Blain's Morning Porridge

Bill Blain
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Bill Blain is well know market commentator and has published the daily Morning Porridge explaining markets sincee 2007. This podcast is a daily update of the Porridge.

  1. 2h ago

    How to Win Cowes Week Sailing…. 

    Blain’s Morning Porridge, August 5th, 2026 “I spent it all on fast boats, fast cars and fast women, and squandered the rest…”  As we fearfully watch the markets as the liabilities and exaggerations of AI threaten to unravel, or ponder what games arch-manipulator Scotty Bessant is playing with the Yen… there are times to sit back and wonder what life is really all about? The answer is in doing what makes you happy. In my case its sailing… Instead of trying to explain markets, let me run through how the yacht I was sailing just won Vintage Class at the 200th Cowes Week Sailing Regatta.  Key takeaways: A well-prepared yacht, a crew that know their jobs, and the ambition to win.The importance of a plan and communicating it.Being adaptable, eyes in and out the boat, and prepared for the “punch in the mouth” moment.Not being surprised when surprised. Taking advantages of opportunities and not making mistakes.Win by enjoying yourself. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

  2. 5d ago

    What Chance Burnham of fixing Broken Britain

    Blain’s Morning Porridge July 31st, 2026 “Judge me by how many times I fell down and got right back up again.” Fifty years of political dither leaves the UK looking broken. Faced with massive constrains from taxation and bond markets, there are limited choices from tinkering with spending while trying to look good enough ahead of the next election. Britain needs something more radical – and a complete reform of the system and process.  Key Takeaways  The steepness of yield curves reflects not only inflation concerns, but rising doubts on political stability.Long-term sustainability of bond markets relies on political credibility.The UK’s major problem is not political policy – but the bureaucracy and process around it.Lubricate the wheels of the economy by fixing the process and it will work better.Housing could be a great example of how to boost the economy. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

  3. Jul 29

    AI is dead. Long Live AI. 

    Blain’s Morning Porridge July 29th, 2026 - AI is dead. Long Live AI.  “Remember…. All I am offering is the truth. Nothing more.” Markets are all-a-wobble as the AI revolution morphs from a picks and shovels Klondike into a “who is going to make most money” proposition. About time. Who will be the winners and losers in the long-term. In the short-term there is going to be pain and losses as the current high-water retreats.  Key takeaways this morning: Apple becomes No 1 Stock because it stood still.Winners will be firms that best integrate AI into their business and boost the bottom line.Losers will stem from leverage plays, collateral and capacity issues as the market continues to evolve and shift tracks.AI boom is not just a Tech story – it’s also geopolitical as China is set to take large part of market. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

  4. Jul 27

    Investing in UK Defence to Grow the Economy and protect the Nation.

    Blain’s Morning Porridge, July 27th, 2026 “Are investment returns more important than security?” The UK has 6 relatively new “mega” Local Government Pension Schemes. They are investing in the UK and globally. But are they focused on the right things? Less than 10% of their significant PE assets are managed by UK based firms. They are giving their money to US firms – further deepening the negative feedback loop diminishing UK capital markets. The protection of the State is the primary duty of all governments. It is in the interest of all participants in the economy that conflict is minimised – and the only way to discourage aggression is to be prepared to fight. It is therefore an area to invest in. There is a really interesting article in yesterday’s Sunday Times, an interview with the CEO of Border to Coast, the UK’s largest pension fund. Rachel Elwell has £120 bln to invest on behalf of its pension savers – local authority funds that represent the employees of 18 local government pension schemes (LGPS) from Cumbria across the North to the Tyne, and down the East Coast to Sussex. She wants to invest local.   Meanwhile, new Premier Andy Burnham has been getting a tough time, being asked difficult questions about what his No 10 North is going to achieve. The Torygraph basically says Burnham is guilty of treachery for even thinking about moving jobs to Madchester. Aye… back when I were a lad…. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

  5. Jul 24

    The Judder Moment in Oil, AI and the Presidency… 

    Blain’s Morning Porridge July 24th, 2026 “Regime Change usually leads to chaos.” The next few months are going to get interesting as markets react to the ongoing mess that is the Gulf, rising oil prices, wobbling stocks, rising bond yields, broken supply chains, and the reassessment of the AI “revolution”. Meanwhile, the US political cycle goes into the Mid-Terms. I would suggest everyone reads Regime Change, the new book on Imperial Trump, to understand what the last 18 months has been about.  I predict the coming three months will become increasingly “interesting” in the Chinese sense of the word. There was a clear judder moment yesterday felt around global markets as the scale of the Iran War reversal became clear. It’s a wild fire that won’t stay out. It’s widened to include the Houthis threating the Red Sea choke point, the Bab-el-Mandeb, pushing oil back over $100. Its triggered renewed fears of inflation and supply chain dislocation. Interest rates are now expected to rise – at a time when the driver of the current market strength; the AI infrastructure capital free-for-all looks to be slowing. Stock markets slid and bond yields rose. That loud bang you heard might have been the AI Bubble popping. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

  6. Jul 23

    AI, Cheap Money, Tesla and Coffee.

