The Cattle Market Guys Podcast

Cattle Market Guys by Herd Advisor
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Brock and Jim break down the week’s cattle market news, trends, and forecasts with a mix of data-driven insight and 40 years of ranching wisdom. Published three times a week by Herd Advisor, each episode blends hard numbers and real-world experience to help cow-calf producers make smarter, more profitable marketing decisions.

  1. 1d ago

    Cattle Market Guys - Tuesday Check In 6-23-2026

    New World screwworm has reached 15 confirmed cases in the United States, with three new Texas animals testing positive in the latest reporting period — and a critical sterile fly facility won't come online until late 2027. For cattle producers across the southern half of the country, the window for early detection is now, and Brock and Jim break down exactly what to watch for and who to call. In this Tuesday Market Update, Brock and Jim cover the full feeder cattle price picture, with 500–549 lb. steers holding near $449/cwt. despite a gradual month-long softening, and a notable basis gap between cash prices and front-month futures that producers need to pencil out carefully before making placement commitments. Four-week model forecasts suggest further price softening in weeks three and four — a signal worth stress-testing against current breakevens. The episode also breaks down emerging global feed supply risks, including a potential super El Niño threatening grain output, USDA's addition of 30 million base acres to ARC and PLC programs, and the longer-term concern of prime farmland converting to data centers and solar farms. Brock and Jim close with the June 19 USDA cattle-on-feed report showing inventory up 2% year-over-year, improving drought conditions across the Lower 48, and a seasoned reminder from Jim that when everyone feeds cattle and drought breaks at once, the market has a way of solving one problem by creating another.

    12 min

  2. 5d ago

    Cattle Market Guys - Week Wrap Up 6-19-2026

    Twelve confirmed screwworm cases on U.S. soil, $105 million in federal response funding, and a July 1st USMCA deadline that farm groups are calling potentially catastrophic — the cattle industry is navigating a minefield of compounding risks. This week on Cattle Market Guys, Brock and Jim break down everything producers in the southern tier and beyond need to know before it's too late to act. On the markets, six-weight steers have softened from $424 to $405 per hundredweight over the past month, and the four-week forecast shows further near-term pressure before a partial recovery — while lighter five-weight calves continue to hold a firm premium. Brock and Jim explain why this week's futures volatility was largely a trader story rather than a cash fundamentals story, and why commercial operators shouldn't read too much into the noise. The episode also digs into the screwworm threat with historical context from Jim's own ranching background, covering what early detection and rapid reporting actually look like on the ground. On trade, U.S. beef exports to China fell 11% in April, and USMCA faces a renewal deadline with genuine uncertainty after President Trump signaled a preference against a new agreement. With Mexico's feeder cattle pipeline already disrupted by screwworm border closures, Brock and Jim examine what a deal collapse could mean for stocker and backgrounding operations that depend on cross-border supply.

    11 min

  3. Jun 16

    Cattle Market Guys - Tuesday Check In 6-16-2026

    JBS USA just shuttered two major beef processing facilities — and the ripple effects are already hitting cattle futures and producer margins hard. When a packing plant goes dark, the hurt doesn't stop at the front gate. It rolls all the way back to the pasture. In this Tuesday Market Update, Brock and Jim break down a volatile week in cattle markets, starting with a meaningful price slide since mid-May. Feeder steers in the 500–549 lb range have dropped roughly $14 per hundredweight from their mid-May peaks, while the heavier 600–649 lb class has fallen nearly $19 — a significant pullback in a short window. The guys walk through near-term price projections across both weight classes and explain what the unusually wide basis between cash and futures is signaling about current market structure. From there, Brock and Jim dig into the JBS plant closures in Souderton, Pennsylvania and Memphis, Tennessee — what they mean for regional producers, how processing concentration amplifies the damage, and why Jim's experience from a similar 1997 closure is the right frame for thinking about it today. They also cover USDA's newly announced $60 million Small Processors Action Plan and what it realistically can — and can't — accomplish. The episode closes with a look at the week's futures action, including three consecutive sessions of gains that were erased by a single headline, and what the June WASDE report means for producers making near-term marketing decisions.

    11 min

  4. Jun 12

    Cattle Market Guys - Week Wrap Up 6-12-2026

    Screwworm has moved from threat to confirmed reality — with cases now verified in both Texas and New Mexico, Mexico has suspended live animal imports from the United States. This week's episode of Cattle Market Guys breaks down what that means for producers and the broader cattle trade. Brock and Jim open with the market snapshot for the week of June 12, 2026, walking through feeder steer prices across weight classes, flagging the thin volume that makes this week's prints unreliable benchmarks, and sharing model forecasts that point to modest price softening in the near term. The cash-to-futures relationship gets its own spotlight, with CME live cattle futures running at a notable discount to cash markets — a dynamic that's been providing upward price support and signaling that traders see staying power in current cash strength. The June WASDE report projects steady prices for both cattle and corn, offering some stability amid broader uncertainty. The episode also examines the global trade pressures stacking up around the industry: Russian strikes on Ukraine's Black Sea port infrastructure are threatening grain export flows with downstream implications for US feed costs, while US beef exports continue to lag year-over-year with China's absence as a buyer cited as a key driver. Jim draws on firsthand experience from the 1988 drought and trade disruptions to put the current moment in historical perspective — and to caution against reactive decisions when multiple headwinds hit at once.

