Energy Markets Daily

EMD

Energy Markets Daily delivers essential intelligence for global energy capital. Hosted with institutional authority, this daily brief covers WTI/Brent crude analysis, natural gas markets, energy M&A activity, drilling intelligence, and the geopolitical developments that drive billion-dollar energy decisions. Providing superior energy market intelligence sourced from the same trading floors, boardrooms, and energy desks where your competition operates. Essential listening for oil & gas executives, energy investors, and institutional capital allocating $100M+ in the energy sector. Contact: energymarkets@protonmail.com Disclaimer: This podcast is powered by Daily Dominance and utilizes artificial intelligence technology for content creation and production. The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Daily Dominance. All content is generated with the intent to provide informative and engaging material; however, the accuracy and reliability of the information presented may vary. Listeners are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with professionals before making any decisions based on the content of this podcast. By listening to this podcast, you acknowledge and agree to these terms.

  1. 9h ago

    2026 Year-in-Review and Q4 2026 Outlook

    2026 YEAR-IN-REVIEW AND Q4 2026 OUTLOOK. CRUDE OIL: WTI 2026 YTD average $84.01/bbl (range $55.99-$112.95), up 68% from Jan start (~$57 to ~$96 Sep). Q1 ~$72.13, Q2 ~$95.76, Q3 ~$86.94. vs 2025 avg $64.94 (up $29/bbl, +45%). Brent 2026 YTD $93.81/bbl (range $61-$138), up 84% from Jan (~$62 to ~$114 Sep). Q1 ~$66.60, Q2 ~$117.30, Q3 ~$92.40. vs 2025 avg $69.14 (up $24.87, +36%). Recent Oct: WTI ~$91.85, Brent ~$125.44. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub 2026 YTD average $3.48/MMBtu. Monthly range Jan $4.144, Feb $3.148, Mar $3.036, Apr $2.683, May $2.938, Jun $3.206, Jul $2.963, Aug $2.766, Sep $2.954. Q1 ~$3.45, Q2 ~$2.94, Q3 ~$2.90. vs 2025 avg ~$3.52 (relatively flat YoY). Recent Oct ~$3.03. CRUDE PRODUCTION: US 2026 proj 13.9M bbl/d (2025 actual 13.7). Global 2026 proj 101.1M bbl/d (2025 actual 106.3, major decline Strait disruptions). OPEC 2026 proj 23.9M, non-OPEC 77.2M. Nov 2026 quotas unchanged (Saudi 10.478M, Russia 9.949M, Iraq 4.431M, Kuwait 2.676M, Kazakhstan 1.628M, Algeria 1.007M, Oman 0.841M). Q4 assumes ~4.5M bbl/d shut-ins, Brent $105 avg. STRAIT OF HORMUZ 2026 CRISIS: Pre-crisis baseline ~17-21M bbl/d crude/refined products. Current ~80-85% (late Sep), dropping 40-80% (early Oct). AIS transits ~1-10% normal (~85/day pre-crisis, now single-digit). Cumulative loss 2B barrels first 7 months. Peak disruption 14% global combined oil/gas supply. Largest modern disruption (2x 1970s shocks, 6x Russia-Ukraine). Tanker attacks surge Sep/Oct (9-12+ incidents/week). War-risk ~30x pre-crisis. Buffers (Saudi/UAE bypass pipelines 3.5-5.5M bpl usable, inventory/demand compression) containing gap. NATURAL GAS 2026: US consumption proj 92.37 Bcf/d. Production proj 112.20 Bcf/d. LNG exports ~17.6-18 Bcf/d. Storage Oct 30-forecast ~3,850 Bcf (2% above 5-yr avg), build ~328 Bcf Oct. INVENTORY: US crude commercial (ex-SPR) late Sep 427.3M bbl (2% above 5-yr avg). SPR historic low 284.6M bbl (down 30% YoY, lowest since late 1982). Gasoline 6-7% below avg, distillate 12-14% below avg. Q4 2026 & 2027 FORECASTS: Brent 2026 annual avg $96/bbl (EIA, raised from $91), Q4 $105 (raised $14 due ME constraints, shut-ins, draws, diesel tightness). 2027 avg $84. WTI 2026 ~$88, 2027 ~$80. Global inventory Q3 draw 1.9M bpl, Q4 draw 0.7M bpd, 2027 builds. Henry Hub 2026 annual avg $3.48/MMBtu, 2027 avg $3.16 (down 9%, ~$0.32 lower). Jan 2027 no spike (vs Jan 2026 storm spike $7.72). 2027 monthly range low ~$2.60 (Apr/May) to high ~$3.90 (Dec). US dry gas prod 2026 proj 112.20 Bcf/d, 2027 proj 116.13. LNG exports 2026 ~17.6-18 Bcf/d, 2027 ~18.6-19. HEATING SEASON 2026-27: Residential heating consumption flat nationally vs prior winter. HDD ~3,150 (3% below 10-yr avg), slightly warmer normal. Q4 weather milder than avg (Nov-Dec ~1,430 HDD, slightly below avg). Heating expenditures ~9% lower than prior winter (lower prices + weather), Northeast down 14%. GEOPOLITICAL: US-Iran conflict ongoing since Feb 28, 2026 (7-8 months Oct 2026). Shut-ins avg several M bpd, peak 5-10+ M bpd. Key variables: US/Israeli strikes potential, proxy actions, full Hormuz blockage (+$4/bbl per M lost, prices could spike $100-150 severe). US midterms Nov 2026. Diplomacy fragile/stalled. Scenarios: gradual normalization (prices $70-90), prolonged standoff/escalation (elevated/spike further), knock-on global inflation/growth. SUMMARY: WTI 2026 YTD $84.01 (up 68%), Brent $93.81 (up 84%). Q4 Brent EIA $105, 2027 $84 Brent/$80 WTI. Henry Hub $3.48 YTD, 2027 $3.16 (down 9%). US prod 13.9M bpd, global 101.1M (Strait impact). OPEC Nov quotas unchanged (supply tight). Strait Day 247 crisis, flows 80-85% late Sep dropping 40-80% early Oct, 2B barrels lost 7 months, 14% global disruption peak. US crude 427M bbl (2% above avg), SPR historic low 284M (30% down YoY). Q4 Brent $105 EIA, WTI $88. Gas $3.48 avg, 2027 $3.16 down. Heating mild. LNG rising. Geopolitical elevated. Recovery 2027 supports price declines. ME constraint Q4 key risk. Winter mild/low heating. No peak demand. Supply resilience/buffers contain volatility. Downside if escalation eases, upside if tensions rise. Data-driven: fundamentals support 2027 moderation.

