The NZ Property Market Podcast

Cotality NZ
  • 5.0 (1)
  • Investing
  • Weekly

Brought to you by Cotality, formerly CoreLogic. Each week co-hosts Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson will bring you all the latest news, stats and insight to keep you up to date with everything to do with the NZ residential property market. Including sales volumes, house price indices, buyer activity, interest rates, loan-to-value ratio restrictions and all of the macro economic factors that influence our largest asset class. Contact us on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CLThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. 

  1. 18h ago

    Jobs quietly rising & first-home buyers price up

    Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! First-home buyers aren't just picking up the cheapest homes on the market. The latest Westpac Cotality First Home Buyer Report shows they've grown their market share in every price bracket. They're also buying more standalone houses and taking their time to get the right property. This week Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson go through the report's less obvious findings. In the middle 40% of the market by price, first-home buyers now account for 30% of purchases, up from 25% four or five years ago. 76% of their purchases in 2026 have been standalone houses. And their average age has edged up to 35.5, possibly because there's simply no rush. They also look back at the Reserve Bank's surprise OCR hold, unpack a quiet rise of about 28,000 filled jobs since last October, and preview Wednesday's labour market data, where unemployment could edge down to 5.5%. Plus: steady business and consumer confidence, this week's Home Value Index, the election, Halloween and the Phoenix's perfect start. This week we discuss: Across the price spectrum: First-home buyers have lifted their share in the bottom, middle and top price brackets, and still make up 14–15% of top-tier sales.More house for the money: 76% of purchases are standalone houses, and the median price paid is $715,000.Why buyers are older: Average age is up from 35 to 35.5. Is it affordability, or just no need to rush?OCR hold, looking back: Right or wrong call? Plus the US Federal Reserve holding too.The quiet jobs recovery: Filled jobs up 0.3% in September and about 28,000 higher since the October 2025 low.Labour market preview: Unemployment expected to ease from 5.6% to 5.5%. Watch participation, wage growth and underemployment.Confidence holds up: ANZ business and consumer confidence stayed steady through October despite higher fuel prices.Weekend catch-up: Halloween, junior cricket, Glenn Phillips' record T20 series and the Wellington Phoenix going three from three.🔗 Download the Westpac Cotality First Home Buyer Report: https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights/media/first-home-buyers-new-zealand-record-29-5-percent-share 🔗 October Home Value Index (public Thursday): https://www.cotality.com/nz/our-data/indices Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

  2. 4d ago

    FHB Record: First Home Buyers Claim 29.5% Market Share 📈

    Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! First-home buyers are officially dominating the New Zealand property landscape. As we step into the next political cycle, the latest co-branded Westpac & Cotality First Home Buyer Report reveals that FHBs captured an all-time record 29.5% of all property purchases in Q3 2026. In this special guest episode, Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson is joined once again by Westpac Senior Economist Satish Ranchhod to launch the report and unpack the granular lending insights you won't find anywhere else. The guys discuss how lower house prices in Tāmaki Makaurau / Auckland and Te Whanganui-a-Tara / Wellington are giving buyers unprecedented purchasing power, allowing them to skip the traditional "starter unit" and leap directly into standalone homes. They also dig into the shifting demographics of buyers, including why the average age of a first-home buyer has crept up to 35.5–36 years, and explain what a changing interest rate environment means for your borrowing strategy. This week we discuss: The 29.5% Record: Why first-home buyers are outperforming every other buyer group across Aotearoa New Zealand.The Price vs. Value Equation: How FHBs are spending slightly more on average ($715k vs. $701k last year) but securing larger, standalone homes.Westpac Lending Insights: A deep dive into actual loan-to-value ratios (LVR) ticking just above 80% on average, and why most buyers are still scraping together a full 20% deposit.The Demographics Shift: Why the average FHB age is now 35–36, and how the absence of FOMO is letting families take their time to buy.Economic Crosswinds: Satish's macro outlook for 2027, featuring strong inflation heading toward 4% and the implications for further RBNZ rate hikes.The "New Normal" of Capital Gains: Why the days of double-digit annual house price spikes are likely gone, and why that’s actually great news for long-term housing affordability.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

  3. 5d ago ·  Bonus

    RBNZ Shocks Market: OCR Held at 2.75%!

    Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has defied near-universal economist expectations, voting to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.75% rather than hiking to 3.00%. In this special, fast-turnaround reactionary episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dissect the RBNZ's October monetary policy review minutes after its release. They break down the razor-thin 4–3 split on the Monetary Policy Committee, examine why the majority chose to look through the temporary global fuel shock to avoid crushing domestic households, and explore why this is a "wait-and-see" pause rather than a change in direction. The team also discusses the RBNZ’s explicit prediction of a 4.4% inflation spike in Q4, what this decision means for retail mortgage rates, and how the upcoming 7 November general election and subsequent coalition negotiations will extend the market's cautious holding pattern. This week we discuss: The 4–3 Surprise Hold: Inside the committee's division, including the three members who voted for an immediate hike (Conway, Gourley, and Silk) and the four who successfully pushed for a pause.Looking Through Fuel Shocks: Unpacking the RBNZ’s rationale of discounting temporary supply-side disturbances (petrol and shipping costs) to avoid creating unnecessary domestic economic instability.RBNZ Projects 4.4% Inflation: Why the central bank openly expects CPI to rebound to 4.4% in Q4, but believes a temporary spike doesn't yet require immediate credit tightening.Impact on Retail Mortgage Rates: Why longer-term fixed terms remain heavily influenced by offshore wholesale swap markets, while the OCR pause buys brief breathing room for floating borrowers.The Voting Shift: Analysing how committee members' assessments of inflation risks have evolved over the last six weeks.Key Dates to Watch: Previewing next week's crucial labour market and unemployment data (4 November) and the general election (7 November).Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

  4. 6d ago

    Movers at GFC Lows: Will the OCR Rise Tomorrow?

    Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! New Zealand’s residential property market is valued at a massive $1.66 trillion across 1.74 million dwellings, holding $1.26 trillion in household equity. Yet, despite this immense wealth buffer, relocating owner-occupiers (movers) have retreated to levels not seen since the Global Financial Crisis. This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall (fresh off a disrupted flight back from Christchurch) and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest October Housing Chart Pack. They examine why housing's 48% share of household assets may have passed its cyclical peak as KiwiSaver balances grow, why movers dropped to just 24.2% of Q3 sales (and below 20% in Auckland and Wellington), and how new builds are filling the gap for first-home buyers. The guys also break down the Q3 CPI inflation release (which slowed from 4.1% to 3.7%) and debate tomorrow afternoon’s Reserve Bank Official Cash Rate (OCR) review. While headline inflation eased on imported tradables, sticky domestic inflation (3.3%) and renewed Middle East fuel price pressures mean an OCR hike to 3.00% looks highly likely - though Nick plays devil’s advocate on why the RBNZ could hold until December. Plus, Nick recaps the Taniwha's NPC Final in Christchurch, sold-out Lion Red kegs, and Kelvin’s backyard cricket treat in Lincoln. This week we discuss: The $1.66 Trillion Asset Class: Breaking down 1.74 million dwellings, $404 billion in mortgage debt, $1.26 trillion in equity (24% whole-market LVR), and $78 billion in annual turnover.Peak Housing Wealth? Why Stats NZ's estimate of housing making up 48% of household assets may be edging down as KiwiSaver and share portfolios expand.Movers Near GFC Lows (24.2%): Why relocating owner-occupiers are sitting tight (dropping below 20% in Auckland and to 18% in Wellington) and clogging up the existing housing chain.Q3 CPI Inflation Slows to 3.7%: Unpacking the drop from 4.1%, driven by tradables (4.9% down to 4.3%) while non-tradables edged down only slightly (3.4% to 3.3%).Tomorrow's OCR Decision Preview: Why consensus points to an 80-90% chance of a hike tomorrow, contrasted with the devil's advocate case for waiting until December.Westpac First-Home Buyer Report Preview: What to expect from this Friday's co-branded release.NPC Final, Flight Turnarounds & Backyard Cricket: Nick's whirlwind trip to Christchurch for Canterbury vs. Northland, and Kelvin stumbling onto New Zealand A vs. India A over his back fence.🔗 Download the latest Cotality Housing Chart Pack: https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights/articles/monthly-housing-chart-pack-october-2026 🔗 Keep an eye out for Friday's Westpac First-Home Buyer Report: https://www.cotality.com/nz/reports Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

