QAV America (free feed)

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  1. 3D AGO

    Profiting from Chaos – QAV America 46

    Episode 46 of QAV America opens on Tony Kynaston’s birthday — complete with a QAV cap gift — before Cameron and Tony dig into a week of market chaos, with their main US portfolio down 12% over 30 days but still up an extraordinary 83% since inception in September 2023 versus the S&P’s 42%. The guys tackle the big macro picture, riffing on a Fortune article declaring US government insolvency (liabilities nearly 8x assets), the mysterious $500 million oil futures trade placed 15 minutes before Trump’s Iran announcement, and the aluminum supply chain crisis triggered by Iranian strikes on Middle East smelters. The episode’s centrepiece is Cameron’s Pulled Pork deep dive on Pitney Bowes (PBI) — the century-old postage meter pioneer turned digital shipping play — covering its disastrous Global eCommerce venture, the activist takeover by deep value investor Kurt Wolf of Hestia Capital, and why the stock’s QAV score of 0.16 and solid cash generation make it a compelling cigar-butt turnaround play.   This week’s full episode is for QAV Club members only. The free episode is available below. Also check out our podcast archives link and our pages on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or watch clips on TikTok. Or visit our homepage to learn more about QAV and how it works as a value investing system that you can learn and apply to beat the market. Free Podcast Archives Transcription QAV AMERICAN 46 Club [00:00:00] [00:00:00] Cameron Reilly: Welcome back to QAV America, episode 46. Tony Eson. How are you? [00:00:08] TK: Very good. You wouldn’t know it’s QAV with my QAV shirt on and QAV cap on. [00:00:13] Cameron Reilly: For people that aren’t watching the video feed. Yeah, it’s Tony’s birthday, so I gave him a QAV cap ’cause I ran out of ideas and time. Uh, well, you know, it’s some, it’s something you should be proud of. Your contribution to the world of investing. You’re a given, not a taker. That’s what they said about you in prison anyway. [00:00:39] Cameron Reilly: Um, that’s what you had to establish yourself. Very early on in Bogger Road, very famous prison in Brisbane where my grandfather actually went and learned to play chess, which was a great thing. It’s become a family tradition now. [00:00:54] TK: chess or he was there and he learned how to play chess. [00:00:56] Cameron Reilly: I, that’s the way I sell it. Yeah. He, he thought, where’s the best place I can [00:01:00] learn chess for free? [00:01:00] Cameron Reilly: I’ll go do, go do two years in Bogger Road. [00:01:05] TK: Oh, okay. We’re [00:01:08] Cameron Reilly: Tony. [00:01:09] TK: before too. [00:01:09] Cameron Reilly: Yeah, yeah, yeah. I was gonna say it’s a great, and then he started a great family tradition. What gonna prison? No playing chess. Yeah. Well, so far, yeah. Yeah. Breaking and entering. [00:01:21] TK: Oh, was it? I was gonna say, was it annoying people [00:01:24] Cameron Reilly: Uh, [00:01:25] TK: the public? [00:01:26] Cameron Reilly: you can’t go to prison for that yet, Tony. Um. It’s been a crazy week on the, well, just in the world, um, in the, uh, stock market. Of course, it’s been a crazy week. I think as, uh, we’re recording this, which is the 31st of March, Australian time. The Dow Jones over the last week is down the s and p 500. Over the last week is very much down our portfolios in the us.[00:02:00] [00:02:00] Cameron Reilly: I can’t get this to gimme a week, but in the last month, our US main US portfolio, the one we’ve been running for a few years is down 12% in the last 30 days versus the s and p down 8%. But for all time, and this goes back to September, 2023, our portfolio is up 83% versus the s and p up 42%. So we’re basically doing double market over the whatever, two and a half years. [00:02:34] Cameron Reilly: Is that two and a half years? Seven, five, yes. Two and a half years. Which is not too shabby. Um, happy with that. The light portfolio that I’ve started late last year, 22nd and December for the last 30 days is actually up 4% in the last 30 days when everything else is crashing. Yeah. The s and p is down 8%. [00:02:58] Cameron Reilly: We’re up [00:03:00] 4%. [00:03:00] TK: Didn’t, uh, happen to trade some oil futures 15 minutes before a major announcement. Do it. [00:03:04] Cameron Reilly: No, that was not me. Uh, I did buy some oil stocks in this portfolio, though. Uh, so yeah, that’s probably had a lot to do with it all times since, uh, 22nd of December we’re only up 2% versus the s and p down 8%. So, uh, we’re still outperforming, um, some of the big wins. Remember last week we talked about Eastman Kodak. [00:03:26] TK: Yeah. [00:03:27] Cameron Reilly: when I checked it was up 21%. Since I added it the previous Monday, it’s come, it came back a bit last night. Now it’s up 12%. I dunno why Kodak dropped overnight, but um, some of the stocks are doing great. Cord energy is up 53% in the light portfolio. Eco petrol is up 21. Murphy Oil, we only talked about it, we added a few weeks ago, is up 21. [00:03:52] Cameron Reilly: Neighbor Industries. Neighbors Industries, NBR, the um. Uh, energy industry technology [00:04:00] provider firm is up 12%. Geo Park is up 11 SSPW Scripps, we talked about the television stations. Business is up 10%. Um, so yeah, all doing, uh, quite well despite a chaotic market. Um. [00:04:20] TK: And, and of course, you know, we, we were buying all. Companies before recent spike on the oil price, but it hasn’t, it certainly hasn’t hurt. Um, and these stocks could come back if there’s a breakout of peace and sanity in the, in the world, what, what’s the likelihood of that? [00:04:41] Cameron Reilly: Yeah, not much chance of that with the current administrations that we have around the world. I think Tony, um. [00:04:47] TK: I was gonna say is that we are ready for it. If they do come back, we’ve got our sell [00:04:51] Cameron Reilly: Yeah. [00:04:52] TK: and procedures, so yeah. [00:04:54] Cameron Reilly: Yeah. Things have been going, uh, very well despite the [00:05:00] chaos. Marker [00:05:01] Cameron Reilly: Trump wants another $200 billion to finish the war that he said was won a month ago. [00:05:07] TK: Well, all he has to do is, as we know, is to, is to get into the, your market 15 minutes before he posts on true social. And he’s got that, that inflow to do whatever he wants. Yeah. [00:05:17] Cameron Reilly: I am not sure he is gonna spend that profit on, uh, financing the war. Um. So, yeah, we, you mentioned this article, so I saw this in Fortune the other day, the, this is by Steve Hanky, who’s a professor of Applied Economics at the Johns Hopkins University, and a member of the board of Directors at the Federal Fiscal Sustainability Foundation. He says The treasury just declared the US insolvent. The media missed it. The US government is insolvent. That’s not hyperbole. It’s the conclusion drawn directly from the treasury department’s own consolidated financial statements for fiscal year 2025, released last week to near total media silence. The numbers 6.06 trillion in [00:06:00] total assets against 47.78 trillion in total liabilities as of September 30th, 2025. Importantly, the 47.78 trillion in reported liabilities does not include the unfunded obligations of social insurance programs like Social Security and Medicare. Those are the close separately in the off balance sheet. [00:06:23] Cameron Reilly: Statement of social infrastructure, consolidated balance sheet position, excluding the SOSI. Deteriorated nearly 2.07 trillion between FY 24 and FY 25, reaching a staggering negative 41.72 trillion. liabilities are now nearly eight times the value of reported assets. The largest drivers were a $2 trillion increase in federal debt and interest payable. [00:06:54] Cameron Reilly: Now 30.33 trillion and a 438.8 billion increase in federal [00:07:00] employee and veteran benefits payable. Now 15.47 trillion goes on and on and on. But, um, the, sort of the, they break it down into more relatable numbers later on. said most people cannot relate to trillion dollar figures on a government ledger. [00:07:17] Cameron Reilly: So consider this, this is their, uh, coffee shop analogy. Divide every number by a hundred million. Drop eight zeros in federal finances look like a household budget and free fall. That household earns $52,456 and spends 73,378 running a 20,932 annual deficit. total liabilities in unfunded promises amount to 1.361 million against just $60,554 in assets leaving at 1.3 million in the whole Uncle Sam by any accounting standard is insolvent. Congress has clearly lost control of the nation’s [00:08:00] finances. America is facing a fiscal catastrophe. The reckoning, long deferred is becoming impossible to ignore. [00:08:08] TK: The coffee shop analogy is the right one to use. Uh, except that misses one important factor, and that is that in the coffee shop that the US government runs, they have a magic printing press in the basement. And uh, they can keep. Funding their liabilities by either printing more money or issuing more debt. [00:08:28] TK: Um, I, I did a bit of research into this article ’cause it, it’s, it’s always bothered me. Um, and this isn’t the first year the US government’s been insolvent on any sort of balance sheet reckoning. It’s the 29th year that the, um, the, uh, what’s it called? The GOA, the government, whatever the government agency is, that signs off on these accounts has refused to sign off on the account. [00:08:53] Cameron Reilly: Government accounting office or [00:08:55] TK: Yeah, that’s it. GAO. So they haven’t signed off on the accounts for 29 years for [00

