Iowa Down Ballot

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Professional political analysts discuss Iowa politics with refreshing, in-depth conversations. iowawriterscollaborative.substack.com

  1. 2d ago

    Iowa Down Ballot 10/17/26

    With less than three weeks until Election Day and early voting already underway, we dug into a busy debate week. We started with President Trump’s two planned Iowa visits, Sioux City on October 22nd and again on November 1st, and why the 4th District matters for turnout. We also talked about the risks for Ashley Hinson of sharing a stage with him. Then we broke down the second governor’s debate between Rob Sand and Zach Lane, the Hinson and Josh Turek Senate debate, and the 4th District matchup. We covered the fight over Turek’s missed votes, Hinson’s explanation of her family’s stock holdings, and Turek’s immigration tightrope. We closed with a look at the newly scheduled 3rd District debate between Zach Nunn and Sarah Trone Garriott on October 27th on KCCI, and why late debates may be less risky than they seem. Thanks to you all for helping support us whether it’s subscribing, liking, sharing, it all helps us grow! You can become a paid subscriber by clicking the button above, or make a one-time donation of any amount by clicking the button below. Auto-generated transcript below: Kathie: Hello, and thanks for joining us on the Iowa Down Ballot podcast. I’m Kathie Obradovich, your temporary host again this week while our stalwart leader, Dave Price, is on assignment. Thanks to those of you who reached out after my TB-worthy performance on last week’s show. Rest assured, I’m still alive, if not entirely well, but maybe I can get through this week without hacking up a lung. With me to help are Laura Belin of Bleeding Heartland and longtime political consultant, advisor and man about town, Eric Woolson. Eric: Great to be here. Laura: Good to be here with you. Trump returns to Iowa Kathie: It’s now less than three weeks before Election Day. We’re recording on Friday afternoon, and Iowans are already voting. One development this week is the announcement that President Trump is coming back to Iowa, not once but twice before the election. The first visit is next week, October 22nd, in Sioux City, and then he’ll be back on November 1st. Eric, Sioux City is in the 4th District, which is already red. Why go there? Eric: Obviously, Chris McGowan, the congressional candidate up there, doesn’t need him, but it really helps with turnout. Remember the governor’s race between Kim Reynolds and Fred Hubbell. Hubbell led much of the night until we got to western Iowa, and that’s where the Republicans began to run up the total. Midterms are as much decided by which voters participate as by moving undecideds. Trump has made the point that he’s not on the ballot and his support tends to fall off, so he needs to motivate those voters to turn out. There are an awful lot of them in the 4th District. Kathie: His approval rating is underwater in Iowa, as in other states. Talk about the risk as well as the reward for Republicans, Laura. Laura: If he’s coming at all, it has to be the 4th District. That’s where he can do the most good. The statewide polls show his approval is underwater, but it’s very likely still positive in that district, so I think it can only help Republicans overall. It could be risky for Ashley Hinson to campaign with him, though. If you’re on a statewide ballot and there are lots of places where Trump isn’t popular, she may not want those visuals. And you never know what he’ll say at one of these rallies. He doesn’t stay on script, and she could be standing right there when he says something that makes national news in a negative way. For Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, it’s easier to have an excuse not to go all the way to Sioux City. They’re busy campaigning in their own districts, and I’d say that’s a wise move. Joe Mitchell, I don’t really know. He has campaigned using the Trump name more than some other Republicans, so he might go even though it’s far from the 2nd District. Kathie: Do you think Hinson will be on stage with Trump next week? Laura: I think she will. She hasn’t broken with the president on the Iran war, and she said this week that she’d welcome Trump coming to campaign, so she’s not pushing him away with both hands. She didn’t go to J.D. Vance’s event in Council Bluffs a few weeks ago, but she doesn’t have a good excuse this time. I also think Zach Lane, the candidate for governor, needs to be there. He needs that sky-high turnout in the 4th District, as Eric said. That’s what saved Kim Reynolds in 2018. Governor’s race: second debate Kathie: We have several debates to hash over. First, we want to send our condolences to Rob Sand and his family after the death of his brother-in-law, Walter Lauridsen. That’s a terrible, sad event for any family, and our hearts go out to them. The candidates for governor met in their second debate, this one on KTIV in Sioux City. Laura, did you notice any changes from the first debate, any change in temperature? Laura: Definitely. The moderators helped guide it early by asking a viewer question: are you going to stop with the personal attacks? That got both of them on the record. Eric, what did you see? Eric: I’d like to see every debate start with that question. It was a compelling way to begin and it put the candidates on notice. I’d also extend my condolences to Rob Sand and the family. It underscores something people don’t realize, just how dangerous and demanding campaigning can be. You’re on the road late at night and early in the morning, you’re tired from campaign events, and you’re often out late in areas that aren’t well traveled. Frankly, it’s surprising at times that we don’t see this happen more. Kathie: Do you think the debate moved the needle for Zach Lane? Eric: It’s so hard to tell with debates. You have a small audience. Some air statewide, some don’t, and even when they do, I don’t think the audience is tremendously large. A lot of people tune in just so they can say, my guy won, or my woman won. So I don’t think it moves the needle much. But it’s important for Lane because more voters got to see him beyond the campaign commercials. It’s really an introduction. The same is true for Sand. If you asked people on the street who the state auditor is, I’m not sure what the numbers would be. So this was a debate the voters won, but it was probably a wash in terms of which candidate can claim victory. Laura: Both sides got social media clips they could pull, but there were no game-changing moments and no big gaffes. Lane is the one most in need of something that changes the dynamic, because he’s still trailing in the polls. He didn’t make any mistakes, but I don’t know if he did enough, and Sand didn’t make a mistake that would help him in any significant way. I thought it was a substantive discussion on the state budget: how do you fund your priorities, given that the revenue estimating conference met this morning to talk about where the state budget is headed? There was also a good exchange on how to fund education, given decisions already made about the size of incoming revenues. These debates typically live online afterward, too. This one aired at 9 p.m., which is after my bedtime. Eric: I’m a night owl. I’m just getting started at night. Kathie: It also aired at the same time as another debate, the 4th District one or the Senate one, I lose track. Two debates were broadcast simultaneously this week, so I had to split my time. On education, Rob Sand is proposing a 5% increase in state aid, while Zach Lane is proposing to eliminate property taxes on primary residences. Both will need to explain how they’d pay for those proposals, and perhaps we’ll hear more in the next two weeks. Laura: Interestingly, Sand said he could only promise the 5% increase in the first year, and after that it depends on the state budget. He’s talked about legalizing and taxing marijuana to raise money, but he can’t do that on his own. He’s also talked about restructuring special education, which could be really expensive. Senate race: Hinson vs. Turek Kathie: The second debate I want to talk about is Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek, also their second of the cycle. This race has been close all along, regardless of which poll you believe. Laura, did you see anything that could change its trajectory? Laura: I think both could be pretty happy with how it went. Both made the points they wanted to make, neither made a major mistake, and there was plenty for supporters to get excited about. To me it seemed like a wash. Eric: I concur. Congresswoman Hinson showed her TV background. She’s a former anchor, polished and comfortable on TV, able to keep returning to her points. But Representative Turek did a nice job of holding his own and showed he can compete in that setting. He’s gotten better with each debate. His first debate was a lot better than he was in the primary, and the second was better than the first. Two things stood out on the negative campaigning. First, Hinson, I think for the first time, really explained the difference between the publicly traded stock she says she divested and the private stock her family still owns from the sale of her husband’s business. She finally got into the weeds. I’m no Warren Buffett, but if you hold private stock, I think you could still potentially trade on insider information. It’s still illegal, but you could take advantage of it. I think Turek has gotten some traction with his talking points on that. Laura: MSNOW did a focus group of Trump voters that I saw yesterday. They couldn’t have explained all the details, but they had heard that Hinson owned some stock and her family got wealthier while she was in Congress, and they saw that as a negative. As they say in politics, if you’re explaining, you’re losing. Eric: That’s exactly true, Laura. But if you sell stock in a private company, you’re going to get richer. If my family built a business over 20 years and I sold it during th

