Sabrina Fernandes, author and well-known Brazilian political commentator, talks about this fall's pivotal elections, which pits incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — Lula — of the social democratic Workers Party against Trump-backed candidate Flávio Bolsonaro and his Liberals. What's at stake for Canada is that while we seek more trade partners to reduce dependance on US trade, a Trump-aligned president will reduce Brazil's current search for increased trade diversification for the same reasons. Brazil has the world's the tenth largest economy by GDP. In the past year, pro-Trump politicians have won presidential elections in Peru, Bolivia, Colombia and Chile. Brazil and Mexico remain the most important hold-outs. Like Canada, Brazil has significant natural resources including oil, forests, farming and minerals. It has a big manufacturing sector, anchored by auto assembly plants and steel mills. But while about 75 of Canadian exports go to the U.S., the United States is the market for only about 10 percent of Brazilian exports. But there will still be economic pain from the 25 per cent tariff on many exports imposed by Trump last week. The Trump administration claims Brazil's Pix payment system prevents market access for companies like Visa or PayPal. It says Brazilian court orders unfairly restrict U.S. media platforms X and Meta. Bolsonaro says his alignment with Trump will allow him to remove the tariffs, if elected. Brazil's largest export market is China, which purchases substantial amounts of food and oil. Trump's National Security Strategy overtly states the resources of The American exist to power US wealth, not it's competitor, China. And while even the election of Bolsonaro likely will not change sales of food and oil to China, he would pursue a different path than Lula on mineral resources, which the U.S. president wants to control. Like Canada, Brazil has significant critical mineral reserves and Lula has promoted a value-adding approach to mineral extraction to develop a domestic industry and maintain sovereign control. But Bolsonaro is agreeable to exporting unfinished products at low royalty costs, a position supported by foreign mining companies and Trump. A Bolsonaro presidency would also take a different path on the new international alliance created by Trump this spring, The Shield of The Americas. The new organization's stated purpose is to co-ordinate work against drug trafficking. But it's militarized approach raises concern it is a trojan horse for greater Trump influence within national police and military forces and even military intervention. While several governments in The Americas have joined, Brazil, Mexico and Colombia have not. Colombia may join after it's new pro-Trump president-elect takes office in August. And likely Brazil will join if Bolsonaro wins in October. Lula's Workers Party (PT) was created in the early 1980s in the context of military dictatorship and as a coalition of unions, church groups and rural peasants. PT candidates have won five of the past six presidential elections. But the PT has been unable to convert presidential wins into a majority in the federal chamber of deputies or senate. The right has used it's legislative majority to impose spending caps on the government, reducing the president's fiscal power and limiting federal transfer payments to state governments to support health care, education and infrastructure. Whatever the outcome, October's elections are significant for global politics. They will either result in a president happy to serve Donald Trump or one trying to limit the U.S. president's global power. They will either elect a legislature that supports or seeks to limit presidential powers. In our view, a Brazilian president with the legislative backing to limit Trump's power over Brazil is in the interests of Canadians, if only because adding to Trump's global power certainly is not. Support the show