    35 min

  2. MAR 25

    We Press the Button on KODK – QAV America #45

    In Episode 45 of QAV America, recorded on March 24, 2026, Cameron Reilly and Tony Kynaston open with a geopolitical check-in on the ongoing US-Iran conflict and its impact on oil prices and market volatility, before diving into portfolio performance updates showing the QAV dummy portfolio up 92% all-time versus the S&P 500’s 48% since September 2023. The star segment is Cameron’s deep-dive “Pulled Pork” on Eastman Kodak (KODK) — a fascinating turnaround story covering the company’s reinvention from film giant to chemical manufacturer, pharmaceutical ingredient producer, and unlikely streetwear licensor in South Korea, complete with a Trump-era insider trading scandal and a billion-dollar pension reversion windfall. The guys also briefly flag Geo Park (GPRK) as up 9% since last week’s deep dive, and discuss how oil stocks like Cord Energy, Eco Petrol, and Murphy Oil have been propping up the Light Portfolio during the market downturn.   This week’s full episode is for QAV Club members only. The free episode is available below. Also check out our podcast archives link and our pages on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or watch clips on TikTok. Or visit our homepage to learn more about QAV and how it works as a value investing system that you can learn and apply to beat the market. Free Podcast Archives Transcription QAV AMERICA 45 Club Cameron Reilly: [00:00:00] Welcome to QAV America, Tony, episode 45, recording this on the 24th of March, 2026. The Run, not a War, is in its fourth week. Tony Kynaston: Mm-hmm. Cameron Reilly: My, my Iranian friend from Kung fu, uh, before this all started, we knew it was coming. I said, what, how long do you think it will hap it’ll take when, when it starts. He goes two days. Be over in two days. Regime will collapse. IRGC will collapse. Like two days. Yeah, two days. And we got to about day three, I said, how he goes, two weeks, it’ll be over in two weeks. By the end of the two weeks. I said, how long? He goes, four weeks. Four weeks. It’ll all be, it’ll all be done. So I said to him the other day, if we get into week five, you owe me a thousand bucks. He goes, yeah, yeah. Four weeks. It’ll all be done. It’ll all be over. I said, I don’t know, man. I don’t know. Tony Kynaston: we’ve just passed the 48 hour deadline before the, uh, Cameron Reilly: Yeah, yeah. Tony Kynaston: be eliminated from Iran, [00:01:00] and Cameron Reilly: Mm Tony Kynaston: KO event, hasn’t it? Cameron Reilly: mm Well, as I said to you in the last show, I think he’s just buying time to get troops in position so they can land on island, do whatever else they’re gonna do. At the same time, probably massive parallel. Bombing campaign of the mainland while they try and get troops on Har Island, but, um, or wipe out Har Island. I don’t know what his idea is. Who knows? Tony Kynaston: Yeah. I am not sure if Har Islands a destination. It could be, but it’s, it’s also possible they’re gonna go after the drone, the drone sites or drone manufacturers with boots on the ground. So who knows? And look, you know, it’s, um. A lot of people are suffering through this, so Cameron Reilly: Hmm. Tony Kynaston: gotta shout out to anybody out there who is where, um, I’m thinking of you anyway, hopefully you get Cameron Reilly: Well my Iranian friends are all for it. You know, they, they think it’s the, it’s fantastic what’s going on. ’cause they wanted to see the end of the [00:02:00] regime and they figured this is the only way it would happen is through some sort of foreign intervention. But I’m always like, y you know, it’s never worked. Foreign re regime change never works out well. And if. It was gonna work out well. You don’t want Netanyahu and Trump being the guys that are orchestrating, it’s like the worst possible scenario, uh, these two clowns, uh, trying to run it. But anyway, here’s what it is. Tony Kynaston: Yeah. Well, and, and also too, the Wall Street Journal was reporting today that uh, a lot of the dissidents who’d been rounded up and put in prison who would lead regime change were almost bombed, um, recently. So that’s not a good way to get regime change. It’s to bomb all the people who were in mon bla who could do it. Cameron Reilly: Yeah, and guys like the, uh, the foreign minister Lani, um, who was, they thought was [00:03:00] gonna be the reasonable, moderate, you know, relatively moderate guy. They killed him. So that’s not gonna happen. Anyway, back to investing. So it’s obviously been another turbulent week in the markets. The oil price has gone through the roof, came back a little bit yesterday. Where? Or last night? Our time when Trump said that he’d decided the 48 hour timeline. Wasn’t that Mabb hard of a timeline after all, but then when I checked the price an hour or so ago, it, Tony Kynaston: negotiations and the Iranian said what? Cameron Reilly: yeah. Yeah. Well there are different stories coming out of Iran today. Some say there’s no discussions, some say there are discussions sort of happening, three or four steps removed. I think the US is talking to Turkey, turkey’s, talking to Iran, something like that. It’s uh, impossible to know what the truth is. [00:04:00] There’s lies and propaganda. Well, no one really knows. Um, what’s happening to the Ayatollah Kama Khomeini? Uh, I’ve heard that he’s in a coma. I’ve heard that he’s injured, but it’s not threat life threatening that he’s conscious. He’s just in a bunker. I’ve, there’s all sorts of different stories coming out of Iran. No one really knows again. Tony Kynaston: Fog of war. Cameron Reilly: Yeah, Tony Kynaston: Mm. Cameron Reilly: again, what we do know is that, uh, over the course of the last week, the s and p is down. All the indexes are down. Uh, recovered a little bit in the last 24 hours, but we’re not back to where we were a week ago. And our portfolio, um, our American portfolios, surprisingly not doing too badly actually. Uh, all things considered our US dummy portfolio, the one that’s been running for a couple of years is down about eight. Percent over the last 30 days [00:05:00] versus the s and p 500, which is down about 5%. But if I take the last, uh, year to date, we’re actually still up 17% versus the s and p down 4%. So, you know, relatively speaking, we’re doing all right. If I take all time, we’re up 92% versus the s and p up 48%. That’s going back to September 23. So doing all right, the light portfolio, which I only started the American Light portfolio, I started just before Christmas, a week before Christmas, all time. Well, since then, it’s down 0.25% versus the s and p down 4.3%. So. It’s not, it’s not doing great, but it’s not doing as bad as the index at this stage. And surprisingly, in the last 30 days, the light portfolio is actually up 2.3% versus the s and p [00:06:00] down 4% because we’ve added a number of oil stocks to it in the last month, like Cord Energy, eco Petrol, and Murphy Oil, which are all doing quite well. Uh Tony Kynaston: I guess two comments on that, Kim, if I can. But in, um, the, the first thing is oil could turn around again tomorrow, so those oil Cameron Reilly: Turned down, Tony Kynaston: turn down again. Sorry, those oil stocks might be sales, you know. the other point I wanted to make, and probably the more important one is we don’t know what’s happening with the oil price. We’re not to favor one sector over another. It just happens. We look back in a couple of months or we look back now after a month and say, Hey, we have a lot of all stocks, and weren’t we lucky? Cameron Reilly: hmm. Tony Kynaston: like that, that’s happened to me all the time. E Cameron Reilly: Mm Tony Kynaston: since I’ve been an investor. Last year it was gold stocks. Cameron Reilly: mm Tony Kynaston: we, we don’t know in advance which sector’s gonna be favored. It’s just that we find things to buy in a particular sector [00:07:00] and then we turn around and say, Hey, weren’t we lucky to have those stocks in the portfolio? Cameron Reilly: mm Well, you know, if we look back over the last couple of years I’ve been running the US portfolio, we know we had a lot of shipping companies and financial services companies that we were adding for a while there who have all done very, very well, even though some of them have come back a lot in the last, uh, couple of months, still have had tremendous performance in over international ENVA, which is an online financial services company, is up 130% since we added it. Euro CSEA is up 136%. They’re in the shipping business, obviously with a name like that. Uh, Willis Lee’s Finance Company, uh, not surprisingly, is a finance company. Commercial aircraft and aircraft engines is what they’re mainly involved in. Financing. They’re up still 270% even though they’ve come [00:08:00] back a long way in the last uh, month, they’re still up nearly 300%. So yeah, these were different sectors that our system put us into when these stocks were under value, and we were talking about this on the Australian show, um, when markets are volatile like this, relatively new investors might think the sky is falling and they become chicken little and they panic. But I’ve been doing this show with you now for six or seven years, and I think this is the fourth crisis I’ve seen. In that period of time, you’ve been investing for 35 years and you’ve seen what you say every couple of years, every two years there’s one, right? Yeah. Tony Kynaston: So they’re not, so each crisis is unique in its own way, but then, but the crisis is not unique. Cameron Reill

