Episode overview In this special episode, hosts and Co-Chief Investment Strategists Kevin Headland and Macan Nia welcome Nathan William Thooft, Chief Investment Officer for Multi Assets and Equities at Manulife Investments. Nate shares his global perspective on markets, asset allocation, and the evolving investment landscape, with insights tailored for Canadian investors. --- Key topics & insights 1. U.S. economic outlook: resilience amid uncertainty · No imminent recession expected—Nate explains that while recent U.S. labor market data has softened, it’s not likely a signal for an imminent recession. The U.S. economy’s balance between manufacturing and services helps offset sector-specific weaknesses. · Policy uncertainty—Earlier legislative and tariff changes have caused “paralysis” in company decision-making, but clarity is expected to improve economic data in coming months. · New paradigm—The severity of future U.S. recessions may be more muted due to the economy’s diversification. 2. Inflation & tariffs: what’s really happening? · Tariff impact delayed—Studies show tariffs typically take up to a year to affect inflation. Many imports are exempt, and companies are absorbing costs, leading to lower-than-expected inflationary effects. · Substitution effect—Companies are shifting imports to countries with lower tariffs, further dampening inflation pressures. 3. Regional equity markets: Europe & Asia · Europe’s outperformance—European equities have surprised with strong returns in 2025. Nate attributes this to a sentiment shift away from the U.S. amid geopolitical uncertainty, but sees it as opportunistic rather than a long-term trend. · Active vs. passive management—Active management is especially valuable in regions like Europe and Asia, where opportunities are less covered. · China’s mixed signals—Despite strong equity performance and policy support, China’s fundamentals (consumer spending, industrial production) remain weak. Nate is cautiously optimistic, citing potential in technology and AI, and improving sentiment. 4. Asset allocation: equities vs. fixed income · Modest equity overweight—Manulife portfolios remain overweight equities, reflecting solid fundamentals despite stretched valuations. · Fixed income caution—Less conviction in long-duration fixed income due to changing yield curve dynamics and rising term premiums. · Diversification beyond 60/40—Nate advocates for broader diversification, including alternative assets, to manage risk. 5. Private Assets & Alternatives · Democratization of privates—The trend toward making private assets (infrastructure, private credit, real estate) accessible to retail investors is accelerating, as seen in recent industry partnerships. · Role in portfolios—Private assets offer diversification and potential downside protection, especially when traditional fixed income may be less effective. 6. Artificial Intelligence (AI) in asset management · Efficiency & speed—AI is transforming research, data analysis, and commentary writing, but won’t replace portfolio managers who bring creativity and intellectual capital. · Research revolution—AI enables analysis of vast data sets, improving productivity and decision-making. 7. Cryptocurrency: a legitimate asset class? · Growing acceptance—Nate views crypto as a legitimate asset class, though volatility and regulatory uncertainty mean exposures should remain modest and client-specific. · Regulatory trends—As demand grows, policy is likely to become more accommodating. 8. Career advice for aspiring portfolio managers · Decisiveness—Don’t wait for perfect information—make decisions with 60–80% of the data to avoid missing opportunities. · Passion & objectivity—Be passionate about investing, but unemotional in decision-making. The ability to cut losses and remain objective is crucial for success. --- Actionable takeaways for Canadian investors · Stay diversified—Consider global opportunities and alternatives beyond traditional stocks and bonds. · Monitor policy impacts—Watch for delayed effects from tariffs and monetary policy. · Embrace active management—Especially in regions with less coverage and more inefficiencies. · Explore private assets—As access expands, these can enhance portfolio resilience. · Leverage technology—AI will increasingly support research and efficiency, but human insight remains essential. --- Links & Resources · Listen to the episode: Investments Unplugged Podcast · Learn more about Manulife Investments: Manulife IM Canada --- Share & Subscribe If you enjoyed this episode, please share it with your network and subscribe for future insights on markets, investing, and portfolio strategy. --- For informational purposes only. This episode does not constitute investment advice. Please consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions. --- Show notes prepared by Investments Unplugged Podcast Team, September 2025.