  5. Oct 18

    September Sales Slump: Is the NZ Housing Market Freezing Up?

    Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson tackle the persistent slowdown in property transactions as September sales volumes reveal a clear downward trend. With nine consecutive months of year-on-year declines, the buyers hold the pricing power, but high mortgage test rates and economic caution are keeping active participants on the sidelines.  We also dive into the macroeconomic landscape, previewing the upcoming Q3 Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data and discussing what the Selected Price Indexes mean for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s next Official Cash Rate (OCR) decision. To wrap things up on a high note, Nick shares his excitement (and frantic travel plans) for Northland’s historic NPC final appearance in Ōtautahi (Christchurch)! Read the 10-Year Growth Analysis: https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights/articles/nz-housing-market-may-be-entering-a-new-era-of-lower-price-growthRegister for the Cotality Quarterly Webinar: Register now → Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

  6. Oct 12

    Building costs hit 3-year high & the one-year rate switch

    Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! Residential building costs have surged to their highest annual growth rate in three years, rising 4.8% over the last year. But with existing house prices flat to falling and listings at abundant levels, can the construction sector continue to absorb these mounting cost pressures? This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and a refreshed Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson (back from Hanmer Springs) dissect the newly released Q3 Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI). They discuss why builders are shifting away from absorbing cost surcharges under fixed-price contracts, and how this sudden price pass-through could trigger a shift where buyers substitute new builds in favour of existing properties. The team also dives into the latest Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lending data, highlighting a noticaeble shift in borrower behaviour: one-year fixed mortgage rates have inceased in popularity from roughly 20% four months ago to 30% of new lending, taking market share away from three-year terms. They discuss why pricing dynamics - including one-year specials below 5.0% - and a desire for cash-flow flexibility are driving this shift.  Finally, they explore why the 4.8% construction inflation rate places further upward pressure on the upcoming Q3 CPI release, increasing the likelihood of another RBNZ rate hike. This week we discuss:  Q3 CCCI Breakdown: Why building costs rose 4.8% (above the 4.1% general inflation rate) and why this represents the fastest acceleration since mid-2023.Cost Pass-Through & Buyer Substitution: The risk that rising new-build pricing drives buyers back to the flat-to-falling existing housing stock.The One-Year Rate Surge: Why one-year fixed rates have increased to 30% of all new lending, while three-year terms have diminished in their appeal.The RBNZ OCR Path: Why the resilient construction pipeline and rising shipping costs are raising the probability of a October OCR increase.Bledisloe & Hanmer Springs Catch-ups: Nick's trip to the All Blacks experience and holding the actual Bledisloe Cup, the All Blacks’ Test masterclass, Kelvin’s forest drives in Hanmer Springs, and Bathurst drama. 🔗 Read the full Q3 Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI) Report: https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights/articles/nz-home-building-costs-rise-at-fastest-pace-since-2022 Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

