The Cattle Market Guys Podcast

Cattle Market Guys by Herd Advisor
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Brock and Jim break down the week’s cattle market news, trends, and forecasts with a mix of data-driven insight and 40 years of ranching wisdom. Published three times a week by Herd Advisor, each episode blends hard numbers and real-world experience to help cow-calf producers make smarter, more profitable marketing decisions.

  1. 1d ago

    Cattle Market Guys - Tuesday Check In 6-2-2026

    A screwworm detection just 31 miles from the US border has USDA on high alert — and for a cattle herd already at historically tight supply levels, the timing couldn't be worse. If this parasite crosses into the United States, the damage to an already fragile rebuilding cycle could be severe. In this Tuesday market update, Brock and Jim break down a meaningful two-week price pullback in feeder steers, with five-weight cattle dropping roughly $18 and six-weights falling approximately $20 from early May levels. Forward projections point to additional softness in the two-week window — particularly a sharp dip on six-weight steers to $378.44 per hundredweight — before prices begin to recover heading into the four-week mark. Beyond the weekly numbers, Brock and Jim examine where the US cattle herd stands in the broader cattle cycle. The herd is entering early-stage expansion, but historical patterns show that slaughter volumes and beef production typically decline before they recover — a counterintuitive dynamic that caught many producers off guard in past cycles. Drought conditions across the Lower 48 are complicating the rebuild, with pasture coverage moving in the wrong direction. On the demand side, CME futures sold off sharply on consumer spending concerns and fuel prices before rebounding on technical buying — a pattern that reflects genuine uncertainty about beef affordability as pork and other proteins compete for wallet share at the meat case.

    11 min

  2. 5d ago

    Cattle Market Guys - Week Wrap Up 5-29-2026

    Cattle futures whipped in three different directions in a single week — and the forces driving that volatility have serious implications for producers with cattle to move this summer. With higher-than-expected feedlot placements, elevated fuel prices hammering consumer purchasing power, and pork cutout values quietly climbing, the beef demand picture is flashing yellow. In this Friday wrap for the week of May 29th, 2026, Brock and Jim break down a turbulent week across cattle markets. The data shows feeder steer prices softening from May highs, with model forecasts pointing to a meaningful step-down over the next four weeks — the lighter 500-549 pound class is projected to drop from $443 at one week out to $408 at four weeks, a gap that represents real money on any size pen. Brock and Jim dig into what's driving that trajectory: bearish placement numbers, fuel-driven consumer anxiety, and early signs of protein substitution toward chicken and pork. The episode also covers major corporate news in meat processing, including Tyson Foods replacing its CEO amid underperformance in its beef segment, while Hormel beats estimates on the strength of poultry demand. Brock and Jim discuss what a leadership shake-up at the country's largest beef packer could mean for procurement and cash price relationships. The bottom line this week: producers with cattle to market in the next four to six weeks are advised not to wait for a better number that may not come.

    11 min

  3. May 26

    Cattle Market Guys - Tuesday Check In 5-26-2026

    Feeder cattle futures hit limit down after the USDA's May cattle on feed report landed sharply above market expectations — and the selloff didn't stop there. For producers with cattle to move this summer, the price risk picture changed fast, and Brock and Jim break down exactly what happened and what it means. In this Tuesday Market Update, Brock and Jim open with a detailed look at feeder steer prices across weight classes, where cash markets have been softening throughout May and model projections point to further declines in the weeks ahead. They walk through the USDA cattle on feed report that caught traders offside, the simultaneous softening in consumer demand sentiment around Memorial Day, and why the gap between cash and futures deserves close attention right now. The conversation then shifts to the longer-term supply picture — with the U.S. beef cow herd near record lows, USDA projecting a beef production decline in 2027, and drought conditions adding further pressure, the structural case for strong prices remains intact even as near-term futures pull back. Brock and Jim also cover a packed global trade week: the Mexico-EU free trade agreement, China's suspension of beef imports from Brazilian meatpacking plants, Argentina's soybean export tax cuts, and an EU fertilizer tariff waiver — and what each development means for U.S. cattle and feed markets heading into summer.

