VREF | The Truth About the Aviation Market

Jason Zilberbrand

Up-to-date information on the state of the aviation marketplace and it's effect on aircraft valuation by the leader in aircraft valuation: VREF Aircraft Value Reference, Appraisal & Litigation Services

  1. EPISODE 19 | The Ladder Is Gone: Why New Aircraft No Longer Make Sense the Way They Used To | 1/14/26

    1D AGO

    EPISODE 19 | The Ladder Is Gone: Why New Aircraft No Longer Make Sense the Way They Used To | 1/14/26

    Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Episode Overview In this episode, Jason breaks down a shift many people in aviation feel but haven’t fully named yet: the traditional progression from one aircraft to the next is gone. For decades, aviation ownership followed a ladder. You started somewhere reasonable, stretched your mission, and moved up as experience, income, and need grew. That ladder quietly disappeared — not because of failure, but because OEMs intentionally redesigned the market around fewer buyers, higher margins, and emotionally driven pricing. This episode explains why new aircraft prices no longer align with capability, why product lines no longer guide buyers forward, and why confusion in today’s market isn’t a lack of knowledge — it’s a lack of transparency about how the rules changed. Jason walks through pistons, turboprops, light jets, and large-cabin aircraft to show how new airplanes have become luxury goods, while used aircraft have become the true transportation assets — and why misunderstanding that distinction is where buyers get hurt. What You’ll Discover in This Episode Why the traditional “step-up” ladder in aviation officially no longer existsHow OEMs intentionally shifted toward fewer buyers with more money — and why they won’t reverse courseWhy million-dollar piston aircraft aren’t about transportation anymoreWhat the $1.8M Mooney really represents — and who it’s actually built forThe psychological difference between mission-based buyers and identity-based buyersWhy Cirrus sells certainty while Mooney sells identity — and how that shapes pricingThe hidden reason turboprops became the real entry point for serious buyersWhy pistons become emotionally exhausting above certain price thresholdsHow turboprops quietly win on trust, predictability, and ownership psychologyWhy light jets stopped being stepping stones and became “containment devices”How VLJs transformed from democratization tools into status anchorsThe dangerous $12–$18M decision zone where logic, ego, and mission creep collideWhat the Citation Ascend, HondaJet Echelon, and Denali reveal about OEM strategyJason’s Truth “New aircraft are no longer stepping stones. They’re luxury goods. Used aircraft are the real transportation assets. Confusing the two is expensive. Understanding the difference is power.” Key Themes Discussed OEM margin strategy vs. buyer mission alignmentIdentity-driven purchasing vs. utility-driven ownershipEmotional insurance and its impact on valuationWhy scarcity narratives break when confidence shiftsHow cycles punish emotional pricing and reward disciplineBrought to You By VREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals When new prices stop making sense, valuation discipline matters more than ever. Whether you’re buying, selling, financing, or trying to understand where the market is actually headed, VREF keeps you grounded in facts — not emotional anchors. Know what an aircraft is really worth before the market reminds you the hard way. Visit vref.com to get started. Complete podcasts can be found at https://vref.com/podcast/

    35 min
  2. EPISODE 18 | Is Aviation Ready for AI? | 1/5/26

    JAN 5

    EPISODE 18 | Is Aviation Ready for AI? | 1/5/26

    Episode Overview Artificial intelligence is coming for aviation — fast… But is the industry actually ready for it? In Episode 18 of The Truth About the Market, Jason tackles one of the most requested topics of the year and strips away the hype to examine the real constraints, risks, and opportunities AI presents across aviation. This is not a futurist fantasy episode. It’s a grounded, experience-driven look at what AI can do, what it can’t, and why the industry’s biggest obstacles aren’t technical — they’re structural, legal, and human. In this episode, Jason breaks down: Why aviation needs AI more than almost any other industry — and simultaneously resists it harder than mostHow fragmented data, paper logbooks, proprietary systems, and inconsistent records undermine AI effectivenessWhy OCR, digitization, and “AI-powered” platforms are not the same as clean, usable intelligenceThe danger of AI becoming a sophisticated guessing engine when fed imperfect or biased dataWhy liability — not technology — is the real reason AI adoption is slow in aviationHow scraped listings, inferred comps, and broker-built AI tools distort valuation and introduce financial riskWhere AI will make real, near-term impact:Predictive maintenanceReal-time operational intelligenceTraining and adaptive simulationInventory and supply-chain optimizationFraud detection in pre-buys and maintenance recordsWhy AI will not replace appraisers — but will absolutely expose bad data, bad actors, and bad assumptionsThe difference between AI as a decision-support tool versus AI as a sales weaponWhat aviation actually needs for AI to work:Standardized data formatsClear responsibility and liability rulesCybersecurity hardeningHuman-in-the-loop integrationRegulatory explainability and auditabilityWhy aviation doesn’t fear automation — it fears unexplainable automationWhat the next decade realistically looks like for AI adoption across GA, business aviation, and commercial fleetsA real-world auto-land event that marks a turning point for AI-augmented flight safetyWhy the future isn’t human or machine — it’s human judgment augmented by machine intelligenceThe Bottom Line AI isn’t here to replace aviation professionals. It’s here to replace professionals who refuse to evolve. Those who treat AI as a tool — grounded in verified data, professional standards, and accountability — will operate safer, smarter, and more efficiently. Those chasing hype, shortcuts, or narrative-driven automation will introduce risk the market will eventually punish. As always, this episode is sponsor-free, opinionated, and grounded in real-world aviation experience — not press releases or pitch decks. Complete Show Podcasts and show notes can be found at https://vref.com/podcast/