    29 min

  3. MAR 12

    Viagra for Value Investors (MUR) – QAV AMERICA 43

    In this episode of QAV America, recorded on March 12, 2026, Cameron and Tony navigate a market defined by "Trump Chaos," exploring how a rules-based system provides a psychological anchor during periods of high volatility. The duo discusses the fallout from trade tensions with Spain and the impact of attacks on Qatari LNG infrastructure on global energy prices. The "Pulled Pork" deep dive features **Murphy Oil (MUR)**, a 120-year-old company undergoing a radical transformation from a sprawling integrated petroleum giant into a streamlined, high-margin exploration and production play. Despite a "complexity discount" from the market, the hosts analyze Murphy’s aggressive shareholder return policy—dubbed "Viagra for Value Investors"—and its pivot toward deep-water assets in the "Gulf of Trump" and Vietnam.   This week's full episode is for QAV Club members only. The free episode is available above. Also check out our podcast archives link and our pages on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or watch clips on TikTok. Or visit our homepage to learn more about QAV and how it works as a value investing system that you can learn and apply to beat the market. In this episode of QAV America, recorded on March 12, 2026, Cameron and Tony navigate a market defined by “Trump Chaos,” exploring how a rules-based system provides a psychological anchor during periods of high volatility. The duo discusses the fallout from trade tensions with Spain and the impact of attacks on Qatari LNG infrastructure on global energy prices. The “Pulled Pork” deep dive features Murphy Oil (MUR), a 120-year-old company undergoing a radical transformation from a sprawling integrated petroleum giant into a streamlined, high-margin exploration and production play. Despite a “complexity discount” from the market, the hosts analyze Murphy’s aggressive shareholder return policy—dubbed “Viagra for Value Investors”—and its pivot toward deep-water assets in the “Gulf of Trump” and Vietnam. Episode Timestamps [00:00:00] – Welcome to Episode 43: Market chaos and the Epstein files. [00:01:03] – Portfolio Performance: QAV US up 94% since Sept 2023; tracking Willis Lease Finance (WLFC) and E W Scripps (SSP). [00:03:51] – Chord Energy (CHRD) and the surge in natural gas. [00:04:33] – The “ADR Risk”: Trump’s trade war with Spain and the impact on Spanish stocks. [00:05:41] – Geopolitical Noise: Trump, the Australian Prime Minister, and Iranian soccer. [00:06:23] – Energy Crisis: Attack on Qatar Energy LNG units and the Strait of Hormuz closure. [00:08:50] – The QAV Framework: Why a statistical system beats “predicting” the Middle East. [00:15:10] – Deep Dive (Pulled Pork): Murphy Oil (MUR) – From timber and farming to pure-play E&P. [00:44:45] – After Hours: Murphy’s Law origins, Michael Caine’s Deadly Game, and Scorsese’s Mean Streets. [00:53:45] – The Tupac Documentary: Civil rights, the Black Panthers, and Afeni Shakur. [00:57:45] – Fitness Update: Gemini declares Cameron an “Elite Athlete”. Transcription Cameron: [00:00:00] Welcome to QAV America, Tony, episode 43, timestamp. Tuesday, 10th of March, 2026, Trump has tar again. Tony. It looks, has Tony: he? Cameron: Well, today maybe. Tony: I thought it was mission accomplished. Cameron: Wow. Tony: No one’s looking at the Epstein files. Mission Cameron: accomplished. What was the, what was the mission again? Tony: Distraction. Cameron: Distraction. Yeah. Tony: Not distraction. Distraction Cameron: or arbitrage. Uh, oil price goes up. Oil price comes back down. Somebody’s making money in there somewhere. Mm-hmm. It’s crazy time in the markets, but, uh, as we always say, doesn’t really, well, I mean, it matters, but, uh, from a QAV, from an investing perspective, the system just keeps on chugging along. Mm-hmm. We’re able to ignore the noise, ignore the [00:01:00] volatility, ignore the chaos. We just keep doing what we’re doing and we, if the market’s up, we stick to the system, the market’s down, we stick to the system. It works pretty, pretty well. I’m just looking at our portfolios. The QAV US portfolio that’s been running since September, 2023 is up 94% in that period of time versus the s and p 500, up 53%, but we’ve come down quite a bit in the last. Month. I think for the last 30 days, we’re down four and a half percent versus the s and p down 2.4. Last 12 months we’re up 12 point a half versus the s and p up. 17 point a half, 17.8. But, um, you know, it’s, we were, last six months, we’ve had a lot of growth. We’re up [00:02:00] 13% versus the s and p up four, but it’s, it’s sort of been a little bit chaotic. In the last, mm-hmm. Week or so, um, some of our stocks in the portfolio are doing very well, though Willis Lease Finance is up 276%. Is up 134% and Nova is up 132%. Sarcos Energy navigation is up 111%. Stealth gas is up 95 BLX. The Foreign Trade Bank of Latin America, blade X is up 94. KT is up 44. It’s Korean telecom. Uh, with the light portfolio that I started not that long ago, started it in, uh, the December 20, 25, the 22nd of December, it’s still down one and a half percent versus the s and p down 1.2%. So just neck and neck with that. But some of the stocks are doing quite well. Uh, scripts that I added a couple of weeks [00:03:00] ago, I told you ’cause the stock I was gonna buy became a Josephine, so I added scripts. Uh, it’s up 32% since I bought it two weeks ago. Tony: What do they Cameron: do? Uh, they’re like a publishing company, diverse media enterprise that serves audiences and businesses through a portfolio of more than 60 local television stations. Um, not publishing tv. They also have, Tony: well, media’s dead TVs. Dead network. Television’s dead. Cameron: Yeah. Yeah. Court tv. That must be what it is. Tony: Yeah. Cameron: Uh, uh, they’re, they’re following the Epstein files. I don’t know, cord energy that I added, uh, just recently too is up, uh, 29%. Tony: Hmm. Cameron: These guys are an independent, uh, ex oil exploration company. No. Natural gas, not oil, natural gas. Oh, [00:04:00] crude oil and natural gas. These guys, and we’re gonna talk about another oil company today. Tony: Do you have any Spanish ADRs and that list? Cameron: Ha, we don’t, but we do need to talk about that. So over the last couple of episodes, we’ve been talking about ADRs and the A DR risk. And we had a really good example of how it can play out this week. Uh, Trump announced that he was gonna cut trade with Spain due to Spain’s refusal to let us aircraft stage unilateral strikes on Iran. From military bases within Spanish territory. And, uh, Trump just decided, well, that’s it. We’re gonna crash the Spanish economy for saying no to something that I want. And Spanish stocks got hammered. But, uh, you know, the whole impact of that, if you were investing in Spanish ADR would be pretty dramatic. And, and I, you know, we’ve talked about [00:05:00] this recently too, the whole, um. Attempts in Europe with the WEO to build a credit card system. Yep. Gets ’em off a Visa or MasterCard. Uh, the, the, the ability to decouple from mm-hmm. The US economy for the EU is a big deal right now for exactly this reason. Like Trump is such a. Hothead that uh, he can just crash economies, global economies, European economies, any economy he wants, just with a couple of 3:00 AM truth social posts, because we’re saying on the Australian show last night at about 1:00 AM Australian time, he started badmouthing the Australian Prime Minister for sending the Iranian women’s soccer team back to Iran, which our prime minister wasn’t doing. But Trump had heard that he was started badmouthing him, forcing our prime minister to [00:06:00] get on the phone to Trump at like 2:00 AM our time to assure him that he wasn’t doing that. And in fact, they’d been working on asylum for some of the girls for 48 hours. And the deal had pretty much been done anyway. It’s uh. Another good reason why you suggested last week, we should, uh, avoid buying a DR stocks if possible on the buy list. Yeah. Prioritize the non Tony: ADRs. Yeah. Yeah. Cameron: Um, well, on other news, before I get into my Paul pork this week, Tony, um, we talked about LNG Europe’s natural gas prices jumped about 30% over the last couple of days. In the wake of an attack on Qatar Energy, LNG processing units, um, Qatar supply about 20% of the world’s LNG. A lot of it goes to Asia as well as Europe. And they, uh. A have been attacked, and B, they can’t ship anything [00:07:00] through the straits of mush at the moment because the strait is effectively shut down. And they’ve, uh, they, they’ve got storage issues. You know, they’re not built to store stuff for long term. They’re supposed to be stored, put on a ship and shipped out. They can’t do that. So they’ve, they’re starting to shut down their operations that’s causing, uh. Problems for LNG markets around the world might be good for some of the, uh, LNG providers. Like, I don’t know, cord energy, which is, as I said, up 30% how long that will last though remains to be seen. So, uh, chaos in the markets, Tony, that’s basically it. That’s all I’ve got in terms of. Um, unrelated news is just, it’s just chaos. Tony: Mm. Chaos in the market. Chaos in the Middle East, chaos in oil prices, gas prices. Cameron: Say what you want about Trump, but he [00:08:00] brings the chaos. Tony: Yep. Just like star it in. Get smart. Cameron: Yeah. Um, I, but I, you know, I said this before, I said this in our last show. As an investor, having a system to follow during turbulent times, d