    Blain’s Morning Porridge 23rd July 2026 “There is only one thing worse than having too little money, and that is having too much.” It’s a wake up and smell the coffee sort of morning in the AI markets. AI is here to stay. Everyone is using it. Why are prices tanking? It’s about competition, adoption and data sovereignty. Maybe it’s time for a rethink? How did it get so huge so fast? That’s a question about overly cheap liquidity and speculation, which is why Tesla’s numbers are so interesting.  Yesterday Google confirmed the pace of its AI infrastructure spend will increase to $205 bln dollars next year. Second quarter income hit $112 bln, but it’s eaten into free-cash flow to the tune of negative $6bln while raising more debt, to “capitalise on the AI opportunity,” said the CFO. Exactly what is that opportunity? The other hyperscalers will say much the same thing when they report on Thursday next week. Collectively the four hyperscalers are expected to spend upwards of three-quarters of a trillion dollars next year on data centres, networks, energy, water and chips. The rest of the AI sector reports next month, when we’ll learn more about adoption and the picks and shovels of the current investment Klondike. Collectively they are taking so much liquidity out the capital markets bond analysts believe the scale of the AI build-out underlies the current steepness of the US yield curve – the AI spend is “crowding out” the US government. It is the biggest private investment programme in global history. But suddenly it feels a little wobbly. What comes next in AI? You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

  7. Jul 22

    Burnham’s New Regime and Why Social Housing could be a winner!

    Blain’s Morning Porridge July 22nd, 2026 “Here comes the new boss, same as the old boss…” Regime Change occurred in the UK with relatively a few headless corpses left on the field of political failure… Burham is juggling with talent, spending and tax constraints, to maintain confidence. To succeed he needs to get radical. Social Housing is one avenue to growth he could pull off, and it could be funded off-balance sheet. The UK ain’t finished yet!  We are at a very interesting point in the markets… with so many potential flashpoints threatening to erupt into crises – which will prove minor speedbumps? What will be the consequences as the Iran crisis deepens with the Houthis about to open a second front in the Red Sea? What would a full-blown reversal of the AI narrative do to the US economy as the new Chinese Open-Weight models threaten to overturn the expectations around adoption, profits and spending? All Topics for later this week as I catch up from a brief sailing break. Let’s start with matters close to home in the UK where our fractured politics have become a case-study in topsy-turvy modern politics. Will the new “improved” Burnham Labour V2.1 regime make it any more successful than the already forgotten Starmer/Reeves effort? You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

  8. Jul 20

    A market running downwind hard and fast is a dangerous thing

    Blain’s Morning Porridge 20th, July 2026 “The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist revels in it; the realist adjusts the sails.” There may be multiple storms and whirlpools on the horizon, but the market remains convinced it will weather them all. That’s a sign of dangerous times. There are times to let the boat run free, and times to trim the sails and slow before something breaks with catastrophic consequences: will it be the AI Bubble, Debt, Iran & Oil, or a No-See-Um?  Sorry for all the sailing allusions today, but we’re sailing for home after a fantastic week on the Solent. Well done Spain! How did Trump stay awake? I didn’t. You need to be an optimist to play this market. And an optimist you need to be, because market returns are not based on the brilliance of your own utterly brilliant analysis, but on what the whole herd of the market collectively believes – which is “nothing to overly worry about”. Contrarians are only right when the crowd is proved wrong – which doesn’t happen as much as it should (for reasons discussed below.) The best investors are the ones who can strip out the crowd’s noise – often by taking long-term “patient” views on the basis even the market crowd cannot resist the long-term consequences of financial gravity. I’ve been thinking about it while sailing in the bright sunshine weather on the South Coast of England. I constantly see parallels between reading the markets and the tau of using the weather and tides to drive the boat. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

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About

Bill Blain is well know market commentator and has published the daily Morning Porridge explaining markets sincee 2007. This podcast is a daily update of the Porridge.

Information

  • Creator
    Bill Blain
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    148
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Bill Blain
  • Show Website
    Blain's Morning Porridge

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