    37 min
  3. EPISODE 17 | ’Twas the Night Before Christmas… and the Market Remembered Gravity | 12/22/25

    12/22/2025

    EPISODE 17 | ’Twas the Night Before Christmas… and the Market Remembered Gravity | 12/22/25

    Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF Episode Overview In this end-of-year Christmas special, Jason steps back from valuations, depreciation curves, and transactional warfare to reflect on the year that aviation finally remembered gravity. Delivered through a poetic cold-open that rewrites ’Twas the Night Before Christmas for the aircraft industry, this episode blends humor, honesty, and hard-earned perspective as Jason unpacks the three forces that quietly shaped 2025: the privacy upheaval, the market cool-down, and the real story behind the “pilot shortage.” Jason also explores the deep challenges facing general aviation—from hangar scarcity to training-aircraft inflation—and shares a unforgettable story involving Santa Claus, an ADS-B-silent sleigh, and one of the strangest appraisals ever requested. This episode closes the year with clarity: what actually happened, what it means, and what aviation needs to carry into 2026. What You’ll Discover in This Episode Why 2025 wasn’t a crash, a boom, or a bubble — it was a recalibrationHow the FAA’s new privacy rules (Section 803) quietly made aircraft transactions harderThe irony of “increased privacy” in a world where ADS-B broadcasts every moveWhy buyers regained their voice — and sellers had to rediscover realityThe three silent forces that shaped the market all yearHow the pilot shortage isn’t one shortage at all, but a mismatch across the entire systemWhy training aircraft skyrocketed in value — and why it wasn’t irrationalHow hangar scarcity became one of the biggest hidden market driversWhy experimental aviation is thriving while certified GA struggles under cost and complexityThe aviation appraisal Santa never expected to do — and why the sleigh needed a valuationThe final truth of the year: markets run on facts, not myths Jason’s Truth “Yesterday’s market is not a price. It’s a memory. And this year, aviation had to relearn that gravity applies to values, to expectations, and to all of us.” Mentioned in This Episode FAA Section 803 (2024 Reauthorization Act)ADS-B tracking and privacy reformTraining aircraft inflation (Skyhawks, Archers, Warriors)Hangar space shortages across the U.S.Pilot-workforce mismatchGeneral aviation vs. experimental innovationSanta’s sleigh — and its suspiciously flawless logbooksVREF Online / VREF Appraisal Services The entire VREF Podcast Series and show notes can be found at https://vref.com/podcast/ Brought to You By VREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. Whether you’re buying, selling, financing, or planning for the year ahead, VREF keeps you grounded in data that matters. Get accurate, defensible, real-time aircraft values at vref.com.

