success. Kai also shares how quantitative methods can be used to replicate Buffett’s approach and what this means for investors today. Topics Covered: The three eras of Buffett’s portfolio evolution: industrial, consumer, and information age Why Buffett’s shift away from deep value investing began earlier than most realize How Charlie Munger helped change Buffett’s approach — and why that mattered Buffett’s preference for intangible assets like brand, IP, and network effects How to quantify intangible value and its four key components Surprising stats: Buffett rarely buys below book value and holds high price-to-book stocks Kai’s framework for building an intangible value score across stocks Factor attribution: quality and intangible value explain most of Buffett’s alpha The impact of portfolio size, sector biases, and evolution of circle of competence How to replicate Buffett’s approach using a systematic, factor-based strategy Why intangible value may be the "quality of tomorrow" and a forward-looking moat Timestamps: 00:00 – Buffett’s evolution from value to intangible investor 01:55 – Why Kai researched Buffett’s investing style now 04:00 – The three eras of Buffett: Geico, Coca-Cola, Apple 08:15 – How Buffett’s thinking changed under Munger’s influence 10:00 – The rise of intangible moats and Buffett’s definition of economic goodwill 13:10 – Four components of intangible value 15:10 – Mapping Buffett’s holdings to intangible assets over time 17:30 – Does Buffett get enough credit for evolving? 20:30 – Only 8% of his holdings were bought below book value 24:00 – Average price-to-book of Buffett's portfolio is 8 26:00 – Defining Kai’s intangible value factor 27:50 – Buffett becomes a value investor again — just using a different metric 30:00 – Circle of competence vs. expanding opportunity set 33:00 – Today’s portfolio is 75% intangible by Kai’s framework 34:45 – Decomposing Buffett’s returns into factors 38:00 – Quality and intangible value explain 90% of Buffett’s alpha 43:15 – Sector exposure vs. true value tilt 49:00 – Intangible value as a leading indicator of quality 52:00 – Building a Buffett-style quant portfolio using two key factors 54:00 – Why Buffett’s future returns may be more muted

    1 ч. 3 мин.

  2. -6 ДН.

    The Seven Rules of Wall Street | Sam Stovall

    📈 In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined by Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA and author of The Seven Rules of Wall Street. We explore Sam’s timeless, data-driven investing rules and connect them to today’s market environment—including sector trends, interest rates, Fed policy, investor behavior, and why market history is one of the most underrated tools for navigating uncertainty. This conversation blends historical perspective with practical insights, making it essential viewing for long-term investors and students of market behavior alike. 🔍 Topics Covered: The power of rules-based investing and emotional discipline Why momentum often beats mean reversion in sectors The predictive value of January market performance How AI hype is shaping today’s market narrative Whether “Sell in May” still works—and what to do instead The case for value investing and high-quality dividend stocks A simple two-sector portfolio that beat tech (with less risk) Whether the 60/40 portfolio is still viable The failure of equal weight and small caps to outperform recently How to manage fear and stay invested during volatile markets What history teaches about Fed rate cuts and market returns A momentum strategy for finding “bull markets somewhere” Sam’s top lesson for the average investor ⏱️ Timestamps: 00:00 – Market performance after strong Januaries 02:00 – Let your winners ride, cut losers short 04:45 – Current sector winners and market concentration 06:30 – As goes January, so goes the year 09:00 – Why Year 3 of bull markets tends to be weak 11:00 – How AI fits into today’s bull case 12:30 – Sell in May—but rotate instead of retreat 14:30 – Why value investing has struggled 16:00 – Tech as the new consumer staple? 17:45 – A free lunch: Tech + staples portfolio 20:30 – The 60/40 portfolio and inflation hedging 22:20 – Don’t get mad, get even (equal weight vs. cap weight) 24:00 – Managing emotions and using history as Valium 26:20 – Don’t fight the Fed: Rate cuts and market returns 28:30 – CFRA’s Fed outlook for the second half 29:40 – There’s always a bull market somewhere 31:20 – Sam’s #1 lesson for the average investor

    33 мин.

