The Competent Investor

Tom Bodrovics

The Competent Investor brings you deep-dive conversations with the world's top investors, economists, and market strategists. Every episode unpacks the macro forces shaping markets, reveals actionable insights, and delivers conversations that compound your understanding of where capital is flowing.

  1. 6d ago

    Matthew Piepenburg: Today's Gold Setup Is Stronger Than the 1970s Bull Market

    I sat down with Matthew Piepenburg, Partner at Von Greyerz Gold Switzerland and author of Gold Matters, for a conversation that ranged from French riots to the COMEX silver squeeze. What struck me most was his framing of today's gold setup as fundamentally stronger than the 1970s bull market. I asked Matt about the sentiment he encounters as he travels between conferences and clients across continents. His answer was blunt: "The big themes at a 30,000 foot level are geopolitics, of course, and inflation. It's from family offices to a groom, a polo field. I mean, people talking about this everywhere." He described a middle class that has shifted "from the aspirational to the desperation," feeling poorer no matter what they do. When I pressed him on whether the US is in a Wile E. Coyote moment, he didn't hesitate. "America is already over the cliff. We just don't know it yet." But he was quick to add that this isn't the end of America—it's the end of its hegemony. The pattern of debt leading to currency debasement to social unrest is, as he put it, "history in math." On the metals themselves, Matt argued that supply and demand still matter enormously. With only about a billion ounces of gold freely traded against a thousand times larger market cap in stocks and bonds, "only a small move in demand in that very tight supply would crank up the price." He sees the recent silver shakeout—silver losing 35 percent overnight in January—as manipulation, not natural price discovery. His parting advice carried the weight of someone who's seen cycles before: "Your best revenge against a completely mismanaged system is a good life." Save in gold, spend in fiat, and don't wait for a politician to save you. Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction and Global Investor Sentiment00:05:20 - Voting, Politicians, and Self-Reliance00:10:26 - France's Political Turmoil and Debt Crisis00:19:25 - Viewing Markets Through a Gold Lens00:26:09 - America's Wile E. Coyote Moment00:32:30 - Treasury Appointments and Gold Revaluation Speculation00:41:57 - Cantillon Effect and Positioning for Inflation01:24:28 - Closing Thoughts and Final Advice Guest:Matthew Piepenburg — Partner - Von Greyerz Gold Switzerland, Author - Gold MattersMatthew Piepenburg is a Partner of Von Greyerz and the author of the popular book, "Rigged to Fail". Matt is fluent in French, German, and English. He is a graduate of Brown (BA), Harvard (MA), and the University of Michigan (JD). His widely-respected reports on macro conditions and the changing behavior of risk assets are published regularly at SignalsMatter.chttps://twitter.com/GoldSwitzerland https://goldswitzerland.com/ https://signalsmatter.com/ https://tinyurl.com/pvpfmy8c 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