    11 min

  4. May 22

    Cattle Market Guys - Week Wrap Up 5-22-2026

    Feeder cattle prices are sliding, futures whipsawed three times in three days, and a screwworm outbreak on the southern border is costing Mexico nearly two billion dollars in livestock losses. For U.S. cattle producers, this week delivered a perfect storm of market volatility, global trade shifts, and escalating biosecurity threats — all hitting at once. In this Friday wrap, Brock and Jim break down the latest feeder steer price data, with five-weight steers softening to $464.41/cwt and model projections pointing toward continued downward pressure in the weeks ahead. They walk through a chaotic week in cattle futures — corn-driven selloffs, technical selling, partial recoveries, and pre-report uncertainty — and make the case that demand strength, not just tight supply, is the real story behind elevated prices. On the global stage, Brock and Jim examine China's dominance as the world's largest beef importer, Brazil's push to expand meatpacking access to Chinese markets, and record-setting U.S. beef variety meat exports. They also dig into the biosecurity situation demanding immediate producer attention: USDA has escalated its sterile fly dispersal response to the advancing New World screwworm threat, the U.S.-Mexico border closure remains in effect, and Jim shares a firsthand account from the 1995 screwworm flare-up that still applies today. As Jim puts it, biosecurity is like a fence — it only works if you maintain it every single day.

    11 min

  5. May 19

    Cattle Market Guys - Tuesday Check In 5-19-2026

    US cattle supplies have just hit a 75-year low — and the futures market is reacting with the kind of volatility that hasn't been seen in decades. At the same time, a landmark US-China trade agreement has committed Beijing to purchasing at least $17 billion in American agricultural products annually through 2028, explicitly reopening beef and poultry trade between the two nations. These two seismic forces — a historic supply squeeze and a major export market reopening simultaneously — are colliding in real time, and producers need to understand what both mean for their bottom line heading into the summer of 2026. In this Tuesday market update for May 19th, 2026, Brock and Jim break down the latest cash and futures numbers across the key feeder weight classes. Five-hundred to five-forty-nine pound steers came in at $464.41 per hundredweight for the week ending May 10th on heavy volume, while the six-hundred to six-forty-nine pound class settled at $418.26 per hundredweight. Both classes showed modest week-over-week softening, and the model forecast projects a gradual step-down over the four-week horizon — particularly in heavier feeders — a trend Brock and Jim flag as one producers need to monitor closely. Front-month futures are trading at a notable discount to cash, reflecting geopolitical uncertainty baked into the forward curve rather than any fundamental shift in supply. CME Group's announcement that it is expanding daily trading limits for live cattle and feeder cattle futures effective June 2026 — citing historically tight supplies — adds another layer of urgency for producers with existing hedges. Brock and Jim dig deep into the China trade story, offering both the bullish case and the historical caution that experienced market watchers know well. While seventy-seven new US beef establishment registrations took effect May 15th and the diplomatic commitment is concrete, thirty-eight US establishments remain suspended, and the logistics of moving meaningful export volume takes months to develop. Jim draws on a telling story from the 1996 China trade talks — when futures rallied hard on promise alone, only to give back gains when implementation lagged — as a warning against overcommitting to a rally before the trucks are actually rolling. US beef exports fell eleven percent in March 2026 due to the Chinese market lockout, and while the reopening has genuine long-term upside, the near-term price action is likely to overshoot in both directions as implementation details emerge. The episode closes with a sharp look at global beef trade dynamics and the competitive pressures US exporters face from South American rivals. Brazilian beef processors reported a twenty-seven percent jump in first-quarter net profit driven by surging export volumes into the same global markets US producers are trying to capture. Brazil's widening male-to-female cattle price differential signals that fed cattle supply is tightening globally — not just domestically — reinforcing the structural nature of the current price environment. On a more encouraging note, US beef variety meat exports hit a record monthly value high in March despite the China lockout, pointing to resilient demand in secondary markets like Japan, South Korea, and Mexico. Brock summarizes the three producer takeaways from the episode: watch the softening trend in heavier feeders, don't chase the China rally blindly, and recognize that quality and traceability — not volume — are the competitive advantages US beef must lean on in an increasingly contested global market.

