FARMCON Conversations

Kevin Van Trump
  • 5.0 (15)
  • Investing
  • Updated Biweekly

Our annual FARMCON conference has connected our family with some of the real movers and shakers in agriculture. Now, through this new podcast, we’re bringing those conversations directly to you. If you’re looking to separate yourself from the crowd and hear about cutting-edge ag-technology, market insights, and hard-earned lessons you won’t find anywhere else, this podcast is for you. What makes it special is the willingness of guests to openly share not only their successes, but also their failures, ideas, and keys to growth.

  1. 15h ago

    FARMCON CONVERSATIONS

    Today on FARMCON Conversations, Kevin and I get into a question that may make some people uncomfortable: is straight farming, by itself, still a durable enough business model for most families? That conversation takes us into why Kevin believes free cash flow and additional revenue streams are becoming increasingly important, why a producer’s cost of production does not determine the global price of a commodity, and why some families may eventually have to make a much bigger decision about where and how they operate. We also cover the current corn and soybean setup, Kevin’s approach to avoiding major investing mistakes, what customers really want from service businesses, and why there is a huge difference between having ideas and actually getting the ball across the goal line. FARMCON + BUSINESS8:45 — Is farming alone still enough? – Kevin explains why some of the strongest rural families he knows have built one, two or three additional businesses around the farm instead of depending entirely on production agriculture for profitability. His bigger point is that additional businesses can create the free cash flow needed to solve problems and stay aggressive when farming itself is struggling. 13:00 — What FARMCON was actually built to do – Kevin says FARMCON was never designed to teach people how to grow a better crop. The goal is to bring business ideas, business models, outside thinking and tools into rural America that can help families improve cash flow and build stronger businesses around the farm. 16:00 — Young people may have more opportunity in agriculture than they realize – Kevin argues that getting into agriculture does not have to mean starting with 1,000 acres and a full line of equipment. Land, trucks, equipment, relationships and agricultural knowledge can become the starting assets for entirely different revenue streams. MARKETS22:00 — Corn: even if USDA lowers the yield, then what? – Kevin pushes back on the idea that a lower yield automatically creates a major bull story. Even with a meaningful yield reduction, he still sees ample supply and believes the market needs either a substantially stronger demand catalyst or a new production problem to materially change the outlook. 35:00 — Your cost of production does not set the price – Kevin says one of the most dangerous assumptions in commodity businesses is believing price “has” to rise simply because your own production costs are higher. U.S. corn, wheat and other commodities compete against producers around the world who may have cheaper land, labor and inputs. Wheat is becoming the warning sign of what happens when the U.S. loses cost competitiveness. 48:30 — “Pick change before change picks you” – Kevin argues that some families may ultimately have to reconsider where they farm, what they produce or whether they remain in the business at all. Somewhere in every family tree, somebody made a difficult decision to move, change or start over—and he believes another generation may eventually have to do the same. 52:00 — Soybeans – Kevin remains more constructive on beans than corn but wants either a deeper pullback or stronger upside confirmation before becoming aggressive. He believes the longer-term demand story may still provide another opportunity. INVESTING + DECISION MAKING54:00 — Kevin is still comfortable holding cash – With returns above 5% available in relatively straightforward investments, Kevin sees little reason to force money into something where he does not believe he has an edge. His approach remains basic blocking and tackling rather than reaching for returns. 57:30 — Great investors don’t necessarily make better shots—they make smaller mistakes – Kevin compares investing with golf, pitching and poker. The real skill is avoiding the blowup: the lost ball, the five-run inning or the “second-best hand” that keeps you betting until the damage becomes enormous. BUSINESS1:02:00 — Your customer may not want the cheapest option – Kevin uses his own frustrations with insurance to make a broader business point: sophisticated customers often care more about reducing friction, headaches and wasted time than saving the last few dollars. The job is understanding what your particular customer actually values. 1:07:00 — Ideas are easy. Can you get the ball across the goal line? – Kevin explains how he evaluates people who want to run projects or businesses. Plenty of people can start with a great idea, but very few can keep driving through setbacks, penalties and problems until something is actually completed.