    Iowa Down Ballot 10/17/26

  2. Oct 10

    Iowa Down Ballot 10/10/26

    In the governor’s debate, Rob Sand and Zach Lahn shared a stage for the first time. With no time limits, we felt the moderators lost control early, and Lahn ended up talking roughly seven minutes longer. Republicans loved his aggressive style, while Democrats thought the interrupting came across badly. We don’t see a clear winner, and three more debates are still ahead. In the U.S. Senate race, Josh Turek held his own against the more TV-seasoned Ashley Hinson. She kept hitting him on missed votes, and we explained why a missed vote doesn’t always mean a missed day at work. Turek got her on the record about Iran and Medicaid cuts, and her comments about millennials and savings drew plenty of social media reaction. In the 2nd District, Joe Mitchell and Lindsay James had a more orderly second debate. We also talked through the steel plant incentives and whether tariffs are really behind the project. On the horse race, Cook moved the 1st and 3rd Districts from toss-up to lean Democrat, and the 2nd District from lean Republican to toss-up. The polls disagree. Suffolk had Sand up 55 to 43 and Turek up 48 to 44, while Emerson had Sand up just 49 to 45 and Hinson ahead 47 to 45. We caution against trusting any single poll, since each makes different assumptions about who will turn out in a midterm. Dave Price is quite busy with his day jobs. We hope to have him back at some point, but we are committed to continuing informing our listeners, viewers, and readers. Kathie and Laura are two of the best political reporters in the state (if not the country). If you would like to support our work financially please become a paid subscriber by clicking the button above. To make a one-time donation of any size please click the button below. Thanks for listening, and if you can, please like and share. Auto-generated transcript below: Kathie: Hello and welcome to the Iowa Down Ballot podcast. It’s debate season and we have a lot to talk about, with candidates for governor, U.S. Senate, Congress, and more sharing the stage, some for the first time. There’s also new polling in the top races and some shifts in the political forecast for Iowa’s races. I’m Kathie Obradovich, and with me today is Laura Belin. Hi, Laura. Laura: Good to see you, Kathie. Kathie: We’re a smaller crew today. Dave is working on other projects and our conservative friends were otherwise engaged, but we can carry it, right? Laura: Yeah, absolutely. Kathie: I still sort of have the crud. If you heard me last week, you’ll know I’m a lot better, but I’ll apologize right now for any Marco Rubio-esque water swigging or cough drop crunching as we go. And I know you’ve been a little under the weather too, Laura. Laura: I’m feeling a lot better. Kathie: Just the walking wounded here. The governor’s debate: Rob Sand vs. Zach Lahn Kathie: Let’s start with the governor’s debate, which was all the way back on Monday. We’re recording this on Friday. It was in Davenport, hosted by KWQC-TV on the campus of St. Ambrose University. It was the first time on the debate stage for Rob Sand and Zach Lahn. What do you think? Laura: They didn’t have time limits, and honestly I feel like that debate was a case for having them. I didn’t total up the minutes myself, but I saw some analysis that Zach Lahn ended up speaking about seven minutes longer than Rob Sand. That seems pretty out of balance. I felt the moderators lost control of the debate early and never really got it back. Kathie: I’ve done both kinds of debates, timed and super formal, and the untimed kind that’s supposed to be more of a conversation. I agree with you, they probably should have timed the answers for this one. If you’re not going to time the answers, the moderators need to step in really early and make it very clear that they won’t let one candidate talk over another, and that they’ll cut in if you abuse the time. They really didn’t start trying to do that until way too late. It was interesting how Rob Sand responded. You could tell he was kind of annoyed, but he did not reciprocate. You didn’t see him heat up to match Zach Lahn and start talking over him, which not all candidates would do. And I think there was a risk for Lahn in talking over Sand like that. Laura: The Republican comments I saw online said Lahn absolutely dominated the discussion and got in a lot of zingers. On the Democratic side, people felt it came across very badly, all the interrupting and going on for a long time. It was interesting to me that near the end, when the moderator was trying to get things back on track, Zach Lahn said something like, “I can go if it’s four on one, I can take on...” He was almost implying the moderators were on Rob Sand’s side, when I felt they had been kind of lenient toward the Republicans. We’ll see. They have three more debates coming up, and that may be partly why Rob Sand was able to just hang back and wait. I’m curious to see whether the moderators are a little more active in next week’s clash. Kathie: A couple of things about the content. This is the first time we’ve seen these candidates together, so we saw some rehash of the attack ads we’re seeing incessantly on TV. One that stood out for me was Zach Lahn claiming that Sand’s campaign rhetoric about his time in Kansas was an attack on his kids. That’s the claim that he didn’t move to Iowa until two years before he ran for governor, and that he frequently returns to Kansas. Lahn portrayed it as an attack on his kids because he’s going to Kansas to visit his kids in a blended family. I think it’s a stretch to call it an attack on his kids, but I’m not sure where else he was going to go in trying to defend that. Laura: Rob Sand said the reason you’re in Kansas doesn’t matter, what matters is that you’re not in Iowa all the time. Lahn’s campaign has never really explained how this is going to work. He said that’s private, they have a blended family, and they’ll work it out like blended families do. But if his kids are being raised and going to school primarily in another state, it does seem like something he’ll need to contend with. Kathie: Lahn also pressed attacks on Rob Sand’s family wealth. He has repeatedly called Sand a billionaire in his ads. I didn’t think Sand engaged with that very much or tried to rebut it. He talked about family and mansions in other states and spending time there, but I didn’t think he rebutted much. Laura: The main thing he pushed back on was the nitrate fertilizer claim. He said his wife’s third-generation family company doesn’t produce nitrate fertilizer, that they produce other things from byproducts. Kathie: Maybe that was the most important thing, considering water quality is a big concern to voters. At the bottom line, unless there are giant gaps or big things that turn into campaign commercials and rhetoric through the rest of the campaign, I usually don’t see debates moving the needle much. They reinforce what people already think about the candidates. But did you think there was a winner here? Laura: I don’t think so. It depends on whether you care a lot about demeanor. But I think it fired up Zach Lahn’s supporters. In that sense he can feel it was successful, because he showed he was being very aggressive. I don’t know who was watching, or whether swing voters are watching these debates. And it’s different since this is the first of four rather than the only debate they’re having, so I want to reserve judgment until after they’re all over. But the Republicans seemed extremely pleased with the performance. Kathie: It’s a good point about who’s watching. A lot of times the effect of a debate isn’t the night of, it’s the media, and especially the social media, that rolls out afterward. We see that over and over. With this debate I didn’t see anything like that, but time will tell. Laura: What I saw from Rob Sand and other Democratic accounts was that they were sharing clips of things Sand said. They weren’t sharing anything Lahn said as a gaffe, but more like Sand’s line that you’re not going to be a stronger advocate for public schools than the guy who lives here and sends his kids to public schools. U.S. Senate debate: Ashley Hinson vs. Josh Turek Kathie: Exactly. This week was also the first time sharing the stage for Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek. That debate was on Iowa Press, so no time limits, but they weren’t at a table, and I thought it was a lot more orderly than the governor’s debate. What were your first impressions? Laura: I thought Turek really held his own. With Hinson having so much more experience on television, as a TV reporter and anchor and then in public life for a long time, I felt this format would really favor her. It struck me as kind of a draw. Turek looked more comfortable than he did in the primary debates against Zach Wahls. Kathie: For sure. He was a lot better than in the primary debates, and more prepared for the attacks he was expecting. Hinson was absolutely polished and on message. She continued to skewer Turek on his missed votes, and I thought mostly successfully. Turek did try to make the case that the work he did behind the scenes at the Capitol was significant, that he worked across the aisle and had an impact on legislation. But he still hasn’t scratched the fallacy the Hinson campaign is perpetuating with this line of criticism, that every vote missed somehow represents a missed day on the Hill. She’s talking about him wasting his per diem, taking money out of taxpayers’ pockets. The reality is that multiple votes happen on a single day, and you can be at the Hill without taking a vote except maybe for adjournment. So every missed vote does not represent a missed day in the Capitol. Maybe Turek doesn’t want to go too far down the road of defending that, but it seems to me he could at least correct that misconception. Laura: So

