25 episodes

This is the unscripted discussions of John C. Dvorak and Andrew Horowitz. Open mic style conversations about the economy, finance and the wacky world of business. Tips and rants are all part of each episode.

DHUnplugged Podcast Horowitz and Dvorak

    • Business
    • 4.5 • 396 Ratings

This is the unscripted discussions of John C. Dvorak and Andrew Horowitz. Open mic style conversations about the economy, finance and the wacky world of business. Tips and rants are all part of each episode.

    DHUnplugged #694: Lots of China

    DHUnplugged #694: Lots of China

    Volatility is back and Bitcoin mania is here again.

    Need a new CTP Stock!

    China stocks on a run...

    PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!





    Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
    DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.




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    Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
    Warm Up
    - Volatility is back
    - Bitcoin mania
    - Need a new CTP Stock!
    - LSD - making an interesting comeback

    Market Update
    - NVDA had 2 down days!
    - Markets still want to go higher - not matter what the data
    - Yields move up with CPI
    - Big rebound for NVDA - not letting it go down too much...

    CPI Release
    - Total CPI increased by 0.4% month-over-month, meeting expectations, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) also rose by 0.4% month-over-month (0.3%).
    - On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 3.2%, compared to 3.1% in January, and core CPI increased by 3.8%, versus 3.9% in January.
    - Excluding shelter, CPI rose by a more modest 1.8% year-over-year.
    - Despite the headline disappointment for core CPI, the market seems optimistic about the future, anticipating a reduction in the isolated impact of the shelter index in the coming months due to an expected moderation in rent prices. (in other words, thinking the Fed's PCE will not be so hot next time and the Fed will still cut sometime this year)




    CPI Report key takeaways:
    - The food index showed no change month-over-month and increased by 2.2% year-over-year.
    - The energy index rose by 2.3% month-over-month and declined by 1.9% year-over-year.
    - Used cars and trucks saw a 0.5% increase month-over-month and a 1.8% decrease year-over-year.
    - The apparel index was up 0.6% month-over-month and unchanged year-over-year.
    - The all items index, excluding food, shelter, and energy, increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.2% year-over-year.
    Inflation - YoY




    Inflation - ACTUAL
    Layoffs - Does not fit the narrative
    - Layoff announcements in February hit their highest level for the month since the global financial crisis, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
    - The total of 84,638 planned cuts showed an increase of 3% from January and 9% from the same month a year ago, with technology and finance companies at the forefront.
    - From a historical perspective, this was the worst February since 2009, which saw 186,350 announcements as the worst of the financial crisis was seemingly coming to an end.
    - Here is where it gets interesting: The layoff numbers, however, are not feeding through to weekly jobless claims, suggesting that unemployment is short-lived and workers are able to find new positions.

    Powell
    - On one hand he stated that the Fed is watching and not ready yet to cut rates - data dependent
    - A couple days later he indicated that interest rate cuts may not be too far off if inflation signals cooperate.
    - In remarks to the Senate Banking Committee, the central bank leader didn't provide a precise timetable of when he sees easing happening, but noted that the day could be coming soon.

    Mnuchin to the Rescue?
    -NYCB had bad month - and got worse
    - Lost 7% of deposits
    - Bond rating cut
    - Investment firm lead by Steve Mnuchin swooped in with a cool $1 billion rescue package
    - Remember NYCD bought Signature Bank - obviously so much crap in that portfolio it helped poison NYCB

    Oracle Earnings
    - New ATH
    - Reports Q3 (Feb) earnings of $1.41 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.38; revenues rose 7.1% year/year to $13.28 bln vs the $13.29 bln FactSet Consensus.

    - Q3 Total Remaining Performance Obligations up 29% to $80 billion.
    - Q3 Cloud Revenue (IaaS plus SaaS) $5.1 billion, up 25% in USD, up 24% in constant currency.
    - Q3 Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) Revenue $1.8 billion, up 49% in both USD and constant currency.

