Lagniappe Stokes Family Office

It’s peak season in Nola with Jazz Fest, the Zurich Classic, the Pels in the Playoffs, and town is buzzing. We’ll zoom out to examine what all that spending means for the national economy. We’ll also look at wide-breadth market participation and why despite a sell-off in tech, the rest of the market is holding up well. We finish with a rearview mirror view of COVID-era oil prices, how we missed a recession, and what we’re expecting for the rest of this year. 

Key Takeaways

[00:20] - Fun times in Nola and what that means for the national economy

[03:00] - Mixed signals from the country’s biggest economists 

[06:38] - Things look good with the rest of the 495 S&P stocks

[12:18] - The COVID oil crash and why you stick with a game plan

[18:20] - Looking back at how we missed a recession & ahead to the rest of 2024


Links

S&P 500 Is Ripe for Further Gains, JPMorgan’s Trading Desk Says

Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Is Steering Clear of Bold S&P 500 Calls

Meta tumbles 12% after a disappointing second-quarter revenue forecast

S&P 1500 Value P/E

How rare was Friday? 300+ S&P 500 stocks were green, yet the index was down 0.9% which has only happened once since 1998

Four years ago, oil prices went negative

How rising interest rates change the relationship between stocks and bonds


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Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office


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Disclosure
The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

While the debt doomers circle, we’ll examine why no one is good at forecasting and why widely acceptable notions of cross-asset correlations are wrong. We’ll also focus on the market's strengths and discuss the incredible power of America’s dollar, wages, and efficient energy output.

Key Takeaways

[00:17] - Inflation Update + shelter’s outsized effect

[06:33] - Disinflation + the debt-doom loop

[09:40] - The power of the US: the Dollar, our wages, energy production

[13:36] - The incredible efficiency of modern oil/energy markets

[15:09] - What’s happened recently when the SP has broken a positive trend line

[16:16] - The surprising market reaction to Iran’s missile attack


Links

Bilello: The Start of a Correction (March CPI Data)

Apartment List National Rent Report (April)

Grannis: Moderate growth and disinflation still alive and well

Weniger: A massive wage arbitrage has opened between the US and its competitors

USA has switched from large importer of oil & gas to a significant exporter

Carmel: We're not in a 1970s-style oil-inflation spiral

Detrick: S&P 500 broke the trend line from late October. What’s next?

Carmel: We are objectively terrible at forecasting rates

Roche: Why savers are in hog heaven


Connect with our hosts

Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office


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lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com


Disclosure
The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

New CPI data is here, and the economy continues to run hotter than the market was expecting. What does that mean for the Fed cuts we’ve been talking so much about? And are we now in a position to be more accommodative if the market does stall? All of that, plus global parenting trends and our hopes for Tiger at Augusta. 

Key Takeaways

[00:17] - CPI Day + Will they or won’t they make cuts?

[05:20] - The inflationary impacts of insurance costs

[11:24] - Trump’s SPAC & the return of meme/bitcoin

[16:45] - EVs + the future of self-driving

[19:10] - Why the U.S. economy has yet to break

[25:48] - Parenting data + Masters picks


Links

Stocks hit by Fed-pivot rethink as oil climbs

$DJT share price “is back to the level it debuted at on March 26th

US sees missile strike on Israel by Iran, proxies as imminent

The average price of a used Tesla has declined 21 months in a row

Peccatiell: With all the rate hikes, why hasn’t the U.S. economy broken?

Parenting has become far more intensive in most developed countries


Connect with our hosts

Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office


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lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com


Disclosure
The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

We’ll react to Jerome Powell’s post-Quarter 1 comments and look at inflation and the economy related to oil/gas, real estate, and commodities prices. We’ll then look at strong financial numbers coming out of Mexico and prognosticate what a bright future could look like with our Southern neighbors as a main manufacturing partner. We’ll finish by joining the national narrative on Caitlin Clark, LSU, and the rise of women’s hoops. 

Key Takeaways

[00:17] - A big picture view after quarter 1

[06:35] - Inflation risks as the price of commodities increases

[09:51] - The interesting parallel between oil/gas and real estate 

[14:32] - Recovery #s for SBF & Madoff clients 

[15:50] - Mexico unemployment down, peso up

[19:07] - The golden rule of compounding


Links

Timmer: After falling a modest 2.8% in '23, earnings are expected to grow 9% in '24

1st time since Q3 of 2022 that Tesla has delivered under 400,000 units in a quarter

Housel: the % of hedge funds & mutual funds that did worse than investing with Madoff

Bilello: never interrupt compounding unnecessarily

Women’s Final 4 ticket prices are twice that of the men’s 


Connect with our hosts

Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office


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lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com


Disclosure
The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

We’ll start with the flurry of current event news, from the Baltimore Bridge to Trump’s new SPAC. We’ll then look at the FOMO effect of positive markets and discuss how long-term holds can be a time-tested tool to grow your wealth.

Key Takeaways

[00:17] - Trump’s Truth Social SPAC

[03:53] - Baltimore bridge tragedy

[08:00] - Historic data after 5-month wins streaks & the start of bear markets 

[11:23] - Wealth creation through long-term holds

[17:26] - Financial conditions and American energy efficiency are soaring


Links

Trump’s Truth Social starts trading with a market value near $6.8 billion after SPAC deal

Baltimore Key Bridge collapses after ship collision

Cocoa prices hit $10,000 per metric ton for the first time ever

The S&P 500 is about to be up 5 months in a row

Detrick: buying fear is historically a strong idea

Yale School of Mgmt: On the Nature of Long-Term Holds

Scott Grannis: Financial Conditions Look Excellent

Grannis: U.S. energy efficiency has soared


Connect with our hosts

Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office


Subscribe and stay in touch

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lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com


Disclosure
The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.

We’re beginning to sound like a broken record as we record each week coming off more market highs. We’ll discuss how Crypto has roared back after making it through multiple speculative cycles. We’ll also review the positivity that comes with broader market participation. We’ll then examine why you can’t have the debt conversation without also looking at assets and end with the effect of inflation on America’s housing market. 

Key Takeaways

[00:17] - One of history’s longest bull runs continues

[02:53] - Crypto, and conversations about Crypto, are back

[07:48] - The increasing breadth of the S&P 500

[11:03] - Is this the Roaring 20s minus the vibes?

[14:10] - Space launches, AI productivity, and optimism for the future 

[15:55] - Looking at assets along with debt

[22:42] - Inflation’s effect on new real estate coming online


Links

Detrick: Returns mostly driven by earnings over longer periods

Today's Cryptocurrency Prices by Market Cap

All-Star Charts: the broadening of market participation

Carlson: comparing today with the Roaring 20s

Carlson: Households are growing their assets faster than liabilities

Ten Global Trends Every Smart Person Should Know

US Dollar Index


Connect with our hosts

Doug Stokes

Greg Stokes

Stokes Family Office


Subscribe and stay in touch

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

Google Podcasts

lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com


Disclosure
The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.