Market Misbehavior with David Keller, CMT

Dave Keller, CMT
  • 4.2 (5)
  • Investing

On the Market Misbehavior Podcast, host Dave Keller, CMT, keeps things real as he breaks down what’s moving the markets and why it matters to investors. With a genuine, down-to-earth approach, Dave chats with top investment experts about what they’re seeing in the markets and digs into the psychology that shapes our investing choices. It’s not just market talk—it’s about helping you understand the bigger picture and avoid common pitfalls. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just market-curious, tune in for straightforward discussions and actionable tips for upgrading your investing game.

  1. 1d ago

    The Fine Art of Doing Nothing | The Fly and Die IPO with Dave Landry

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by veteran trader, educator, and founder of davelandry.com, Dave Landry. Recorded September 2nd 2026. Dave shares his minimalist approach to the markets, explaining why stripping away complex indicators to focus on pure price action is the ultimate key to trading consistency. The conversation dives deeply into the psychology of patience—highlighting why highly successful professionals often make the worst traders because they are conditioned to always take action. We explore his specific money management rules for scaling out of positions, the mechanics of his TFM (Trend Following Moron) 10% system designed to completely sidestep devastating bear markets, and why market cycles are compressing due to rampant leverage. They also break down his technical playbook for IPOs, examining the "fly and die" pattern that recently played out in the SpaceX IPO. 📈 Topics Covered • Why adding complex technical indicators is a trap, and how the ultimate enlightenment comes from stripping it all back to a blank chart • The psychology of patience: Why highly proactive, successful professionals (like doctors and lawyers) often make the worst traders • Scaling out for a "free ride": Taking half off, moving stops to break even, and letting the remaining position capture the long-term trend • The TFM (Trend Following Moron) 10% system: A brilliantly simple moving-average rule to keep you out of devastating bear markets • Trading the SpaceX IPO: Understanding the "fly and die" cycle and why you should never buy a new issue before its fifth day of trading • Time compression in modern markets: Why excessive derivatives and leverage are shortening bull-bear cycles, making short-selling a necessary skill • The dangers of "mental monetization" (e.g., boat shopping while in a winning trade) and how extraneous life influences destroy trading discipline 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  2. 3d ago

    The AI Shaped Economy | Big Money but Big Problems with Hardika Singh

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Hardika Singh, Economic Strategist at Fundstrat Global Advisors. Recorded September 1st 2026. Hardika discusses her fascinating career transition from a skeptical Wall Street Journal reporter to a data-driven, optimistic strategist working alongside Tom Lee. We dig into why the 10-year Treasury yield acts as the "god" of the economy, the stark realities of the K-shaped economic divide where older demographics thrive while younger workers are crushed by interest rates, and why the recent inflation data might actually be a massive measurement error stemming from recreational software costs. The conversation also explores the psychology behind the "debasement trade" (and why Gold has more staying power than Bitcoin), and the eerie cultural divide between San Francisco's AI obsession and the looming threat of white-collar job destruction. Hardika's research on Fundstrat Direct: https://fundstratdirect.com/ 📈 Topics Covered • Hardika's transition from the inherent skepticism of financial journalism (at the WSJ) to the data-driven optimism required of an economic strategist • Why the 10-year Treasury yield is the "god" of the economy, and why crossing the 5% threshold is the ultimate red flag for equity valuations • The harsh realities of the K-shaped economy: How high interest rates disproportionately reward older, asset-heavy demographics while crushing younger consumers • Deconstructing the latest core PCE inflation data: Why a spike in "recreational goods" (driven by a measurement error in computer software CPI) is artificially inflating the numbers • The "Debasement Trade" explained: Why Gold remains a more practical safe-haven asset than Bitcoin as deficit and dollar worries mount • The eerie AI culture shock: Comparing the ubiquitous, billboard-heavy AI euphoria of San Francisco with the looming threat of mass white-collar job destruction • The generational AI divide: Why younger workers face the risk of becoming a "permanent underclass" if they rely on generative AI instead of developing critical thinking skills • Why the Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" remains the ultimate, underappreciated treasure trove of anecdotal economic data 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  3. Aug 29