    Iowa Down Ballot 10/10/26

  3. Oct 4

    Iowa Down Ballot with Dave Price 10/4/26

    This week we recorded on Saturday, a day late, to cover Friday’s special legislative session on the proposed $15 billion steel plant in Lee County. Lawmakers approved roughly $1.5 billion in incentives, about 10% of the project’s estimated cost and the largest commitment Iowa taxpayers have ever made. Here’s what we dug into: * A done deal that wasn’t. Monday’s Oval Office announcement was billed as finished, with talk of no state incentives needed. We heard from Economic Development Authority director Debi Durham that the contract, utility work, and board approval are all still ahead. There’s also been no land purchase yet. * The Senate was the hard part. Republican Senator Dan Dawson, who chairs Ways and Means, voted against the bill and used his floor speech to question the rushed process and the governor’s negotiating. The bill still passed 28 to 19, and we talked about how those cushion votes get lined up. * Democrats were split. About half of House Democrats voted yes, with labor ties and union jobs pulling some members toward support, and we wondered whether the party made the most of the moment. * Politics over policy? We floated the theory that the rush was driven by the election calendar, and whether a presidential visit might follow. We also talked about the 4th District debate in Sioux City, where Chris McGowan walked a careful line on tariffs and Dave Dawson kept pressing on the war in Iran. We closed with the news that the 3rd District debate between Zach Nunn and Sarah Trone Garriott appears to be dead, and why TV debates are getting harder to schedule. If you are a free subscriber and are able to become a paid subscriber to help us cover costs of production you can click the link above. To make a one-time donation please click the link below. Any donation is welcome and we appreciate all of you that do. Thanks for listening we’ll see ya next week! Auto-generated transcript below: Dave Price: Hi, everyone. Welcome back to the Iowa Down Ballot podcast coming to you on Saturday. Usually we record on Friday. This week we have to go on Saturday because of that special legislative session that took place Friday. So much to talk about. From that, I want to bring in our panel this week. Eric Woolson, longtime journalist, longtime Republican strategist, catnip farmer. Welcome. Eric Woolson: Great to be here as always. This is sunset on Lucky Badger Farms, but it looks like sunrise. Dave Price: Yes. For those of you watching on video, you can see Eric’s incredible background. And then the two true stars of this week’s conversation who are rallying. Bad hamstrings. Shoulder cramps, whatever it is, they are out here. They’re both fighting through some stuff this week. Laura Belin and Kathy Obradovich, thank you both for powering through. We’ll see if your voices hold out. Laura Belin: It’s good to be here. Dave Price: In game time, the whistle goes and these two are right there. And Kathy, for those of you watching on video, proudly showing off her Iowa State shirt. Kathie Obradovich: Where are you, Ed Taylor, when I’m wearing my cyclone outfit? Laura Belin: Exactly. Dave Price: All right, everybody. So let’s turn back the clock, shall we? On Monday, there’s this press conference in the Oval Office with President Donald Trump, some of his administration. Attorney General Brennenburg, still not sure why she was there. She was right on his left side, I think. Standing there about this huge economic development deal, we had Ashley Hinson, we had Governor Reynolds, we had Senator Ernst, I think that’s all the Iowa folks, right? Marianne Miller-Meeks, sorry, Congresswoman, she was there as well. All right, so there… for the first time, releasing some of the details of this proposed $15 billion steel plant that would go somewhere in Lee County. We still actually don’t know exactly where this would be. So they lay this thing out. This would be the biggest, potentially, in our country, one of the biggest in the world. 6,000 construction jobs, 1,750 or so permanent jobs. In this location, and it partners, essentially, with the Esser Group. This would be the big company here. They have a Minnesota operation, so they have the iron ore there. Mine it there, bring it down through rail down to Lee County. You make the steel, and then you send it on down the Mississippi River, or so. Alright, so that comes out on Monday. On Friday, Governor Reynolds had called everybody back for this special legislative session. There are so many developments, it’s difficult to know where to start with this. How about we jump ball this at the beginning about the thing that stood out to you most about how this week… and for those of you who haven’t followed what happened this weekend, the legislature, to no surprise. Past incentives on this, it’s about a billion and a half. Which is roughly 10% of the… of the estimated price of this project. So the biggest commitment by the state of Iowa taxpayers that they have ever made before, there was a lot of ins and outs and drama and… meetings and all kinds of stuff that we’re going to get through this week, but Laura, the headline… what’s, like, the thing that stands out from you? Because there’s so much to dig into this, I couldn’t actually wait until we all assembled to talk about this, but what sticks out to you most about what happened? Laura Belin: The biggest thing for me yesterday is we had this role reversal for the last maybe five, six years. The Iowa Senate Republicans are usually lockstep in with the governor. And if she has trouble getting anything through the legislature, her problem is with the House Republicans. And yesterday, it was the Senate Republicans who almost… I mean, they had to make changes at the last minute to the Ways and Means Committee members to even get this bill through the committee. You had the Ways and Means chair vote against it in committee, speak against it on the floor, and so they barely had the votes to get this through the Iowa Senate. I did not expect that. Dave Price: Okay, I’m not trying to make fun of you, but speak against it on the Senate floor is not nearly a strong enough way to describe what happened. But let’s put a pin in that part. We’ll get to, we’ll come back to that. Don’t let me forget. Kathie, what, like, what’s the thing that stuck out more to most of you about what we just went through? Kathie Obradovich: What else is we? Yeah, I mean, what Laura said, for sure. But, earlier in the day, I mean, we’re going into the special session, after the… at this presidential news conference, it was called a done deal. No local, my gosh, I’m sounding really bad, sorry. No local or state incentives required. And so, it’s like, what are we talking about? Why are we doing… and it was Howard Lutnick, the Commerce Secretary, who said that. So what are we doing here? You know, why are we, you know, apparently throwing these… massive incentives at a deal that’s already done. And, Debbie Durham was questioned about that during the Ways and Means subcommittee meeting. And she basically said, yeah, I don’t know what he was talking about, it’s not a done deal. Even after the legislative session goes, there’s gonna be more process. The Economic Development Board has to do a contract. There’s gotta be, you know, even more process here with all of the utilities, all of that kind of stuff. So, far from being a done deal. And it did turn out to be, you know, they were portraying Iowa as still being in competition with Arkansas, which is one of the balloons that Dan Dawson poked on the Senate floor. I’m going to keep my remarks even shorter than this in the future. Sorry about this. I thought I sounded… Dave Price: Oh, not at all. Thanks for trying to power through here. Eric, what stood out to you about the way this week played out? Eric Woolson: You know, I’m gonna come at it from the perspective I think you guys have me on for anyway, which is a historical perspective, and in that sense, I’m gonna put on my former reporter hat rather than my consultant hat. And that is that deals like this don’t come together in a week. This, the whole thing seems so, so odd to me, and I think back years ago when Iowa was in competition for a Saturn plant, the Saturn carmaker. I don’t even know if they make Saturns anymore. Dave Price: I don’t believe they do. I had one back in the day. Eric Woolson: But, but the fact was when, when somebody wants something, when there’s competition for it, and I mean all of the states, Tennessee, Alabama, Iowa, Illinois, all these states were going after this Saturn plant, and now out of the sky like manna falls this massive steel plant that, as, as Kathie noted, it was either us or Arkansas, and I, I think Senator Dawson had… he had a terrific point about, you know, questioning why this thing was coming together so quickly, and what the rush was, but, you know, another thing I would always say as a business owner myself, I can tell you that every forward projection of revenues is, is overly optimistic. Dave Price: Yeah. Eric Woolson: And, and so I know we have this, the, the governor’s office was saying this is a set up where, you know, they’re not going to get the incentives until they actually comes forward with, with, finish the work. But, I’m just telling you that, I think there are a lot of reasons to look at this deal and say, why so fast? And is it going to live up to expectations? Dave Price: I think just hearing Eric, for… if we have anybody listening or watching, and you don’t really know a lot about Eric’s background, the reason it’s easier for us as journalists to work with Eric in the past, regardless of whether it’s his clients with the firm or on the political side is because he was a reporter. So you understand what we’re thinking. Now, of course, that could mean that you know how to outsmart u

