Ecommerce Playbook: Numbers, Struggles & Growth

Common Thread Collective

2020 transformed the world of ecommerce forever. For the modern DTC brand, the rewards have never been greater. But the waters have also never been choppier, and the way forward has never been more uncertain. So how do you navigate this dangerous new reality? No matter how you do it, you’d better not do it alone. That’s where the Ecommerce Playbook Podcast comes in — join Common Thread Collective’s Taylor Holiday & Richard Gaffin as they bring you guiding insights from across CTC’s portfolio of growing DTC businesses. Whether you need a clear view on the macro issues affecting the world of ecommerce, or want to reorient your business around groundbreaking new big-picture strategies, Taylor & Richard are here to help answer the tough questions about what it takes to scale — and sustain — an ecommerce business.

  1. 1d ago

    Why September Is the Most Important Month of Your Q4

    Black Friday is not won in November. According to CTC data, brands that grow their active customer file by 10% or more this year have a 77% chance of beating last year's BFCM — with a median result of 40% growth. The brands that hold back in September are the ones that underperform in Q4. Topics covered in this episode: Why your active customer file is the single biggest predictor of BFCM performance The data: 77%, 50%, and 30% — what your customer file growth tells you right now How CTC defines and measures the active customer file across Shopify brands Why short-term LTV peaks in the first 30 to 60 days after acquisition Why that window gets heightened heading into BFCM, not reduced The case for leaning into acquisition spend now rather than saving it for November How to measure the incremental impact of your media spend in September vs. BFCM What incrementality factors are and how CTC has seen them across brands The step-by-step September playbook: file, scenarios, moments, measurement Why the fear of pulling revenue forward or confusing your BFCM offer is overblown Show Notes: Q4 waits for no one. AppLovin is offering $5K ad credit when you spend $5K. Go to applovin.com/ctc to set up your first campaign Explore the Prophit Engine: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-engine The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have

  2. 3d ago

    The Supplement Industry Is Broken, Sports Cheating Is Rational, and Influence Is Misunderstood

    Taylor and Andrew dig into three topics that have more in common than you think: why the supplement industry struggles to build real moats, whether the Dodgers and Clippers crossed ethical and legal lines, and the most important marketing distinction almost nobody is making between influencers and creators. Topics covered in this episode:  Why no supplement brand has a defensible customer acquisition cost AG1, Gruns, and how a form factor change can destroy a cohort IMA's billion-dollar debt facility built specifically to fund CAC Where the real moats in health and wellness actually are: hardware, data, and telehealth Mark Walter, insurance float allegations, and the Dodgers cheating scandal The Clippers punishment: $30M and five first-round picks Parity in sports: why big markets winning is actually better for the product Joy as the delta between expectation and reality Creators vs. influencers: why this distinction matters more than your entire creative strategy The Mark Dowdle and Rapid hat story: what real influence actually looks like How to approach influencer marketing at $0 vs. 8-figure revenue Equity deals, embedded influencers, and the Jason Khalipa model DHH on AI: the most optimistic take Taylor has heard Agency cash management: should you hold reserves or get a revolver? Show Notes: Visit eCapital  to see how much working capital you may qualify for: https://bit.ly/4xO3VDd Explore the Prophit Engine: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-engine The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have

  3. Sep 10

    The Re-Hire Nobody Saw Coming

    One of CTC's earliest hires just returned after years away. He left to build his own media agency, acquired a major email and retention agency, then co-founded a beverage company where mastering subscription economics was the only path to survival. Now he is back, and the skills he forged along the way make him a different kind of asset for 7-to-9-figure ecommerce brands than when he first walked in the door. Our guest today is a returning member of the CTC family — a media buyer turned agency founder turned beverage entrepreneur, now rejoining as a senior leader focused on retention strategy, media, and industry events. Find out who it is in this episode. Topics covered: The original CTC hiring story and what early platform arbitrage taught him about finding edges Why he left CTC and what he set out to prove by building his own agency Acquiring a top email and retention agency and what running lifecycle marketing for real clients taught him Co-founding a beverage company and what subscription economics looks like from inside a real P&L Why Statlas and CTC's current scale made returning the obvious move The financial forecast connection: why email revenue expectations must be tied to the paid calendar Where offer-to-ad-to-landing-page continuity breaks down at most brands Deep storytelling vs. volume tactics: a real example of what actually drives conversion Active vs. lapsed customer strategy and the economics of subscription reactivation Commerce Roundtable events and Hyrox Anaheim Dec 3-4 Show Notes: Go to http://outersignal.com/thread to get 50% off your first two months Explore the Prophit Engine: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-engine The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have

  4. Sep 8

    The Service That Turned a Brand's Worst Summer Into Its Best.

    CTC's Marketing Moments service is built to create new revenue spikes for 7-figure brands through structured offer testing, targeted landing pages, and high-volume creative. In this episode, host Richard Gaffin sits down with Roberto Fink, Profit Engineer at CTC, to break down exactly how the service works and why every brand that has signed up has seen at least one meaningful unlock. In this episode: What Marketing Moments is and the COAL framework behind it (Content, Offer, Acquisition funnel, Landers) What each brand gets: 2 marketing moments per month, 1 landing page + 20-25 creatives each How the program evolved from calendar-event hooks to evergreen offer testing year-round The 100% hit rate: every enrolled brand has unlocked incremental spend, better efficiency, or higher AOV Why CTC's view of a brand's P&L and margin profile lets it engineer offers that improve margin AND unlock higher CPA bids The men's grooming brand that had its first ever profitable summer, with offer campaigns driving 75% of account spend Show Notes: Go to https://bit.ly/4cbihFx to Claim $25,000 in Lutiq platform credits Explore the Prophit Engine: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-engine The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have