    The Founder Factor | Selling Hired CEOs with Lauren Cassidy

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Lauren Cassidy, Founder and CIO of Founder ETFs. Recorded in late August 2026. Lauren details her proprietary "Founder Factor Framework," explaining how her team filters thousands of founder-led companies down to the top 100 based on fundamental quality and valuation metrics. We dig into the stark difference between conservative hired managers and visionary founders, why her research shows that a stock should be sold the moment a founder steps down (using Viking Cruises as a prime example), and how the recent software "SaaSpocalypse" created a massive valuation reset for AI-integrated software companies like Datadog and Palantir. The conversation also explores the danger of the "Metaverse pivot," navigating the SpaceX IPO, and why implementing an 80% systematic/20% discretionary strategy is the ultimate behavioral guardrail for investors. If you enjoyed today's episode, please check out these links!   Founders 100 ETF: https://www.founderetfs.com/ 📈 Topics Covered • The fundamental difference in capital allocation and risk tolerance between a visionary original founder and a conservative hired corporate manager • Filtering the universe: How the "Founder Factor Framework" narrows 1,000 eligible founder-led securities down to an actively managed 100-stock portfolio • Navigating the software "SaaSpocalypse": Why the initial panic that "AI will replace software" created a generational valuation reset for companies like Datadog and Palantir • The absolute sell signal: Why 27 years of data shows you must sell a stock immediately when a founder announces they are stepping down (e.g., Viking Cruises) • Avoiding the "Growth in Disguise" trap: How a disciplined focus on cash flow, moats, and the "Rule of 40" separates true founder alpha from passive Nasdaq 100 exposure • Evaluating the SpaceX IPO: Balancing visionary potential against initial high-valuation hurdles and free cash flow generation • The 80/20 behavioral guardrail: Why keeping a process 80% systematic and 20% discretionary protects investors from emotional panic at market extremes • The Mark Zuckerberg metaverse pivot: Understanding the unique "moral authority" a founder has to drastically reverse course and shift corporate strategy overnight 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  4. Aug 24

    The Weight of the Evidence | Tech Mania Tips with Katie Stockton

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Katie Stockton, Founder of Fairlead Strategies. Recorded in mid-August 2026. Katie shares how she transitioned from a subjective, narrative-driven technical analyst into a highly disciplined, rules-based portfolio manager. We dig into why technical analysis isn't about predicting the future, but rather putting the "weight of the evidence" in your favor to ensure you never stay on the wrong side of a trend. The conversation explores the mechanics behind her Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK)—which equal-weights sectors to provide necessary ballast against massive mega-cap tech concentration—and how she uses multiple timeframes to reconcile lagging moving averages with contrarian DeMark exhaustion indicators. We also discuss the strategy behind her newly launched Tactical Bitcoin ETF (BNAV), applying traditional trend-following rules to the extreme volatility and consolidation phases of crypto. If You've enjoyed today's interview with Katie Stockton, please check out one of these Links! Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF: https://www.fairleadfunds.com/ Amplify Fairlead Tactical Bitcoin ETF: https://amplifyetfs.com/bnav/ 📈 Topics Covered • Shifting from prediction to probabilities: Why technical analysis is fundamentally about recognizing when the evidence has changed to keep trends on your side • The hierarchy of technical indicators: Why price and trend must always supersede momentum and breadth in a rules-based system • Managing the "tech-heavy" benchmark problem: Using an equal-weight tactical sector approach (via the TACK ETF) to provide portfolio ballast and capture rotations into Energy or Materials • Reconciling conflicting signals: How to balance lagging moving averages with contrarian DeMark exhaustion indicators across multiple timeframes • Overcoming the fear of "Overbought": Why an overbought RSI reading in a primary uptrend is often the beginning of a massive run rather than a sell signal • The tactical approach to Bitcoin: Applying trend-following technicals to a 24/7 global commodity characterized by prolonged consolidations and explosive volatility • Removing emotional bias: Why adopting a systematic, rules-based process is the ultimate defense against confirmation bias and behavioral "bonehead" mistakes 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  5. Aug 17

