Optimists Make Money

Stephen McBride
  • 4.8 (14)
  • Investing

Pessimists sound smart. Optimists make money. Learn about the near future directly from the people building it. Conversations with top 1% founders and innovators building tomorrow's most important companies, giving you practical insights to make the right investing, business, and career decisions. Hosted by Investor and Author Stephen McBride.

  1. 8h ago ·  Video

    Why Cheap Drones Are Breaking the Economics of War | OMM Compilation

    Order Stephen's new #1 Bestselling book, Disruption Investing: The Framework to Multiply Your Wealth in Disruptor Stocks. https://www.riskhedge.com/order-disruption-investing  From his office window in Abu Dhabi, Stephen watched Patriot interceptors shoot down drones he puts at roughly $20,000 apiece. The interceptors did their job — you're glad that expensive interceptor exists when it's heading toward your city. But when stopping a cheap drone costs millions, how long can you keep making that trade? In this Optimists Make Money compilation, defense founders and investors explain what happens when militaries need affordable systems in large numbers. They break down why you have to "hunt the archer, not the arrow," how cheap underwater drones create massive asymmetry at sea, why lasers at less than $0.10 a shot could answer the drone-defense problem, why military systems still struggle to work together, and how automated manufacturing is cutting rocket-nozzle lead times from 12+ months to under two weeks. The episode closes with a debate about what Ukraine's drone war can — and can't — tell us about a potential conflict in the Pacific, and whether the ability to build drones at scale could make war less likely. 00:00 The $20,000 Drone Problem 01:23 Cheap Drones and Expensive Defenses 04:41 What Counter-Drone Startups Are Building 06:54 The Race to Lower the Cost per Shot 10:06 Why Air Defense Needs Layers 12:07 Why Military Systems Still Can't Talk 17:14 The Case for Cheaper Underwater Drones 20:24 What Makes the Strait of Hormuz Hard to Reopen 22:56 Why U.S. Drone Makers Face Different Constraints 25:49 The Rocket Nozzle Bottleneck 30:24 Disruption Investing 31:22 Can Faster Manufacturing Scale? 33:55 Why Cheap Hardware Challenges Defense Primes 36:20 What Ukraine Can Teach Us About the Pacific 40:33 Do Cheap Drones Make War More Likely? 🎯 Join the Rational Optimist Society (Free): https://zpr.io/Cm2bNANWYsy4 If you're ready for deeper insights and fresh takes on today's critical issues, hit the subscribe button!   Follow us on X: The Rational Optimist Society: https://x.com/RationalOptSoc Stephen McBride: https://x.com/DisruptionHedge

  2. Nov 4 ·  Video

    The Rocket Part Holding Back America's Missile Production | Orbital Composites

    Order Stephen's new #1 Bestselling book, Disruption Investing: The Framework to Multiply Your Wealth in Disruptor Stocks. https://www.riskhedge.com/order-disruption-investing A rocket nozzle can take more than a year to manufacture. Orbital Composites says its robotic process can cut that to less than two weeks—but getting new parts qualified remains a major hurdle. Amolak, co-founder and CEO of Orbital Composites, joins Stephen McBride to explain how robotic 3D printing could help address a critical bottleneck in American missile production. They explore why solid rocket motors need specialized composites, how two robots work together to print reinforced parts, and what it takes to move from a promising manufacturing process to equipment the military can actually use. Beyond missiles, Amolak lays out a broader vision: modular factories deployed in shipping containers and a manufacturing business modeled on TSMC, producing advanced materials for customers across defense, aerospace, and energy. In this episode: • Why rocket nozzles are so difficult to manufacture • The qualification hurdle between prototypes and deployment • How robotics, simulation, and physical AI could accelerate production • Why distributed factories could make supply chains more resilient • What bringing manufacturing back to America actually requires Plus: Amolak's overrated-or-underrated takes on humanoid robots, hypersonic missiles, Golden Dome, and going to Mars. 0:00 Rocket nozzles: From 12 months to two weeks 0:41 Inside Orbital Composites' robotic factory 3:19 Why rocket nozzles are a defense bottleneck 8:56 Disruption Investing 9:38 Getting new missile parts qualified 11:35 Scaling rocket nozzle production 15:41 Robotics, advanced materials, and physical AI 20:42 Factories in shipping containers 23:40 Selling parts, not just robots 25:01 Becoming the TSMC of advanced materials 27:36 What American reindustrialization requires 30:33 Overrated or underrated? 32:45 Where to find Orbital Composites