  2. 2d ago

    Geographic Feature: Turkey

    Friday, October 9, 2026. TURKEY ENERGY OVERVIEW. Strategic hub, modest domestic oil/gas, rapidly expanding LNG, multiple pipelines, self-sufficiency policy. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: Jul 2026 ~128.34M cubic meters monthly (down). Sakarya Black Sea ~109M cubic meters (84.6% onshore), TPAO ~96.5%. Declining (maturing fields, maintenance). NATURAL GAS IMPORTS: Jul ~3.063B cubic meters. Pipeline ~2.869B (Azerbaijan 1.001-1.011B TANAP/BTE, Russia ~948M TurkStream/Blue Stream, Iran ~919M). LNG ~194M (Algeria). Consumption ~2.648B (industrial ~1.114B, power ~770M, residential ~376M). Exports ~197.61M (Syria ~145.4M, Bulgaria ~49.1M). Storage ~5.638B (~5.413B underground, ~225M LNG). LIQUIFIED NATURAL GAS: ~10 contracts (BP 1.6 bcm/yr, Cheniere 1.2 bcm, Shell 0.8 bcm, Mercuria 4 bcm, Equinor, JERA, others). Jan-May 2026 ~6.9M metric tons. Forecasts 2026 ~16.6 bcm, 2027 ~17.95 bcm, 2028 ~18.88 bcm. Diversification, hub ambitions, re-exports Central/E Europe/Balkans. PIPELINES: Russia ~21.75 bcm/yr (renewed), Iran ~10 bcm/yr (renewal negotiating), Turkmenistan 2026 resume, Azerbaijan TANAP/BTE (ongoing). MEDITERRANEAN: 2 FSRUs (Dörtyol double capacity, Gazipasha-Anamur). Target ~200M cubic meters/day seaborne 2 years. Existing Marmara, Aliağa, FSRUs Dörtyol/Saros. TURKEY-TRNC PIPELINE: ~101 km (~97 km offshore, Anamur-Teknecik). Oruc Reis survey early Oct. MOU Jul. 2028 target. ~3.1 bcm/yr capacity. CRUDE OIL: Jun 2026 ~127K bbl/d (stable), TPAO combined ~350K boe/d, target 550-600K by 2028. SAKARYA BLACK SEA: Phase 1 ~9.5M cubic meters/d (operational), Phase 2 Osman Gazi late 2026 target ~20M cubic meters/d, total reserves ~92.4B cubic meters. TRANSIT: Iraq oil avg 2.65M bpd, ~250K bpd via Ceyhan. BOTAŞ LNG charter 940 days. IMPORT COSTS: Aug 2026 ~$6.46B (up 33.8% YoY). Diversifying U.S. LNG. POLICY: Non-discriminatory (Russia/Azerbaijan/Turkmenistan/U.S./Algeria). SUMMARY: Hub. Crude ~127K bbl/d, TPAO 350K boe/d, target 550-600K by 2028. Sakarya Phase 1 9.5M, Phase 2 late 2026 ~20M, reserves 92.4B. Gas production 128.34M (Jul, declining), Sakarya 109M. Imports 3.063B (pipeline 2.869B, LNG 194M). Consumption 2.648B. Exports 197.61M. Storage 5.638B. LNG 10 contracts, forecasts 2026 16.6 bcm, 2028 18.88 bcm. Pipelines Russia 21.75 bcm (renewed), Iran 10 bcm (renewal). Mediterranean 2 FSRUs, target 200M cubic meters/d. Turkey-TRNC 3.1 bcm/yr. Iraq transit 250K bpd. Imports Aug $6.46B. Import-dependent, LNG expansion, hub development, Sakarya growth, self-sufficiency 2028.

  3. 3d ago

    Geographic Feature: Alabama

    Thursday, October 8, 2026. ALABAMA ENERGY OVERVIEW. Rank #16 nationally by BOE. Small but active onshore/offshore oil and natural gas sector. CRUDE OIL: Jun 2026 ~217.5K bbl monthly, May ~233.2K bbl. Wells ~5,073 (Jun), operators ~54. Conecuh County leads ~119.2K bbl (~229K MCF gas). Mobile ~40.1K bbl, Escambia ~23.4K, Clarke ~10.4K. Cumulative Mobile County ~102.6M bbl (1990+), statewide ~357M bbl oil & ~5.5B MCF gas (1990-Jun 2026). Operators: Pruet Production, Hilcorp, Exxon Mobil, ARP Production, PGP Operating, Sklar Exploration, Breitburn. NATURAL GAS: Jun ~5.6M MCF monthly, May ~5.6M MCF. Cumulative leaders Tuscaloosa, Jefferson, Lamar. Underground storage ~33.95 BCF (Jun). OFFSHORE: Baldwin Offshore ~232 bbl oil, ~1.3M MCF gas (37 wells, May). Mobile Offshore ~181 bbl oil, ~1.08M MCF gas. Negligible vs federal GoM. No major Alabama deepwater 2026 highlighted. GULF OF MEXICO CONTEXT: Federal ~1.8M bpd stable/modest growth. Deepwater 94% crude, 80% gas. Shelf declining. New projects Whale/Ballymore/Dover (2025 onstream), Salamanca/Shenandoah expansions add tens-hundreds K bpd. U.S. forecast ~13.8M bpd. GoM ~13% U.S. crude. COASTAL REVENUE: GoMESA grants Mobile/Baldwin exceeded $52M (Aug 2026). NATIONAL SHARE: ~0.07% U.S. crude, ~0.16% natural gas daily. Comparable Michigan/Mississippi. REGULATORY: Alabama Oil & Gas Board. Sep 9 example: Conecuh Barnett Field (Pruet) swabbing/pressure tests. Ongoing Conecuh/Mobile activity. SUMMARY: #16 nationally. Crude ~217.5K bbl (Jun), ~233.2K bbl (May). ~5,073 wells, ~54 operators. Conecuh leads ~119.2K bbl. Cumulative ~357M bbl, ~5.5B MCF (1990-Jun). Gas ~5.6M MCF. Storage ~33.95 BCF. Offshore Baldwin ~232 bbl, ~1.3M MCF. Negligible offshore vs federal. Federal ~1.8M bpd, deepwater 94%/80%, shelf declining. New projects add tens-hundreds K bpd. GoMESA $52M+. Onshore-dominant. Small-scale contributor.