  2. Oct 6

    FARMCON CONVERSATIONS — with Special Guest Jake Espenmiller of Conterra Ag Capital

    Today on FARMCON Conversations, Kevin and I are joined by FARMCON partner Jake Espenmiller, President and CEO of Conterra Ag Capital. Jake sits in a unique seat where he can see what is happening across farm balance sheets, operating credit and institutional capital, and our conversation quickly moved to what happens when an operation can look extremely wealthy on paper but starts losing liquidity and financial optionality underneath. We also get into whether farmland has peaked, why some big buyers are backing away, what the strongest operators are doing differently, and how higher interest rates are changing the competition for every investment dollar. JAKE ESPENMILLER | CONTERRA AG CAPITAL52:20 — Has farmland finally peaked? – Jake largely agrees with Kevin that farmland may have reached a point where continued appreciation becomes harder. He isn’t calling for a collapse, but low cash returns and a changing buyer pool are starting to alter the math. 55:20 — 70% equity and still running out of options – Jake shares examples of operators with 60%–70% equity on the balance sheet but almost no cash reserves and difficulty securing affordable operating credit. His bigger point: once liquidity disappears, so does your ability to solve the next problem. 1:01:15 — Be careful when the financial lifeline shows up – Kevin warns from personal experience that the capital available when you are desperate can sometimes become the final nail in the coffin. Jake says one of Conterra’s first questions in alternative credit is whether both parties understand exactly how the deal will eventually unwind. 1:04:15 — Agricultural capital has more competition – Jake explains why a Treasury yielding above 5% forces farmland and agricultural loans to compete much harder for investor dollars. Capital providers now have easier, more liquid alternatives available to them. 1:06:20 — What are the strongest operators doing differently? – Looking across Conterra’s portfolio, Jake sees stronger operators creating additional profit centers and optionality through livestock, grain storage, greater control over inputs and other forms of diversification. 1:15:30 — You can afford the neighboring farm. But should you buy it? – Jake says the better question may be what sacrifices you are willing to make if the investment doesn’t perform as expected. Kevin adds one of his favorite rules: never risk what you have and need for something you don’t have and don’t need. 1:25:00 — Kevin on the mistake he made with bankers before going broke – Kevin looks back at his housing-development years and admits he treated his banker almost like an opponent, trying to hide problems in order to keep borrowing. His advice now is exactly the opposite: get the lender behind the curtain early enough that there are still options available. KEVIN + TODD2:15 — A handful of relationships can change your entire financial trajectory – Kevin shares a conversation with Jordan about how only four or five relationships may have materially changed the Van Trump family’s business and financial path—and why those relationships usually begin by putting yourself in the right rooms. 7:30 — When does cutting expenses start cutting off opportunity? – A startup deciding to conserve cash sparks a broader conversation about when cutting marketing, networking and customer access may actually accelerate the very problem a young business is trying to solve. 33:00 — Kevin starts putting cash back to work – After carrying roughly 40% cash, Kevin says he has started moving money back into equities, focusing heavily on large companies with strong balance sheets, free cash flow and the ability to fund the next stage of the AI buildout. 37:20 — Kevin is more negative on farmland than he has been in 20 years – After spending most of the past two decades bullish farmland, Kevin believes the growth in the buyer pool may finally be slowing. He isn’t predicting a crash, but questions whether the appreciation of the past can continue when capital has so many more places to go. 44:30 — Kevin on an investment thesis that stopped working – Kevin talks about high-end Kansas City condos and live/work properties that looked like great investments at one price but became much harder to sell as prices climbed and buyers suddenly had more alternatives. QUICK MARKET CHECK17:00 — Corn – Kevin remains slightly bullish longer term but believes harvest pressure and uncertainty around production could offer a better entry before demand becomes the next meaningful catalyst. 23:00 — Soybeans – Kevin remains a longer-term bull but has stepped to the sidelines after getting whipsawed. Domestic crush remains supportive, while the market still needs fresh demand headlines to keep the bull story moving. 28:45 — Wheat – Black Sea disruption still hasn’t translated into the U.S. export demand bulls expected. Kevin believes wheat probably needs either a meaningful global weather problem or a major new buyer before the setup materially changes.