    30 min

  4. MAR 8

    Drilling for Value (NBR) – QAV AMERICA 42

    In this episode, recorded on March 3, 2026, Cameron and Tony navigate a “punch-drunk” week for the markets following the escalation of war in the Middle East. They discuss how the QAV system provides a stress-free mechanical roadmap—buy, sell, or hold—regardless of geopolitical chaos. The duo reviews the US portfolio’s impressive 106% gain since late 2023 and examines why shipping stocks like Euroseas (ESEA) and Danaos (DAC) are surprisingly resilient despite maritime blockades. The centerpiece is a “Pulled Pork” deep dive into Nabors Industries (NBR), tracing its lineage from the legendary Guggenheim family’s Chilean nitrate empire to its modern status as a debt-laden, asset-rich “zombie” drilling for the Saudis. Finally, they touch on the “MagaMyMan” PolyMarket scandal and the importance of letting a value portfolio “churn” through its duds to find the long-term winners. Episode Timestamps [00:00] Introduction: Recording on March 3, 2026; the reality of being a “novice” after six years. [00:50] The QAV System in Wartime: How rules-based investing reduces stress during the Middle East conflict. [02:45] The Black Belt Mentality: Using Kung Fu as a benchmark for investing mastery. [05:20] Portfolio Performance Update: US Portfolio up 106% vs S&P 500 up 55%. [06:15] Shipping Sector Resilience: Why Euroseas (ESEA) and StealthGas (GASS) are climbing despite the crisis. [08:00] Korean ADR Slump: Recent dips in Korea Electric Power (KEP) and Korea Telecom (KT). [08:45] The QAV Light Winners: Success with E.W. Scripps (SSP). [09:45] Exit: Volaris (VLRS): Selling the Mexican budget airline due to cartel violence and earnings misses. [12:40] New Addition: Danaos (DAC): Adding the Greek container ship giant to the Light Portfolio. [14:40] Deep Dive: Nabors Industries (NBR): The history of the 74-year-old drilling giant. [43:00] PolyMarket & “Maga My Man”: Discussing the prediction market scandal and insider trading rumors. [46:00] Closing Thoughts: Why value portfolios take time to “ramp up” and find their 15-20 winners. Transcription   Cameron: [00:00:00] Welcome back to QAV America. This is episode 42. We’re recording this on the 3rd of March. Australian time, 2026. If you are brand new, welcome. We are two Australians talking about value investing. Tony’s been a value investor for 30 odd years. We’ve been doing a show about value investing in Australia for six or seven years, and now we do one on the American market as well, which we’ve been doing for a bit over a year. How are you today, tk? Tony: Good punch drunk from all the movements in the markets over the weekend? Well, since the weekend. Cameron: Yeah. Well, obviously. Crazy week, uh, middle East War is full on now and it’s. It’s got impacts as of course, for, for investors, but for people that are new to QAV, what you should know is that we have a system, the QAV system that Tony’s developed [00:01:00] over his lifetime of investing that has a bunch of rules that tell us what to do, when to buy, what to buy, what to sell, when to sell. And it’s at times like these that, uh, I think it, it, having a system really makes it, um. Not, I would, I wouldn’t say easy, but less stressful. Uh, because I don’t have to try and predict where the market’s going or what the market’s doing, I don’t have to think very hard at all really about it. As we’ve said, through all of the cycles, we were just saying on the Australian show, since we’ve been doing the show, we had COVID, we had the boom that came. After COVID, we’ve had another crash that happened when interest rates started to go up all over the place and the Ukraine invasion happened in 2022. Then we’ve had another boom period coming out of that in the last eight, nine months, and through all of [00:02:00] those cycles, the up and down cycles, the QAV system just. It tells us what to do, buy, sell, hold, and that’s it. We don’t have to, we don’t have to worry about it. It just, uh, takes us through a step-by-step process of what to do, whether the market’s going up or the market’s going down, or the market’s going sideways. Uh, me as a relatively novice investor don’t need to worry about it. I just need to do what the rules tell me to do, which is a great relief. Tony: When do you stop being a novice investor? ’cause you’ve been doing this for six years now. Cameron: Well, I catch up to you. Tony: Is there a, is there like a bachelor degree and a master’s degree and then a PhD? You right? I Cameron: think so. I think 10. After 10 years I’ll 10 years Tony: a Cameron: novice. Yeah. Yeah. Tony: Because as say you’ve been through plenty of cycles, that’s usually the way that you test someone’s, um, experience in markets. Cameron: Well, I’ve been doing kung fu for nearly five years. I don’t have my black belt at Kung fu yet, so I think Tony: Right. [00:03:00] Cameron: You know, I’m using that as my benchmark. When I get my black belt at kung fu I’ll be able to say, okay, well that took me X number of years, and then I’ll have the equivalent for a QAV black belt. I can be a black belt. Tony: Okay. Cameron: In QAV, but as, as I’ve told you before, at our kung fu school, when you get a black belt, it’s just, you’ve passed basic training. You know, that’s when Tony: Oh, right. Cameron: That’s when the real training starts. So that’s when you can, it’s a bit like Scientology. You’re like, okay, well now you can go to the next level of, uh, QAV. You’ll be able to tell me the secrets, the true secrets of, Tony: uh, and as your, what is your water bottle? Does it stay in your water bottle at Kung? Cameron: Hold on while I overthink this. Yeah, yeah. Tony: Uh, which is the of qd, I think too. Don’t overthink things. Cameron: Yeah. I also have a sticker on my Kungfu water bottle that says a black belt is a white belt who never quit. And I think it’s the same as true of investing. We were just talking about that. We’ve had members of our Australian, [00:04:00] uh, QAV club that have been with us for five years and they’ve been through a few cycles as well. And they know that if they’ve just don’t quit, the market turns around and, and things look great. Tony: Mm-hmm. Cameron: Uh, so obviously let’s get back to the war. So from an investing perspective. Uh, I’m trying to pay attention to what is this gonna mean for things like oil and gas and gold? Because we have investments in companies. We don’t invest in resources directly with Q QAV, but we invest in a lot of companies that are involved in oil and gas and gold among other resources. Also, in our US portfolio, we have a lot of companies that are. Transport of oil related shipping companies, et cetera. So I was really interested, uh, to see what was gonna happen with those stocks, uh, this week. [00:05:00] And of course the oil price is going up. Gas is going up a little bit, but oil is going up a lot. But if I look at the shipping stocks that we’ve got. Uh, in the US portfolio, by the way, the US portfolio, I’ve been running now since, I think it was late 2023. September, 2023. It’s currently up 106%. In that period versus the s and p 500, up 55%, slightly less than 55%. So we’re doing almost double markets, uh, over that period of time, which is two and two and a half years roughly. If I look at the last, um. 30 days, our portfolio is up about 4% versus the s and p 500, which is down 1.3%. But we’ve got, [00:06:00] uh, uh, quite a few finance and shipping companies in the portfolio. Um, ESEA, Euro Cs, which is, uh, doing okay. I’m trying to just bring up its, uh, poor network connection. You still there? Tony: Yeah. Cameron: Okay. Tony: It’s good down here. Cameron: Yeah. Um, Euroes has, uh, gone up since the, uh, weekend it’s gone. It was trading at $61 as of, uh, the 23rd of February. It’s now up at $70. So it’s had a good week. Um. What else have I got here? Sarcos Energy Navigation. Oh my God. It was trading at $30 on the 23rd of February. It’s now at [00:07:00] $37. Uh, stealth gas. Was trading at uh, $8. It’s now trading at $8 68. Gone up a bit. So the shipping companies have done relatively well. Surprisingly, uh, with all of this, I would’ve thought with the straits of ho Moose being shut down, we may have seen shipping companies getting battered, but. For whatever reason, which I don’t claim to understand, that hasn’t kicked in yet. They’re doing okay. Tony: Yeah, I think, I think the conventional reason, I don’t know if it’s the case now, um, is that, uh, if there’s a blockage in anywhere in the world of shipping and mean ships have to travel longer, they basically charge more. Um Cameron: Oh, okay. Tony: Right. They’re in like a revenue. Per mile type, [00:08:00] um, cost structure or um, fee structure. So that’s one of the reasons I think, Cameron: well, I’ll tell you what hasn’t done well in the last week, uh, is some of our Korean stocks career, electric power. You know, we talked a lot about ADR and the implications. Mm-hmm. Complications of ADRs last week, crew electric powers dropped from $22 down to 1966 in the last week. Uh, kt, which is Korea Telecom, has also well slid a little bit from $24 50 down to 2350. Uh, not sure what’s going on with them and in our QAV lip portfolio. Oh, this is a classic. Do you remember last week I did a deep dive on Bread Financial Holdings? Tony: Yes. Cameron: But I said that as I was preparing for that, I was gonna add them to our QAV light portfolio. But, uh, then noticed [00:09:00] that they were, uh, what we call a Josephine, the share price was going