  4. 4d ago

    Geographic Feature: Rwanda

    Wednesday, October 7, 2026. RWANDA ENERGY OVERVIEW. No commercial crude oil or conventional natural gas production. Focus Lake Kivu methane extraction, hydroelectric, solar, petroleum imports. LAKE KIVU METHANE: ~60 cubic km dissolved (shared DRC). KivuWatt ~26 MW (2015 operational), Shema Power 56 MW (public-private, $200M, 25-year). Combined ~82 MW current (~21% national electricity 2025). Expansion >100 MW announced. Rwanda-DRC bilateral targets ~700 MW total (~350 Rwanda). Extraction safety measure (limnic eruption risk mitigation). COMPRESSED NATURAL GAS: Gasmeth ~$400M partnership. Karongi plant ~95% complete (May 2026). Q3 2028 commissioning target. CNG cooking/industry/transport. 300K-400K households supply. 600-800 construction jobs. PETROLEUM IMPORTS: Historic Tanzania (Dar es Salaam) primary. NEW KENYA CORRIDOR: Gov-to-gov (Jun signed, Sep active). First 40K metric tons (Mombasa). Target 10x growth (~500-600K cubic meters per year). Northern Corridor pipeline/storage. Diversifies from Tanzania. STRATEGIC RESERVES: Current ~110M liters (~2 months consumption). Expansion target 320+ ML, long-term 400ML. Rusororo, Nyacyonga facilities. Mitigate volatility/disruption risks. ELECTRICITY: Installed ~467 MW (end-2025), 52% renewables. Double target 2034 (~1,066 MW). Hydro, solar, methane, nuclear (~110 MW 2030-2033). LAKE KIVU OIL EXPLORATION: 2D seismic 2021-2022. 13 structural pockets identified. Exploratory pre-drilling. RMB seeking international partners for 3D/drilling. Rift Valley geology, Uganda Albert Basin similarities (~3.5 km depth+). Commercial viability undetermined. SUMMARY: No commercial crude/gas. Kivu methane ~82 MW (~21% electricity), >100 MW expansion planned. Rwanda-DRC ~700 MW potential (~350 Rwanda). Gasmeth CNG Karongi Q3 2028 (300K-400K households). Kenya corridor 10x growth. Reserves 110ML expand 320+ ML. Electricity 467 MW (52% renewables), 2034 target ~1,066 MW (hydro/solar/methane/nuclear). Oil exploration 13 pockets (exploratory). Import-dependent. Methane and renewable focus.