  7. Oct 5

    Why property values are sliding & the 10-year reality

    Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! National property values dipped another 0.3% in September, extending the softer winter trend across Aotearoa New Zealand. But is the market collapsing, or simply grinding through a long-planned transition? This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall (back from Rotorua) and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson (dialling in from Hanmer Springs) dissect the September Home Value Index results. They analyse why price declines are broadening into the secondary urban areas, while Christchurch and Hamilton continue to show minor resilience. The team also makes the case for why property owners should stop anchoring their expectations to the artificial 2021 peak. Kelvin shares our latest analysis showing that only 4% to 5% of properties actually transacted during that brief bubble, and reveals why the 10-year annualised growth rate of 3.2% p.a. reflects the true "new normal" for capital growth - especially in supply-rich markets like Auckland (1.2% p.a.). Finally, they examine the August filled jobs data (+0.2%) and discuss the Treasury’s cautious property updates in the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU). This week we discuss:  September HVI Declines: Why national values fell 0.3% (-1.3% YoY) and why the downturn is now broadening into regional markets like New Plymouth, Palmerston North, and Napier.Ditching the 2021 Peak Anchor: Why peak-to-trough comparisons are irrelevant for 95% of property owners, and what the 10-year annualised national growth rate of 3.2% tells us about future gains.The Auckland Supply Case Study: How the Auckland Unitary Plan transformed the city's housing supply, holding average annual capital growth to just 1.2% over the last decade.Labour Market Resilience (+0.2%): Why filled jobs rose in August and how the difference between IRD tax records and the HLFS survey affects the official unemployment rate.The Treasury PREFU Briefing: Unpacking the government's cautious house price revisions and what they mean for projected tax revenues.Bledisloe & Holiday Catch-ups: Nick's family trip to Rotorua, Kelvin's hot pool retreat in Hanmer Springs, and the looming Bledisloe Cup clash at Eden Park. 🔗 Explore the September Home Value Index: https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights/articles/nz-property-values-fall-for-sixth-straight-month-as-buyers-retain-upper-hand Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

  8. Sep 28

    8 falls in a row & Labour's tax call: Will property investors return?

    Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! August residential sales plunged nearly 12% year-on-year, marking the eighth consecutive month of annual transaction drops across Aotearoa New Zealand. With sales drifting and listings climbing, the market remains locked in an extended holding pattern. This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the findings from Cotality’s latest Housing Chart Pack. They analyse why Hamilton sales dropped 14% across the winter quarter, how first-home buyers continue to dominate market share, and what is keeping the labour market from driving an immediate recovery. The team also breaks down Labour’s major pre-election announcement ruling out changes to mortgage interest deductibility for residential landlords. Kelvin and Nick discuss why the justification - not wanting to give landlords an excuse to hike rents - misses the reality of tenant income constraints, and whether removing this tax threat will tempt investors back into the market. Finally, they review the August New Zealand Activity Index (+1.9%) and preview the upcoming Home Value Index release. This week we discuss:  The 8-Month Sales Slide: Why August sales dropped 12% YoY and why the 3-month trend shows nationwide softness (Hamilton down 14%).Labour's Interest Deductibility Call: Unpacking the politics, coalition negotiations, and why landlords cannot simply pass tax costs onto rents.Investor Psychology: Will certainty around interest deductibility open the floodgates for property investors ahead of a Capital Gains Tax debate?NZ Activity Index (+1.9%): Why economic recovery remains patchy and why labour hoarding delays hiring rebounds until 2027.Home Value Index Preview: Why early weekly data points to another slight monthly national dip (-0.3%).Weekend Sports Drama: The Taniwha's heartbreaking Ranfurly Shield loss to Counties Manukau, Wallabies upsetting the Springboks, and epic NRL finals action. 🔗 Download the latest Cotality Housing Chart Pack: https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights/articles/monthly-housing-chart-pack-september-2026  🔗 Track weekly property values with our Interactive HVI: https://www.cotality.com/nz/our-data/indices Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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About

Brought to you by Cotality, formerly CoreLogic. Each week co-hosts Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson will bring you all the latest news, stats and insight to keep you up to date with everything to do with the NZ residential property market. Including sales volumes, house price indices, buyer activity, interest rates, loan-to-value ratio restrictions and all of the macro economic factors that influence our largest asset class. Contact us on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CLThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. 

Information

  • Creator
    Cotality NZ
  • Years Active
    2020 - 2026
  • Episodes
    424
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 The NZ Property Market Podcast
  • Show Website
    The NZ Property Market Podcast

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