In this episode of HurricaneCenter, the panel opens with the first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic season already affecting the Texas coast. Bill Reed walks through the early impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur, including tropical-storm-force winds near the coast, heavy localized rainfall, elevated tides and coastal water issues from Galveston to Bolivar and southwest Louisiana. Dr. Hal Needham joins live from the Galveston Seawall, where rough Gulf conditions and strong winds are already being felt, but he stresses that the main impact from Arthur is rainfall flooding rather than a major storm surge event. The featured guest is Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University, who breaks down the latest CSU outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Unlike recent years that leaned well above normal, the updated forecast calls for a somewhat below-normal season: 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. With Arthur now named, that leaves 10 additional named storms in the forecast. Phil explains why the forecast has shifted lower: El Niño. He walks through how warmer water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific can change global wind patterns, increase sinking motion over the Atlantic and, most importantly, strengthen vertical wind shear across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. That shear can tilt and disrupt tropical systems, making it especially difficult for long-lived major hurricanes to develop. The conversation also covers why weak, short-lived storms like Arthur can still form during El Niño years. Phil explains that El Niño tends to suppress stronger storms more than weak tropical storms, especially in the deep tropics. That means the season can still produce impacts, especially from close-to-land or higher-latitude systems, even when the overall basin activity is expected to be lower. Phil also discusses CSU’s forecasting process, including historical analog years, statistical models, climate model guidance, ACE, western Atlantic landfall probabilities and new AI-driven forecasting tools. He notes that the strongest El Niño impacts are typically felt later in the season, especially in September and October, when background shear increases and Caribbean development often becomes much less favorable. The episode closes with a look back at Arthur’s real-time impacts along the Texas coast, a preview of Hal Needham’s upcoming Extreme Explorations documentary work, and a tease for next week’s guest, Mike Lowry. Support the show Suggest a topic or ask a question: alex@wxguide.com Visit our conference site: www.hurricanecenterlive.com Thanks for listening and please share with your friends and co-workers.