  3. Oct 28 ·  Video

    Turning Mercury Into Gold Inside a Fusion Reactor | Marathon Fusion

    Order Stephen's new #1 Bestselling book, Disruption Investing: The Framework to Multiply Your Wealth in Disruptor Stocks. https://www.riskhedge.com/order-disruption-investing Could turning mercury into gold make nuclear fusion commercially viable? Marathon Fusion's Jason Parisi explains how producing valuable materials alongside electricity could change the economics of fusion power. Jason, Marathon's chief science officer, joins Stephen to explain the company's approach: start with scarce medical isotopes, develop the hardware, and work toward fusion plants that could produce both electricity and gold. Instead of entering the fiercely competitive electricity market first, Marathon is targeting materials used in emerging cancer treatments. We unpack how mercury could become gold inside a fusion reactor, why Jason believes that could double or triple a plant's revenue, and the catch: the resulting gold may need years in storage before it can be handled. Those economics are projections, and the conversation explores the assumptions behind them—including whether new supply could crash the gold market. We also discuss plasma centrifuges, what investors should look for beyond impressive reactor renderings, and how Marathon is using AI to accelerate research. Plus: China's fusion ambitions, the practical barriers to commercialization, and why Jason sees fusion becoming an industrial platform for manufacturing some of the world's most valuable materials. 0:00 Could gold change fusion economics? 0:46 Meet Jason Parisi: What is nuclear fusion? 4:19 Why start with medical isotopes? 6:41 Disruption Investing 7:24 How medical isotopes target cancer 9:48 Why selling electricity first is so difficult 11:28 Turning mercury into gold 15:32 Could fusion gold cost less than mining? 16:10 Radioactive gold: The 7–17-year wait 18:31 Could fusion crash the gold market? 20:03 Inside a fusion machine—and Marathon's lab 21:19 How Marathon's isotope approach differs 22:59 How plasma centrifuges work 24:30 What fusion investors should look for 25:49 How AI is changing fusion research 28:47 Rethinking scientific work in the AI era 29:48 Where humans add value as AI improves 32:36 Comparing AI tools for science and coding 33:31 China, America, and the fusion race 35:55 Where fusion talent goes 36:55 Fusion regulation and nuclear waste 37:59 From optimistic physicists to commercial teams 39:22 What would accelerate fusion? 40:08 What $10 billion could—and couldn't—speed up 42:05 AI and brain-computer interfaces 43:30 What success looks like for Marathon Fusion 44:29 Overrated or underrated? 45:23 Where to follow Marathon Fusion 45:44 Join the Rational Optimist Society

  4. Oct 21 ·  Video

    The New Satellite Economy: Beyond Cheap Rockets | Muon Space

    Order Stephen's new #1 Bestselling book, Disruption Investing: The Framework to Multiply Your Wealth in Disruptor Stocks. https://www.riskhedge.com/order-disruption-investing Satellites that spot small wildfires, locate GPS jammers, and monitor drought—all built on platforms from the same company. Muon Space is helping turn space infrastructure into practical tools on Earth. Jonny Dyer, co-founder and CEO of Muon Space, joins Optimists Make Money to explain how cheaper launches, better sensors, and faster satellite connectivity are opening up missions that once cost too much or took too long. We dive into FireSat, a satellite system designed to give firefighters earlier warnings and better information about a fire's intensity and movement. Beyond wildfire detection, Muon builds spacecraft supporting radio-frequency intelligence and agricultural monitoring, with upcoming missions targeting military weather intelligence and direct-to-satellite Bluetooth connectivity. Jonny explains the engineering and supply-chain challenges behind these systems, why Muon builds so much in-house, and where he sees opportunities for founders and investors in space infrastructure. He also revisits the early days of SpaceX, working alongside its first engineers, and launching satellites on converted Russian nuclear missiles. Plus: why launch capacity could tighten again, where data centers in space make sense—and where the hype gets ahead of reality—and what China's growing capabilities mean for America's position in space.   0:00 Small satellites, faster wildfire detection 0:50 What Muon Space does 1:26 Why satellites took years and cost a fortune 4:19 What makes space so hard? 6:09 Disruption Investing 6:51 The next big unlock: networks and platforms 10:18 FireSat and the wildfire information gap 13:43 How satellites detect small fires from space 16:56 From satellite image to firefighter alert 20:19 Earning the trust of fire agencies 23:48 The space infrastructure problem Jonny would solve 24:43 Inside the early days of SpaceX 27:26 How risk-taking unlocks engineering talent 29:03 What Elon Musk was like early on 30:19 Launching satellites on converted Russian missiles 34:10 When to build in-house—and when to buy 35:35 Space businesses nobody is building 36:50 Quickfire: investing, hiring, and industry assumptions 39:51 The bottlenecks in scaling satellite production 41:07 Is another launch shortage coming? 43:14 Is it too late to start a rocket company? 44:12 Data centers in space: promise versus hype 47:13 The space industry beyond SpaceX 48:33 Wildfires, weather forecasts, and everyday life 51:36 China's challenge to US space leadership 53:11 Overrated or underrated? 54:05 Where to follow Muon Space