    17 min

  6. May 15

    Cattle Market Guys - Week Wrap Up 5-15-2026

    Cattle markets delivered one of the most volatile weeks in recent memory — and somehow came out the other side looking stronger than ever. Cash fed cattle prices surged to $265 live and $410 dressed by midweek, even as CME futures whipsawed violently on competing headlines about beef import tariffs out of Washington. The divergence between a cash market driven by razor-thin physical supply and a futures market reacting to every policy rumor tells producers everything they need to know about where the real fundamentals stand right now. In this Friday wrap for the week ending May 15, 2026, Brock and Jim break down a market snapshot showing feeder steer prices holding remarkable resilience despite the noise. The 500–549 pound weight class closed the reporting week at $467.64 per hundredweight on volume exceeding 5,200 head — essentially unchanged from early April levels — while the 600–649 pound class came in at $418.75 on nearly 7,000 head. That roughly $50 per hundredweight spread between the two weight classes is a clear signal from the market: lighter feeder cattle with more days of gain still command a strong premium. Near-term forecast models point to a constructive outlook for both classes, with the lighter 500-weight steers projected to peak near $460.29 per hundredweight at the three-week mark, and the heavier 600-weight class building steadily toward $425.65 at four weeks out. Brock and Jim also unpack the week's futures market drama in detail, walking through the full round trip in sentiment that ran from Monday's sell-off on tariff reduction expectations through Wednesday's recovery to near-record highs. The Trump administration reportedly prepared executive orders to temporarily lower beef import tariffs — framed as a response to retail beef prices running 16% above pre-Trump levels and up 2.7% in April alone — only to delay signing them, with the White House later confirming it is "fine-tuning" rather than abandoning the plan. Jim draws on a parallel from 1998 when similar import-threat headlines rattled the Abilene cattlemen's meeting for months before actual import volumes proved far smaller than feared, offering critical historical perspective on the gap between policy noise and real-world market impact. The episode digs into what Brock calls the foundation of the entire market story: persistently tight US cattle supply and the challenges facing herd rebuilding. Tyson Foods' CFO described producer herd rebuilding efforts as "spotty" this week and projected that beef, pork, and poultry costs will remain elevated through 2027 — a forecast that carries significant weight coming from one of the country's largest processors. The May USDA WASDE report reinforced that view, projecting higher prices for cattle, corn, and wheat amid continued supply tightness. Brock and Jim close with four things producers should be watching closely in the weeks ahead: the details of any tariff executive orders, packer slaughter volume trends, feeder cattle movement data from the USDA marketings report, and — perhaps most importantly — the discipline to keep reactive, headline-driven hedging decisions out of a marketing plan that should be built on breakevens, not breaking news.

