LATAM Stocks Podcast

Patrick Flood

In-depth conversations with investors, analysts, and business leaders focused on Latin American companies, markets, and investing.

  1. Oct 27

    Brazil After Lula’s Victory: Fiscal Risks, the Real, and What Comes Next

    Brazil’s election result has put fiscal policy, debt sustainability, and the Brazilian real back at the center of investor attention. In this episode of LATAM Stocks, Patrick Flood speaks with Dr. John Welch about the market reaction to Lula’s victory and the broader macroeconomic backdrop facing Brazil. The discussion covers the deterioration in fiscal balances, the risk of a Dilma-style pain trade, the limits of political reform, and the pressure that high interest rates and weakening fiscal credibility can place on economic growth. John also explains one of the episode’s most interesting points: why Brazil’s external balance sheet can actually give the government a capital gain when the BRL weakens. The episode closes with a discussion of fiscal dominance, which sectors may experience economic stress first, misconceptions about Brazil's dependence on commodity prices, and the warning signs investors should monitor in the coming months. Connect with John Welch LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-h-welch-446904126/ Follow LATAM Stocks X / Twitter: https://twitter.com/LatamStocks LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/patrick-flood-cfa-26869140/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCfxab3g3tXj9fd5kyOQ8u4A Substack: https://latamstocks.substack.com/ Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The views expressed are those of the participants.

    Brazil After Lula’s Victory: Fiscal Risks, the Real, and What Comes Next
  2. Oct 26

    Brazilian Stocks, Rede D’Or & Finding Value in Emerging Markets

    In this episode of LATAM Stocks, Mathias Althoff, Co-Head of Emerging & Frontier Markets and Senior Portfolio Manager at Evli, joins Patrick Flood to discuss investment opportunities in emerging and frontier markets, with a particular focus on Brazil. Mathias explains how the fund identifies overlooked companies offering attractive growth prospects, strong business fundamentals, and compelling valuations. The conversation covers portfolio construction, country selection, currency and political risks, and the challenges of investing in markets with limited analyst coverage. The discussion then turns to Brazil, examining how high interest rates, election uncertainty, and a complicated business environment can create opportunities for bottom-up stock pickers. A substantial portion of the conversation focuses on Rede D’Or (RDOR3), one of the fund's larger investments. Mathias discusses its hospital network, SulAmérica insurance business, pricing power, scale advantages, expansion opportunities, and the risks to its long-term investment thesis. The episode concludes with a broader discussion of emerging markets, balance sheet discipline, and the opportunities international investors may be overlooking. Guest Links Mathias Althoff — LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mathiasalthoff/ Evli: https://www.evli.com/en/company/about-us Follow LATAM Stocks X / Twitter: https://twitter.com/LatamStocks YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@LatamStocks LinkedIn — Patrick Flood, CFA: https://www.linkedin.com/in/patrick-flood-cfa-26869140/ Newsletter — LATAM Stocks: https://latamstocks.substack.com/ Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Views expressed by guests are their own. Investors should conduct their own research and due diligence.

    Brazilian Stocks, Rede D’Or & Finding Value in Emerging Markets
  3. Sep 29

    Bradesco: The Next Leg of Brazil’s Banking Cycle | Ilan Arbetman

    What does the next phase of Brazil’s banking cycle look like for Bradesco? In this episode of the LATAM Stocks Podcast, Patrick Flood, CFA speaks with Ilan Arbetman, CFA, Head of Research at Ativa Investimentos, about Brazilian equities and takes a deep dive into Bradesco. They discuss Brazil’s broader equity-market environment, foreign investor flows, the country’s credit and delinquency cycle, and how Bradesco is positioning itself for the next phase of the banking cycle. The conversation also covers Bradesco’s exposure to Brazil’s middle-income consumer, changes in lending standards and credit underwriting, profitability and valuation, opportunities to improve efficiency, and how the bank compares with other major Brazilian financial institutions. Patrick and Ilan also examine Bradesco’s insurance and healthcare businesses, including the importance of insurance to the group’s earnings and the strategic and capital implications of recent changes to the business. Guest: Ilan Arbetman, CFA Head of Research — Ativa Investimentos Ilan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ilan-arbetman/ Ativa Investimentos: https://www.ativainvestimentos.com.br/ Follow LATAM Stocks: X / Twitter: https://x.com/LatamStocks YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@LatamStocks LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/patrick-flood-cfa-26869140 Newsletter: https://latamstocks.substack.com/ Nothing discussed in this podcast should be considered investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

    Bradesco: The Next Leg of Brazil’s Banking Cycle | Ilan Arbetman

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In-depth conversations with investors, analysts, and business leaders focused on Latin American companies, markets, and investing.

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