  3. Sep 29

    FARMCON CONVERSATIONS: THE EDGE IS CHANGING

    This week’s conversation centered on how the edge is changing. Kevin talks about why information alone matters less in an AI-driven world, where he believes advantage comes from now, how higher rates are changing capital allocation, and the frameworks he uses to evaluate businesses, investments and opportunities. 1:15 — What FARMCON is really trying to build – Kevin explains why FARMCON is increasingly focused on helping producers become better business owners, capital allocators and leaders. 3:20 — AI made information cheap. So where does the edge come from now? – Kevin believes information itself is becoming less of an advantage. The next edge comes from networks, experience, wisdom and knowing how to separate noise from what actually matters. 19:00 — Kevin on patience – After taking soybean puts off one day too early, Kevin talks about how patience has changed throughout his trading career and whether he is actually becoming less patient as he gets older. 22:30 — When does doing more become doing too much? – Kevin questions when successful people should stop constantly adding businesses, investments and projects and begin protecting more of what they have already built. 27:45 — When is enough enough? – Kevin discusses the challenge of knowing when to stop chasing the next opportunity and redirect more energy toward family, community and helping others. 39:30 — Diesel: the next break may be the opportunity – Energy traders Kevin trusts believe diesel could experience a meaningful pullback before potentially moving sharply higher again into winter and spring. 42:30 — Don’t try to pick the bottom – Kevin explains why he would consider gradually locking in fuel on a major pullback rather than trying to perfectly time the low. 46:00 — Are the economic measurements getting old? – Kevin questions whether traditional economic data adequately captures how dramatically spending patterns have changed across generations. 54:30 — The $100,000 General Lee vs. a Treasury bond – Kevin compares buying a collectible Dodge Charger with putting the same money into a relatively low-risk investment and explains why higher interest rates change the hurdle rate for every other investment. 56:30 — Everybody is competing for the same investment dollar – Stocks, real estate, collectibles, crypto, private investments and other assets now have to compete with increasingly attractive returns available in safer investments. 1:00:00 — Has investing become another form of gambling? – Kevin talks about sports betting, day trading, collectibles and leveraged investing and his concern that delayed gratification is disappearing. 1:03:30 — Why ag-tech capital has changed dramatically – Investors have been burned, capital is no longer free and ag-tech companies now have to clear a much higher bar to attract investment. 1:06:00 — Kevin would rather back a bootstrapper – Kevin explains why he increasingly favors founders who use their own money, work directly with customers and prove the business before aggressively raising outside capital. 1:08:30 — Solve a real problem – Kevin argues that companies should solve problems producers already have rather than inventing problems simply because they have a technology or product to sell. 1:10:30 — The first thing every business needs isn’t money – Kevin says the first thing a business needs is customers. Before more capital or employees, prove that real people want the product and will pay for it. 1:12:30 — The Ted Williams approach to investing – Kevin explains why he now waits for investment opportunities that fit his experience, temperament and strengths instead of swinging at every good story. 1:17:00 — Kevin’s quick business matrix – Kevin explains how he quickly evaluates whether a business is commoditized or unique, its pricing power, customer acquisition costs, target customer and ability to retain business. 1:20:30 — You cannot learn greatness by reading about it – Kevin says young entrepreneurs need to move fast, make mistakes, learn from them and get back after it. Experience comes from doing. QUICK MARKET CHECK8:00 — Corn – Kevin sees relatively little remaining production surprise and believes demand now has to provide the next meaningful catalyst. 15:30 — Soybeans – China did not provide the additional demand catalyst bulls were hoping for, and Kevin remains interested in owning beans on a deeper pullback. 32:30 — Wheat – Black Sea disruption still has not translated into the U.S. export demand many expected, making major rallies opportunities to consider extending producer pricing farther out.