  5. Oct 14 ·  Video

    Why America's Military Systems Still Can't Talk to Each Other | Picogrid

    America can build advanced fighter jets and autonomous drones. So why do its military systems still struggle to talk to each other? Zane Mountcastle, founder of Picogrid, explains the infrastructure problem behind modern military technology—and how his company's Legion platform helps connect sensors, autonomous systems, and command networks. On Optimists Make Money, Zane breaks down why military integration is more than a software challenge. Legacy equipment, competing defense contractors, and rigid procurement requirements can make connecting systems slow and expensive. He explains Picogrid's approach: reusable infrastructure that lets new technology plug into existing networks and adapt as threats change. The conversation also explores how China's military faces a different set of challenges, why Zane believes mass-produced drones can strengthen deterrence, and where specialized defense startups can compete with the established giants. For founders, engineers, and investors, Zane shares why waiting for the military to request your product may mean you're already too late—and why he sees enormous opportunity in manufacturing and hard tech. Plus: the risks of battlefield AI, El Segundo's industrial revival, hiring engineers with initiative, and which emerging defense technologies he considers overrated or underrated. Order Stephen's new #1 Bestselling book, Disruption Investing: The Framework to Multiply Your Wealth in Disruptor Stocks. https://www.riskhedge.com/order-disruption-investing   0:00 America's military integration problem 0:57 How the battlefield has changed 1:58 Why military systems can't talk to each other 7:05 Disruption Investing 7:47 How Picogrid's Legion works on a military base 9:13 Reusable infrastructure vs. custom integration 13:26 Does China have the same problem? 15:16 Can cheap drones prevent war? 17:53 Defense startups vs. the established giants 22:34 Who benefits if Picogrid succeeds? 25:25 The biggest mistake defense founders make 27:20 Battlefield AI and hallucination risks 29:20 Lessons from Abu Dhabi's rapid development 31:29 How America can build fast again 34:21 Why El Segundo is a hard tech hub 37:37 Hiring engineers with initiative 39:03 Quickfire: procurement, culture, and founder advice 40:26 A different kind of defense company 41:45 What changes if Picogrid wins? 42:35 Overrated or underrated: defense technology 44:43 Where to follow Picogrid 45:16 Rational Optimist Society

  6. Oct 7 ·  Video

    This Warehouse Robot Could Change Shipping Forever | Pickle Robot Company

    Physical AI could transform the supply chain—but why is unloading a truck still so hard to automate? Pickle Robot founder and CEO AJ Meyer explains what separates an impressive robot demo from a machine customers actually want to buy. In this episode of Optimists Make Money, AJ takes us inside the punishing warehouse jobs his company is working to automate. He explains why handling cardboard boxes can be harder than driving a car, how reinforcement learning and simulation could unlock more capable robots, and why useful dexterity remains a major challenge. We explore his case for purpose-built machines over humanoid robots, his assessment of Tesla Optimus, and the limits of learning from human demonstrations alone. AJ also shares a practical signal for investors: pay attention when warehouse operators start asking their bosses for more robots. The conversation covers the business of warehouse automation, the value of proprietary deployment data, China's hardware strengths, and the privacy risks created by robots equipped with cameras. AJ closes with his vision for an automated supply chain—and what people could do when they no longer have to unload trucks to earn a living.