    Iowa Down Ballot with Dave Price 10/4/26

  4. Sep 26

    Iowa Down Ballot with Dave Price 9/26/26

    We dug into the sudden Republican pivots happening six weeks out from the election. Ashley Hinson, Zach Nunn, and Mariannette Miller-Meeks are all pushing back on the war and rising fuel costs after months of standing firmly with the president, including Nunn, who was on stage with Secretary Hegseth at the Iowa State Fair just a month ago. We talked about whether this is a real break or just safe talk now that the House is out of session until after the election. We also covered Nunn’s Beef Act co-sponsorship pushing back on the administration’s cheaper beef imports, and debated how much weight these largely symbolic moves should really carry in our reporting. On the campaign trail: we don’t expect Trump to visit Iowa before November, though nobody’s ruling it out completely. We flagged Wednesday’s Sioux City debate between Chris McGowan and Dave Dawson in the 4th District, and noted debates are still uncertain in the 1st and 3rd. Finally, we broke down Judge Scott Beattie’s 60-plus-page ruling dismissing Trump’s lawsuit against Ann Selzer. First Amendment protections and a lack of any actual damages both did the case in. We expect an appeal, but we’re skeptical it goes anywhere. Like, share, and subscribe! A huge thanks to our new paid supporters for helping keep this going. We’re just a little over a month away from election day, and we can’t wait to keep you updated as we get closer and closer. If you’d like to become a paid subscriber, please click the button above. You can make a one-time donation by clicking the button below. See ya next week. Auto-generated transcript below: Dave Price: Welcome back, everybody, to the Iowa Down Ballot podcast. I’m Dave Price. We have some new polls out — do we have some Republican pivots in position? Is there a strategy, a “strategery” happening in the final six weeks of this campaign with some Republicans in really competitive races? That’s one of the things we’re going to be talking about this week. With us this week is Republican contributor Ed Failor Jr. Hello, Ed. Ed: Hello. Dave Price: Proudly — for those of you watching on video — wearing his Iowa Hawkeye merch. I’m pretty sure he’s an influencer for them and getting paid under the table. But for those listening and not watching, you’re really missing out, because Kathie Obradovich will not allow Ed to take over with complete Hawkeye fervor, so she’s brought a prop this week since she neglected to bring one last week — Herky has shown up. Kathie Obradovich: What? No, no, wrong team, sorry. Dave Price: Sorry — size? Kathie Obradovich: That’s a turkey. Dave Price: Sigh, sigh, sigh, sigh. Sorry — proud alum, I’m sorry. And Laura Belin, playing Switzerland, staying neutral — hello to you as well. Alright, Ed — well, I’ve offended Kathie because I mixed up my mascot, sorry about that. So I’m curious for you, since we talk about strategery — you’re familiar with the public polls, and some of the campaigns are getting internal polls back. It does seem like we’ve been seeing a shift, with some of our Republican members of Congress on the ballot this November, to push back a bit on some of what’s going on with their party leadership, including the president in D.C. Is that fair? Ed: Yes, but clearly it’s not on everything — they’re not just pushing away from the president, they’re pushing back on this one topic, right? So they’re obviously seeing information — I’ve seen information too — that the war itself, and the effects of it... or “police action,” whatever we call it now, I don’t know... Dave Price: Depends on the day — the president’s called it many different things. War, conflict, whatever. Ed: Right, right. But anyway, they’re obviously seeing that, and quite honestly, in my view, I think they’re making a solid call. Just interesting how it progresses and when it happens — but yeah, they’re clearly seeing polling data saying, “wow, we’ve got to be for ending this thing.” So good for them for taking a stand, I guess, but that’s what they’re clearly seeing. Dave Price: Kathie, you’ve written a couple hundred thousand gazillion stories in your career — you saw Ashley Hinson’s move this week. She’s voted against the War Powers Resolution seven times in the past — unlike Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who supported it this time before the Senate killed it Thursday. Hinson voted against it the whole time, but early this week said the war’s got to be over, Iowans shouldn’t be paying higher prices because of it. So how do you pick your words as you’re looking at your reporters’ stories on things like this? You don’t want to overplay it — it’s not like Hinson’s bailing on Trump — but is it nuanced, is it a pivot? How do you choose how to describe what’s happening? Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, speaking out against the war is a lot easier than voting against it. Zach Nunn and Miller-Meeks took a pretty obvious step away from the president by actually taking that vote. Hinson — it’s safe talk, since the House is now gone until after the election. There won’t be any more votes, so she can say what she wants without having to put a vote down on it. But still, for her — someone who’s been four-square behind Trump — to say “no, this is wrong, it’s gone on too long,” that shouldn’t be discounted. I think it’s a sign that candidates facing competitive elections are seeing how unpopular this war is getting. We’ve got diesel prices at record highs just as harvest is starting, so it shouldn’t be underplayed how much this hurts farmers right now. I think she had to say something, but I’d have respected it more if she’d actually voted for the War Powers Act. Dave Price: Laura, what do you think? How have you followed what they’ve all been saying and doing this past week? Laura Belin: I think it’s very performative. The Senate just had a vote yesterday that went 50–49 — literally, Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst were each the decisive vote. I didn’t hear Ashley Hinson, Zach Nunn, or Mariannette Miller-Meeks say they think Iowa’s senators should hold out and not vote to continue this war unless we get concessions. Chuck Grassley is out there posting on X that we should have a diesel export embargo to help farmers, but if he was talking to the White House about getting something in exchange for his vote against the war powers resolution, I didn’t hear anything about it. Dave Price: And I should mention, Nunn also co-sponsored, with a member of Congress from New Mexico, the Beef Act — going back to the president’s decision to bring in lower-quality, cheaper beef filler from Argentina and Brazil to get more cheap meat into the market. Early reporting says this will have minimal impact on price, but it does provide another option for consumers. Ed, are they just selectively picking their spots here — is this more performative, in that none of it’s really going to matter? Ed: Well, Laura’s right, and Kathie’s right — until you’re laying down votes and we see a bill on the president’s desk... part of politics and the legislative process is performative as you go through it. Until there are votes on the board and bills moving, it can’t really be described as much else, I suppose. But I believe, clearly, that Miller-Meeks and Nunn at least took a vote. Laura Belin: I’m not a believer in doing stories about so-and-so introducing a bill that has very little chance of going anywhere — especially this one, when the House isn’t even back in session until after the election. My editorial policy is I will very rarely, if ever, write a story about someone announcing they co-sponsored a bill unless it’s actually going somewhere. Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, I think with this one, though, it was reinforcing that Nunn is trying to distance himself from the president at a time when he’s facing a rough election. This is directly calling out Trump’s order on beef imports — going directly against a Trump order. Even though the bill has no chance of passing, certainly not before the election, it does make a statement about where Nunn is trying to position himself ahead of this election. I generally agree that it’s useful to know what bills lawmakers are introducing, because they’re making a statement even if the bills have no chance of passing — but the context matters, and people should know the House is gone, so this bill is going to fall into a hole, at least until after the election. Dave Price: What’s interesting to me with Nunn is that in August we covered his event at the Iowa State Fair featuring the Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth — a very unusual situation, having a defense secretary do a campaign event, after postponing it earlier in the year supposedly because we were at war (and we’re still at war). Hegseth said at the start of that event he was there as Pete Hegseth, not as the secretary. But the difference between Nunn standing with him in August and then, a month later, pushing back on both the beef imports and the fuel costs and the war powers vote — that’s perhaps the biggest shift of the bunch, right? Kathie Obradovich: I’d say yeah — less than a month after standing next to the Secretary of Defense, as we still call him, not Secretary of War. The photo my D.C. bureau used with that story about the flipped vote was Hegseth and Nunn standing there in matching aviator sunglasses, acting like they were practically brothers. So it is a bigger shift. Both Nunn and Miller-Meeks are military veterans, and they made kind of nuanced arguments about why now and not earlier — which was interesting. I don’t know that it reads as anything but “this is an unpopular war and they’re facing a tough re-election.” Miller-Meeks talked about not being able to get behind a forever war without an end game in sight