    55 min

  5. FEB 28

    Breaking Bread (BFH) – QAV AMERICA 41

    In this episode of QAV America, Cameron and Tony navigate the “completely bonkers” landscape of 2026, where a Supreme Court reversal on Trump’s previous tariffs and the looming shadow of AI bubbles have left investors guessing. The duo breaks down the hidden “gotchas” of American Depository Receipts (ADRs), specifically examining the tax hurdles and custody fees associated with South Korean plays like Shinhan Financial Group (SHG) and Korea Electric Power (KEP). The centerpiece of the episode is a “Pulled Pork” deep dive into Bread Financial (BFH)—a high-yielding, unloved credit card “stub” that has spent years amputating its legacy loyalty businesses to emerge as a pure-play lender. Despite the “Trump Slump” threat of capped interest rates and a “stinky” past involving a bankrupt spin-off, BFH boasts a massive QAV quality score and looks dirt cheap on a price-to-cash-flow basis. Episode Timestamps [00:00:00] Introduction: Value investing in the North American market. [00:00:50] SCOTUS vs. Tariffs: The impact on Learning Resources Inc. and the $260 billion repayment mystery. [00:02:15] The AI Bubble: Data center capital costs and the Mag Seven depreciation talk. [00:08:45] ADR Deep Dive: Navigating fees and taxes for Shinhan Financial Group (SHG). [00:13:50] Performance Check: Korea Electric Power (KEP) up 31% and Zepp Health Corp (ZEPP) up 665%. [00:15:30] Pulled Pork Scorecard: Win ratios and Ford Motor Company (F) resilience. [00:16:30] Portfolio Winners: Gains in Willis Lease Finance (WLFC), Inter & Co (INTR), and Euroseas (ESEA). [00:18:15] The Finance/Shipping Heavyweight List: Bladex (BLX), StealthGas (GASS), and Korea Telecom (KT). [00:20:45] Deep Dive: Bread Financial (BFH)—The Invisible Store Card engine. Transcription   Cameron: [00:00:00] Welcome back to QAV America Tony, for, uh, new listeners to Australians Value. Investors been talking about value investing on a podcast for years in Australia. Now we’re doing an American version where we talk about the North American market. And we can’t start talking about the North American market, Tony, without talking about Donald Trump and tariffs and SCOTUS and all that kinda stuff this week. So, um. Um, as we, we were talking a little bit about it on our Australian show that we just finished, but as everyone knows, uh, the Supreme Court overturned trump’s, uh, tariffs that he had implemented a year or so ago under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which the Supreme Court said, nah, you can’t do that. That doesn’t work. The company that took it. All the way up to the [00:01:00] Supreme Court was Learning Resources Inc. A relatively small family owned maker of educational toys, uh, that said it was going to increase their. Tariff costs 44 times and that there was no way they could survive and afford to cover that. They didn’t have the capital to front run the tariffs. They couldn’t relocate their manufacturing quickly. Like bigger companies might’ve been able to, and uh, Trump called them. Dirty sleaze bags or just sleaze bags and unpatriotic unpatriotic sleaze bags. How dare you tell me that? The illegal thing that I did was illegal. You’re sleaze bags, major sleaze bags. Yes. And as I said in the last show, when some. [00:02:00] When somebody who’s been found guilty of sexual assault calls you a slee bag, slee major sleighs bag, you know, well, you’ve got problems. You need to take a long, hard look in the mirror, sir. Um, anyway, so what that means, uh, how they’re going to pay back the $260 billion in tariffs that they collected in 2025, uh, uh, remains to be seen. No one knows what it means, and he’s went immediately hit. Every country in the world with a 15% global tariff. No one knows what that means. No one knows what’s going on. It’s just completely bonkers. Completely, completely bonkers. But, you know, you and I were talking at the end of the Australian show about what AI is gonna do, and it’s, there’s you, you talked a lot on the last show about. Um, which you can talk about again if you want, on this show about the, uh, depreciation of capital costs for the mag [00:03:00] seven. Do you wanna do your little talk about that again?[00:04:00] [00:05:00] [00:06:00] Yeah. And you know, a lot of people are calling out the fact that the amount of revenue that these businesses are gonna have to generate in order to pay back all of this money that they’re raising for building data centers. It’s hard to see how that’s gonna happen. A lot of people are calling it an AI bubble, and, uh, yeah, the counter argument to that is, well. It’s pretty certain that AI is gonna be something and somebody’s gonna make [00:07:00] something, some money out of it. Although it also, the counter argument to that is that it can completely collapse socioeconomics as we know it and everyone loses their jobs and that creates recessions, depressions, uh, that could trickle, that could, you know, we could never recover from The point you and I were making on the show before was that. With Trump and the tariffs and with AI bubbles and all of this kinda stuff, no one knows, no one has any idea what the future looks like right now. So all we can do as investors is just keep doing what has worked in the past, which as far as we’re concerned, is by a dollar for 50 cents. And, uh, just until things change, so. Yeah. Until things change. And then when things change, we’ll [00:08:00] reassess. Reevaluate. Yeah. But right now we just keep doing what we’ve always been doing, which has worked pretty well so far. Double market returns for as long as anyone’s been tracking value investing. Yeah. Well, we’ll see. Meanwhile, we’ll just keep doing what we’re doing. Um. Last week on the show, we were talking about Shinhan Financial Group, and that raised the issue of ADRs yet again. American [00:09:00] Depository Receipts. And I did do a shout out when I did my Reddit post on Shinhan. I invited people to share their views on ADRs with me. No one replied, so I spent some time in. Uh, so I did, um, spend some time in Gemini working through it, and I’m gonna try and summarize my understanding of it as quickly as possible. So there’s a couple of gotchas here as I understand it. One is that there are. Cus there, there, there are called custody fees that the depository bank charges pass through fees for servicing the A DR. These are typically about two to 5 cents per share [00:10:00] annually. So depending on the value of the share, you gotta keep that in mind. There’s also dividend processing when SHG, for example, pays a dividend, the depository bank takes a cut. Often one to 3% of the dividend amount for converting the currency and distributing the funds so you don’t get the full value of the dividend. Then you’ve got the tax issues. Uh, this is apparently where most US investors end up taking a bit of a haircut if they didn’t plan for it. In, in the South Korean case with FSHG, the statutory withholding tax on dividends for non-residents is 22%, which includes a 2% local inhabitant tax. Then you’ve got the US Korea Tax Treaty. Under the current treaty, US residents can typically have this reduced to 15%. However, you have to get your broker to apply the treaty rate at the source, which is apparently notoriously difficult for retail [00:11:00] investors. You can usually claim a foreign tax credit on your US tax return using something called a Form 1 1 1 6. But this only offsets your US tax liability. So if you hold SHG in an IRA or a 401k, you might not be able to reclaim the 15 to 22% at all because those accounts are tax exempt and aren’t recognized as such by Korean tax authorities. So you’re missing out on that dividend altogether in that case. Then you’ve got the currency and exchange issues that I mentioned last week. Even if, say, SSHG stock rises by 5%, if the one continues to weaken against the US D or A DR could be flat when you go Tony (2): sell it, the of [00:12:00] in the Although that hasn’t been the recently while the one weakens, that can create a double whammy where the local bank stop stock drops and the currency devalues Cameron: simultaneously. But again, it’s just a level of complexity that you have to factor in. Then you’ve got. The Korea discount that we talked about a lot on last week on the show last week. Then you’ve got the geopolitical tail risk, um, in, particularly in South Korea, which is, uh, I dunno if you know this, but it’s very close to North Korea and Tony (2): close to it, Cameron: that’s, they did a good job when they came up with the names of North and South. Yeah, Barry and Stan did a great job and they went, so there’s, you know, there’s this constant as assessment of risk about [00:13:00] the, the, uh, treaty between North and South Korea and what happens there. So, but that’s not really anything to do with the ADRs. That’s just another geopolitical risk with investing in South Korean companies. So, look, there, there are complications. Um. For US investors with ADRs and I, and I don’t know from a QAV perspective how that translates. Does it mean that we should just not look at ADRs in future when we’re building a portfolio? Should we factor them out because of this additional level of complexity or, you know, career electric power is done quite well. It’s um. Up, I think about 30% since we last talked about it. Hold on, let me, um, Tony (2): pull up my Paul pork Cameron: Hmm[00:14:00] hmm. Yeah. Yeah. Career. Mm. And I think with AI in your back pocket now to help you, uh, navigate the a DR complexities, it shouldn’t be that hard. Should be just gimme an email to write to my broker.