  2. Oct 19

    Rory Johnston: Global Oil Market Shattered - Iran War and Tanker Rate Explosion

    I've had Rory Johnston on before, but this conversation felt different. The oil market Rory describes isn't just tight—it's structurally broken in ways we've never seen. We started with the SPR, and Rory's view is more aggressive than most. "I have a very low theoretical bottom of the SPR relative to a lot of analysts," he told me. "I think functionally the floor is zero barrels." The draws have ended for this tranche, but DOE is soliciting the final 40 million barrels, and Rory expects we'll blow past the 250-260 million barrel level everyone assumes is sacred. Then we got to what Rory calls "arguably the most interesting thing in the oil market right now." For his entire career, if you got a barrel to tidewater, it was functionally a global market. "Now that's all broken." Shipping a barrel from the Persian Gulf to China used to cost $2-3. Now it's $25-30. Tanker day rates have gone from $100-200k to $1.5 million. The result? "Rather than having one big global oil market now, we have a dozen Balkanized regional oil markets that have trouble interacting with each other." The North Sea is screaming shortage while West African crude trades at historic discounts—consumers and exporters squeezed simultaneously. I asked about the WTI-Brent blowout, and Rory dropped a stat that stopped me cold: the spread is wider than when WTI went negative in April 2020. "That's a wild stat." It's not manipulation—it's the cost of shipping injected directly into the differential. On diesel, Rory was blunt about silver bullets: "You either need to fix the war in Russia and Ukraine or you need to end the Iran war. Neither of those seem especially forthcoming." China could ease things by loosening teapot refinery exports, potentially shaving 30-50% off the $100 crack spread. His biggest surprise? The "Beijing swing"—China cutting crude imports by 5.4 million barrels a day. "China is the single most important reason that we did not hit $200 a barrel oil." With midterms ahead, Rory's advice: "Hold on for the ride. This is going to be an exciting month." Timestamps00:00:00 - Introduction and Guest Background00:00:17 - SPR Drawdown and Tank Bottoms00:02:02 - Global Oil Reserves and China00:05:13 - Crude Grade Spreads and Shipping00:12:09 - Tanker Market Crisis Explained00:16:39 - War Risk Insurance Premiums00:19:15 - Iraq's Surprising Production Recovery00:21:44 - WTI-Brent Spread and Manipulation00:27:44 - White House Efforts to Lower Prices00:32:08 - Could Oil Hit $200 a Barrel?00:35:20 - 2026 Oil Glut Outlook00:38:10 - Product Shortages in Emerging Markets00:39:56 - Export Bans and Diesel Markets00:44:22 - Tradable Assets and Spreads00:49:30 - Biggest Surprises: The Beijing Swing00:52:34 - Concluding Thoughts Guest:Rory Johnston — Commodity Market Research - Specializing in Oil & GasRory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines.He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers. His views are regularly quoted in major international media including the Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, CBC, and Financial Post, and he frequently appears on numerous market and industry podcasts (e.g., Bloomberg’s Odd Lots, Hidden Forces, etc.).Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank’s energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank’s executives and clients, and sat on the bank’s senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors.https://www.commoditycontext.com/ https://x.com/Rory_Johnston 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

  3. Oct 16

    Peter Schiff: Worse Than 2008 | The $3 Trillion Mortgage Bomb 💣

    Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Asset Management, argues that the US economy is trapped in a self-perpetuating doom loop driven by massive deficits and rising interest rates, which he believes will inevitably lead to a sovereign debt crisis or hyperinflation. He explains that as the Federal Reserve raises rates to combat persistent inflation, the government's interest expense balloons—potentially consuming half or all of tax revenue within years—forcing even larger deficits that fuel more inflation.Schiff contends the Fed is far behind the curve, with real rates falling as inflation accelerates, and that any further hikes will only worsen the fiscal situation. He highlights a brewing disaster in the housing and banking sectors, where trillions in unrealized losses on low-yielding mortgages threaten lender solvency, a situation he views as far worse than the 2008 crisis. This, combined with a reverse wealth effect as home prices eventually reset lower, will act as a severe headwind for the economy.Schiff predicts Democrats will win the midterms and pass even larger deficits, accelerating the fiscal and inflationary problems.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:37 - Sovereign Debt Crisis Risks00:03:25 - Inflation and Rate Hikes00:08:04 - Market Reactions to Data00:09:34 - Stock Market Breadth Concerns00:11:50 - Mortgage Market Crisis00:22:10 - Housing Wealth Effect Reversal00:26:16 - Fannie Freddie Privatization00:31:04 - Government Deficits and Taxes00:42:24 - Gold Silver Investment Opportunities00:49:20 - AI Impacts and Outlook00:59:28 - Midterms & Concluding Thoughts Guest:Peter Schiff — CEO of Euro Pacific Asset Management, and Chairman of Schiff GoldPeter Schiff is an honorary chairman of SchiffGold, founder of Euro Pacific Asset Management, and host of The Peter Schiff Show. Peter is an economic forecaster and investment advisor influenced by the free-market Austrian School of economics. He is one of the few forecasters who accurately and publicly predicted the 2007 housing market collapse and subsequent 2008 financial crisis. His latest best-selling book, The Real Crash: America's Coming Bankruptcy - How to Save Yourself and Your Country, warns that the 2008 crisis was just the prelude to a larger sovereign debt crisis in the United States that may lead to a collapse of the US dollar. Peter recommends long-term investment in foreign markets with sound fiscal policies, as well as global commodities including buying gold, silver and other physical precious metals.Podcast Website Website X YouTube 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