  7. Sep 30 ·  Video

    How China Got Ahead—and How America Can Catch Up | Compilation

    Order Stephen's new #1 Bestselling book, Disruption Investing: The Framework to Multiply Your Wealth in Disruptor Stocks. https://www.riskhedge.com/order-disruption-investing How did China become so difficult to compete with in manufacturing, batteries, and rare earths—and what would it take for America to catch up? This Optimists Make Money compilation brings together founders and engineers explaining China's industrial strengths, America's supply chain vulnerabilities, and the technologies that could change the competitive balance. Across conversations about critical minerals, lithium-ion batteries, synthetic fuels, nuclear energy, drones, and asteroid mining, a recurring question emerges: what happens when a country invents breakthrough technologies but loses the ability to manufacture them at scale? We explore how industrial policy, offshoring, regulation, and engineering talent shaped today's competition. You'll hear about new approaches to rare earth processing, the challenge of rebuilding American factories, and why cheaper components and greater production capacity matter for energy and national security. The discussion also examines China's long-term ambitions in space—and challenges the assumption that Chinese companies simply copy Western technology. For founders, engineers, and investors, these interviews offer a practical look at where the bottlenecks are, what competing with China actually requires, and where the next generation of industrial companies could make a difference. Subscribe to Optimists Make Money for conversations with the people building the future.   Chapters 0:00 Are We Underestimating China? 0:46 How America Lost Its Industrial Lead 2:30 Where China Is Ahead in Technology 3:33 Disruption Investing: Book Break 4:16 How China Built Its Battery Advantage 7:35 What If China Cut Off Rare Earth Supplies? 9:03 How America Lost Rare Earth Processing 11:00 How Rare Earth Separation Works 12:04 A New Approach: Chromatography 13:30 The Environmental Cost of Rare Earth Processing 15:38 Can US Rare Earth Processing Compete on Cost? 18:46 The Defense Industry's Rare Earth Problem 19:55 Can America Rebuild Its Battery Industry? 23:34 Lithium Supply Chains and the Sodium-Ion Debate 26:25 Synthetic Fuels: Learning From China's Speed 29:00 China's Nuclear Strategy and Advanced Reactor Fuel 29:57 What's Holding American Factories Back? 32:21 Manufacturing's Skills and Knowledge Gap 35:34 Why America Still Needs to Build 39:05 Drone Regulations and US Manufacturing 41:15 Underwater Drones and Supply Chain Bottlenecks 43:32 Protecting Undersea Cables 44:58 How Drone Warfare Changes in the Pacific 49:19 China and the Asteroid Mining Race 50:34 China's Long-Term Space Strategy 52:48 Join the Rational Optimist Society

  8. Sep 23 ·  Video

    China Controls 90% of Rare Earths. This Startup Has a Fix | Maglut

    Order Stephen's new #1 Bestselling book, Disruption Investing: The Framework to Multiply Your Wealth in Disruptor Stocks. https://www.riskhedge.com/order-disruption-investing China controls more than 90% of the world's rare-earth processing capacity. If that supply disappeared, the effects could reach everything from iPhones and airplanes to advanced military systems. Curtis Wu, co-founder and CEO of Maglut Heavy Industries, joins Stephen McBride to explain how the United States surrendered this critical industrial capability—and why rebuilding it requires more than copying China's environmentally destructive processing plants. Maglut's ARC-1 system adapts chromatography, a purification technique refined by the biotechnology industry, to separate rare-earth elements. The company says its water-based approach could deliver a 10× smaller facility, 10× lower capital costs, and 20× lower energy consumption than conventional solvent extraction—all while producing individual rare-earth elements at 99.9% purity. Curtis explains how ARC-1 works, why chromatography has only recently become economically viable, and whether American production can compete with China on cost. They also discuss the looming 2027 defense-supply deadline, America's shortage of chemical engineers, government support for advanced manufacturing, uranium enrichment, and the limits of AI inside physical laboratories. Can America rebuild its rare-earth supply chain before China's dominance becomes an unavoidable choke point? 0:00 China's rare-earth choke point 1:04 What are rare earth elements? 2:07 Why processing is the real bottleneck 4:03 Maglut's alternative to solvent extraction 5:26 Disruption Investing 6:08 China's 90% processing dominance 7:36 Where rare earths appear in everyday life 8:56 How America lost its industrial lead 10:53 The rare-earth supply chain explained 12:58 Inside China's "sacrifice zones" 15:05 Bringing clean processing back to America 16:49 How ARC-1 separates rare earths 19:14 Why chromatography is viable now 21:21 America builds the cloud; China builds the world 23:05 Where China leads the United States 24:08 America's chemical-engineer shortage 24:58 Scaling Maglut beyond pilot production 27:25 The approaching 2027 defense deadline 28:34 Does the industry need government support? 30:04 Can advanced manufacturing scale in California? 30:52 America's engineering talent problem 32:58 A world with abundant rare earths 35:29 Founder lessons from competitive tennis 36:28 Could ARC-1 transform uranium enrichment? 37:40 What AI can—and can't—do in the lab 39:03 The overlooked potential of neuroscience 40:16 Overrated or underrated 41:40 How to follow Maglut Join the Rational Optimist Society (Free): https://zpr.io/Cm2bNANWYsy4 If you're ready for deeper insights and fresh takes on today's critical issues, hit the subscribe button! Follow us on X: The Rational Optimist Society: https://x.com/RationalOptSoc Stephen McBride: https://x.com/DisruptionHedge

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4.8
out of 5
14 Ratings

About

Pessimists sound smart. Optimists make money. Learn about the near future directly from the people building it. Conversations with top 1% founders and innovators building tomorrow's most important companies, giving you practical insights to make the right investing, business, and career decisions. Hosted by Investor and Author Stephen McBride.

Information

  • Creator
    Stephen McBride
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    76
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © 2024 Rational Optimist Society. All rights reserved.
  • Show Website
    Optimists Make Money

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