  4. Sep 22

    FARMCON CONVERSATIONS — NEW EPISODE with Special Guest KEN PACKARD of StoneX

    “It’s not bringing in the new ideas that’s so hard. It’s getting rid of the old ones.” —John Maynard Keynes Today on FARMCON Conversations, we’re joined by longtime friend and FARMCON partner Ken Packard of StoneX.Ken has spent more than 30 years in commodity futures and agricultural risk management, and our conversation quickly moved to how producers manage the entire business — revenue, inputs, interest rates, information, decision-making and the risks they may not even realize they’re carrying. 45:00 — Ken Packard joins FARMCON Conversations Kevin and Ken go back nearly 30 years to their early days in the commodity business. Ken now serves as Regional Director of Commodity Futures Client Management at StoneX. 47:00 — StoneX is much more than grain hedging Ken explains how StoneX has evolved into a global financial-services company connecting clients to commodity and financial markets, execution, clearing, technology, research and physical trading. 49:30 — What are producers asking about right now? Prices have improved, but Ken says the real question isn’t simply whether to sell corn or beans. It’s understanding the entire hand of cards an operation is holding — old crop, new crop, storage, breakevens, sales and input exposure — before making the next decision. 52:30 — Producers can now hedge fertilizer The CME recently introduced a smaller 10-ton urea futures contract, creating a tool scaled more appropriately for individual producers rather than large retailers. 58:00 — The generational change happening on farms Ken is seeing fathers increasingly encourage the next generation to develop marketing and risk-management skills they themselves may not have had time to build. His point isn’t that the old generation did it wrong. It’s that the markets are changing — and the next generation needs a larger toolbox. 1:01:00 — “I’m too busy” may be one of the biggest business risks One of the strongest parts of our conversation. Ken says some of the most successful operators deliberately make time to get their heads out of the daily grind, have conversations, test ideas and make decisions. Being busy running the farm can easily prevent you from actually building the business. 1:04:00 — Kevin: There are really only two ways to grow Either reinvest the cash your business generates back into your own business, or take that capital and invest it into someone else’s business that can compound it better. That’s the growth mindset Kevin believes separates operators who simply stay busy from those who deliberately build wealth. KEVIN & TODD — COMMODITIES, DIESEL & CAPITAL6:00 — Corn may need demand to do the heavy lifting Kevin believes the production story is becoming increasingly known.The question now is whether demand — particularly exports — can become strong enough to attract the next round of buyers necessary to push corn materially higher. 9:30 — Why bullish headlines aren’t always enough At $5.50 corn, a new speculative buyer needs to believe the upside materially outweighs the downside. Kevin explains why commodity markets can sometimes receive bullish news and still fail to rally: the market simply doesn’t attract enough new money. 11:00 — Commodities and stocks don’t trade the same way A useful market lesson from Kevin: Stocks can continually attract investors who accumulate and hold. In commodities, every buyer still needs a seller. As prices rise, increasingly powerful reasons are required to attract the next buyer. 17:00 — Soybeans still have a demand story China continues buying U.S. soybeans, although much of the purchasing is still coming through state entities rather than commercial crushers. Kevin believes beans remain fundamentally different from wheat because soybeans still have a longer-term demand story underneath them. 21:00 — Wheat has bullish headlines. What it doesn’t yet have is demand confirmation. Black Sea infrastructure disruptions continue creating risk, but U.S. export demand hasn’t responded strongly enough.Kevin’s distinction is important: Right now wheat is a dislocation story — not yet a demand story. 26:00 — Could diesel create unexpected basis opportunities? If trucks become more expensive to operate — or simply stop running — grain may not move as easily from the farm to the end user. Kevin and I discuss why producers should pay especially close attention to local basis, because transportation disruptions could create very different opportunities from one region to another. 30:00 — Why freight inflation hits agriculture differently It’s easy to spread another $1,000 of freight across a truckload of expensive electronics. It’s much harder to spread it across lettuce, watermelon, grain or other relatively low-value bulk commodities. That distinction matters throughout the agricultural supply chain. 35:00 — The Fed and the 10-speed bicycle Kevin compares the Fed to someone controlling the gears on a bicycle. Make it too difficult for the consumer to keep pedaling and eventually they hit the brakes. And when the consumer goes over the handlebars, that’s when much larger economic problems begin. 36:00 — AI spending may be much harder to slow than policymakers think Higher rates may pressure normal businesses and consumers. But Kevin doesn’t believe a quarter-point — or even substantially more — necessarily stops the largest technology companies from continuing the AI infrastructure race. There is too much capital and too much strategic importance already committed. 38:00 — Why Kevin is carrying more cash With global rates rising, energy expensive and the Fed tightening, Kevin says he’s becoming increasingly cautious. He’s reduced exposure and is holding roughly 40% cash, while concentrating remaining investments in businesses he’d be comfortable owning through a difficult market environment.