    Iowa Down Ballot with Dave Price 9/26/26

  5. Sep 19

    Iowa Down Ballot with Dave Price 9/19/26

    Chuck Grassley turns 93, soon becoming the second longest-serving senator in U.S. history — though Eric argues the milestone doesn’t sidestep the harder question of age and capacity. Laura notes he still won’t rule out running again in 2028, when he’d be 95. The panel also digs into November’s ballot amendment requiring a supermajority to raise income and corporate taxes. Kathie lays out the opposition’s case: it won’t stop tax hikes, just push lawmakers toward more regressive options like a sales tax hike. Laura shares her repeated, unsuccessful attempts to pin down Rob Sand’s position, despite his own warnings about a looming state budget shortfall. Candidate visibility comes up too — Rob Sand’s near-daily public events versus Zach Lahn’s more private appearances, and Ashley Hinson skipping JD Vance’s Council Bluffs stop this week. Iowa’s 2nd District also gets a look back, as Laura’s early call that it would be a genuine toss-up, given the district’s dramatic Obama-to-Trump swing, has now been borne out. The episode wraps with congratulations to Iowa Capital Dispatch’s Clark Kauffman, whose reporting on nursing home abuse and neglect earned the outlet its first-ever Media Impact Award from the Iowa Developmental Disabilities Council. This weekly podcast continues to grow. In downloads, views, followers, subscriptions, you name it. As we get closer to the November election we’ll have news and info that you won’t find anywhere else (like normal.) If you’d like to become a paid subscriber to help cover costs of production please click the button above. You can also make a one-time donation using the button below. Thanks to all of you that have already contributed. This isn’t possible without you! Auto-generated transcript below: Dave Price: Hello, everybody. Welcome back to the Iowa Down Ballot podcast. I am Dave Price. This week, grab your you-know-what — Chuck Grassley celebrates another birthday. The crystal ball makes another move, and it involves another Iowa congressional district. Plus, we’re going to talk about that constitutional amendment, which could make it more difficult to raise taxes in the future. With us this week, Kathie Obradovich — I was there when she received yet another award, we’ll talk about that this week — and Laura Belin. Laura Belin: Good morning. Dave Price: And back by popular demand, longtime Republican strategist, former journalist, former Democratic strategist, Eric Woolson. Hello, sir. Eric Woolson: Great to be back. Dave Price: Back from his world travels as well. He will have a Netflix documentary on his world travels coming up — if it’s not, it should be. For those of you watching on video, Eric, can you tell us what’s in the visual behind you? Eric Woolson: I didn’t like the blurred background last week, so that’s an aerial of my farm down in Wayne County. Dave Price: And on that farm you grow? Eric Woolson: Catnip. Dave Price: Catnip, of course you do. Eric Woolson: My tenant’s a traditional farmer, so he grows corn and soybeans — we’re not that far off. Dave Price: Alright, now how’d you get into catnip? Eric Woolson: My son and I wanted a cat, and my wife wouldn’t let us have one, so we said, well, we’re going to be growing catnip on the farm, and we need an official spokescat. In 20 years, I don’t think that cat has ever sold any catnip, but — Dave Price: That ploy worked. Eric Woolson: He really is the most interesting man alive, is he not? Kathie Obradovich: He is, and my cat approves, by the way. Eric Woolson: Excellent — we’ll be looking for those campaign ads! Kathie Obradovich: Outstanding. Dave Price: Alright, so grab your you-know-what, as Chuck Grassley — the Dairy Queen aficionado — would say. Eric, you wrote a book about the senator back in the day. He is 93 years old. I’m guessing you’re not surprised he’s lived to see 93? Eric Woolson: That’s what clean living does for you. I was looking up some numbers last night — sixth longest-serving senator, but third oldest. Obviously Strom Thurmond, at 99, has the record, but Theodore Green, a Rhode Island Democrat, was 93 when he retired, so Grassley will become the second longest-serving senator on December 20th. I think you can hold two truths about Grassley at once — his longevity and public service are extraordinary, but at the same time, we’re entitled to a serious conversation about age and capacity and the transfer of political power. Those aren’t mutually exclusive. It’s not really “is 93 too old, or 90, or 85, or 80” — it’s whether this individual is demonstrably capable of performing every important task of the job. That’s the conversation that should always be there. Dave Price: Laura, didn’t you ask Rob Sand at a news conference about his idea for age limits? Laura Belin: I don’t know if I asked him specifically about that. He’s talked about age limits but hasn’t said exactly what age is too old — he says he’d be open to different ideas. It’s interesting — you may have seen a reporter ask Senator Grassley recently, similar to what he was asked about a year or so ago. He’s not ruling out running for another term in 2028, when he’d be 95. I think he will retire in 2028, but it’s interesting that he won’t just say that. To me it seems pretty clear that at 95, you shouldn’t be running for another six-year term. Dave Price: Kathie, you were like 11 when you started covering Chuck Grassley, right? Kathie Obradovich: Yes, let’s go with that. A couple things — one, I hope Senator Grassley has a freezer in his office, because judging from social media, the amount of Dairy Queen treats coming his way on his birthday... if he had to actually sit down and eat all of that, even with help from staff — and I hope he hasn’t become lactose intolerant in his old age, because even one Dairy Queen blizzard would cause havoc for me, I can tell you. Laura Belin: My neighborhood Dairy Queen, in Windsor Heights, is actually the one that inspired the viral tweet. Kathie Obradovich: I do love a blizzard. Second thing — the Board of Regents this week gave UNI official permission to open essentially the Chuck and Barbara Grassley Center, where the senator’s papers will be donated. They approved it on his birthday, which was nice. Interestingly, they’re withholding the naming of the center until he leaves office. I don’t know if any of you remember, but that became an issue with the Regents when Tom Harkin was originally going to put his center at Iowa State — some Regents voted against naming it after a sitting senator, since he could be raising money for the center while still in office, and they thought that was an ethics issue. So it’s interesting they’re withholding the Grassley Center’s naming until he retires. Harkin did eventually pull out of Iowa State, but that was over an ag-research dispute, unrelated to the naming — just a bit of history I thought was interesting. Dave Price: On the totally non-political side, I was also thinking — how cool is it that Barbara is also with us. She’s slightly younger, I think, right, Eric? Eric Woolson: I think so — actually, I think she might be even slightly older. She had a previous marriage and a son from it when she met Grassley. But they’ve been together since the early ‘50s — going on over 70 years now. Dave Price: And I believe they still go to the same restaurant they went to when they were dating. Eric Woolson: Creatures of habit. Dave Price: Which is cool in its own right, that the place still exists. Let’s talk about an event we’ve teed up a few times on the show and never quite gotten to. This past week, the Republican Party of Iowa held an event — billed largely as another “Josh Turek is too liberal” event — but they also talked about the constitutional amendment going before voters in November, which would make it harder for the legislature to raise taxes. It reminds me of the old “when you have the majority, be bold, kick down the door” mentality. Republicans are pushing this through even amid some uncertainty about where they’ll stand with voters after November — getting it locked in now, just in case. Laura Belin: Only income and corporate taxes, though, Dave — not all taxes. Dave Price: Good point. Eric Woolson: Exactly. Dave Price: There hasn’t been a ton of coverage of this, so I have a feeling it’ll sneak up on some voters when they see it on the ballot. Eric Woolson: Yeah, a lot of people forget to turn the ballot over — I suspect it’s on the back. It hasn’t gotten much coverage, and speaking as an average voter, I don’t know that much about it myself. One thing I found interesting: the House vote to put the amendment up was 57 Republicans, no Democrats — it didn’t reach the two-thirds threshold you’d actually need to raise taxes under the new rule. That’s one of the hurdles right there. I can see the appeal — “we need a supermajority to raise taxes” sounds great on its face — but from a policy standpoint, having worked for the governor, I’d say there are just too many flaws in this one. Kathie Obradovich: It does tie your hands. And as Laura mentioned, this only constrains votes on personal and corporate income taxes. There’s now organized opposition, and there’s also a campaign by Iowans for Tax Relief in favor — so we have organized campaigns on both sides now, which should raise awareness, especially with more media coverage of events like this week’s. Opponents argue this won’t actually stop tax increases — it’ll just push lawmakers toward other revenue sources, most likely the sales tax. And our tax system has already become more regressive: the legislature flattened income tax rates to 3.8% flat, so everyone pays the same rate regardless of income — a less progressive system than before. Iowans for Tax Relief will