    53 min

  6. FEB 20

    SHG – The Seoul of Value: QAV AMERICA 40

    In this episode of QAV America, Cameron and Tony navigate a volatile week in the US markets, lead by Ford’s staggering $8.2 billion loss for 2025 and their strategic retreat from full electrification. The duo reviews the impressive performance of their “deep dive” portfolio, noting that many previously analyzed stocks have seen triple-digit or high double-digit gains. The centerpiece of the episode is a “Pulled Pork” deep dive into **Shinhan Financial Group ($SHG)**, a South Korean banking giant. Despite a litany of scandals involving cartel-like collusion, fraud, and political instability in Korea, the hosts weigh the risks against the “Value Up” government catalyst that may finally unlock the company’s depressed valuation. — Episode Timestamps **[00:00:00]* – Introduction and the state of the US market. **[00:00:48]* – **Ford ($F)**: Analysis of the $8.2 billion loss and the pivot away from EVs. **[00:04:41]* – Portfolio Review    **[00:12:15]* – Deep Dive (Pulled Pork): **Shinhan Financial Group ($SHG)* history and Korean banking. **[00:48:38]* – Tribute: Remembering Robert Duvall. Transcription   Cameron: [00:00:00] Welcome to QAV America, Tony. This is episode 40, uh, for brand new listeners. Welcome. This is a show where we talk about value investing in the US markets. You might notice from our accent. That we are not accents, that we are not Americans. We are Australian value investors that have been doing a podcast about value investing in Australia for many years. And these days we do also do one about the American market because why not? And, uh, it’s been an interesting week, Tony, in the American markets. Ford reported their worst quarterly earnings in four years on Tuesday, and a net loss of $8.2 billion for 2025. What’s $8.2 billion between friends, Tony? Tony: Is this part of the great ev write down? I’ve been reading about all the, uh, EV manufacturers are getting back into producing V [00:01:00] eight cars Cameron: Yeah. Drill, baby drill. Tony: Yeah, yeah, Cameron: Yes. Tony: of companies riding down their ev. Investments Cameron: is, Tony: off E investments. Cameron: This is their largest loss since the 2008 recession. At least 4.8 billion of it was due to the EV division. Tony: Yeah. Cameron: Article I’ve got says E uh, electric vehicle sales were battered and previous corporate plans were shattered. Oh, look at that. That’s nice. Battered and shattered Tony: Yeah. Cameron: across the industry this year following the. Tony: how I like my fish and chips. Cameron: Following the Trump administration’s push to slash a seven and half thousand federal EV tax credit that was signed into law by former President Biden in 2022. Ford was one of many automakers committed to an electrified future that was hit hard by the decision. In response, the company said that it will. Pivot from full electrification to partial [00:02:00] electrification, and in December announced a major set scale back of its electrical vehicle, pla electric vehicle plans, which included killing the electric pickup truck, F-150 Lightning. I think the customer has spoken. That’s the punchline. Ford, CEO. Jim Farley said in an earnings call on Tuesday, I think uh, Donald Trump has spoken more than the customer. Tony: Yeah, I Cameron: Mm-hmm. Tony: Well, aren’t there, isn’t there, hasn’t there been a wine back of tax credits as well for EV cars? So a way, the customer has spoken ’cause they’re not buying EVs unless they get a tax rebate for it. Cameron: Yeah, Tony: Yeah. Cameron: Uh, in the absence of a tax credit, Ford and other automakers such as GM are betting on two things to spur customer demand in the us affordability and autonomous driving. At the core of that plan is a $30,000 electric vehicle with eyes off driving that Flo Ford plans to unveil in 2028. Tony: oh my God, it’s like. We’ll pivot to EVs. [00:03:00] pivot back to Hemis. pivot to driverless cars. It’s Cameron: Well, they gotta do something Tony: it if it’s their own money, would they be doing that Cameron: well. Tony: money? Sure. 8 billion. Cameron: What’s 8 billion? Tony: Yeah. Cameron: While the American EV industry suffers Chinese electric vehicle giants enjoy government subsidies that give them at times dangerously good pricing power. Chinese EVs. Yeah. Dangerous to who? Chinese EVs go for unbelievably low prices. And while they’re not allowed to be imported into the United States, the low pricing has made it very tough for American EV makers to compete elsewhere in the world. Even long-term American Ally Canada decided last month to allow Chinese EV imports. Tony: Well, I’m glad that the America’s calling Canada a long term ally now and not 51st state or, or worse. Cameron: Gizmodo. I don’t think that’s how Donald Trump would refer to them, but Tony: Yeah. Cameron: bunch of Commies is probably how he’d [00:04:00] refer to them. Um, so I did a deep dive on Ford on episode six of this show back on the 21st of May, 2025. The share price is up 30.7% since then, so Tony: pivoting is good. Cameron: it’s done okay. Despite all of this that’s even taken into account. Uh, this new loss announcement, there were $10 80 when I talked about ’em. There are $14 12 at the moment, so yeah, it’s okay. Tony: Oh yeah. And for a large cap company, it’s pretty good. Cameron: Everyone told me I was crazy when I talked about that one back then. Tony: Too much Cameron: Yeah, 30% less than a year. Not too bad. Looking at the other companies that we’ve talked about over the last year on the show, um, Zim Integrated Shipping was the first we did back in March of 2025. It’s up 23% since then. I’ll do ’em in the [00:05:00] in episode order. Um, CX ChemX is up 122%. Dac. DACD, AOS Corporation, big Greek Shipping Company, up 31% Canadian, Imperial and Bank of Commerce. Speaking about their great ally, up 50%. NL Chile is up 6.3. Ford’s up 30 IHS holding up 54. Jackson Financial, up 37 Orx Corporation, up 73. Precis Precision Drilling up 82. POSCO Holdings up 35 Zep. Health Corporation up 682%. Sasol up 59. Bausch Health is down five. Seneca Foods up 25. Gray Media up six Titan Machinery down 0.1. Kimball Electronics down 15.9 Sno up 15 methane X up. 22 community health systems up 13 Cow Main foods [00:06:00] down. 12 dous, which was a XL up. 17 American Airlines has gone nowhere. Topgolf is up 18.8. Pg and e is up 15.9. KA career, electric Power, doing another Korean company. Today it’s up 28%. It’s air cap is up 14. Veil is up 29.1%. Z Davis is down 16. A MC is down 20. Zfa is up. Six is up. 6.6 Tony: Is that the bad money of our Cameron: VLRS, the bad bunny. Tony: Yeah. Cameron: Why is it a bad bunny? Tony: Well he went on the Super Bowl halftime Cameron: Oh, Tony: sung everything in in Cameron: oh God. I didn’t even make that connection. I’m so outta the loop on, uh, super Bowl halftime shows. I watched the Prince Super Bowl halftime show from 2007 last night. That was pretty good. A MTD is down a little bit. Tony: when it Cameron: It did. It’s [00:07:00] raining. And not only is he playing guitar and singing, but he has two dancing girls in stiletto heels. Dancing with like an inch of water on the platform. I’m, like I said, Chrissy, how is that not a health and safety risk? Anyway, the por the, uh, the deep dive stocks are doing pretty well. Um, let me, let me just also, uh, talk about the, uh, portfolio while I’m here. The actual QAV America portfolio. Uh, last week when we talked about it, it was up about a hundred percent. Um, as of today, it’s up 101.36% since inception, which is September 23 versus the s and p 500, which is up about 50% over the same period of time, 50 53, 54. So doing about double market. Um, [00:08:00] since then. Tony: And no gas strips to be seen. Cameron: Yeah, I wrote an article last week sort of comparing, uh, astrophysics to, uh, value investing and I said that we tend to invest in large planets companies with a lot of mass, a lot of gravity, gravity being cash flow masses, cash. Not gas giants that are all hype and speed and momentum and shiny and look pretty, but don’t actually have a functioning ecosystem yet. Uh, yeah, we don’t have any gas giants. Um, in the last, well, let’s see, year to date, uh, well that’s not a very good analogy. The last 12 months were sort of neck and neck with the s and p around about 20%. But, uh. You know, the last, we’ll say three months, we’re up about 25% versus the index up about one and a half. Actually, we’re 26 point a half versus one point a half. So it’s been a really good, it’s actually just since the [00:09:00] beginning of the year, since the beginning of January, which is, I know just a month and a bit now, six weeks, we’re up 20, 23% in six weeks versus the s and p 500 negative. 0.14%. So, uh, things are going well. And one of the companies that’s been doing well is in my news, I’ve, uh, did a news report this morning of some of our stocks, Latino’s, the other bad money in our portfolio, BLX. Reported record earnings for 2025 with significant growth in net income and portfolio alongside a strong fourth quarter performance. 2025 net income increased 10% year over year to 227 million. Fourth quarter net income of 56 million marking one of the strongest quarters in their history. So, uh, good on BLX. [00:10:00] Um, what else have I got? Oh, Renaissance r and r. They’re also in our portfolio, they’re up about 15%. Uh, they said that their, uh, reported earnings exceed analyst estimates indicating a positive operational performance. Um, 29.6 year on year growth, they reported. So, uh, yeah, that’s g