  5. Sep 15

    FARMCON CONVERSATIONS — NEW EPISODE

    NEW FARMCON PODCAST – Today we’re joined by Walter Cronin, co-founder and president of White River Nutrition, for a deep dive into what may be one of the more important structural shifts developing across the soybean complex. Walter was bullish the last time we had him on — and despite the move we’ve already seen in beans and soybean oil, he believes we may still be in the early innings. WALTER CRONIN — SOYBEANS, CRUSH, DIESEL & GLOBAL PROTEIN45:00 — Walter Cronin joins the conversation46:00 — Are we finally seeing the soybean market Walter expected?Walter explains why the move we’ve seen may be only the beginning — and how U.S. biofuel policy, soybean oil and changing global conditions are reshaping the demand side of the balance sheet. 49:20 — Did the latest WASDE change anything?Why Walter believes USDA is still behind the curve on soybean meal demand and why European feed-grain losses could become more important later in the marketing year. 51:30 — China is buying soybeans — but who is actually doing the buying?Walter discusses the importance of China’s state-controlled purchases versus commercial crush demand — and why that distinction matters. 52:40 — The U.S. crush buildout isn’t finishedMore soybean processing capacity is still coming. Walter explains why he believes both biofuel demand and global protein consumption can support additional crush. 54:00 — The protein demand story most people aren’t watchingRising incomes have historically driven protein consumption across emerging markets. Now Walter sees another source of demand developing in wealthier economies: GLP-1 drugs and the push toward higher-protein diets. 57:00 — Why diesel may now matter more than crude oilDamage to global refining capacity, shrinking diesel availability and geopolitical disruption are making diesel a critical signal for soybean oil and biofuel economics. 1:00:00 — Is the old “food vs. fuel” argument dying?Walter and Kevin discuss why Brazil’s enormous production capacity — combined with the fuel-security argument for biofuels — has fundamentally changed the debate. 1:05:00 — What could finally destroy crush demand?Walter walks through the signals he is watching in diesel inventories, refining capacity and global energy markets. 1:08:00 — The Brazil risk that could change everythingBrazil is expected to produce another massive soybean crop — but it imports roughly 80% of its fertilizer. Walter explains why fertilizer availability and distribution could become one of the most important variables to watch. 1:11:00 — What happens to all the soybean meal?Roughly 80% of a processed soybean becomes feed products. Walter explains why the feared “mountain of meal” hasn’t materialized — and where all that additional protein is going. 1:17:00 — Meal vs. oil: the economics of the new crush marketHistorically, soybean meal generated most of the crush margin. Walter says soybean oil is now punching far above its weight — fundamentally changing the economics of processing soybeans. KEVIN & TODD — MARKETS, CAPITAL & BUSINESSBefore Walter joins us, Kevin and I cover several major issues producers and investors should be thinking about: 4:20 — Corn’s next move may be about demand, not yieldKevin believes much of the production story is becoming known. The bigger question now is whether exports can carry the load — particularly if corn pushes north of $5. 9:00 — The risk of giving the corn rally backMiddle East peace, lower crude oil or weaker geopolitical risk premiums could quickly remove speculative support. Kevin explains why producers should consider taking some risk off the table after the rally we’ve already had. 13:30 — Why 2027 and 2028 grain prices deserve attention nowForward corn and wheat values are offering producers opportunities to start establishing profitable floors well before those crops are planted. 17:00 — Diesel: lock it in or stay hand-to-mouth?Despite the geopolitical uncertainty, Kevin explains why he remains firmly in the hand-to-mouth camp on fuel. 22:30 — Why Kevin wouldn’t raise interest rates hereHigher inflation driven by geopolitical energy disruptions isn’t easily solved with a quarter-point rate hike — but tightening too aggressively could create much larger economic problems. 26:00 — AI, economic growth and America’s $40 trillion debt problemWhy Kevin believes the United States ultimately has to grow its way out of the debt problem — and why AI, manufacturing and productivity will be central to that effort. 34:30 — The Chobani lesson: stop asking what the investment does to youA new billion-dollar processing facility doesn’t just create demand for milk. It creates demand for trucking, labor, feed, equipment, infrastructure and services. The better question for producers and business owners: How can I create value for the capital moving into my region? 38:00 — Why investing is more craft than formulaYou can’t learn to swim by reading a book — and Kevin argues you can’t become a great trader that way either. Markets require repetitions, experience and real capital at risk. 41:30 — The Craftsman vs. Passion MindsetSocial media trains us to chase constant dopamine hits. Farming, building businesses and mastering difficult skills force us into delayed gratification — and Kevin believes that may give rural kids an increasingly valuable advantage.