    11 min

  5. Jun 9

    Cattle Market Guys - Tuesday Check In 6-9-2026

    New World Screwworm has been confirmed in multiple Texas counties, and it's moving fast — at least four cases across Zavala and La Salle counties in a matter of days, triggering a livestock quarantine, a disaster declaration, and immediate ripple effects across both the cash and futures markets. This is the most significant livestock biosecurity threat to hit the U.S. in decades, and ranchers need to understand what it means right now. In this Tuesday Market Update for June 9, 2026, Brock and Jim break down the week's cattle market numbers, including strong early-week prices in the 500–549 lb. steer class at $475.80/cwt and a notable gap opening up between cash and futures markets. They walk through model forecasts for the next one to four weeks and explain why the heavier weight classes are flashing a timing signal for producers with flexibility. The episode digs deep into the screwworm outbreak — how it entered the U.S., how quickly it's spreading geographically, and why Jim's firsthand experience checking cattle in Presidio County in 1976 still carries hard lessons for ranchers in affected areas today. Brock and Jim also cover the trade disruptions flowing from the outbreak, including border restrictions with both Mexico and Canada, new tariff uncertainty across 60 countries, and what Brazil's clean FMD status signals about competitive dynamics in global protein markets.

    11 min

  6. Jun 5

    Cattle Market Guys - Week Wrap Up 6-5-2026

    A confirmed New World Screwworm detection in South Texas sent feeder cattle futures tumbling this week — and the market reacted exactly the way markets always do: fear first, facts later. For producers across the Southwest, this isn't an abstract biosecurity concern. It's a direct threat to cattle movement, market confidence, and trade relationships. On this week's episode of Cattle Market Guys, Brock and Jim break down a feeder market that has quietly shed significant ground over the past month, with medium and large frame one steers in the 500–549 pound class dropping roughly $20 per hundredweight over four weeks. Model projections suggest continued softness in the near term, particularly in the six-weight class, before a modest recovery. The screwworm confirmation — and the USDA's initial denial followed by rapid reversal — is identified as a key driver of that market uncertainty. Brock and Jim also cover a genuinely encouraging export story, with Caribbean and Central American beef demand posting record first-quarter values, led by strong performances in the Dominican Republic and Guatemala. On the trade policy front, the episode examines proposed U.S. tariffs targeting Brazil and sixty other economies, and flags a development with long-range implications: China's decision to lift FMD restrictions on all of Brazil, opening a major new channel for one of America's chief competitors in global beef markets.

    12 min

  7. Jun 2

    Cattle Market Guys - Tuesday Check In 6-2-2026

    A screwworm detection just 31 miles from the US border has USDA on high alert — and for a cattle herd already at historically tight supply levels, the timing couldn't be worse. If this parasite crosses into the United States, the damage to an already fragile rebuilding cycle could be severe. In this Tuesday market update, Brock and Jim break down a meaningful two-week price pullback in feeder steers, with five-weight cattle dropping roughly $18 and six-weights falling approximately $20 from early May levels. Forward projections point to additional softness in the two-week window — particularly a sharp dip on six-weight steers to $378.44 per hundredweight — before prices begin to recover heading into the four-week mark. Beyond the weekly numbers, Brock and Jim examine where the US cattle herd stands in the broader cattle cycle. The herd is entering early-stage expansion, but historical patterns show that slaughter volumes and beef production typically decline before they recover — a counterintuitive dynamic that caught many producers off guard in past cycles. Drought conditions across the Lower 48 are complicating the rebuild, with pasture coverage moving in the wrong direction. On the demand side, CME futures sold off sharply on consumer spending concerns and fuel prices before rebounding on technical buying — a pattern that reflects genuine uncertainty about beef affordability as pork and other proteins compete for wallet share at the meat case.

    11 min

  8. May 29

    Cattle Market Guys - Week Wrap Up 5-29-2026

    Cattle futures whipped in three different directions in a single week — and the forces driving that volatility have serious implications for producers with cattle to move this summer. With higher-than-expected feedlot placements, elevated fuel prices hammering consumer purchasing power, and pork cutout values quietly climbing, the beef demand picture is flashing yellow. In this Friday wrap for the week of May 29th, 2026, Brock and Jim break down a turbulent week across cattle markets. The data shows feeder steer prices softening from May highs, with model forecasts pointing to a meaningful step-down over the next four weeks — the lighter 500-549 pound class is projected to drop from $443 at one week out to $408 at four weeks, a gap that represents real money on any size pen. Brock and Jim dig into what's driving that trajectory: bearish placement numbers, fuel-driven consumer anxiety, and early signs of protein substitution toward chicken and pork. The episode also covers major corporate news in meat processing, including Tyson Foods replacing its CEO amid underperformance in its beef segment, while Hormel beats estimates on the strength of poultry demand. Brock and Jim discuss what a leadership shake-up at the country's largest beef packer could mean for procurement and cash price relationships. The bottom line this week: producers with cattle to market in the next four to six weeks are advised not to wait for a better number that may not come.

    11 min
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About

Brock and Jim break down the week’s cattle market news, trends, and forecasts with a mix of data-driven insight and 40 years of ranching wisdom. Published three times a week by Herd Advisor, each episode blends hard numbers and real-world experience to help cow-calf producers make smarter, more profitable marketing decisions.

Information

  • Creator
    Cattle Market Guys by Herd Advisor
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    23
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © 2026 The Cattle Market Guys Podcast

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