    12 min
  4. Episode 16 | Aviation’s New Privacy Crisis: How ADS-B, FAA Reform & Public Tracking Are Colliding | 10/15/25

    12/15/2025

    Episode 16 | Aviation’s New Privacy Crisis: How ADS-B, FAA Reform & Public Tracking Are Colliding | 10/15/25

    Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President & CTO, VREF Episode Overview In this episode, Jason takes you deep into one of the most consequential — and least understood — shifts happening in aviation right now: the privacy war brewing between the FAA, public flight-tracking, ADS-B technology, corporate secrecy, celebrity security, and a century-old registry system built on transparency. For the first time in U.S. aviation history, aircraft owners can legally hide their names and addresses from the public Aircraft Registry. At the same time, anyone with a $50 receiver and a Wi-Fi connection can track nearly every movement an aircraft makes. That collision — secrecy vs. transparency — is starting to reshape how aircraft are bought, sold, financed, insured, researched, and verified. Jason breaks down why this is happening, who pushed for it, what it fixes, what it breaks, and how it could fundamentally disrupt the entire transactional backbone of general and business aviation. This is not just a policy update. It’s a structural shift with real consequences for buyers, sellers, brokers, lenders, escrow agents, fleet operators, lawyers, insurers, and appraisers. If you want to understand what’s coming before deals start falling apart, this is the episode you don’t skip. What You’ll Discover in This Episode Why the FAA’s new 2024 Reauthorization Act allows owners to hide their identities — and why that is a seismic break from 100 years of aviation transparencyHow ADS-B tracking turned aircraft movements into public entertainment — and a serious security riskThe real-world stalking, robberies, and legal fights that forced the FAA to take privacy seriouslyThe rise of celebrity jet-tracking accounts — and the national-security implications nobody saw comingWhy foreign owners, corporations, and family offices quietly demanded these privacy reformsHow public tracking data has been weaponized for business intelligence, corporate espionage, and competitive monitoringWhy hiding ownership creates new problems for lenders, escrow agents, insurers, and brokersHow missing registry data threatens the reliability of valuations, lien searches, and chain-of-title verificationThe unintended consequence: we may break the aviation transaction ecosystem without meaning toWhy privacy protections must evolve faster than fraudThe upcoming “identity drought” — and how the industry will need new verification standardsWhat every buyer, seller, and broker must prepare for as the registry shifts from “open book” to “information blackout”Jason’s Truth “When transparency collapses before the industry can replace it with something reliable, we don’t create privacy — we create chaos. Aviation transactions are built on trust, and trust is built on verifiable information. Remove enough of that, and the entire system begins to wobble.” Mentioned in This Episode... Full show notes and podcasts can be found at https://vref.com/podcast/ Brought to You By VREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. When privacy reforms and fragmented data make transactions more complex, accurate valuations and verified history matter more than ever. Know what your aircraft is really worth — and protect your deal with defensible data — at vref.com.

    20 min
  5. EPISODE 15 | The Six Brokers You’ll Meet in Aviation (and How They Quietly Shape Every Deal) | 12/9/25

    12/09/2025

    EPISODE 15 | The Six Brokers You’ll Meet in Aviation (and How They Quietly Shape Every Deal) | 12/9/25

    Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President & CTO, VREF Episode Overview In this eye-opening episode, Jason reveals one of the least discussed — yet most influential — forces in every aircraft transaction: the broker. Not the airplane. Not the market. Not the valuation model. The broker. Using a fictional—but extremely realistic—2012 Citation CJ3, Jason demonstrates how six different broker archetypes can turn the same airplane into six completely different stories. The asset never changes. But the narrative does. And the person telling the story often determines whether a deal becomes effortless… or collapses in confusion, friction, and regret. Whether you’re buying your first piston single or your third large-cabin jet, this episode will permanently change the way you evaluate brokers — and the way you listen when one starts talking. What You’ll Discover in This Episode The single biggest misconception new buyers have about aircraft sales — and why the broker, not the airplane, dictates your experience.How two buyers can inquire about the same CJ3 on the same day… and walk away believing they saw two completely different airplanes.The “Bedroom Broker” — how enthusiasm replaces structure, and how deals drift when the captain isn’t actually captaining anything.The broker type Jason calls “the adult in the room”… and why their deals almost always close smoothly.The Boiler Room Machine — the high-volume pitch that overwhelms buyers with PDFs, pressure, and follow-ups… but rarely with accuracy.The rise of the “Self-Accredited Guru” — brand-first brokers who sell inspirational narratives instead of aircraft.Jason’s favorite archetype: the Invisible Assassin — the broker who never posts selfies, never sells hype, and always arrives with flawless logs and zero friction.The Industry Celebrity — polished, visible, connected… and often shockingly light on technical depth.The surprising reason deals fall apart — and why it’s rarely the price, the airplane, or the market.The one rule that separates elite brokers from amateurs — and why it has nothing to do with charisma.Jason’s Truth “The aircraft never changes. The logs don’t change. The gear-up history doesn’t change. Only the story changes — and the person telling that story determines whether you get the truth or a fairy tale with an asking price.” Mentioned in This Episode 2012 Citation CJ3 (fictional example)TAP BlueGTN 750Xi upgradeDoc 10 inspectionsBroker archetypes across piston, turboprop, and jet marketsComplete show notes and podcast can be found at https://vref.com/news/the-six-brokers-youll-meet-in-aviation-and-how-they-quietly-shape-every-deal Brought to You By VREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. Whether you’re navigating your first purchase or leading a complex fleet acquisition, VREF keeps you grounded in objective, defensible, data-driven valuations. Know what your aircraft is really worth before you buy, sell, or finance — at vref.com.