  6. Sep 8

    FARMCON CONVERSATIONS — NEW EPISODE

    NEW FARMCON PODCAST – This week Kevin and I cover a lot of ground, starting with why the rise of AI may actually make the human edge more valuable, not less. Kevin explains why street smarts, intuition, experience, hospitality, and the ability to “see around corners” could become increasingly important as everyone gains access to the same intelligence tools. We also dig into what Kevin is watching ahead of Friday’s USDA report, why corn and soybeans may now need proof rather than rumors to keep moving higher, how crop insurance could influence land values and producer behavior, what higher rates and diesel prices mean for agriculture, and why Kevin believes business ownership and real-world responsibility remain some of the best teachers for the next generation. 00:01:00 — Why AI May Make the Human Edge More ValuableKevin explains why intelligence itself is becoming commoditized and why street smarts, judgment, intuition, relationships, and real-world experience could become the differentiators. 00:20:30 — Why FARMCON Looks Outside Agriculture for IdeasFrom Formula 1 pit crews improving hospital emergency rooms to Liquid Death turning water into a billion-dollar brand, Kevin explains why some of the best ideas for agriculture may come from completely different industries. 00:33:30 — What Corn Needs From Friday’s USDA ReportKevin lays out the yield range he believes the market can tolerate, why demand remains surprisingly strong above $5 corn, and the bullish cards that are currently supporting prices. 00:43:30 — What the Cash Market Is Really Telling UsKevin explains why he will be watching basis and the December-March spread just as closely as futures after the USDA report. A futures rally without stronger cash signals could be more headline-driven than a sign of true physical scarcity. 00:48:00 — Soybeans: Bullish, But Now the Market Needs ProofKevin discusses his recent soybean positioning, continued Chinese buying, and why heavily bullish markets become vulnerable when traders need hard confirmation to justify the next leg higher. 00:56:00 — Beans, Wheat and the Acreage ResponseKevin talks through the soybean yield number that could keep the rally alive, the strong domestic crush story, South America’s likely acreage response to 14 beans, and why stronger wheat insurance guarantees could pull more acres into production. 01:01:30 — Is Crop Insurance Changing the Price of Farming?Kevin and I discuss whether stronger government-backed downside protection eventually gets capitalized into higher rents and land values, and the broader debate over government involvement in production agriculture. 01:11:00 — Rates, Diesel and the Agricultural EconomyKevin explains why he still leans toward lower rates over time, why he worries about the Fed being late as AI pressures employment, and why producers who did not lock in fuel earlier may now need to operate more hand-to-mouth. KEVIN’S QUOTES“I think the street-smart people are gonna have a huge edge moving forward.” “How are we gonna beat AI? We’re gonna lean into the human side a lot more.” “The math and science side will take you so far and add your mechanics, but that art side is what takes people from good to great.” “At this price and this elevation, you need proof now.” “You don’t wanna get greedy in this environment. I think you gotta price them.” “Get out and help people. Try to help people.” “There’s only one way out of this debt debacle, and it’s to grow our way out of it.”