    52 min

  7. FEB 13

    TUSK – The Cobra’s Bite – QAV AMERICA 39

    In this high-stakes episode, Cameron and Tony celebrate a “bonkers” run for the QAV America portfolio, which is currently outperforming the S&P 500 by nearly double. After reviewing news on Seneca Foods (SENEA) and the curious 15% share price drop for Regional Management (RM) following record earnings, the duo dives into the murky waters of Mammoth Energy Services (TUSK). What begins as a look at an energy services “roll-up” quickly transforms into a true-crime corporate thriller involving a $1.8 billion contract, a FEMA bribery scandal, and a forfeited 40-foot luxury catamaran. They analyze whether TUSK is a “mammoth in the making” or a “wild pig,” weighing its current status as a cash-heavy “stub” with zero debt against its history of “dirty stories” and its new pivot into aviation rentals and fiber optics. — Episode Timestamps [00:00:00] Intro: Market “conniptions” and the US sneezing on Australia. [00:00:50] Portfolio Performance: The dummy portfolio hits 103% since inception (Highlights: WLFC, BLX, ESCA, GASS). [00:05:40] Stock News: SENEA (Seneca Foods) Q3 results show improving margins. [00:06:20] Stock News: RM (Regional Management) beats expectations but the share price craters. [00:07:50] Deep Dive: TUSK (Mammoth Energy Services) Transcription   Cameron: [00:00:00] Welcome back to QAV America, Tony. This is episode 38 of QAV America. Been a turbulence week, weak in the American markets. Bitcoin is down, gold and silver are down. New Fed chairman nominee sell. America Trades are still going on. The president of the United States are suing the United States government for $10 billion. Nothing to see here. Jeffrey Epstein. Millions of files released. Oh wow. It’s a lot to keep up with. One of the good things about QAV is we don’t have to keep up with it. Tony Kynaston: correct and, and of course the Melania Trump, uh, premier. Cameron: Uh, and, uh, Jeffrey Epstein, not, not in it as, from what I can tell. I, I don’t understand. Anyway, Tony Kynaston: Bezos. You [00:01:00] think $40 million would give you a walk on cameo or you’d it in front of the blue rocket or something, wouldn’t you? Cameron: meanwhile, Elon Musk is merging SpaceX and X ai, uh, news is today, Tony Kynaston: Uhhuh. Cameron: I think SpaceX’s building is buying Twitter or taking over Twitter and x ai, which is part of that, uh, something, something I don’t understand. It’s all going on. Microsoft’s share price are down. Ai, the Mag seven share prices are down, but they’ve been down before. Tony Kynaston: guy? Cameron: Well, I’m glad you asked Tony. Our portfolio is doing Doing okay. Doing okay. Let me, let me bring it up and we can talk about it in some detail. I did have to sell, uh, a couple of stocks out of QAV Light, the new light portfolio yesterday. I’ll get into that in a second. But the [00:02:00] dummy portfolio that I’ve been running on in the US since September, 2023 is, has returned 98.41% since then. So it’s doubled in little over two years versus the s and p 500, which is up 57% over that same timeframe. So not quite doing double market, but pretty close to double market and. It’s really boomed since, um, well let’s see, as of 19th of November last year we were neck and neck. We’d been up, we’d come back. We were neck and neck with the s and p about November last year. So it’s broken away since then. Doing very well the last couple of months, two months, two and a half months, absolutely killing it. Um, [00:03:00] just to give you a sense, our rockstar Willis Lee’s finance company currently sitting at about 300% gain Innova, which is actually in my news items today. Uh, I’ll get to that in a minute. It’s up 188%. Euro, CS ESEA is up a hundred percent. Uh, BLX Foreign Trade, bank of Latin America up a hundred percent. Regional management are up 66%. Gas, stealth gas transport, shipping company up 60% UBS also in the news today, up 55%. So yeah, doing, doing quite well across the board. The QAV light portfolio, as I mentioned, I sold a couple of stocks this week. I just decided they’d hit their three point trend line and I’d given up, I dumped them. So that was, um, A MTD idea, dear that we talked about a little while ago. Calvin Cho’s Company, they [00:04:00] breached their three point trend line and spider net and, um, XL PR infrastructure, X-I-F-R-Z-A. Um, they also breached their three point trend line. So rules are rules. Tony Kynaston: yeah. Cameron: thing about QAV, we have rules tell us what to do. Sold those. And I have bought, uh, the stock that I’m gonna do a deep dive on today. Ec eco petrol sa out of Colombia. Tony Kynaston: Not, Cameron: am, Tony Kynaston: not eco petrol as in it’s green petrol. It’s Ecuadorian petrol, maybe Cameron: no, they’re very eco, very eco-friendly, very, oh, no one has ever been more eco-friendly than these guys, Tony. They’re the most eco-friendly company you’ve ever seen. Tony Kynaston: Or company. You Cameron: Well, they are Tony Kynaston: don’t Cameron: see. They are, Tony Kynaston: look at those wells over there. [00:05:00] Look over here. Plenty of windows over here. Cameron: listen. As Barry and Stan would say, um, if you don’t have oil, you don’t have energy. If you don’t have energy, you can’t, you know, you can’t drive tractors to plant trees, Tony Kynaston: Oh right. Cameron: you know, yeah, it’s, it’s oil is there to grow trees. Um, couple of news updates in Nova I mentioned they’ve come out with their Q4 figures revenue of 839.4 million, up 15.1%, year on year, adjusted EPS of 3.46 or $3 46, exceeding estimates by 9.1%. Record originations in small business lending for eighth consecutive [00:06:00] quarters, and pending acquisition of Grasshopper Bank. Aimed at expanding market access and simplifying regulation. Um, I watched a Bruce Lee documentary over the weekend Be Water, and of course they talked about his script that he wrote called Warrior and took to Hollywood about, uh, Kung Fu Master Walking the Earth. And they were like, nah, don’t like it. And then they came out with David Carradine and Kung Fu as Grasshopper. Tony Kynaston: I wonder how Cameron: They, Tony Kynaston: how, how many writers there are out there who submitted things to Hollywood got rejected, and then five years later, see it up in lights on the big screen. Cameron: well, the thing is with Bruce, uh, Bruce knew that the big concern was they, they didn’t want him in it, right? They, they, they didn’t think you could have a Chinese American starring [00:07:00] in a role in 19. 70, 71, whatever it was. Sad thing about the documentary is a, after he got frustrated with his inability to break through to anything in Hollywood, went to Hong Kong, made four movies in two years, and then like five days before enter the dragon was due to launch, uh, which was kind of a co-production with Hollywood and Raymond Chow. Uh, he died and, but then they show you the opening of it at the Groman’s Chinese Theater in la Just Bruce Lee everywhere. Massive. Like his dream he had finally done it. Had to go to Hong, back to Hong Kong. Cracked the whole Hollywood thing downtown. Groman’s Chinese Theater. La Bruce Lee is Stars Inn. And he wasn’t alive to see it. He died five days before, you know, he had [00:08:00] achieved his. And you know, you look at him today and he really did have such a huge influence on the, the, there was a girl at my Kung Fu studio last, oh no, she said she saw a Nip Man film. She came along, but you know, his, his influence on people studying martial arts and on martial arts in films and the perception, the portrayal of Asians in American TV and cinema. Anyway, how’d I get onto that? Grasshopper bank. Tony Kynaston: no idea. Cameron: Grasshopper Bank Kain of Kung fu, uh, UBS group also, uh, uh, again, announced their Q4 uh, earnings with projected increase in earnings per share, despite a decline in revenues year over year. Uh, earnings estimate is 25 cents per share, indicating an 8.7% increase year over year quarterly revenue expected to decline to 11.62 billion. Strong performance in global wealth management and investment banking is [00:09:00] anticipated. So little bit of a mixed bag there for UBS group. Um, so we, we talked a little bit on the Australian show this week, Tony, about gold and Bitcoin. I did have a laugh at Bitcoin’s expense. Bitcoin has doubled in value over the last five years. It went up and then it came back. Gold and silver and the process of coming back, but they’ve still, you know, had a really good run. But we’ve talked before a lot over the years about these things as a store of value. And I was having this discussion with somebody at Kung Fu the other night. He asked me about Bitcoin, you know, what do you think about Bitcoin? And I was like. You know, it’s a pump and dump. Pretty much. That’s my take on it. Um, but this whole idea of, uh, a store of value, you know, despite what you might think about the inherent properties of cryptocurrencies, uh, versus fear [00:10:00] currencies or the inherent value in gold, uh, something that can be used in jewelry or something that can be used in electronics or a store of value. The challenge that I have, I always try and point out to people as somebody who has learnt from you to try and think about investing rationally, is the question I have to ask myself before I can invest in anything is what is the value of one unit of this thing, whether it’s a share or a coin or a gram, and can I buy it at a discount to its value today? Um, and I can’t figure out how to come up with a value for a coin or a gram of gold. What is the inherent value? I mean, it’s e