  5. Sep 2

    What a Profit Engineer Does Every Day at CTC

    Most agencies promise results. Few can show you the system behind them. In this episode, Randall Thompson sits down with Jar, a Profit Engineer at CTC who previously built and scaled a multi-7-figure apparel brand, to break down exactly what the Profit Engineer role looks like day to day. From daily contribution margin targets inside Statlas to the 4 levers that actually move paid media performance, this is an inside look at how CTC drives predictable, profitable growth across 7-figure and 8-figure ecommerce brands. Topics covered: What a Profit Engineer does every morning (and why contribution margin comes first) The 3 forecasting models inside Statlas: Spending Power, Retention, and Event Effect How to diagnose a volume problem vs. an efficiency problem The 4 levers of paid media: Creative, Offers, CRO, and Marketing Moments How Statlas Jams work and why collective knowledge across 170+ brands matters Base plans vs. stretch goals and how to beat the model What separates CTC from agencies that promise big and deliver small CTC stat: $3B in GMV managed, within 3% of forecast target, 40%+ contribution margin growth, 30%+ revenue growth (2025). Show Notes: Q4 waits for no one. AppLovin is offering $5K ad credit when you spend $5K. Go to https://applovin.com/en/ad-experience?referralCode=CTC to set up your first campaign Explore the Prophit Engine: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-engine The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have

  6. Sep 1

    Why Your Email Strategy Is Not a Content Calendar

    In this episode Luke breaks down the complete CTC email methodology as part of the Canon series. This is the framework CTC uses to build email programs that generate a median of 22% of total store revenue, with the scaffolding to push well beyond that for brands operating at the highest level. What you will learn: Why an email plan is a revenue forecast commitment, not a content calendar The three-act framework: hit the forecast, expand volume, add segmentation All 10 core flows and how to tier them by priority The 4 campaign types CTC uses and when to deploy each Moment orchestration across standard days, promo days, launch days, and sales events Why revenue per recipient decays with volume but total profit keeps growing Engagement and lifecycle segmentation dimensions and how to combine them Attribution settings: 3-day click, exclude opens The Statlas Email Plan and how it connects email to the revenue forecast Key stat: Email delivers 22% of total store revenue (median) across CTC-managed brands, with range from sub-10% all the way to 65%. Show Notes: Visit eCapital  to see how much working capital you may qualify for: https://bit.ly/4xO3VDd Explore the Prophit Engine: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-engine The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have

  7. Aug 27

    Diversify Now: The 6-Week Q4 Window Closing Fast

    Richard and Luke (newly promoted President at CTC) break down why channel diversification is no longer optional for 8-figure ecommerce brands heading into Q4 and what creative diversification actually means when you need 1,000-plus ads per month from 100-plus creators. This episode covers the exact tools, platforms, and testing frameworks that changed CTC's position on scaling beyond Meta and Google. What we cover: Why CTC reversed its position on channel diversification How Statlas automation now pushes thousands of ads per month Why geo holdout incrementality testing is now in-house at CTC Creative diversification as production source diversity, not format diversity The 3-4 production source minimum before Q4 Why 3% of ads drive 80-plus percent of spend Finding your top 20-30 creators before the September window closes AppLovin, TikTok GMV Max, and YouTube Demand Gen entering Q4 CTC's Mountain partnership for Connected TV geo holdout testing Key stat: 3% of ads drive more than 80% of spend. Find your outliers before Q4 locks in. Show Notes: Go to http://outersignal.com/thread to get 50% off your first two months Explore the Prophit Engine: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-engine The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have

  8. Aug 25

    We Analyzed $1.5 Billion in Meta Spend. Here's What We Found.

    We connected Claude to our Statlas database and analyzed $1.5 billion in Meta spend across 320 accounts and $100 million in Google spend across 134 stores. The question: do platform bid controls actually deliver what they promise? Tony Chopp, CTC's VP of Media Investment, walks through what we found — and what it means for how you build your paid media foundation. Min ROAS hits its target. Cost per result does not. On Meta, cost per result goal achieved its target less than half the time. On Google, tROAS ran above target at 1.3x. tCPA ran below at 0.8x. ROAS-based bidding gives the algorithm more flexibility to find high-value buyers. TikTok's GMV Max budget scaling solves the liquidity vs. predictability tension. The brands willing to spend the most to acquire a customer win the auction. The takeaway: build your paid media foundation on ROAS-based bidding. Not because it's a rule — because the data says it gives you the best chance to thread the needle between maximum investment and margin protection. Show Notes: Go to https://bit.ly/4cbihFx to Claim $25,000 in Lutiq platform credits Explore the Prophit Engine: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-engine The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at podcast@commonthreadco.com to ask us any questions you might have

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2020 transformed the world of ecommerce forever. For the modern DTC brand, the rewards have never been greater. But the waters have also never been choppier, and the way forward has never been more uncertain. So how do you navigate this dangerous new reality? No matter how you do it, you’d better not do it alone. That’s where the Ecommerce Playbook Podcast comes in — join Common Thread Collective’s Taylor Holiday & Richard Gaffin as they bring you guiding insights from across CTC’s portfolio of growing DTC businesses. Whether you need a clear view on the macro issues affecting the world of ecommerce, or want to reorient your business around groundbreaking new big-picture strategies, Taylor & Richard are here to help answer the tough questions about what it takes to scale — and sustain — an ecommerce business.

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