    • 1 hr 4 min
    DHUnplugged #693: Best of DHU (2)

    DHUnplugged #693: Best of DHU (2)

    All sorts of good stuff in this episode.

    Some good laughs and fun throughout the year.

    Thanks to Ryan Rediske for all the help in putting this together!





     
    DHUnplugged is streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar for access.





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    • 1 hr 1 min
    DHUnplugged #692: Froth-A-Bubble

    DHUnplugged #692: Froth-A-Bubble

    TECH on fire - Bulls overjoyed!
    Hedge Funds - Making some moves - Surprising
    Year of Pharma?
    To The Moon - Crypto Style
    Valuations getting frothy?

    PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!





    Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
    DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.




    Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?




    Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
    Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
    Warm Up
    - Pays to Follow Pelosi!
    - Landing on the Moon - then falling over
    - Japan - something not kosher
    - New See-through laptop screens

    Market Update
    - TECH on fire - Bulls overjoyed!
    - Hedge Funds - Making some moves - Surprising
    - Year of Pharma?
    - To The Moon - Crypto Style
    - Valuations getting frothy

     

    Froth-a-Bubble- Icous?
    - There is some concern at Apollo regarding a bubble in S&P 500
    - The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 today are more overvalued than the top 10 companies were during the tech bubble in the mid-1990s, see chart below.
    - Different makeup back in 1999 - but still of interest asa the S&P500 reaches levels (P/E) at the high end of the ranges.
    - SEE LINK
    Smart Money?
    - Hedge funds piled into tech stocks in the weeks before Nvidia Corp. earnings. Now, they’re cashing out and selling at the fastest pace in seven months.
    - Professional managers offloaded their positions for four straight sessions last week, including Thursday, the day after Nvidia posted results, according to data from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime-brokerage unit. The intensity of the selling ranks in the 98th
    - he data suggests traders are booking profits on their tech wagers after a six-week buying streak and putting that extra cash into less volatile stocks, such as consumer staples.
    - SEE LINK
    Nancy!
    - NEWS MONDAY: PANW - Palo Alto Networks shares higher by 9% after Rep. Nancy Pelosi reported Friday afternoon the purchase of 70 call options (purchases made 2/12 and 2/21)
    - Stock moved down 27% after earnings last week
    - In fairness, the purchases on 2/12 are very underwater
    - AH picked this for the game right after post-earnings slump

    Earnings - Zoom
    - Zoom shares rose as much as 13% in extended trading on Monday after the video chat software vendor announced fiscal fourth-quarter results that topped analysts' expectations.
    - Here's how the company did, compared with consensus among analysts polled by LSEG:
    - -- - Earnings per share: $1.22, adjusted vs. $1.15 expected
    - - - -Revenue: $1.15 billion vs. $1.13 billion expected

    Disney
    -Walt Disneyshareholder Blackwells Capital is calling for it to come up with an artificial intelligence (AI) strategy, saying that this could lift the U.S. media and entertainment conglomerate's stock price by as much as 129%.
    Blackwells is one of two activist investors pushing for board seats
    What Goes Up...
    - Intuitive Machines Inc. shares sink Monday, after the spacecraft company said its lander, which successfully touched down on the moon last week, likely landed on its side.
    - The landing was touted as the first by a private-sector company to reach the moon intact, as well as the first US spacecraft to reach the moon’s surface since 1972.
    - In a Monday update, the company wrote that “flight controllers intend to collect data until the lander’s solar panels are no longer exposed to light,” and that “based on Earth and Moon positioning, we believe flight controllers will continue to communicate with Odysseus until Tuesday morning.”
    - Stock down 33% on this news
    Japan
    - Markets at new highs
    - Yen weak weak weak
    - Government keeps ultra-loose monetary policy
    - Recession official
    - Something is not right over there

    More Japan
    - Federal prosecutors in New York on Wednesday said they had charged a Japanese Yakuza leader with conspiring to traffic nuclear materials from Burma to other countries.
    - Prosecutors said the accused gangster Takeshi Ebisawa "and his confederates showed sa...