  5. 5d ago

    Technicals: Week 40

    Tuesday, October 6, 2026 - LIVE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS. WTI CRUDE: Trading low $90s ($88-$91, four-week low pressure). Support: $84.50-$85 (50% Fib + 100-day SMA confluence - pivotal), $87.35 (near-term floor), $88.20 (swing), $82 (deeper), $80.73 (61.8% Fib). Resistance: $91.16 (near-term), $93.70 (initial), $94.13 (23.6% Fib), $95.91 (strong), $96.35 (next), $98.50 (further), $102.40 (cycle high). Pivot ~$90 flat. Critical inflection $88-$89. Indicators: RSI 37-47 (oversold), MACD negative -0.37 (bearish), MAs sell signals. Bias bearish consolidating short-term. Bullish hold $84.50 target $91-$94.13 → $96.35 → $98.50 → $102.40. Bearish fail $87.35 or $82 breakdown → $80.73 lower. BRENT CRUDE: Trading $99-$100 (consolidation after testing higher). Support: $98.54 (first), $95-$98 (trendline/channel), $87-$90 (deeper), 200-day EMA (anchor). MAs: 50-day $97-$99 (dynamic), 10/20/30-day $101-$104 (above price). Resistance: $101.73 (first), $103-$105 (psychological), $107-$110 (Fib/swings), $113-$114 (longer-term). Indicators: RSI 36-54 (mixed), MACD -0.32 to +1.31 (mixed), MAs bullish (price above multiple). Bias bullish consolidation testing support, hammer formation, regaining momentum. Bullish hold $100-$101.73 target $103-$105 → $107-$110. Bearish fail $98.54 → $95-$97 → $92-$93 (trendline/38.2% Fib major break) → $90-$87-$89. Spread maintained >$11 (maritime premium). NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub spot Oct 5 $3.07/MMBtu (+1.22%), range $3.00-$3.08. Nov futures $3.076 (Oct 4 $3.015, Oct 2 $3.035). Curve Nov $3.06, Dec $3.35, Jan 2027 $3.73. Setup above $3.05 target $3.20-$3.30; below $2.95 test $2.85; hold $2.80 baseline. 52-week range $2.48-$7.83 (mid-range current). SUMMARY: WTI consolidating bearish short-term, critical $88-$89 inflection, support $84.50-$85 strong confluence. Brent solid $100+, bullish consolidation, hold $100-$101.73 target $103-$105. Gas steady $3.00. Bias: Bearish WTI, bullish Brent, neutral gas. Chart levels paramount. Capital preservation.

  6. 6d ago

    Week 40 Opens

    Monday, October 5, 2026 - LIVE DATA. CRUDE OIL: WTI trading $90.49-$91.57 range (various sources $90.50-$91.11, neutral trend, down 0.16% prev). PolitiKool $90.50 (+57.9% YTD), EnergyRiskIQ $90.66 (-0.16% DoD), GuruFocus $90.66, TwelveData ~$89.72 (range $89.31-$90.90), Investing/MarketWatch $90.49-$91.11 (Oct 2 close $91.11, Oct 4 $90.65-$91.09). Recent: Oct 1 $92.87, Sep 30 $90.42, Sep 29 $89.38 (low-mid nineties volatility). Nov 2026 futures ~$90-$91. Up 48-58% YTD. BRENT: Trading $98.43-$103.06 range. Investing.com SA $102.13 (-0.28% DoD, range $101.94-$102.38, Oct 4 $102.42), UK variant $102.92 (+0.66%), main page $98.47 (-0.24%, range $98.43-$99.55). EIA spot Oct 1 $114.82, Sep 30 $115.91, Sep 29 $113.96 (spot lags futures). FRED Sep 29 $113.96 (up ~65% YoY). Spread Brent-WTI >$11 (maritime premium). MARKET DRIVERS: Houthi escalation ballistic/drone attacks Saudi Aramco Riyadh/Khurais (Yemen response, Saudi strikes). Yemen military Saudi major offensive retake Houthi areas (regional tension). ME exports recovered pre-war levels late Sep. G7 strategic reserve ~100M barrels release (diesel/crude supply relief tempering). Saudi Nov Asia prices six-year lows (soft demand). Tanker shortages elevated insurance longer voyages (seaborne premium). Chinese refinery suspends exports Oct (diesel/gasoline/jet fuel, refined market tight). Global inventory low, ME concerns elevate benchmarks (~40% above pre-conflict Brent comment). OPEC+ PRODUCTION: Oct 4 virtual meeting seven core (Saudi/Russia/Iraq/Kuwait/Kazakhstan/Algeria/Oman) Nov targets unchanged from Sep/Oct. Targets: Saudi 10.478M, Russia 9.949M, Iraq 4.431M, Kuwait 2.676M, Kazakhstan 1.628M, Algeria 1.007M, Oman 0.841M bpd. Aug actual 25M core (+630k Jul, ~5M below pre-conflict Feb). OPEC+ 38.05M (+300k Jul). Actual Gulf below targets (Hormuz disruptions). Voluntary cuts 2M bpd through 2026 end. Sep MOMR latest (Aug data), no Oct released. Next Nov 1. NATURAL GAS: Spot Sep 29 $3.18/MMBtu (latest official). Earlier Sep 28 $3.13, Sep 25 $3.21. NYMEX futures Oct 4-5 $3.01-$3.04 (Oct 4 close ~$3.012 -0.76%, Oct 2 $3.035, Investing Oct 5 $3.042 intraday, Oct 5 close ~$3.032). 52-week range ~$2.48-$7.83. WTI bounces low $90s (~$90.50-$91.27, neutral/slight positive day). Brent holds firm $100-$103 futures, spot $114+. Houthis escalate geopolitical support risk. OPEC maintains Nov targets unchanged (production steady, actual Gulf constrained). G7 reserves release tempering. Tanker premium persists (Hormuz). Week 40 opens cautious, geopolitical volatility, capital preservation paramount.