  4. Oct 15

    AJ Signal: The 5 Supply Chain Signals That Predict War Before the News Does

    AJ Signal, a former military strategist and current geopolitical risk advisor, outlines a framework for predicting conflict by monitoring five logistical signals that nations cannot easily fake: medical mobility, energy, finance, and munitions. He explains how, just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the movement of blood banks to the front line served as an undeniable indicator of imminent war, because the cold-chain logistics for blood are too complex to be a bluff. Applying this lens today, he observes the U.S. military moving blood supplies into both Europe and the Asia-Pacific, which, combined with other indicators, suggests preparations for a potential ground operation against Iran.The discussion then turns to the “Toyota Hilux Index,” a pattern where a surge in shipments of these versatile, easily maintained trucks often precedes militia activity or civil war by six to twelve months. On energy, Signal details how attacks on critical but remote pumping stations along Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline have effectively disabled a key bypass for crude oil exports, demonstrating the new vulnerability of critical national infrastructure to low-cost drone warfare. He notes that the real choke point in global energy is shifting from oil wells to refineries, which are being systematically targeted in both Russia and the Middle East, taking years and billions of dollars to repair.Financially, he points to a massive movement of physical gold by central banks and institutions, including the Netherlands recalling its reserves, as a sign of eroding trust in the U.S. dollar and the current financial system. This is complemented by a surge in gold accumulation by China and private entities like Tether.Finally, he warns that the convergence of these signals—blood logistics, vehicle shipments, refinery attacks, and gold repatriation—paints a picture of a world structurally preparing for prolonged conflict, with inevitable knock-on effects including higher fuel and food prices, potential fertilizer shortages, and increased global instability.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:01:10 - A.J. Signal Background00:02:57 - Five Lanes of Signals00:03:59 - Medical Blood Supplies Ukraine00:08:31 - Current Blood Movements00:21:57 - Energy Strait of Hormuz00:25:08 - Pipeline Attacks Analysis00:35:27 - Oil Prices and Refineries00:58:22 - Finance Gold Settlements01:06:57 - Munitions Supply Chains01:10:34 - Concluding Thoughts Guest:AJ Signal — Strategic Geopolitical Risk Analysis & InsightsAJ Signal is a strategic geopolitical risk analysts, advisor and defence writer covering conflict, international relations and game theory. He has with 21 years across military, corporate security, intelligence, risk, crisis and disaster management, and has advises multinationals companies on risk and crisis strategy. His work has been published in The Times and the Jerusalem Post, featured on LCI/TF1, and cited by name in US Congressional Research Service. He publishes Signal, Not Noise!, a Substack Bestseller and Rising publication in World Politics. He is currently writing a book on Sanctions Capitalism.X Substack/Discount 25% Off Link 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

  5. Oct 14

    Michael Pento: 2027 Will be a Year of Reckoning for the U.S. Economy and Markets

    Michael Pento, President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, joins Tom Bodrovics to discuss his increasingly cautious market outlook. Pento’s model currently sits in sectors three and four, indicating stasis or slight reflation, but he anticipates a shift to sectors one and two by 2027. He has neutralized his portfolio for the first time since December 2021, reflecting his bePento argues that the Federal Reserve is raising short-term rates while long-term rates are also rising, creating pressure on a "triumvirate of bubbles"—credit, real estate, and equities. He attributes this to inflation remaining above target for over five years, foreign creditors abandoning US Treasuries in favor of gold, and the unwinding of the yen carry trade. The US savings rate is near historic lows, limiting demand for government debt while deficits remain massive. He warns that AI-related debt issuance, potentially a trillion dollars this year, is fueling inflation and competing with Treasuries for scarce savings. He dismisses the idea that renewed quantitative easing could solve the problem, calling such measures palliative and likely to trigger a stagflationary environment.Pento predicts the next recession will cause deficits to balloon from two trillion to four-to-six trillion dollars annually, with the Fed unable to lower rates effectively without igniting double-digit inflation. He notes that total non-financial business debt, equity market capitalization relative to GDP, and housing affordability are all at or near record extremes, making the coming downturn potentially severe. Pento emphasizes that the Fed’s traditional tools—lowering rates and expanding its balance sheet—will not work this time because investors now understand the inflationary consequences. He concludes that the US is trapped by overfinancialization and fiscal irresponsibility, with no easy exit from the coming credit crisis.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:27 - Current Market Model Position00:04:34 - AI Debt Bubble Pressures00:05:51 - Treasury Rate Competition00:10:11 - Foreign Creditors Shift to Gold00:11:52 - Japan Carry Trade Issues00:13:42 - Energy Costs and Japan00:18:42 - Fed and Treasury Tools00:21:00 - Real Estate and Wealth Effects00:30:00 - Concluding Thoughts Guest:Michael Pento — President and Founder of Pento Portfolio StrategiesMichael Pento is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies with more than 30 years of professional investment experience. He worked on the floor of the NYSE during the mid-90s. Pento served as an economist for both Delta Global and EuroPacific Capital. He was also the portfolio creator and consultant to Delta/Claymore's commodity portfolios, which were distributed through Claymore/Guggenheim's sales network.Website E-Mail X 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