    Iowa Down Ballot with Dave Price 9/19/26

  6. Sep 12

    Iowa Down Ballot with Dave Price 9/12/24

    This week, we paused to remember September 11th, 25 years later. Kathie, Laura, and Ed each shared where they were that day. Kathie watched the towers fall live on TV, Laura was in London and saw the shock ripple through Britain (which lost 67 citizens that day), and Ed watched fighter jets and Air Force One crisscross an eerily empty sky over Iowa. It’s a reminder of how much the world shifted that morning, and how differently a new generation experiences that history. On the political side, we dug into the GOP’s midterm convention in Dallas and Trump’s surprise pitch to send every American adult $5,000. Ed broke down why he sees it as inflationary deficit spending rather than a “revenue hit,” and Laura pointed out this is just the latest in a string of promised dividends (DOGE checks, tariff dividends) that haven’t materialized. Ashley Hinson, for her part, stayed carefully noncommittal when asked about it back home in Iowa. We also talked Cy-Hawk weekend politics. Tailgate stops are now basically mandatory campaign stops, from Zach Wahls to Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ star-studded tailgate. We closed with Martin O’Malley’s visit to stump for Social Security solvency alongside Josh Turek, plus the news that Iowa’s caucuses are now officially locked in as first-in-the-nation for 2028. Thanks for listening as always. If you would like to become a paid subscriber to help cover the costs of production please click the ‘Subscribe now’ button above. If you’d could spare a few dollars for a one-time donation please click the button below. We appreciate you! Auto-generated transcript below: Dave Price: Hi everyone, and welcome back to the Iowa Down Ballot podcast. If you’re watching the video version of this, you can tell it’s a Cy-Hawk weekend — one of our contributors this week wants you to know what he’s proudly wearing. We’ll get to him in a moment. We also have a somber remembrance this week: 25 years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. We’ll talk about that a little. A former presidential candidate came to Iowa — that seems to happen every week now — in this case it was Martin O’Malley, talking about Social Security. We’ll talk about whether we agree that Social Security will be a big issue for voters this November. Plus, President Trump wants to give you $5,000 — but there’s a big catch. We’ll cover that and more. Let’s bring on our panelists. Mr. Iowa Hawkeye, demonstrating his pride — Ed Failor Jr., longtime Republican advisor and staffer. Hello, sir. Ed Failor: Hello, how are you today? Dave Price: We’re good. Laura Belin, our regular. Kathie Obradovich, our regular — not that you’re “regular,” you know what I mean. Kathie Obradovich: Well, I have to say, I wasn’t prepared for the rivalry. Dave Price: Oh. Kathie Obradovich: Because I am, I think, the only Cyclone on the panel here. But Ed, hat tip to you. Laura Belin: I’m neutral — I’m Switzerland on the Iowa/Iowa State game, because I’m a Michigan fan. Dave Price: We pledge civility on this show, but Cy-Hawk may bring some other emotion out this week. We’ll see how Ed and Kathie coexist. Ed Failor: I’m an elephant. Kathie Obradovich: Cyclone. Ed Failor: I’m always nice to the younger sibling who just can’t get by. Dave Price: And for those watching the video version — Ed’s on the mend here. You good? You’ve got a big bandage on your forehead. Ed Failor: Yeah, just a little skin issue — sun damage and all that. Had a small thing taken care of yesterday, and I’ve got to leave this on for a day and a half or two days. So yeah, I’m golden. Dave Price: All good, good to hear. Remembering September 11th Dave Price: I thought this week we should address — we’re recording on September 11th. I know this drops on the weekend, but there were a lot of moments throughout Friday looking back 25 years. It’s one of those things where you realize your age a bit — neither of my kids was alive when the 9/11 attacks happened. I have a coworker in television who’s only 24, and when we were talking about story ideas for 9/11, I figured she wouldn’t know much about it firsthand. Kathie, do you remember what was happening in your life on September 11, 2001? Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, I was still working for the Lee Enterprises papers. I remember the day vividly — I was getting ready for work with the TV on, half-watching while I got dressed, and when I turned it on, the first tower had already been hit. So then I’m glued to the TV, assuming at that point it was a terrible accident. I was still watching when the second plane hit the tower. Honestly, it makes me tear up right now — I literally burst into tears when I saw it. The weeks afterward were just a blur. We were wondering whether the state capitol would be a target — Tom Vilsack was governor at the time — and there was a lot of discussion about Homeland Security and what could be at risk in Iowa: the water supply, the food supply. There was a lot of talk about securing Iowa’s food supply because of the sudden insecurity everyone felt. But yeah, I’ll never forget that morning, watching that plane hit the second tower. Dave Price: I had a similar experience. I slept in that day and missed the first one — a friend called me, I flipped on the TV, and then saw the second one. Laura, what do you remember of that day? Laura Belin: I was in graduate school, living in London, so my morning was completely normal. I watched the BBC noontime news and nothing was happening yet — the first plane hit a little before 2 p.m. in Britain. Somebody called me, and I turned on the TV a little after 2. A lot of people don’t realize the 9/11 attacks were the deadliest terror attack in British history — at least 67 UK citizens were killed, mostly in the World Trade Center: some on the observation deck, some working at Cantor Fitzgerald, some passengers on the planes. No IRA attack in the UK ever killed nearly as many people. It was a massive story — for weeks afterward, if people heard my American accent, they’d say, “We’re so sorry for what happened to your country.” British media coverage focused a lot on the British victims too, but it was an unbelievable, devastating experience — people in Europe really felt the scale of the calamity. Dave Price: Ed, where were you back then? Ed Failor: I was at Iowans for Tax Relief in Muscatine when it happened. What stands out to me — the actual events were awful, obviously — but I remember going out into the yard just to catch my breath and look around. There was no air traffic. It was eerie. Then I saw jets, probably F-16s, come screaming west to east. I’m an Air Force veteran, I worked in ops, so I thought, “The president’s probably in the air right now.” Then they came screaming back. And then, at a much slower pace, another big plane came through — that had to be Air Force One, making its way from Omaha back to DC. I remember thinking: the only things in the sky right now are our president and some fighter jets. That felt almost as profound, in some ways, as the tragedy itself — like, wow, the world’s changed forever. Nothing’s going to be the same. That’s what I remember feeling, watching those planes go back and forth. Dave Price: I remember our television newsroom — everybody scrambling, rushing in without even being called, but not really knowing what to do. Like Kathie said — is the state capitol safe? The airport had shut down, so we had crews out there talking to grounded, confused passengers walking off planes. As a reporter, you’re processing what’s happening as an American, while also trying to figure out what the story should even be. The technology was so different back then — today it’d all be social media and digital, but this was the early days of that. We interviewed all kinds of people and shot stories that never aired, because the networks were on 24/7 for days and there wasn’t room. Local TV was kind of stuck, still transitioned to the old world, rushing from place to place trying to figure out what to do — but feeling kind of useless. Laura Belin: The BBC also preempted all other coverage — wall to wall, that day and the next. Dave Price: Yeah, it was... Kathie Obradovich: There were 13 people with Iowa ties killed that day, either at the towers or on United Flight 93, which people remember crash-landed in Pennsylvania after passengers realized they were being hijacked and brought the plane down. And here’s how small a world it is — two of the people who passed away that day had siblings still in Iowa whom I personally know. I grew up with one family in Ames, the Haviland family — one of the younger brothers of the man who passed away was a classmate of mine. It tells you what a small community Iowa really is. Laura Belin: It really changed a lot of people’s lives. I remember soapbox speeches — Lindsey James said she decided to become a chaplain after 9/11 because she knew someone on Flight 93. And Nicholas Gluba, the Libertarian who ran for governor, decided to join the Marines after 9/11. A lot of people made huge, life-changing decisions because of what happened. Kathie Obradovich: One of our current statehouse newsroom editors, Tim Lambert — he’s now editor of the Pennsylvania Capital-Star — Flight 93 actually crash-landed on family land of his in Pennsylvania. It sounded like the crash field spread over a multiple-mile area. We picked up an interesting story from Stateline where he talked about that experience. It’s still, I think, reverberating today in how it touched people all over. Dave Price: For sure. RNC Midterm Convention & the $5,000 Idea Dave Price: Far different subject — this week in Dallas, the Republican National Committee held a midterm convention. We’re used to seeing these every four years in presidential cycles, but this was a mid-cycle one. We’ve had a lot of