  7. Oct 1

    Geographic Feature: State of Montana

    Thursday, October 1, 2026. MONTANA ENERGY OVERVIEW. Ranks #8 U.S. by BOE (barrels of oil equivalent). CRUDE OIL: June 2026 ~1.8M bbl monthly, current ~78k bbl/d (EIA), ~6,835 producing wells (Jul 2026), #12 nationally (~45k+ total wells). BAKKEN UNCONVENTIONAL: Bakken/Williston Basin 1.21M bbl/d (Sep 2026), associated gas 3.36M Mcf/d. Montana monthly 2026: Jan 77k, Feb 79k, Mar 79k, Apr 82k, May 77k, Jun 69k, Jul 69k bbl/d. Drilling 58 wells drilled, 69 completed/month. DUC 230. Bakken >50% state output. Range-bound ~1.2M bbl/d, below peak, increasing gas content. NATURAL GAS: June 2026 ~8.0M MCF monthly, #20 nationally. COAL (declining): YTD 2026 (Aug 1) 12.366M short tons, down 13.2% vs 2025 (14.254M). Weekly WY+MT early Sep 5.07M (+3.4% WoW, +7.5% YoY), mid-late Sep 4.5M (Sep 19, +2.25% WoW, -0.7% YoY). Major projects Spring Creek (Decker) expansion, Bull Mountains (federal-approved, legal challenges). Reserves most recoverable U.S. coal. Down 36% from 2014 peak. PRB dominates Western production. FEDERAL LEASING: BLM July 2026 66 parcels, ~29,087 acres (MT+ND). REGULATORY: DNRC/BOGC official (permits, wells, records, hearings). Data Miner online database. Quarterly leasing. Open GIS data. Montana Petroleum Assoc rules/regulatory resources. ENERGY SUMMARY: #8 nationally BOE. Bakken >50% oil (~78k bbl/d, 1.8M bbl Jun). Gas 8M MCF. Coal declining YTD -13.2% (12.4M short tons). Reserves abundant. Regulatory active. Mixed crude/gas growth, coal wind-down.

Ratings & Reviews

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out of 5
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About

Energy Markets Daily delivers essential intelligence for global energy capital. Hosted with institutional authority, this daily brief covers WTI/Brent crude analysis, natural gas markets, energy M&A activity, drilling intelligence, and the geopolitical developments that drive billion-dollar energy decisions. Providing superior energy market intelligence sourced from the same trading floors, boardrooms, and energy desks where your competition operates. Essential listening for oil & gas executives, energy investors, and institutional capital allocating $100M+ in the energy sector. Contact: energymarkets@protonmail.com Disclaimer: This podcast is powered by Daily Dominance and utilizes artificial intelligence technology for content creation and production. The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Daily Dominance. All content is generated with the intent to provide informative and engaging material; however, the accuracy and reliability of the information presented may vary. Listeners are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with professionals before making any decisions based on the content of this podcast. By listening to this podcast, you acknowledge and agree to these terms.

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