  6. Oct 9

    Jaime Carrasco: The Fed Can’t Stop What’s Coming | Why Gold is Headed to $25,000

    Jaime Carrasco, Senior Portfolio Manager at Harbourfront Wealth Management, argues that rising global interest rates signal a deepening credit crisis rather than a healthy economy, likening the situation to water overwhelming the Titanic. He views the current pullback in gold prices not as a weakness but as a strategic opportunity to build positions, emphasizing that central banks continue to accumulate physical gold as a hedge against the ongoing debasement of fiat currencies.Carrasco contends that the real problem is not assets becoming more valuable but the purchasing power of money eroding, a trend he expects to accelerate as governments are forced to print money to manage unsustainable debt levels. He draws a sharp distinction between owning real assets and holding credit-based derivatives, warning that the latter could prove worthless in a systemic reset reminiscent of the 1930s.Carrasco highlights the precious metals sector, particularly producers like Agnico Eagle, as one of the few areas trading at a discount to intrinsic value, offering a value proposition similar to Warren Buffett’s investments in the late 1990s. He sees a massive opportunity in silver, noting the historically extreme 70-to-1 gold-silver ratio compared to an 8-to-1 mining ratio, and points to growing industrial demand and Asian physical buying as catalysts for a rebalancing.Geopolitically, Carrasco favors Latin America for its resource wealth and relative insulation from the credit and energy crises afflicting Europe and other regions. He stresses the importance of patience and a disciplined asset allocation, recommending a significant weighting in precious metals and direct share ownership. For investors, the core message is to recognize the long-term monetary shift underway and position accordingly in tangible assets and well-managed producers before the broader market fully acknowledges the scope of the developing storm.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:56 - Gold as Crisis or Opportunity00:03:43 - Fiat Currency Devaluation00:09:03 - Positioning in Real Assets00:14:48 - Gold Pullback as Opportunity00:22:50 - Interest Rates and Bonds00:29:00 - Gold Silver Ratio Opportunity00:35:48 - Asset Allocation Strategy00:40:00 - Geopolitical Risks Latin America00:45:00 - Portfolio Construction Details00:55:10 - Volatility Versus Risk01:00:00 - Timeline for Positioning01:07:34 - Concluding Thoughts Guest:Jaime Carrasco — Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth ManagementJaime Carrasco is Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management. From 2014-2018 he worked as Director of Wealth Management and Associate Portfolio Manager for ScotiaMcLeod. Before this, he worked for Macquarie Group, CIBC Wood Gundy, BMO Nesbitt Burns, Gordon Capital, and Merrill Lynch.Jaime is a leading Canadian investment professional with 25 years of experience providing wealth management and investment counsel to affluent families, businesses, and institutions. He has garnered a reputation for questioning and challenging the status quo and exploring the most innovative investment strategies.Jaime, whose mother tongue is Spanish, also speaks Italian and French. He completed a BA in political science and economics at the University of Toronto in 1988. While a student, he worked for CS Yacht, a company that built luxury sailboats, thus spending his summers as a skipper for the Canadian establishment members. Jaime credits this experience and having survived sailing through Hurricane Bob in 1991. This experience taught him lessons that have become a metaphor for his financial investment strategies."Like one's financial wealth, sailing is not about controlling the wind, but rather about adjusting the sails."X LinkedIn Website E-Mail 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