    Iowa Down Ballot with Dave Price 9/12/24

  7. Sep 5

    Iowa Down Ballot with Dave Price 9/5/26

    This week we dug into two big stories. First, the Des Moines Register’s new reporting on Derek Wulf’s farm finances: an active criminal investigation, a court-appointed receiver, and creditors who settled for less than they were owed. We talked about what real campaign due diligence looks like, and why this story hasn’t gotten the attention it probably deserves. We also broke down a new Emerson College poll. Rob Sand leads Zach Lahn by 3 points in the governor’s race, with independents breaking hard his way. In the Senate race, Ashley Hinson leads Josh Turek 50-45, and we tried to make sense of Turek’s ad touting cooperation with Trump on immigration. Plus, we’re pleased to welcome first-time guest Eric Woolson who has an extensive background in journalism and campaigns, closed things out with the Chuck Grassley vacuum cleaner bobblehead saga, and pondered whether Grassley might run again in 2028 at age 95. Want to sharpen your writing and get the inside scoop on Iowa politics at the same time? Join us September 27-30 at the Okoboji Writers’ & Songwriters’ Retreat on beautiful West Lake Okoboji, featuring Iowa Down Ballot analysts Laura Belin and Kathie Obradovich. They’ll walk you through finding public information, getting your opinion pieces published, and plenty more. Spots are limited, so scan the QR code at the beginning and end of the video or head to okobojiwritersretreat.com to sign up. If you’d like to make a donation to help the Iowa Writer’s Collaborative which supports this show please click the button below. Thanks! Auto-generated transcript below: Dave Price: Hi everyone, and welcome back to the Iowa Down Ballot podcast. We have another new statewide poll, and it shows that, at least for some people, split-ticket voting is still a thing. We’ll talk about that. Plus, there’s new reporting on Republican lieutenant governor candidate Derek Wulf and his farm operations, legal situation, and finances. The Des Moines Register had a story out Friday that we want to discuss. I’m Dave Price. This week we’re joined by Iowa Down Ballot regulars Kathie Obradovich and Laura Belin. Hello, ladies. Kathie Obradovich: Hello! Good to be here. Laura Belin: Good to be here. Dave Price: And making his debut on the podcast, I was going to say “best known snake charmer” — that’s not really why he’s here, but he might be the most interesting man in the room if you really know his background. Eric Woolson, way back in the day, was a newspaper reporter. He may be the only person I know who’s worked for both a Democratic and a Republican presidential candidate. Is that true? Eric Woolson: Well, that’s where the snake charming comes in handy, I suppose. I used to say I was one of the few people who’d worked for seven presidential campaigns. But I’m absolutely positive I’m the only person who’s been a spokesperson for both Joe Biden and Michele Bachmann. Laura Belin: Narrow that down. Eric Woolson: I’ll throw that down. Dave Price: Well done — we strive for uniqueness on this show. Welcome, Eric, thanks for joining us. Derek Wulf’s Financial and Legal Troubles Dave Price: Let’s talk about this Des Moines Register story. Tyler Jett posted it Friday — and we’re recording this on Friday, so we may be talking about it as the news is still unfolding. This won’t drop until the weekend, so there could be twists and turns. Laura, I believe you were the first to report on Derek Wulf’s agricultural operations and financial challenges. Tyler Jett has picked up from there, and it shows there are still serious financial challenges for Representative Wulf, along with some strong allegations from people who’ve worked with him. What do you make of it? Laura Belin: It was a really good piece by Tyler Jett — he clarified some things I wasn’t able to nail down back in June and July. First, WCF Financial, his bank, filed a foreclosure petition in May. As of this summer they were negotiating some kind of refinancing. Derek Wulf said at the Westside Conservative Club in July that they’d been able to refinance, but that clearly wasn’t complete, because last week the bank filed a motion to have a receiver appointed, which the court approved two days ago. The bank’s filing said Wulf never presented a commitment letter — essentially proof that financing or additional collateral was lined up to support the refinancing. So we know negotiations broke down somewhere along the way. Also important: Tyler Jett confirmed with the Black Hawk County Sheriff’s Office that there is still an active criminal investigation into Wulf’s operations. That was hinted at in the May foreclosure filing, and seems related to livestock collateral belonging to the bank that may have been sold to third parties. There were also fraud allegations in an earlier filing from a separate case brought by Heartland Co-op, but I was never able to confirm an actual criminal investigation — Tyler Jett did. The Lahn campaign’s spokesperson denied any fraud occurred, but also apparently confirmed to the Register that Zach Lahn didn’t know about the criminal investigation when he picked Wulf as his running mate. Dave Price: Eric, you’re the only one of us who’s worked on campaigns — what’s traditional due diligence like when choosing a running mate? Eric Woolson: Going back to my reporting days in the ‘70s, ‘80s, and ‘90s, my first thought was: how did this happen? Clearly a due diligence question — somebody didn’t do their homework. Normally that process runs a couple of weeks: you dig into personal background, financial background, talk to people they’ve done business with, talk to the neighbors. A lot of times you’ve got a professional firm doing opposition research — including on your own candidate, so you know what the other side will say about you. Clearly none of that happened here. The landscape’s changed too. Laura’s done terrific work, the Register has a news story, but for the most part it feels like a tree falling in the forest that nobody hears. There’s not as much media in this state as there used to be, reporters are shorthanded, there’s only so many hours in the day. Regardless of party, this isn’t as big a story as it should be — and that goes back to the central question of where the due diligence was. Obviously there wasn’t any. Kathie Obradovich: To give the Lahn campaign a little grace — it’s possible that when Wulf first addressed these questions with Laura, he genuinely believed refinancing was in progress, and that kind of deal can fall apart at any point. That does happen. But this raises real questions: if this is how the Lahn campaign does due diligence on someone as important as a running mate, how can Iowa voters trust he’ll pick the right people if he becomes governor? The governor doesn’t do everything alone — you have to pick the right people for the job. Even if this is damaging to Wulf, it doesn’t mean he can’t do a good job as lieutenant governor. It’s possible the campaign knew all this and decided his financial experience actually makes him a stronger advocate for farmers. Some of this comes down to how much voters really care about who the running mate is. Laura Belin: Tyler Jett interviewed some of the creditors who sued Wulf — I’d reached out but never heard back. One of them, Chad Zoske, described something that goes well beyond normal farmer financial distress. The Lahn campaign had said all creditors were being repaid in full, but according to the Register story, Zoske ended up settling for less than he was owed because he figured something was better than nothing. Eric Woolson: Part of this may be that Lahn really came out of nowhere as a surprise candidate, so he may have lacked connections within the party infrastructure. In years past you’d have five or six names floated — someone from eastern Iowa, someone from northwest Iowa, maybe a business person — generating buzz. This pick came out of left field. The question is how much internal discussion there really was among Senate, House, and party leadership before landing on him. Normally you’d have several names floated, and I don’t recall any being out there. Lahn was surprised to be the nominee, and so was everyone else. Dave Price: He and Governor Kim Reynolds had never even met before the primary, so there wasn’t much happening behind the scenes there either. I should also note — I double-checked with the Secretary of State’s office — it’s too late to get Derek Wulf’s name off the ballot even if this became a bigger controversy. I’m curious, Eric: how does a campaign decide how much to talk about something like this? Zach Lahn already has a complicated personal story — the Kansas connection, an ex-wife, his wife’s ex-husband, kids who live there, the farmhouse in Belle Plaine — and Rob Sanders has tried to capitalize on the “Kansas guy, not an Iowa guy” angle. Now there’s Wulf’s farm finances too. How does a campaign decide whether to get out in front of something like this — a press conference, addressing it directly — versus staying quiet or responding only in writing? Eric Woolson: That’s always an internal calculation, and campaigns typically have people on both sides of it. Talk about it more and you risk drawing more attention; don’t talk about it and you risk looking like you’re hiding something. It depends on the circumstances — and as Laura’s and Tyler Jett’s reporting shows, this is out of the ordinary. You can talk about farmers facing financial difficulty in general, but this has been going on a long time and hasn’t been handled well. My guess is the campaign sticks with something like “this shows he understands what farmers are going through.” I’d have pushed hard for getting out in front of it. But first and foremost: don’t have the issue in the first place, and y