    • 1 hr 4 min
    DHUnplugged #691: Lying Flat

    DHUnplugged #691: Lying Flat

    Japan makes surprise crypto move.

    AI dating coaches are coming
    - Markets plunge - then rebound nicely
    - AI Buying AI stuff
    - Cure for Frostbite?

    PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!





    Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
    DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.




    Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?




    Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
    Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
    Warm Up
    - AI dating coaches are coming
    - Markets plunge - then rebound nicely
    - AI Buying AI stuff
    - Cure for Frostbite?
    - AMAZING AMAZON

    Market Update
    - Japan - really pumping the risk assets
    - China government making $$ moves
    - China: Latest Problem: Lying Flat
    - Whoops - What is an extra ZERO anyway?
     Follow Up----
    - USA CPI came out HOT!
    - January PPI increased by 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%), with the previous figure revised to -0.1% from -0.2%. Meanwhile, January Core PPI rose by 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%), and the prior number was revised to -0.1% from 0.0%.
    - The significant message from the report aligns with the conclusion drawn from the unexpectedly high January CPI report: whether the market opts to overlook this data due to seasonal adjustments, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to dismiss it.
    - The Fed is likely to perceive it as a reason to maintain a patient approach in terms of potential rate cuts.
    Market Hysteria
    - The Russell 2000, sank 4% on Tuesday, but ultimately settled 1.1% higher on the week. The market-cap weighted S&P 500 declined 0.4% this week, but the equal-weighted S&P 500 jumped 0.7%.
    - The Russell was DOWN 4% on Tuesday after the hotter than expected CPI report.
    - In addition to the hot CPI reading, market participants also digested a below-consensus Retail Sales report for January, an unexpected drop in jobless claims to 212,000, and a hotter-than-expected PPI report for January.
    -The 2-yr note yield settled 15 basis points higher this week to 4.65% in response to this week's data and the 10-yr note yield rose 11 basis points this week to 4.30%. (Briefing.com)

    Japan Crypto News
    - Japan inched closer to allowing venture capital firms and other investment funds to hold digital assets directly, after Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s administration agreed to submit a revised bill to implement the change.
    - His cabinet approved the text of a bill on Feb. 16 that seeks to partially amend the country’s industrial competitiveness enhancement act, according to a statement published on the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry’s website. The bill states that “measures will be taken to add cryptoassets to the list of assets that can be acquired and held by investment limited partnerships,” referring to a vehicle used by venture capital firms to secure capital for investments.

    China
    - China’s southern province of Hainan moved to cut down-payment ratio for first-time homebuyers, the latest region in the country to ease mortgage policies to boost slumping home sales.
    - Minimum down payment for first homes was cut to 20% from 25%, according to a Monday report by Hainan Daily. The ratio for second homes remains unchanged at 30%, the outlet reported, citing a government notice without saying when the measure would go into effect.

    More China
    - China's market opened after the long Lunar New Year break with a thud.
    - China looks to be still buying directly into markets to prop up
    - Reports about pre-pandemic level spending on goods and travel, especially during the Lunar New Year did not lift the mood much

    China's Newest Concern: Lie Flat
    - "lie flat", a Chinese term used to describe people who work just enough to afford to spend their time on what they enjoy.
    ---- Not like Japan Inc of the 1980's
    - Although there is no data on how many young Chinese are opting out of corporate jobs that they traditionally would have taken, the youth jobless rate rose to a record high of 21.

    • 58 min
    DHUnplugged #690: To The Moon

    DHUnplugged #690: To The Moon

    SUPERBOWL Mania.
    Bitcoin Fever is back
    HUGE week for economic reports
    Altman looking for $
    Winner for SAVE CTP announced

    PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!





    Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
    DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.




    Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?




    Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
    Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
    Warm Up
    -  SUPERBOWL Mania
    - Bitcoin Fever is back
    - HUGE week for economic reports
    - Altman looking for $
    - Winner for SAVE CTP

    Market Update
    - 3-Day Rule (Buy after plunge) - Made up Nonsense
    - Get out your 5,000 Hats!
    - Disney Earnings - Good Stuff
    - ARM Blowout
    - CPI Report Meltdown
     S&P 500 Breaks 5,000!
    - All time high
    - The S&P 500 continues to hit fresh milestones with a first-ever break above the 5,000 level, its valuation is reaching new heights as well.
    - PE - forward price-to-earnings ratio -- a commonly used metric to value stocks -- this week rose to 20.4 times, a level last reached in February 2022, according to LSEG Datastream.
    - That puts it far above the index’s historic average of 15.7.
    - Expectations are for 9.7% earnings growth for 2024
    - "The good news is that valuations, while stretched ... are nowhere near the 28x peak at the Y2K Bubble Top," Emanuel said. ????
    Follow Up----
    - CPI came out HOT!
    - YoY 3.1% for CPU and 3.9% for Core
    - The food index was up 0.4% month-over-month and up 2.6% year-over-year.
    - The energy index was down 0.9% month-over-month and down 4.6% year-over-year.
    - The used cars and trucks index decreased 3.4% month-over-month and was down 3.5% year-over-year.
    - The shelter index was up 0.6% month-over-month and up 6.0% year-over-year.
    - The all items index less shelter was up 1.5% year-over-year.
    ----- Markets hit after reports - gained a bit back toward end of the session - but overbought and hot CPI don't mix
    --- Small Caps down 4%, NAZ down 2% S&P down 1.4%

    What Does it Mean?
    - Fed funds futures push any cut until June
    - 4 cuts are expectations for 2024 (down 7 at the start of the year)

    Economics this week
    Economics
    NVDA
    - Up, Up, UP
    - Goldman Target = $800
    - NVIDIA surpassed Amazon (AMZN) in market value for a brief period on Monday

    More NVDA
    - Company is building a new business unit focused on designing bespoke chips for cloud computing firms and others, including advanced artificial intelligence (AI) processors, nine sources familiar with its plans told Reuters.
    - The dominant global designer and supplier of AI chips aims to capture a portion of an exploding market for custom AI chips and shield itself from the growing number of companies pursuing alternatives to its products.

    Altman (ChatGPT)
    - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is seeking trillions of dollars in investments to overhaul the global semiconductor industry
    - Altman has long talked of the supply and demand problem with AI chips
    - He's considering a project that would increase global chip-building capacity,
    - Altman could need to raise between $5 trillion and $7 trillion for the endeavor
    - Reportedly in talks with different investors, including the government of the United Arab Emirates.

    Waymo Cars Attacked
    - On Saturday night, a crowd surrounded a white sport utility vehicle that was moving along a street in the city's Chinatown district (San Fran)
    - A person jumped onto the hood of the Waymo vehicle and broke its windshield. Another person also jumped on the hood 30 seconds later as some in the crowd clapped in approval
    - Fireworks thrown in car and set on fire.
    - On previous occasions in San Francisco and Phoenix, Arizona, groups have disrupted the operations of self-driving vehicles, blocking their path, trying to enter the vehicles and jumping on their hoods

    Amazon
    - Bezos unloading shares
    - $2 billion last week
    - Plans to sell 50 million shares over the  next year or so

    Israel
    - Downgraded by Moody's

    • 1 hr
    DHUnplugged #689: AI Market Euphoria

    DHUnplugged #689: AI Market Euphoria

    Big Week - AND HOW!

    Big Caps BIG - Small Caps Small

    AAPL declined 3.4% on the week while AMZN jumped 8.0% and META gained 20.5%.

    Shakeup at Morgan Stanley

    Banking Sector Fears (NYCB)

    The latest Closest to The Pin.

    PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!





    Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
    DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.




    Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?




    Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
    Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
    Warm Up
    -  Big Week - AND HOW!
    - Big Caps BIG - Small Caps Small (Regional Bank woes)
    --- AAPL declined 3.4% on the week while AMZN jumped 8.0% and META gained 20.5%.
    - Shakeup at Morgan Stanley
    - Banking Sector Fears (NYCB)
    - AI induced euphoria - is that a thing? Market intoxicated on it.


    Market Update
    - Powell was Hawkish - Markets Didn't Care (past Wednesday)
    - HUGE Employment Surprise - Market Didn't Care (after 10 minutes)
    - META/Facebook Earning - Yes Markets cared - all day Friday
    - Undercurrent of something happening (Region  Bank breakdown - NYCB)
    - China comes out strong with market supportive measures  - market rallies 5%


    Employment Report
    - Much hotter than anticipated
    - Treasury Yields and the USD spiked
    - Unemployment rate at 3.7% (expected to tick up to 3.8%
    - Briefing.com: This report is not likely to persuade the FOMC to cut rates as soon, or as much, as the market had hoped. As a result, the fed funds futures market repriced the probability of a 25-basis points rate cut at the March FOMC meeting to 20.5% (from 38.0% yesterday and 47.6% one week ago) while the probability of a 25-basis points rate cut at the May FOMC meeting has been reduced to 74% (from 93.8% yesterday), according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
    - markets were a bit flushed on the initial report but tossed it aside and preferred to focus on META earnings

    Rate Cut Odd for MARCH
    - As a result of the Fed meeting and employment report, the fed funds futures market repriced the probability of a 25-basis points rate cut at the March FOMC meeting to 20.5% (from 38.0% yesterday and 47.6% one week ago) while the probability of a 25-basis points rate cut at the May FOMC meeting has been reduced to 74% (from 93.8% yesterday),

    SO REACHING
    - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Friday that while the January job report was impressive on the surface, underlying details were not as strong.
    - “The headline number was almost breathtaking,” Goolsbee said in an interview on the “PBS NewsHour” program.
    - “If you peel back the onion a little bit, it’s not as strong as that headline number advertises … but it’s still very strong,” he said.
    - In particular, he noted that hours worked fell 0.2% last month despite the jump in net new jobs.

    Amazon - Blowout
    - Earnings per share: $1.00 vs. 80 cents expected by LSEG
    - Revenue: $170 billion vs. $166.2 billion expected
    - Amazon Web Services: $24.2 billion vs. $24.2 billion, according to StreetAccount
    - Advertising: $14.7 billion vs. $14.2 billion, according to StreetAccount
    - Amazon said first-quarter sales will be between $138 billion and $143.5 billion, representing growth of 8% to 13%. Analysts were expecting revenue of $142.1 billion, according to analysts.

    META - BLOW-OOOUUUUTTTT
    - Meta Platforms beats by $0.51, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus;
    - FY24 total expense guidance unchanged at $94-$99 bln,
    - CapEx guidance of $30-$37 bln, up $2.0 bln at high end;
    - They stopped spending on META.
    - Initiates quarterly dividend of $0.50/share, also announces $50 bln increase to share repurchase program.
    - Stock up 21%

    Apple Earnings
    - headline: Apple beats by $0.08, beats on revs; iPhones and services beat; China revenue declines 13.1% 
    - Magic words: CEO Tim Cook thinks there is a huge opportunity to for Apple on AI, but he does not want to get ahead of things.
    - Apple reports Q1 iPhone revenue of $69.

    • 1 hr 2 min

Customer Reviews

4.5 out of 5
396 Ratings

396 Ratings

retrieverbuddy ,

Yakity Yak

Always something learned. Moo Wagyu…gonna give your cooking suggestions a go

noarminian ,

Fast forward to the 10 minute mark.

Horowitz likes to talk about himself for the first 10 minutes or so. Still a 5.

Guiddm ,

Being crass

Incredible that you’ll make fun of Christians and Catholics and then in the very next sentence complaining about Kanye West being antisemitic… Stunning.

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