Learn more about Brodie's Research Database & AI Assistant 📄🔍 For MORE Run Smarter Resources 🏃♂️📚- Including Free Injury Prevention Courses 🩹🎓- The Run Smarter Book 📖- Access to Research Papers 📄🔍- & Ways to Work with Brodie 🤝👟👉 CLICK HERE! 🎉✨ Predicting Future Injuries & Early Detection with Prof. Eric Hegedus In today’s rerun episode, Brodie sits down once again with Professor Eric Hegedus—physical therapist, clinician, researcher, and one of the podcast’s favourite returning guests. Eric previously joined us in Episode 186 to dive into return-to-running principles. Today, he’s back to explore one of the hardest and most misunderstood topics in running science: Can we actually predict running injuries?If so, how? And what should runners do with that information? Using insights from his 3-year prospective cohort study, Eric walks us through what physical performance tests can and cannot tell us about injury risk—and why simple movement screens like single-leg squats may be more powerful than we ever realised. We also dive into psychosocial risk factors, early warning signs, modern wearable data, and why injury prediction research is evolving rapidly. What This Episode Covers Why Eric designed a study to challenge the Functional Movement Screen (FMS)The 15 bodyweight performance tests studied across 360 athletesWhich movement patterns actually mattered for overuse injuriesThe shocking finding: when motor control was considered, past injury stopped predicting future injuryWhy weak glute medius and poor ankle mobility show up repeatedly in injured runnersHow poor movement gives you “less wiggle room” before overloadWhy injury prediction today is no longer just movement → injury, but a multifactorial real-time modelThe four early warning signs of an upcoming injury episodePractical takeaways all runners can apply immediatelyKey Insights & Takeaways 1. Movement Quality Matters More Than We Thought Eric’s research found that poor single-leg or double-leg squat control was strongly associated with future overuse injuries—even more than past injury history. When movement quality was poor, “past injury” no longer predicted new injury. This indicates: Poor motor control = major vulnerabilityRunners with poor control have less buffer when workloads fluctuateRunners who move well have a much larger margin for errorSymptoms of poor control during squats include: Knees collapsing inwardTrunk rotatingHeels liftingUsing the spine instead of hips/knees to descendThese often reflect: Weak glute mediusPoor ankle mobilityPoor neuromuscular coordination after prior injury2. The Tests That Truly Matter Eric’s study grouped bodyweight tests into: Active motionMotor controlHip stabilityFlexibilityPowerBut the only category that consistently correlated with overuse injury was: Motor Control: quality of double-leg and single-leg squat These tests are simple, take 20 seconds, and anyone can self-assess in front of a mirror. 3. Early Warning Signs of an Injury (Clear Red Flags) Eric highlights four factors runners should monitor weekly: FatigueStress levelsSleep qualityMuscle sorenessWhen all four trend in the wrong direction, an injury is often imminent. 4. Wearables Are Changing Injury Prediction Unlike old studies that tested athletes once per year, modern tech (Garmin, Whoop, Oura, etc.) collects real-time data—giving much stronger prediction models. Right now, Eric estimates we can predict injury with: 👉 30–50% confidence Already far better than the past, and improving rapidly. 5. Runners Must See Themselves as Whole Humans Mechanical load alone doesn't explain injuries. Psychological and lifestyle factors matter just as much: TravelStressPoor sleepRelationship/social strainHigh sorenessReduced recovery behaviorsIgnoring these variables leads runners into repeated injury cycles. 🧠 Practical Tips for Runners Film yourself doing a single-leg and double-leg squat → check knee control, trunk alignment, ankle mobilityAvoid running when fatigued, highly stressed, poorly slept, or extremely soreBuild glute medius strength (side planks, hip abduction variations)Improve ankle mobility if squats improve with heels elevatedConsider cross-training to break unidirectional overloadTake easy days without guilt—they prevent injury, not reflect weaknessLook at yourself as a whole athlete: body + mind + lifestyle📚 Related Research Mentioned Hegedus et al. Physical performance tests predict injury in NCAA athletesChris Bramah: Hip drop & knee mechanics associated with running injury (Referenced within conversation)👤 About Today’s Guest: Prof. Eric Hegedus Eric Hegedus is a professor, clinician, researcher, and highly respected physiotherapist whose body of work spans biomechanics, injury risk, and clinical reasoning. His research is widely used globally in sports rehabilitation and athlete screening.