  7. Sep 1

    FARMCON CONVERSATIONS — NEW EPISODE

    NEW FARMCON PODCAST – Kevin and Todd cover a lot of ground this week—from why Kevin is getting more aggressive pricing corn and wheat, to what could push soybeans toward $14, why higher wheat insurance guarantees could change 2027 planting decisions, and where dangerous “air pockets” could develop if bullish fund money starts heading for the exits. They also dig into AI, nuclear power, weather modification, the growing gambling economy, why Kevin refuses to waste energy complaining about rules he can’t control, and why the next 6–12 months could present an unusually attractive window for some farm and agribusiness owners thinking about selling. 04:00 — Why Kevin Is Selling Into the Rally – Kevin explains why he’s pricing more 2026 and 2027 corn and moving further out on wheat sales, including his first 2028 wheat sales. The key distinction: being bullish on a market does not mean a producer should leave all of the risk on the table. 07:00 — The Wheat Insurance Wild Card – Higher wheat prices could translate into substantially stronger crop-insurance guarantees for next year. Kevin explains why that could pull more acres into wheat and potentially change the economics of planting and double-cropping in 2027. 12:00 — What Could Take Corn to $6? – Kevin believes the market may currently be trading something close to a 177–178 bushel national yield. He walks through why a confirmed yield around 175 or lower, combined with continued geopolitical problems, could give bulls another significant leg higher. 22:00 — What Could Send Soybeans Toward $14? – Kevin thinks the soybean yield is moving lower and says a national yield below roughly 51.5 bushels could dramatically tighten the outlook. China continuing to buy, stronger crush demand, EPA clarification on bean oil, and deteriorating crop conditions are keeping the bull story alive. 27:00 — Where the Grain “Air Pockets” Come From – A lot of speculative money is already positioned bullish. Kevin explains how markets can suddenly drop 40, 50 or 60 cents when bullish headlines disappear and everyone who is already long starts trying to exit at the same time. 31:00 — Players Play. Officials Officiate – Kevin explains one of the philosophies that has guided him in sports, markets and business: stop wasting time complaining about the rules and adjust your game. He believes people who avoid getting distracted by things they can’t control gain a significant competitive advantage. 38:00 — Would Kevin Invest in Weather Modification? – Rainmaker recently reported successful drone-based cloud seeding in Alaska. Kevin respects the technology and the people behind it but explains why manipulating weather crosses a personal line for him as an investor — even though he believes the technology is going to continue advancing. 59:00 — Why Being Willing to Look Stupid Matters – Kevin discusses social media, external validation, entrepreneurship and why individual sports, trading and business ownership can be so valuable. His argument: real-world accountability has a way of quickly testing theories that sound great from the sidelines. 1:12:00 — Could This Be a Great Time to Sell? – With stronger commodity prices, elevated farmland values, a strong stock market and more liquidity returning to agriculture, Kevin believes the next 6–12 months could offer an attractive exit window for some owners who already expect to sell farmland or an ag business within the next several years. KEVIN’S QUOTES “Your job as a producer is to take risk off the table.” “I think it’s only a matter of time until somebody somewhere figures out a way to get some of this Black Sea grain out.” “Most of the bulls are already in. It’s going to take a continuation of these headlines to keep that market moving higher.” “Players play, coaches coach, officials officiate.” “You can’t get rabbit ears.” “You’ve got to be willing to look stupid, and you’ve got to be willing to be wrong.” “You don’t want to be trying to sell when there are more sellers than buyers.”