    22 min
  6. EPISODE 14 | The Weirdest Aviation Market We’ve Seen in Years | 12/2/25

    12/02/2025

    EPISODE 14 | The Weirdest Aviation Market We’ve Seen in Years | 12/2/25

    Episode Overview In this episode, Jason breaks down one of the strangest dynamics to hit aviation in more than a decade — a market that’s slowing down and speeding up at the exact same time. Total transactions are falling… yet the best aircraft are selling faster than they have in years. If you want to understand the real state of the aviation market going into 2026 — not the noise, not the headline spin — this is the episode to hear. This is the truth behind the bifurcation: a clean split between good airplanes and everything else, disciplined buyers and hopeful sellers, supported aircraft with pedigree and those quietly slipping into unsellable territory. Jason unpacks why this market is behaving unlike any cycle we’ve seen — and what it means for values, inventory, operators, lenders, and anyone trying to buy or sell in the next 18 months. What You’ll Discover in This Episode Why the 2025–2026 market is “separating” — not collapsing And how the entire industry is reorganizing itself around that split.Why total transactions are down 17%… but top-tier aircraft are flying off the market in record time And what that contradiction actually means.The silent panic behind the scenes as some sellers still cling to 2021 pricing fantasiesThe surprising aircraft segments with the biggest drops in Days on Market — including one that fell from 105 days to 49Why turnkey aircraft with pedigree are disappearing instantly — while “projects” are becoming nearly unsellableHow a G550 market that had 50+ options suddenly went to zeroWhy the ACJ, 400XP, and GIV markets look completely different than they did a year agoHow shrinking inventory sets up a major snap-back in 2026 when rates fallWhy some new aircraft are UP 12% in value… while mid-aged aircraft are DOWN 13%Why older aircraft are strangely stable — and which fleets are quietly hitting the bottom of their depreciation curveThe real reason costs are exploding across the industry (and why it’s structural, not temporary)What’s actually driving the boom in regional 135 operators — and why their buying power is reshaping the entire used marketWhy off-market deals are rising again — and why almost every long-range sale is happening privatelyHow lenders are thinking heading into 2026 — and why financing will get easier, but not cheaperJason’s Truth “This isn’t a boom and it isn’t a bust — it’s a sorting market. Good airplanes are going to keep selling fast. Mediocre airplanes are going to keep dropping in price. Unsupported airplanes are going to keep sitting. And the buyers who understand that will dominate 2026.” Complete Podcast and show notes can be found at https://vref.com/news/the-weirdest-aviation-market-weve-seen-in-years/ Brought to You By VREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. Whether you operate a piston single, run a fleet, or manage a long-range jet program, VREF keeps you grounded in the only thing that matters: the data. Know what your aircraft is really worth — before you buy, sell, or finance — at vref.com.