  7. Oct 6

    2029 | The End of America and the Coming Financial Collapse

    Porter Stansberry warns that the United States is on an irreversible path toward a major fiscal and societal crisis by 2029, drawing a historical parallel to the downfall of the Knights Templar. He explains that when a sovereign becomes insolvent, it inevitably turns on its creditors, and the largest creditor to the U.S. government is not bondholders but the recipients of unfunded Social Security promises. The root of this decay, he argues, is the abandonment of the gold standard, which has enabled unchecked money printing and triggered the Cantillon effect—where newly created currency flows first to the wealthy and connected, systematically eroding the middle class and destroying the single-income household. This monetary debasement has fueled profound cultural and moral collapse, manifesting in diseases of desperation, addiction, and a loss of faith in American institutions.Stansberry identifies the legal doctrine of "disparate impact" as the American version of Marxism, arguing it has corrupted everything from education and law enforcement to banking, leading to urban decay and institutional inefficiency. He contends that the banking system is now acutely vulnerable due to massive unrecognized losses on bond portfolios, a situation made untenable by the rise of AI, which will soon allow depositors to effortlessly seek market-based yields, triggering bank runs. To survive the coming reset, Stansberry outlines tiered investment strategies. For the very wealthy, he recommends buying deeply undervalued timberland.For most investors, he advocates a "permanent portfolio" that replaces traditional bonds with property and casualty insurance stocks to hedge against inflation and volatility. For those still accumulating wealth, he details a "honeycomb" portfolio—a concentrated, seven-sector strategy centered on gold and enhanced with modest leverage to maximize returns while minimizing risk. He concludes that the window to prepare is closing, urging immediate action before the crisis becomes obvious to everyone.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:54 - Friday the 13th Origins00:02:03 - Social Security Crisis Warning00:06:53 - Cantillon Effect Explained00:07:53 - Disparate Impact Doctrine00:22:06 - Banking System Risks00:28:19 - AI Transforming Banking00:33:14 - Permanent Portfolio Strategy00:41:26 - Honeycomb Portfolio Approach00:44:10 - Being Pro-Active00:57:20 - Concluding ThoughtsGuest Links:X: https://x.com/porterstansbWebsite: https://www.porterstansberry.com/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/porterstansberry/Substack: https://substack.com/@porterstansberryPorter Stansberry is one of the most recognized voices in independent financial publishing over the past quarter century. He built Stansberry Research from a single newsletter into a company that went public at a $3 billion valuation, then walked away to start over on his own terms.In 1999, Porter Stansberry launched what would become Stansberry Research with a borrowed laptop and $36,000 in seed financing from publisher Bill Bonner. The operation began in a modest Baltimore apartment, where he wrote his first newsletter, initially called the Pirate Investor, and built a subscriber base through the quality and directness of the analysis itself.The model was simple in concept and difficult in execution: deliver genuinely useful investment research to individual investors who had no access to the same quality of analysis available to institutional clients. That founding principle shaped everything that followed.Before starting his own firm, Porter had already established a foothold in financial publishing by becoming the first American editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the world's oldest English-language financial newsletter. The role gave him a grounding in the tradition of long-form, independent financial analysis, a tradition he would spend the next two decades expanding.Porter Stansberry departed from MarketWise in 2020 and founded Porter & Co. in April of that year. He left the institutional structure of a public company behind and returned to the model he had started with: a small, editorially-independent team producing research without compliance committees, corporate mandates, or outside investors determining the agenda. Guest:Porter Stansberry — Founder of MarketWise, OneBlade, and Porter & Co.Porter Stansberry is one of the most recognized voices in independent financial publishing over the past quarter century. He built Stansberry Research from a single newsletter into a company that went public at a $3 billion valuation, then walked away to start over on his own terms.In 1999, Porter Stansberry launched what would become Stansberry Research with a borrowed laptop and $36,000 in seed financing from publisher Bill Bonner. The operation began in a modest Baltimore apartment, where he wrote his first newsletter, initially called the Pirate Investor, and built a subscriber base through the quality and directness of the analysis itself.The model was simple in concept and difficult in execution: deliver genuinely useful investment research to individual investors who had no access to the same quality of analysis available to institutional clients. That founding principle shaped everything that followed.Before starting his own firm, Porter had already established a foothold in financial publishing by becoming the first American editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the world's oldest English-language financial newsletter. The role gave him a grounding in the tradition of long-form, independent financial analysis, a tradition he would spend the next two decades expanding.Porter Stansberry departed from MarketWise in 2020 and founded Porter & Co. in April of that year. He left the institutional structure of a public company behind and returned to the model he had started with: a small, editorially-independent team producing research without compliance committees, corporate mandates, or outside investors determining the agenda.X Website Instagram Substack 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