    16 min

  7. May 12

    Cattle Market Guys - Tuesday Check In 5-12-2026

    Feeder cattle prices are softening just as Washington threatens to flood the market with Brazilian beef — and the futures market is flashing warning signals that cattle producers cannot afford to ignore. The Trump administration is expected to temporarily reduce beef import tariffs on Brazilian product following a White House meeting between President Trump and Brazilian President Lula — a meeting reportedly arranged by JBS co-owner Joesley Batista, a Brazilian billionaire whose company stands to be among the primary beneficiaries of any tariff reduction. Futures tumbled on that news before partially recovering, adding to an already volatile week that saw prices swing in both directions as traders weighed geopolitical headlines against increasingly uncertain fundamentals. In this Tuesday Market Update for May 12, 2026, Brock and Jim break down the latest cash and futures market numbers, including feeder steer prices across the 500–549 and 600–649 pound weight classes, which have both given back a few dollars from mid-April highs. Near-term model forecasts show a modest dip before a gradual recovery — but Brock is clear that those projections assume the Brazil trade situation doesn't materially escalate. With front-month futures sitting at $371.87 and deferred contracts trading at a significant discount to cash, the pair dig into what it actually means to try to hedge cattle in a market with no carry, and why that combination of record cash prices and discounted futures can be more dangerous than it looks on the surface. Jim draws on a firsthand account from 1994, when strong feeder prices masked a treacherous hedging environment that left unhedged operators badly exposed when markets turned. The history lesson lands with real force given today's conditions: live cattle prices have risen 525 percent since 2022, packer bids are showing no urgency, and feedlot operators trying to forward price cattle are essentially being told by the board to take less than today's cash market is offering. Brock and Jim also examine the role of a single JBS principal in brokering what is ostensibly a diplomatic trade meeting, and what that level of private sector influence means for US cattle producers trying to assess whose interests are shaping federal trade policy. Rounding out the episode, Brock and Jim cover the broader macro picture pressing down on the cattle sector from multiple directions simultaneously. The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization reported that global food prices climbed in April to their highest level in more than three years, driven in part by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the Iran war — a supply chain disruption that is pushing energy costs, fertilizer prices, and transportation costs higher across agriculture. On the demand side, the ongoing H5N1 avian influenza outbreak — with losses now topping 200 million birds since 2022 — has provided structural support for beef demand as consumers shift toward alternative proteins, while a steady April jobs report with unemployment holding at 4.3 percent signals that consumers still have spending capacity. Brock and Jim make the case that producers who understand all of these variables together — not just the cash price — are the ones best positioned to stay solvent through whatever comes next.

    16 min

  8. May 5

    Cattle Market Guys - Tuesday Check In 5-5-2026

    The Department of Justice has formally expanded its antitrust investigation into Tyson, JBS, Cargill, and National Beef over beef pricing practices. This development comes as Tyson Foods reports its beef division is losing up to $500 million despite raising overall profit outlook. Market analysts suggest this investigation could significantly impact cattle prices and producer relationships with packers in the coming months. In this critical Tuesday Market Update, Brock and Jim analyze the latest cattle market data showing a meaningful slide of roughly $16 per hundredweight for 600-649 pound steers over the past two weeks. They examine the substantial premium for lighter cattle, currently running at approximately $48 per hundredweight over heavier cattle, indicating feedlots remain hungry for placement cattle despite market pressures. The hosts dive deep into how packer losses are affecting slaughter volumes and market dynamics, with Brock noting that "packers are taking on larger inventories rather than moving cattle through at a pace that would support prices." Jim shares personal historical perspective from similar market conditions in the late 1990s, providing context for today's challenges. They also address how drought conditions threaten the ongoing herd rebuilding efforts, particularly in the Southern Plains where El Niño patterns are expected to keep regions drier than normal through summer. On a more positive note, the episode covers significant international trade developments, including restored duty-free access for U.S. beef in the United Kingdom. The hosts discuss how the U.S. Meat Export Federation's promotional events in London could help create demand at the export level, potentially supporting domestic prices. Brock and Jim conclude with practical market forecasts for May, offering guidance for producers navigating these complex market conditions.

    15 min
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About

Brock and Jim break down the week’s cattle market news, trends, and forecasts with a mix of data-driven insight and 40 years of ranching wisdom. Published three times a week by Herd Advisor, each episode blends hard numbers and real-world experience to help cow-calf producers make smarter, more profitable marketing decisions.

Information

  • Creator
    Cattle Market Guys by Herd Advisor
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    22
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © 2026 The Cattle Market Guys Podcast

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