    Avoid the Momentum Trap | Find True Value with Kevin Abbott

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Kevin Abbott, Senior Sector Research Strategist at State Street Investment Management and former Fidelity colleague. Recorded in August 2026. Kevin breaks down why the "AI" label is no longer a monolithic rising tide, emphasizing the critical need to identify the winners and losers as massive hyperscaler spending trickles down into cloud computing backlogs and infrastructure hardware (like semiconductors and memory). We explore why the software sector was "sold off indiscriminately" as business models faced AI disruption, how negative free cash flow isn't always a death knell if long-term analyst estimates hold strong, and the structural advantages of using sector rotation for risk management. The conversation also explores why investors must avoid getting "swept up in the momentum of the moment" by anchoring their decisions with a stable, uncorrelated sector framework. State Street Sector Insights: https://www.ssga.com/us/en/individual/capabilities/equities/sector-investing/select-sector-etfs State Street on LinkedIn:  https://www.linkedin.com/company/state-street-investment-management/ 📈 Topics Covered • Differentiating the AI ecosystem: Why "AI" is no longer a monolithic block, and how to spot the actual winners in cloud computing backlogs and infrastructure hardware • Unpacking the hyperscaler spending boom: Why massive CapEx and negative free cash flow (similar to Amazon in 2020) can still yield long-term returns • The indiscriminate software sell-off: How AI disrupted traditional seat-based software models, creating mispriced opportunities for contrarian buyers • Evaluating the "circular financing" risk: Monitoring debt levels and free cash flow in legacy tech names like Oracle • The stability of the sector framework: Why the 11 GICS sectors provide a far more consistent tracking mechanism than rapidly shifting factor models (like Value or Growth) • Strategic sector correlations: How to hedge a tech-heavy index by maintaining core exposure to negatively correlated sectors like Energy, Staples, and Real Estate • The four-legged stool of investing: Balancing Fundamental, Technical, Quantitative, and Behavioral inputs to avoid making the wrong decisions • Generating yield in a low-dividend market: Utilizing premium income sector ETFs (like XLKI) for retirees seeking both market exposure and cash flow 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  6. Aug 14

    Baking the Deficit | Investor Recipes for Success with Callie Cox

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Callie Cox, Chief Market Strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management. Recorded August 11th 2026. Callie shares her data-driven approach to why optimism is a long-term investor's greatest advantage—and how to build a disciplined framework to ensure that optimism doesn't bleed into dangerous complacency. We dig into her brilliant "chocolate chip cookie" metaphor for understanding the U.S. national deficit, the massive shift of capital from public exchanges to private markets, and why an investor's primary job is filtering out financial media noise. The conversation also explores the resilient strength of corporate earnings six years post-COVID, the rising term premium in long-term Treasury yields, and why Wall Street's year-end S&P 500 price targets are nothing more than a marketing tool. If you enjoyed today's interview with Callie (I know I certainly did) be sure to help out by checking these fantastic links!  Callie's newsletter: https://www.optimisticallie.com/ Follow Callie on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/callie-cox-553a1a28/  📈 Topics Covered • Why historical data proves that long-term optimism is a statistical advantage, and how to avoid the trap of market complacency • Evaluating the 2026 earnings season: Sustaining 20% growth rates and navigating the divergence between mega-cap tech and consumer staples like McDonald's • The "Chocolate Chip Cookie" metaphor: How the U.S. national deficit operates like a binge-eating stomachache, slowly creeping into 30-year Treasury yields • Navigating the explosion of private markets: Weighing the illiquidity and high fees of private credit and equity against public market returns • Why 90% of financial headlines don't matter, and how to build an individualized investment framework to filter out the noise • The myth of the year-end price target: Why grasping for S&P 500 forecasts distracts investors from long-term generational wealth building • Transitioning from an emotion-based to an evidence-based process: Using probabilistic exercises to identify portfolio blind spots 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  7. Aug 7