  3. 3 АВГ.

    The 100 Year Pivot | Navigating a Changing Market with Grant Williams

    In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Grant Williams for a wide-ranging conversation on what he calls the “Hundred Year Pivot.” Grant shares his view that we are living through a once-in-a-century inflection point — a deep, structural shift that is reshaping markets, institutions, societal values, and even individual behavior. This isn’t about predicting the next trade; it’s about understanding the tectonic changes happening beneath the surface and how investors can adapt, survive, and eventually thrive. 🔍 Topics covered in this episode: What the “Hundred Year Pivot” really means Why trust is the foundation of everything — and why it’s cracking The loss of long-standing institutions and belief systems How the freezing of Russian assets triggered a global monetary rethink Why central banks are buying gold like never before Why “buy the dip” might be a dangerous relic of a past era The return of capital preservation as a core investing principle How community, religion, and localism are resurfacing The psychology of luck, risk, and staying rich What gives Grant hope, despite the darkness of this turning ⏱️ Timestamps: 00:00 – The hundred-year pivot and deep structural change 04:00 – Financial nihilism and the breakdown of institutional trust 11:00 – The freezing of Russian assets and its global implications 14:00 – Central banks, gold, and the unraveling of the dollar system 23:00 – From 40 years of tailwinds to a harder investing environment 27:00 – Why “buy the dip” is getting more dangerous 33:00 – Capital preservation vs. capital accumulation 40:00 – Societal change, community assets, and the new investment mindset 54:00 – Grant’s reason for optimism

    1 ч.

  4. 31 ИЮЛ.

    The Bubble No One Can Sell | Dan Rasmussen on the Private Equity Trap

    In this episode of Excess Returns, Justin and special guest host Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital are joined by Verdad’s Dan Rasmussen for a deep dive into the hidden risks lurking in private equity—and why they may be more dangerous than investors realize. Rasmussen, a long-time critic of the asset class, explains why the allure of illiquidity, stale pricing, and past outperformance has led to dangerous capital misallocations. Along the way, we explore the origins of the Yale model, the current liquidity crunch, volatility laundering, and whether small-cap value could be the better bet today. We also dig into bubbles, biotech, and whether AI will concentrate or diffuse economic power. 🔑 Topics covered: Why private equity may not be what investors think it is The original logic of the Yale model—and how it’s broken today Leverage, small company risk, and the illusion of low volatility How private equity portfolios are “money traps” in disguise Small-cap value as public market private equity Why biotech could be the next overlooked opportunity How innovation bubbles spark long-term progress AI’s capital intensity and implications for Big Tech dominance Behavioral risks in institutional vs. retail investing 📍 Timestamps:00:00 – Why private equity could be a money trap03:00 – The over-allocation to small, low-margin, highly levered companies07:25 – Why private equity’s popularity may signal poor future returns14:30 – The Yale Model’s origin story and how it morphed19:25 – Collapse in private equity distributions23:34 – Volatility laundering and misleading risk metrics27:00 – What happens when private equity goes public31:00 – Do lockups help investor behavior—or prevent learning?35:10 – Could small-cap value be a better alternative to private equity?42:00 – Why biotech is the most beaten-up corner of small caps47:00 – Bubbles, innovation, and the role of speculative excess51:00 – AI, capital intensity, and a return to economic gravity54:00 – Will AI empower monopolies or smaller players?

    56 мин.

  5. 29 ИЮЛ.