    Iowa Down Ballot with Dave Price 9/5/26

  8. Aug 29

    Iowa Down Ballot with Dave Price 8/29/26

    We welcomed Ed Failor Jr. to the show for the first time — longtime Iowa Republican operative, former head of Iowans for Tax Relief — and put him through the paces alongside Kathie Obradovich and Laura Belin. We dug into the new Suffolk poll. Ashley Hinson is up 45-41 on Josh Turek, Rob Sand is up 48-44 on Zach Lahn. The Libertarians lost in court again. A judge ruled they can’t replace their disqualified candidates, so their LG and 3rd District picks are off the ballot pending a possible appeal. We talked beef! The president’s move to allow cheaper foreign beef imports has ranchers fuming, with timing that couldn’t be worse for Iowa’s cattle counties. And we closed on whether Hinson’s time in Congress is a liability in a statewide race. Ed says no. It’s the candidate, not the office. Want to sharpen your writing and get the inside scoop on Iowa politics at the same time? Join us September 27-30 at the Okoboji Writers’ & Songwriters’ Retreat on beautiful West Lake Okoboji, featuring Iowa Down Ballot analysts Laura Belin and Kathie Obradovich. They’ll walk you through finding public information, getting your opinion pieces published, and plenty more. Spots are limited, so scan the QR code at the beginning and end of the video or head to okobojiwritersretreat.com to sign up. If you’d like to make a donation to help the Iowa Writer’s Collaborative which supports this show please click the button below. Thanks! Auto-generated transcript below: Dave Price: Welcome back, everybody, to the Iowa Down Ballot podcast. I’m Dave Price. This week, we are going to talk about a new statewide poll that shows, yet again — in case you didn’t know this — that we have some really competitive races in this state. We’re also going to talk about beef. The president has made a move that has ticked off some cattle ranchers, and we’re going to dig into that a little bit. And we have a tradition, it seems, on this weekly podcast: we must cover the latest twists and turns of the Libertarian candidates, so we’ll do that too. With us this week are regulars Kathie Obradovich and Laura Belin. Hello, ladies. Kathie Obradovich: Oh! Laura Belin: Good to see ya! Dave Price: But this week we’ve added a fourth. This is something we’ve been talking about for quite a while, and it is now a thing: Ed Failor Jr. joins us this week. He’s a longtime Republican who has had a bunch of different jobs — he’s worked at the Statehouse, he’s worked on campaigns, he led an organization, Iowans for Tax Relief, and he’s done other stuff too. We’ll maybe get into some of that. Regardless, welcome, Ed. Thanks for doing this. Ed Failor: Well, happy to be here. I just — people talking is a good thing. Dave Price: It is a good thing. You and I, over the years, have had many lengthy conversations, and now we can do it here. And as you promised, you’ll work in at least one dad joke — in case any of your kids are listening to this podcast. True? Ed Failor: I’m going to ignore the ageism of that and go with it. Yeah. Dave Price: I’m apparently with you, because I’m accused of that all the time. I wear it as a badge of honor. All right, all right — trio. The Suffolk University Poll Dave Price: Let’s set things up with this new Suffolk University poll. Two of the big races we’ve talked about all year: the governor’s race and the U.S. Senate race. Quick numbers — in the Senate race, Republican Ashley Hinson leads 45–41 over Democrat Josh Turek, with Libertarian Thomas Lane at 4%. The governor’s race is flipped: Democrat Rob Sand is at 48%, Republican Zach Lahn at 44%, no Libertarian in that race. That’s our tease — we’ll get to the Libertarians, but not yet. Kathie, we’ve said again and again that it’s a competitive race — when you see these numbers, what’s the “why” of it? Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, I think one thing I liked about this poll is they asked a lot of issue questions that help explain where people are coming from, and it won’t surprise anyone — it’s the economy, it’s gas prices, it’s household expenses, grocery prices. Poll respondents were asked what they’re spending more money on, and gas and groceries topped the list. President Trump’s approval rating is down, as we’ve seen in other polls and nationally. There’s also still a healthy number of undecided voters. I was glad to see Thomas Lane included in this poll — we hadn’t seen a poll name the Libertarian candidate before, for reasons we’ll get into. But he’s on the ballot, and he pulled about 3 points that look like they came from Republicans and 1 point from Democrats. So if we speculate about who the Libertarian hurts more in this race, it’s probably Ashley Hinson. Dave Price: Laura, what’s your takeaway? Laura Belin: I like to look at the composition of the electorate. I could look at this poll and say it’s encouraging for Republicans — Zach Lahn isn’t that far behind, he’s much less well-known than Rob Sand, and he has room to grow, while Hinson still has a lead. But I looked at the sample: 38% Republican, 33% Independent, 28% Democrat. That’s a decent reflection of Iowa’s registered voters as a whole, but a poor reflection of who’s likely to vote in a midterm — there’s no way independents will outnumber Democrats at the ballot box in November. Democratic turnout will be higher than independent turnout, even accounting for a stronger-than-usual independent showing. So if I’m a Democrat, I’m looking at this poll and thinking Rob Sand’s lead could actually be understated. Also worth noting: the recalled 2024 presidential vote in this sample was Trump +11, close to Trump’s actual 13-point win in the state — but there’s no guarantee the November electorate mirrors 2024. We’ve talked about this before: if you’d polled in 2014 assuming the electorate would look like 2012’s, you’d have been way off. So — I have no idea. I do feel Hinson is slightly favored in the Senate race, but this poll doesn’t look like what the November electorate is likely to be. Dave Price: Ed, you’ve watched how the sausage is made for years — what did you think of the headline numbers, and of the internals? Ed Failor: Laura stole one of my two points, so it must have been a good one — the composition of who they polled isn’t what the electorate is actually going to look like. That was my biggest takeaway, and Laura’s right. The other thing: the numbers are all within the margin of error, so who really knows. Polls are a snapshot of a group of people at a given time. They brought in a good sample from Muscatine County, which is a real bellwether — that was smart. But the thing that struck me most was why people said they’re voting. Forty percent of likely voters said it’s their civic duty — for people willing to answer a poll in August, that doesn’t surprise me; I’d almost have expected that number to be higher. But 30% said they’re voting because of the political climate, and that’s interesting. Without the crosstabs, you can’t see the “why” behind that — as a Republican, I’m not happy with the climate either, and I know plenty of Democrats who aren’t public about their views, so that number cuts both ways. Without an incumbent on the ballot, Sand and Hinson are each the closest thing to one, and having them up by a bit this early is normal — the late deciders will make the difference. I’d be concerned, as a Republican, that those numbers aren’t better given the state we’re in. The Cabinet Visits Dave Price: Ed, can you zoom out and look at the last couple of weeks? About the only people who haven’t visited Iowa lately are Donald Trump and J.D. Vance — I exaggerate only slightly. They sent a plane full of administration officials who did various things; a bunch went to the State Fair. Is this a protective move, making sure they don’t take chances because so much is at stake — or are they seeing the numbers, feeling the environment, and thinking “we need to reinforce en masse”? Ed Failor: Probably a little of both, but more the latter. It’s real early for them to be doing this, so I’d assume — mathematically, as a Republican, I’m not thrilled — that the latter is more likely. It’s a way for them to plug in and help, and putting people like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or Pete Hegseth in front of voters gives some gravitas without it being the president himself, which is a double-edged sword at best. Dave Price: Sure. Laura, what do you have? Laura Belin: I’d like Ed’s take on something. I’ve watched all the soapbox speeches, and at this stage of a campaign you often see candidates pivot toward the middle — Zach Nunn and Ashley Hinson both talked about their bipartisan work. But I was struck that Nunn brought in Pete Hegseth, and Hinson is bringing back Ted Cruz, who just campaigned with her. I’d have thought those were fairly polarizing figures they might not want to elevate. What does Ed make of that? Ed Failor: I think Hegseth’s appearance is interesting, and probably less polarizing than we’d assume — most voters don’t have strong feelings about him one way or the other, even though people like us in the political world do. I think the mistake people in our world and in the press make is assuming the average Iowan is paying close attention yet. So bringing in Hegseth is partly about just getting people to pay attention. Ted Cruz, I find more interesting — is that about shoring up the “I’m a real conservative” credential? If you went to church this weekend and asked people whether they know who Pete Hegseth is, you’d mostly get “I’ve heard the name” — but he’s from the administration, and that adds some weight. Years ago, when Tom Vilsack was governor, there was a name-ID poll — something like 70% of Iowans knew who Vilsack was, but when the same group was asked

    Iowa Down Ballot with Dave Price 8/29/26
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Professional political analysts discuss Iowa politics with refreshing, in-depth conversations. iowawriterscollaborative.substack.com

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    2024 - 2026
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