  8. Oct 2

    Tony Greer: Banana Skins & Moon Shots | Waiting for the Bond Market to Capitulate

    Tom welcomes back trader Tony Greer to the show. Tony describes the current market as one of the most challenging environments he's ever navigated. He explains that a "perfect storm" of colliding weather systems is making trading exceptionally difficult. Elevated energy prices, driven by conflict with Iran and a persistently high diesel crack spread, are causing real-world inflation that isn't fully captured in headline data. This is exerting immense pressure on the bond market, which has broken out of a long-standing range to the downside, sending yields sharply higher.Greer points out that this dynamic is crushing the natural resources sector. A strong U.S. dollar, itself a product of higher rates, is knocking down commodities like gold, uranium, and rare earths, which have seen their recent rallies completely reverse. He notes that institutional money has likely fled these trades entirely. Meanwhile, the equity market is being led by a narrow group of technology stocks, particularly in semiconductors and AI, which seem completely detached from rising rates and fuel costs—a situation he finds unsustainable and reminiscent of the dot-com bubble, highlighting a sentiment top where a random retiree brags about her Nvidia stock.Looking ahead, Greer is adopting a defensive posture focused on survival. He is "slapping singles" by trading small, being disciplined with stops, and waiting for a clear macro signal. His immediate plan is to look for pullbacks in leading tech sectors for a safer entry. He dismisses the idea that the Federal Reserve is in a pickle, arguing its control over money supply and expectations gives it immense power to eventually engineer a turnaround.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:02:20 - Market Whipsaw and Challenges00:04:22 - Inflation and Diesel Prices00:07:00 - Bond Market Tailspin00:09:10 - Bond Market Focus00:14:30 - High Rates Market Pressure00:17:55 - Fed Position and Policy00:21:05 - Market Resilience and Sentiment00:24:26 - Icarus Prints Explained00:29:00 - Energy Crisis and Oil00:36:11 - Impact on Miners and Firms00:38:02 - AI Bubble and Passive Flows00:41:10 - New Gold ETFs YASU00:44:55 - New Financial Order & Real Assets00:55:36 - Favorite Lessons & Mentors Guest:Tony Greer — Trader, Editor of 'The Morning Navigator', and Co-Founder of 'The Macrodirt Podcast'After graduating from Cornell University in 1990 Tony followed in his father’s footsteps to a Wall Street trading operation. He quickly learned his career path would be vastly different. He says, "I would not be sitting in the same seat on the same trading desk managing the same risk for the same firm for over 30 years."We have clearly entered a new era in financial markets.He began in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank on the 107th floor of the World Trade Center downtown Manhattan. Tony was an FX trading assistant while the Quantum Fund was breaking the Bank of England in 1992.In 1993 he joined Union Bank of Switzerland as an FX and commodities trader, spending half a year as a Vice President in their Zurich treasury department. Then returned to New York City early in 1995 to join J. Aron & Company, the privately held commodity trading arm of Goldman Sachs.He managed risk for the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, in precious and base metals trading, and futures and options trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.He started his first venture in 2000 – Machine Trading which happened right before the tech bubble burst. That decision was his first excruciating life lesson in market timing. It turned out to be an extremely valuable learning experience.He believes there is a massive opportunity with both the unprecedented situation in global markets and in the way financial news is consumed. In 2016, he started TG Macro, LLC.Conference Website X Substack YouTube 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

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The Competent Investor brings you deep-dive conversations with the world's top investors, economists, and market strategists. Every episode unpacks the macro forces shaping markets, reveals actionable insights, and delivers conversations that compound your understanding of where capital is flowing.

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