    51 min

  8. FEB 6

    EC: Pump and Dump – QAV AMERICA 38

    In this episode, Cameron and Tony navigate a turbulent week in the American markets, touching on the downturn of Bitcoin, gold, and the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks. Despite the macro-volatility, they celebrate the continued outperformance of their US dummy portfolio, which has nearly doubled its value since September 2023. The conversation shifts to a critical look at “stores of value” like Bitcoin and gold, with Tony arguing that without an inherent way to calculate intrinsic value, these assets remain speculative “pump and dump” cycles. The centerpiece of the show is a deep dive into the Colombian oil giant, **Ecopetrol (EC)**. The duo explores its unique monopoly on Colombian pipelines and its strategic pivot into high-voltage electricity transmission, all while navigating the “magical realism” of Colombian politics, executive scandals involving “cost-plus” prostitution, and a president who hates the very oil industry his government owns. — ### Episode Timestamps * **[00:00:00]** – Market Turbulence: Bitcoin, Gold, and the Mag 7. * **[00:01:20]** – Corporate News: Elon Musk’s SpaceX and xAI merger. * **[00:01:50]** – Portfolio Update: US Dummy Portfolio vs. S&P 500. * **[00:03:15]** – Recent Sells: Exiting **AMTD** (AMTD IDEA) and **XIFR** (XLPR Infrastructure). * **[00:09:45]** – The Rationality of Gold and Bitcoin: Searching for intrinsic value. * **[00:15:30]** – Deep Dive: **Ecopetrol SA** (EC) – History and the “De Mares Concession”. Transcription   Cameron: [00:00:00] Welcome back to QAV America, Tony. This is episode 38 of QAV America. Been a turbulence week, weak in the American markets. Bitcoin is down, gold and silver are down. New Fed chairman nominee sell. America Trades are still going on. The president of the United States are suing the United States government for $10 billion. Nothing to see here. Jeffrey Epstein. Millions of files released. Oh wow. It’s a lot to keep up with. One of the good things about QAV is we don’t have to keep up with it. Tony Kynaston: correct and, and of course the Melania Trump, uh, premier. Cameron: Uh, and, uh, Jeffrey Epstein, not, not in it as, from what I can tell. I, I don’t understand. Anyway, Tony Kynaston: Bezos. You [00:01:00] think $40 million would give you a walk on cameo or you’d it in front of the blue rocket or something, wouldn’t you? Cameron: meanwhile, Elon Musk is merging SpaceX and X ai, uh, news is today, Tony Kynaston: Uhhuh. Cameron: I think SpaceX’s building is buying Twitter or taking over Twitter and x ai, which is part of that, uh, something, something I don’t understand. It’s all going on. Microsoft’s share price are down. Ai, the Mag seven share prices are down, but they’ve been down before. Tony Kynaston: guy? Cameron: Well, I’m glad you asked Tony. Our portfolio is doing Doing okay. Doing okay. Let me, let me bring it up and we can talk about it in some detail. I did have to sell, uh, a couple of stocks out of QAV Light, the new light portfolio yesterday. I’ll get into that in a second. But the [00:02:00] dummy portfolio that I’ve been running on in the US since September, 2023 is, has returned 98.41% since then. So it’s doubled in little over two years versus the s and p 500, which is up 57% over that same timeframe. So not quite doing double market, but pretty close to double market and. It’s really boomed since, um, well let’s see, as of 19th of November last year we were neck and neck. We’d been up, we’d come back. We were neck and neck with the s and p about November last year. So it’s broken away since then. Doing very well the last couple of months, two months, two and a half months, absolutely killing it. Um, [00:03:00] just to give you a sense, our rockstar Willis Lee’s finance company currently sitting at about 300% gain Innova, which is actually in my news items today. Uh, I’ll get to that in a minute. It’s up 188%. Euro, CS ESEA is up a hundred percent. Uh, BLX Foreign Trade, bank of Latin America up a hundred percent. Regional management are up 66%. Gas, stealth gas transport, shipping company up 60% UBS also in the news today, up 55%. So yeah, doing, doing quite well across the board. The QAV light portfolio, as I mentioned, I sold a couple of stocks this week. I just decided they’d hit their three point trend line and I’d given up, I dumped them. So that was, um, A MTD idea, dear that we talked about a little while ago. Calvin Cho’s Company, they [00:04:00] breached their three point trend line and spider net and, um, XL PR infrastructure, X-I-F-R-Z-A. Um, they also breached their three point trend line. So rules are rules. Tony Kynaston: yeah. Cameron: thing about QAV, we have rules tell us what to do. Sold those. And I have bought, uh, the stock that I’m gonna do a deep dive on today. Ec eco petrol sa out of Colombia. Tony Kynaston: Not, Cameron: am, Tony Kynaston: not eco petrol as in it’s green petrol. It’s Ecuadorian petrol, maybe Cameron: no, they’re very eco, very eco-friendly, very, oh, no one has ever been more eco-friendly than these guys, Tony. They’re the most eco-friendly company you’ve ever seen. Tony Kynaston: Or company. You Cameron: Well, they are Tony Kynaston: don’t Cameron: see. They are, Tony Kynaston: look at those wells over there. [00:05:00] Look over here. Plenty of windows over here. Cameron: listen. As Barry and Stan would say, um, if you don’t have oil, you don’t have energy. If you don’t have energy, you can’t, you know, you can’t drive tractors to plant trees, Tony Kynaston: Oh right. Cameron: you know, yeah, it’s, it’s oil is there to grow trees. Um, couple of news updates in Nova I mentioned they’ve come out with their Q4 figures revenue of 839.4 million, up 15.1%, year on year, adjusted EPS of 3.46 or $3 46, exceeding estimates by 9.1%. Record originations in small business lending for eighth consecutive [00:06:00] quarters, and pending acquisition of Grasshopper Bank. Aimed at expanding market access and simplifying regulation. Um, I watched a Bruce Lee documentary over the weekend Be Water, and of course they talked about his script that he wrote called Warrior and took to Hollywood about, uh, Kung Fu Master Walking the Earth. And they were like, nah, don’t like it. And then they came out with David Carradine and Kung Fu as Grasshopper. Tony Kynaston: I wonder how Cameron: They, Tony Kynaston: how, how many writers there are out there who submitted things to Hollywood got rejected, and then five years later, see it up in lights on the big screen. Cameron: well, the thing is with Bruce, uh, Bruce knew that the big concern was they, they didn’t want him in it, right? They, they, they didn’t think you could have a Chinese American starring [00:07:00] in a role in 19. 70, 71, whatever it was. Sad thing about the documentary is a, after he got frustrated with his inability to break through to anything in Hollywood, went to Hong Kong, made four movies in two years, and then like five days before enter the dragon was due to launch, uh, which was kind of a co-production with Hollywood and Raymond Chow. Uh, he died and, but then they show you the opening of it at the Groman’s Chinese Theater in la Just Bruce Lee everywhere. Massive. Like his dream he had finally done it. Had to go to Hong, back to Hong Kong. Cracked the whole Hollywood thing downtown. Groman’s Chinese Theater. La Bruce Lee is Stars Inn. And he wasn’t alive to see it. He died five days before, you know, he had [00:08:00] achieved his. And you know, you look at him today and he really did have such a huge influence on the, the, there was a girl at my Kung Fu studio last, oh no, she said she saw a Nip Man film. She came along, but you know, his, his influence on people studying martial arts and on martial arts in films and the perception, the portrayal of Asians in American TV and cinema. Anyway, how’d I get onto that? Grasshopper bank. Tony Kynaston: no idea. Cameron: Grasshopper Bank Kain of Kung fu, uh, UBS group also, uh, uh, again, announced their Q4 uh, earnings with projected increase in earnings per share, despite a decline in revenues year over year. Uh, earnings estimate is 25 cents per share, indicating an 8.7% increase year over year quarterly revenue expected to decline to 11.62 billion. Strong performance in global wealth management and investment banking is [00:09:00] anticipated. So little bit of a mixed bag there for UBS group. Um, so we, we talked a little bit on the Australian show this week, Tony, about gold and Bitcoin. I did have a laugh at Bitcoin’s expense. Bitcoin has doubled in value over the last five years. It went up and then it came back. Gold and silver and the process of coming back, but they’ve still, you know, had a really good run. But we’ve talked before a lot over the years about these things as a store of value. And I was having this discussion with somebody at Kung Fu the other night. He asked me about Bitcoin, you know, what do you think about Bitcoin? And I was like. You know, it’s a pump and dump. Pretty much. That’s my take on it. Um, but this whole idea of, uh, a store of value, you know, despite what you might think about the inherent properties of cryptocurrencies, uh, versus fear [00:10:00] currencies or the inherent value in gold, uh, something that can be used in jewelry or something that can be used in electronics or a store of value. The challenge that I have, I always try and point out to people as somebody who has learnt from you to try and think about investing rationally, is the question I have to ask myself before I can invest in anything is what is the value of one unit of this

    57 min
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The feed for the free version of the QAV American podcast.

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  • Creator
    QAV America (free feed)
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    44
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    © Copyright Spacecraft Publishing Ltd 2025
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    QAV America (free feed)

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