Hedge Heads

Blue Creek Commodities
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Commodity market discussion. We don't know where the market's going, but we have some ideas.

  1. Spring Panic, Soybean Moves & Cattle Hedges: What to Do When Nothing Works

    3D AGO

    Spring Panic, Soybean Moves & Cattle Hedges: What to Do When Nothing Works

    Warm weather's arriving—but that doesn't mean optimism is. In this week's Hedge Heads, Jon Prischmann and Ryan Tungseth dig into the gloomy outlook facing grain producers this spring. With old crop dragging, inputs still high, and no crop battle in sight, many are asking: What can you actually do in markets like this? They explore why swing trades and short-term spreads might be the only way to stay in the game, how a surprise bean rally shook things up, and why cattle hedging deserves serious attention—especially at these price levels. Plus, why now is not the time to be shorting calls, and what silver, crude oil, and politics have to do with grain market sentiment. If you're feeling stuck, this is the episode to help you move forward.

    32 min
  2. Grain Decisions: Lock It In or Wait It Out?

    FEB 3

    Grain Decisions: Lock It In or Wait It Out?

    It's decision time. Corn and soybean markets are stuck in tight ranges—but the clock is ticking. This week, Jon Prischmann and Ryan Tungseth break down why February could be the most important month of the season for old crop and new crop planning. They cover key price levels to watch, how cold weather has slowed grain movement, and what the spreads are saying about commercial demand. More importantly, they lay out re-ownership strategies using July vs. September corn calls, and why getting the timing wrong could cost you. Plus, a quick hit on feeder cattle hedging, natural gas chaos, and why wheat's rangebound behavior might be the only play that's working.

    30 min
  3. Corn Crossroads: Lock It In or Wait It Out?

    JAN 27

    Corn Crossroads: Lock It In or Wait It Out?

    This week's episode is focused on corn, and why it's time to make some decisions. Jon Prischmann and Ryan Tungseth break down old crop and new crop strategies, outlining three paths producers are considering right now: lock in with hedge-to-arrives, wait for a price rally, or sell and re-own the upside with inexpensive September calls. With strong demand being outweighed by burdensome stocks and expectations of a 95+ million acre planting season, there's limited room for upside without a major weather event. They also explain why inflation signals in gold and silver aren't likely to pull grains higher, and why oil is the market to watch. If you haven't set a plan for spring yet, this is the episode to get you moving.

    28 min
  4. The Missing Piece in Most Farm Hedging Plans

    JAN 21

    The Missing Piece in Most Farm Hedging Plans

    This week on Hedge Heads, Jon Prischmann is joined by farm management coach Brett Oelke of Innova Agra for a deep dive into the part of risk management most producers skip—and pay for later. They break down why hedging without a true cost-of-production plan sets farms up to fail, how misaligned bankers quietly limit marketing decisions, and why elevator contracts alone won't cut it in today's margin environment. The conversation digs into building real budgets, using spreads and options to add revenue instead of hope, and why the next few years will reward producers who treat marketing like a business, not a guess.

    55 min
  5. A Devastating January Report...Now What?

    JAN 13

    A Devastating January Report...Now What?

    This wasn't just a bad report...it was the kind of January surprise that forces you to rethink everything. Massive acreage changes, record yields, weak demand, and almost no volatility response left corn, beans, and wheat reeling. Jon Prischmann and Ryan Tungseth break down why this report is historically troubling, why it's different from past bearish shocks, and what it means for old crop, new crop, and even 2026 planning. They discuss why traditional hedging tools aren't working, what signals still matter when prices are under pressure, and where the few remaining opportunities might come from. It's a tough conversation—but one every producer needs to hear right now.

    28 min
  6. Bored Markets, Cheap Options, Big Report Risk

    JAN 6

    Bored Markets, Cheap Options, Big Report Risk

    It's the first Hedge Heads episode of 2026, and the markets feel asleep. That's exactly why this setup matters. Jon and Ryan break down why the January 12 report could be the first real catalyst in a while, how to think about risk when corn has been stuck in a tight range, and what the spreads and basis are quietly signaling about nearby demand. They also get practical on strategy: the overlooked "in-between" serial options, when short-dated coverage makes sense versus owning more time, and what it really takes for straddles and strangles to pay in a low-volatility environment. From there, the conversation widens out into cattle, where tight numbers are fighting questionable demand and policy pressure, plus a quick tour through oil's unusual structure and the strange strength in precious metals. As always, the goal is simple: don't force trades out of boredom, but don't miss the moments when the market gives you a window.

    36 min
  7. Theta Farmer on Options, Volatility, and Playing the Long Game

    12/30/2025

    Theta Farmer on Options, Volatility, and Playing the Long Game

    Jon Prischmann and Ryan Tungseth are joined by Theta Farmer for a wide-ranging discussion on options, volatility, and what disciplined risk management looks like in today's grain markets. Rather than chasing trades, the conversation focuses on patience, timing, and understanding when the market is offering opportunity—and when it isn't. Theta shares how he thinks about selling time, managing positions before expiration, and why low-volatility environments often call for doing less, not more. They also touch on 2026 market outlooks, seasonality, and why having a plan matters more than predicting price direction.

    39 min
  8. The Real Reason Options Don't Work for Most Traders

    12/23/2025

    The Real Reason Options Don't Work for Most Traders

    Most option trades fail long before the market ever moves. In this Christmas episode of Hedge Heads, Jon Prischmann and Ryan Tungseth break down the real decision-making process behind option selection—why timeframes matter, when short-term options make sense, and why the cheapest premium is often the most expensive mistake. They walk through how market structure, seasonality, and volatility should drive your choices, not gut feel or sticker price. The conversation also touches on crude oil's unusual setup, where spreads are sending a very different signal than futures prices, and wraps with a candid look at cattle risk heading into the new year. If you've struggled to make options work, this episode focuses on the "why" that usually gets overlooked. 122325-HedgeHeadsPod

    37 min
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Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
2 Ratings

About

Commodity market discussion. We don't know where the market's going, but we have some ideas.

Information

  • Creator
    Blue Creek Commodities
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    99
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2024
  • Show Website
    Hedge Heads

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