    Darius Dale on the Fourth Turning, Fiscal Dominance, and the Case for a Melt-Up

    Macro strategist Darius Dale returns to Excess Returns with a deep dive into the seismic shifts shaping markets today. From the implications of the Fourth Turning to the systemic risks of fiscal dominance, Dale shares how he’s helping investors stay on the right side of market risk using quantitative tools and macro insights from 42 Macro. This episode covers everything from inflation, tariffs, and AI to a systematic framework for navigating regime change in real time. Whether you're a retail investor or an institutional pro, this conversation is packed with insights that matter. 🔍 In This Episode: The Fourth Turning’s impact on markets and society Why inflation, income inequality, and geopolitical turmoil are converging How Darius's market regime model (Dr. Mo) systematically adapts to risk What the “KISS” model portfolio is—and how it outperforms 60/40 Why recession models failed and how Darius sees the economy now The overlooked growth shock from policy—not just tariffs How AI may shift the economic power structure even more dramatically Why he believes the long-term outlook is structurally bullish (despite the chaos) ⏱️ Timestamps: 00:00 – Opening macro warning and Fourth Turning setup 02:44 – Darius on working with Neil Howe and implications of generational shifts 04:13 – How the Fourth Turning creates fiscal dominance and financial repression 08:21 – Explaining the market regime system and Dr. Mo 14:33 – What institutions get wrong and how volatility front-runs momentum 17:13 – The origin of 42 Macro and mission to democratize institutional-grade tools 18:35 – Case study: When the model turned bullish in April 21:23 – Why tariffs don’t derail the model 23:41 – Why recession signals failed & how Dale reads the cycle differently 30:13 – Why Dale is still pounding the table on U.S. resilience 35:11 – Paradigm A → B → C: the evolution of economic policy under pressure 43:49 – Will AI fuel an i-shaped economy? Or something better? 50:28 – Inside the “KISS” model portfolio and its 25% average annual return 🔗 Learn more at 42macro.com 📊 Follow Darius Dale on X: @42macroDDale

    58 мин.

  6. 27 ИЮЛ.

    The Risks of the Rise of Passive Investing | Mike Green

    In this episode of Excess Returns, Mike Green returns to dissect the structural transformation underway in public markets due to the rise of passive investing. He explains why “there’s no such thing as a passive investor,” how inelastic flows distort prices, and what it means for valuation, volatility, and the long-term sustainability of equity markets. From the math behind market multipliers to the policy distortions driving mega-cap dominance, Mike walks through the macro, micro, and behavioral implications of passive flows — and what investors and policymakers need to do about it. 🔍 Topics Covered: Why passive investing isn’t truly passive The origins and impact of the inelastic market hypothesis How passive flows distort price discovery The shift from mean reversion to mean expansion in markets Multipliers and the mechanics of how flows drive prices Why market efficiency is breaking down at scale The hidden risks of passive-dominant market structure Target date funds and their unintended consequences The fragility of valuations under passive dominance The problem with IPO scarcity and capital misallocation Options strategies for convex tails and market drift Why the Fed and regulators may act — and what could trigger it Bitcoin and private markets as new flow-driven regimes How policy and tax advantages have reshaped capitalism ⏱️ Timestamps: 00:00 – "There’s no such thing as a passive investor" 01:05 – The origins of Mike’s work on passive flows 03:00 – Bill Sharpe vs. Lasse Pedersen on passive flaws 06:00 – Index rebalancing and the illusion of passivity 07:00 – The rise of flow-based (demand-side) asset pricing 10:00 – Why EMH broke down under scale 12:00 – The human layer markets forgot 14:30 – The math behind price multipliers (5x to 25x) 17:00 – Market efficiency vs. market distortion 20:00 – Meta, index drift, and fake efficiency 23:00 – What individual investors should do 25:00 – The Mag 7 and extreme multiplier effects 27:00 – Options and convex tail risk management 29:00 – Mike’s 2016 survey on marginal buying behavior 31:00 – The shift from mean reversion to mean expansion 33:30 – When the music stops: wealth-to-income dynamics 35:00 – Theoretical crash under net withdrawals 36:00 – Why the boomer selloff thesis is flawed 39:00 – The overlooked risk: wealthy investors exiting actives 41:00 – Public vs. private equity concentration 43:00 – Why policy response is likely (and how it may look) 46:00 – Political power vs. market dominance 49:00 – Bitcoin, passive ETFs, and flow-driven pricing 52:00 – Private equity in 401(k)s — implications and risks 57:00 – The unintended outcomes of inflated valuations 59:00 – The hollowing out of the public equity bid 1:01:00 – How Vanguard’s 2015 rebalancing moved the market 1:04:00 – Valuation opacity and future withdrawals 1:07:00 – What Mike is working on now and next steps

    1 ч. 23 мин.