    Three Companies Own the World | The Memory Play with Howard Chan

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Howard Chan, CEO of Kurv Investment Management. Recorded August 4th 2026. Howard breaks down why highly specialized memory chips (High Bandwidth Memory) have become the ultimate bottleneck in the AI infrastructure buildout, explaining how hyperscalers are driving up costs across the entire consumer electronics ecosystem. We dig into the massive physical constraints of expanding semiconductor supply, why the global memory market is dominated by a tight three-company oligopoly, and how to gain pure-play exposure to this theme through the new KMEM ETF. The conversation also explores how to rethink the traditional 60/40 portfolio by using institutional-style covered call strategies to harvest volatility premia and generate synthetic income from traditionally non-yielding assets like mega-cap tech and gold. If you enjoyed today's episode with our Guest Howard Chan, check out this link to Kurv ETFs: https://www.kurvinvest.com/ 📈 Topics Covered • Why High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is critical for reducing AI "hallucinations" and maintaining context in frontier models like ChatGPT and Claude • The physical and capital constraints limiting new chip supply, including $50 billion fab costs and multi-year ASML equipment backlogs • How the pivot to AI memory is crowding out traditional chip manufacturing, driving up prices for consumer electronics like Xbox, Nintendo, and Apple devices • The three-company oligopoly controlling 90% of the world's memory chips: Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix • Navigating the limitations of single-country Korean ETFs and the impact of SK Hynix's recent US cross-listing • The dangers of excessive retail leverage in semiconductor momentum trades (and the recent margin call wipeouts in global markets) • Rethinking covered calls: How institutional call spread strategies allow investors to harvest volatility premia (income) without completely capping upside potential • Modernizing the 60/40 portfolio by generating synthetic yield from traditionally non-income producing assets like growth tech and precious metals 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

  8. Aug 3

    Fear, Greed, and Earnings | Charting 2026 with Mary Ellen McGonagle

    In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Mary Ellen McGonagle, President of MEM Investment Research and former colleague of legendary investor William O'Neill. Recorded July 29th 2026. Mary Ellen shares timeless investing wisdom on how fear and greed continue to drive the markets despite today's information overload. The conversation explores how to navigate the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO using historical chart analogs (like Meta/Facebook), the transition into "Phase 2" of the AI trade where actual revenue generation dictates market winners, and the critical importance of a strict sell discipline using daily RSI and moving averages. We also dig into seasonal summer volatility, identifying the "haves and have-nots" in the software sector, and a brilliant strategy for reverse-engineering passive ETF fund flows to uncover hidden individual stock breakouts. If you've enjoyed today's episode, please check out these links!  - How to Make Money in Stocks by William O'Neil https://amzn.to/4yK1bZ7 - Bull: A History of the Boom and Bust, 1982-2004 by Maggie Mahar - MEM Investment Research:  https://meminvestmentresearch.com/ 📈 Topics Covered • Timeless lessons from William O'Neill: Why fear, greed, and earnings remain the ultimate market drivers (the CANSLIM methodology) • Navigating information overload: How to filter the modern financial "fire hose" down to actionable technical insights • The SpaceX IPO playbook: Why waiting for profitability and a proper base formation beats chasing the initial euphoric spike • Entering Phase 2 of the AI trade: The shift from speculative infrastructure to actualized revenue, usage, and eventual quantum computing • Developing a strict sell discipline: Using daily RSI and 50-day moving averages to lock in profits on parabolic names like Micron • Summer seasonality: Why August brings historical volatility and how the fall often sparks renewed tech leadership (the classic "payphone indicator") • The software sector rotation: Differentiating between AI-enhancing "haves" (cybersecurity) and obsolete "have-nots" • A clever stock-picking hack: Tracking passive ETF fund flows (like the MOO Agribusiness ETF) to identify strong underlying individual holdings • Gauging true market breadth: Why the Nasdaq 100 Bullish Percent Index hitting the 30% floor signals a hidden bullish bounce despite index-level deterioration 🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse 📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist 👉  Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT 👉  Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social 👉  Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior 👉  Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

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4.2
out of 5
5 Ratings

About

On the Market Misbehavior Podcast, host Dave Keller, CMT, keeps things real as he breaks down what’s moving the markets and why it matters to investors. With a genuine, down-to-earth approach, Dave chats with top investment experts about what they’re seeing in the markets and digs into the psychology that shapes our investing choices. It’s not just market talk—it’s about helping you understand the bigger picture and avoid common pitfalls. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just market-curious, tune in for straightforward discussions and actionable tips for upgrading your investing game.

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