    22 min
  7. EPISODE 13 | Aviation, Gratitude, and a Global Express | 11/25/25

    11/25/2025

    EPISODE 13 | Aviation, Gratitude, and a Global Express | 11/25/25

    Podcast: The Truth About the Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President & CTO, VREF Episode Overview In this Thanksgiving special, Jason steps away from depreciation curves, absorption rates, and market chaos to talk about something aviation doesn’t celebrate nearly enough: gratitude. But don’t worry — this isn’t some soft, sentimental detour. This is an episode about the real aviation world we all live in: the chaos, the beauty, the people who keep airplanes flying, the market that refuses to die, and the stories that could only ever happen in this industry. Including the true story of the time Jason simultaneously cooked a Thanksgiving turkey and negotiated the sale of a Global Express with a buyer in Turkey. Episode 13 is part celebration, part confession, part industry-wide love letter — and part reminder that aviation is still here, still resilient, and still miraculous, even in its messiest moments. What You’ll Discover in This Episode Why aviation has perfect comedic timing — and an uncanny ability to humble you at the exact moment you feel invincibleThe overlooked everyday miracles of flyingThe PT6 spool-up.The sunrise on a frozen ramp.The quiet intensity of a controller juggling 18 airplanes and four emergencies.The real backbone of aviation — the invisible people who keep the entire system aliveMechanics. Line techs. Instructors. Avionics wizards. Dispatchers. Ramp crews.The people who show up long before and long after anyone else.The giant truth aviation professionals never say out loud: we are terrible at gratitudeWhy the aviation market simply refuses to die — even after recessions, pandemics, supply-chain collapses, interest rate spikes, and predictions of doomHow passion — not spreadsheets — has kept general and business aviation unbreakableWhy private aviation will always outcompete commercial airlines (and why TSA practically guarantees it)The human side of aircraft values — what every VREF number actually representsA widow settling her husband’s estate.A mechanic keeping a dream alive.A broker grinding until 3 a.m. to get the deal closed.The Thanksgiving Day Global Express story Jason has never told beforeHow he cooked a turkey…while fielding a real-time offer…from a buyer in Turkey…for a large-cabin jet…on a holiday…with a kitchen full of guests.Why, after everything the industry has endured, aviation is still standing — tired, bruised, more expensive than ever… but standingJason’s Truth “Aviation only works because humans show up with pride. Aluminum doesn’t hold this industry together — people do. And passion, more than economics, is why aviation is still here.”... Complete show notes can be found at https://vref.com/news/episode-13-aviation-gratitude-and-a-global-express-11-25-25 Brought to You By VREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. Whether you fly a piston single or manage a business jet fleet, VREF keeps you grounded in data that matters. Know what your aircraft is really worth — before you buy, sell, or finance — at vref.com.

    14 min
  8. EPISODE 12 | Why Your First Airplane Is (Probably) the Wrong Airplane | 11/20/25

    11/20/2025

    EPISODE 12 | Why Your First Airplane Is (Probably) the Wrong Airplane | 11/20/25

    Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREF, ASA appraiser, expert witness, 30+ years in aviation. Episode Overview In this episode, Jason pulls back the curtain on one of the most common (and expensive) patterns in aviation: the first airplane someone wants to buy is almost always more airplane than they actually need. From turbocharged SR22s to pressurized pistons with FIKI, Jason unpacks how identity, ego, and fantasy missions push first-time buyers into aircraft that outpace their experience, budget, and real-world flying habits. Instead of shaming the mistake, he explains why it happens, how the “honeymoon period” with a new airplane can wreck a budget, and what you can do to avoid becoming the person who buys their first airplane and sells it six months later in a panic. What You’ll Discover in This Episode Why first-time buyers almost always fall in love with the wrong airplane—and the psychological bias behind it that no one thinks applies to them.The hidden reason the airplane you want at midnight on Controller.com is rarely the airplane you can actually live with.The “honeymoon trap” that quietly turns brand-new owners into desperate sellers within 6 months.Why many “must-have” capabilities—FIKI, turbos, pressurization—become the most dangerous liabilities when you’re new to ownership.The surprising truth about what capability actually costs… and why manufacturers market it as safety.The real reason pressurized piston aircraft vanished from modern production—and why most owners never get told the truth.How to know whether an airplane supports your flying life… or silently owns you.The SR22 Turbo dilemma—and why so many first-time buyers unknowingly set themselves up to fly less, not more.The one question that instantly reveals the aircraft you should buy (and the one you should run from)....moreThe full Podocast with complete show notes can be seen here https://vref.com/news/episode-12-why-your-first-airplane-is-probably-the-wrong-airplane-11-20-25/ Jason’s Truth “Your first airplane should be built for the life you’re actually living now—not the one you’re auditioning for. The airplane that fits your mission will support you. The airplane that outpaces your mission will own you.” Mentioned in This Episode Cessna 182Beech Debonair / early BonanzaPiper ArrowMooney M20JGrumman TigerCirrus SR22 / SR22 TurboFIKI, turbocharging, pressurization systemsWarren Buffett & “No Plane No Gain” campaignBrought to You By VREF — The Trusted Name in Aircraft Valuations and Appraisals. Whether you’re a first-time buyer looking at a 182 or a seasoned operator trading into a turbine, VREF keeps you grounded in data that matters. Know what your aircraft is really worth—before you buy, sell, or finance—at vref.com.

    27 min

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Up-to-date information on the state of the aviation marketplace and it's effect on aircraft valuation by the leader in aircraft valuation: VREF Aircraft Value Reference, Appraisal & Litigation Services

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