  8. Aug 25

    FARMCON CONVERSATIONS — NEW EPISODE

    NEW FARMCON PODCAST >> Kevin and Todd cover grain markets, China risk, the weaker-dollar trade, AI and data centers, farm leverage, and why producers still have to remain the CEO of their own business—even when surrounded by experts. THIS WEEK’S CONVERSATION08:00 — Why Kevin Sold More CornKevin explains why his resting orders were triggered around $5.20, why he rewarded the rally, and what the corn market still needs if bulls are going to attract another wave of money. 23:00 — The Hardest Part of Marketing Is Still ExecutionPrice targets have a funny way of moving higher as the market rallies. Kevin talks about pulling the trigger, knowing your own operation, and why producers give away an edge when they blindly follow someone else’s program. 27:00 — You Are the CEO of Your Business and Your LifeLawyers, accountants, doctors, agronomists and market advisers can provide valuable opinions, but Kevin argues they belong in your “boardroom”—they shouldn’t be making the final decision for you. 32:00 — Soybeans: China Is the Risk Kevin Is WatchingKevin banks his remaining bullish soybean profits and buys puts. His concern isn’t necessarily the U.S. crop—it’s what could happen to soybean demand if geopolitical tensions spill into U.S.-China trade. 40:00 — Wheat: The Grain Isn’t Gone, It’s TrappedBlack Sea disruptions are keeping wheat supported, but Kevin warns that much of the rally is built on dislocation and war premium. Any credible path to moving that grain could change the market quickly. 44:00 — Why Kevin Thinks America Has to Win the AI RaceA discussion about the weaker dollar turns into a much bigger conversation about manufacturing, data centers, national competitiveness and why Kevin has dramatically changed his thinking on the infrastructure needed to support AI. 1:03:00 — The Debasement Trade: Where Kevin Is Putting MoneyIf Washington wants a weaker dollar and inflation stays elevated, Kevin doesn’t want too much capital losing purchasing power in cash. He explains why he continues adding exposure to gold, silver, metals and Bitcoin. 1:04:00 — Would You Let AI Trade Your Money?Kevin sees tremendous value in AI, but he’s wary of becoming dependent on it for investment decisions. His concern is what happens when AI creates financial products and strategies humans can no longer fully understand when something goes wrong. 1:09:00 — Bigger Isn’t Always Better on the FarmDeere’s diversified businesses lead to a discussion about farm growth, debt and alternative return streams. Kevin explains why adding acres can make sense for the right operator—but getting bigger simply to get bigger can become dangerous when leverage is involved. KEVIN’S QUOTES“Bulls have to eat more regularly than bears.” “I think you’re a fool to follow anybody blindly. Anybody.” “You are the CEO of your business and your life.” “Your edge lies within that art on your farm, your individual farm.” “We have to win the AI race.” “You don’t want to be the cat without the chair, all levered up.” “It ain’t a matter of if you’re going to get knocked down in life. You’re going to get knocked down all the time. It’s who gets up the fastest that wins.”

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5
out of 5
15 Ratings

About

Our annual FARMCON conference has connected our family with some of the real movers and shakers in agriculture. Now, through this new podcast, we’re bringing those conversations directly to you. If you’re looking to separate yourself from the crowd and hear about cutting-edge ag-technology, market insights, and hard-earned lessons you won’t find anywhere else, this podcast is for you. What makes it special is the willingness of guests to openly share not only their successes, but also their failures, ideas, and keys to growth.

Information

  • Creator
    Kevin Van Trump
  • Years Active
    2020 - 2026
  • Episodes
    69
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © Farm Direction
  • Show Website
    FARMCON Conversations

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