  7. 25 ИЮЛ.

    The Case for a Broadening Bull Market | Jim Paulsen

    Subscribe on Apple Podcsasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jim-paulsen-show/id1828054999 Subscribe on Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/3QaBDVGuBZ3cZfFZ4mqPFc Subscribe on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/excessreturns In the premiere episode of our new monthly series, The Jim Paulsen Show we dig into Jim's latest research and the charts that define today's economic and market landscape. Jim lays out a compelling case for why the private sector is more resilient than many believe, why a recession may not be on the horizon, and why so many parts of the market still look cheap despite record index levels. We explore the implications of tariffs, the underappreciated productivity boom, the potential for a market broadening, and the risks posed by policy uncertainty. Whether you're a macro thinker, a data-driven investor, or just trying to make sense of this confusing market, Jim brings clarity, charts, and contrarian insight.

    58 мин.

  8. 23 ИЮЛ.

    You’re Misreading the Rally | Liz Ann Sonders on What is Really Driving Market Returns

    📉 What the Market Is Getting Wrong | Liz Ann Sonders on Debt, Tariffs, and the Fed In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, for an in-depth conversation about what's really driving markets right now. Drawing on her latest research and commentary, we dig into retail trading dynamics, the implications of rising tariffs, the debt burden, inflation pressures, market concentration, and why the Fed might be holding the line. Liz Ann delivers clear, actionable insights—cutting through the noise and helping investors understand what matters most in today’s unstable environment. 📌 Topics Covered: Why high debt levels suppress long-term economic growth and productivity The retail trader “fingerprint” on recent market moves How sentiment extremes created a powerful reversal in April The rising risks around tariffs—and why markets may be complacent What companies are doing about margin pressure vs. passing on inflation The Fed’s “timeout” posture and why the market may be misreading it Liz Ann’s view on Powell’s potential ouster and Fed independence The disconnect between contribution to index returns vs. performance (Mag 7) Broadening market leadership and the role of quality stocks Why utilities and industrials are surprising AI beneficiaries How inflation is shifting from disinflationary to secularly higher The overlooked economic effects of immigration policy What the labor market is hiding beneath the headline numbers Why year-end price targets are a “dumb exercise” for individual investors ⏱️ Timestamps: 00:00 – Opening clip: debt, growth, inflation & the Fed 01:00 – Welcome and introduction 02:00 – Retail trader impact on market rally since April 05:25 – Sentiment washout and pain trade dynamics 08:00 – Policy instability and tariff complacency 12:00 – What investors can do in the face of uncertainty 14:50 – Budget deficits, debt burden, and growth implications 18:00 – Inflationary risks embedded in the new spending bill 20:30 – Dissecting inflation: tariffs, goods vs. services, and inequality 23:45 – Inflation vs. margins: where the impact shows first 26:00 – Instability vs. uncertainty: the new investor reality 30:30 – Labor market risks and misleading employment metrics 35:00 – Immigration's hidden macroeconomic effects 38:00 – Fed independence, Powell’s job security, and mispriced rate expectations 42:00 – Why the Fed may not cut—and why that’s bullish 44:20 – Mag 7 myth: contribution vs. true performance 48:00 – Broadening the rally: high-quality vs. low-quality stocks 50:30 – AI's second-order effects and sector-level surprises 55:00 – Liz Ann’s contrarian take: why year-end targets are pointless

    57 мин.
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

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  • Автор
    Excess Returns
  • Годы выхода
    2019 - 2025
  • Выпуски
    362
  • Ограничения
    Без ненормативной лексики
  • Авторские права
    © 905628
  • Сайт подкаста
    Excess Returns

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