The Big 3

Coalition for a Prosperous America
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The Big 3 with CPA economists Mihir Torsekar and Andrew Rechenberg breaks down the three biggest stories shaping U.S. trade, industrial policy, and the American economy each week.  From tariffs, China, and supply chains to inflation, manufacturing, and economic security, Mihir and Andrew cut through the noise with sharp analysis to explain what’s really happening—and who it benefits. Focused on what matters for American workers and producers, The Big 3 connects the headlines to the deeper forces reshaping the U.S. economy—and what that means for the future of U.S. competitiveness.

  1. Sep 11

    Why the Canada Aluminum Deal Needed to Collapse

    A few weeks ago, Washington was on the verge of a trade deal with Canada that would have cut tariffs on Canadian aluminum from 50% to 25% — including the fabricated aluminum products that compete directly with American manufacturers. That deal collapsed. Now, the administration has moved in the opposite direction. On this week’s episode of The Big 3, CPA economists Andrew Rechenberg and Mihir Torsekar break down why the proposed Canada deal threatened American aluminum fabricators, where the jobs and economic value actually reside in the U.S. aluminum industry, and why the administration’s new 100% tariff on certain Canadian downstream aluminum products represents an important change in direction. They also explain why tariffs alone cannot rebuild American primary aluminum production. With electricity accounting for roughly 40% of smelting costs, a durable strategy requires both a tariff structure that protects downstream manufacturers and competitive power contracts capable of bringing American smelters back online. CHAPTERS: 00:00 — Why the Canada Aluminum Deal Needed to Collapse 01:17 — The Big 3 03:04 — The Math Behind the Failed Canada Deal 05:56 — 22¢ of Relief vs. 66¢ of Protection 08:56 — Where the Aluminum Jobs Really Are 11:06 — Why U.S. Aluminum Costs More 13:43 — Why Tariffs Alone Won’t Rebuild Smelters 17:21 — Protecting the Entire Aluminum Supply Chain 18:00 — Section 338 Explained 20:50 — Why the 100% Tariff Gets the Structure Right 23:38 — What a Durable Aluminum Policy Looks Like 25:16 — The Bottom Line

  2. Aug 21

    Securing America's Polysilicon Supply Chain

    For more than a decade, U.S. solar trade policy has focused on individual products and country-by-country enforcement. This week’s episode examines why the Trump administration’s new Section 232 action on polysilicon represents a fundamentally different approach. Guest Tom Beline of Cassidy Levy Kent explains how the new framework combines national security tariffs with minimum import prices across the entire solar supply chain—from raw polysilicon to finished modules. Unlike previous trade actions, the policy is designed to provide investment certainty for manufacturers while preventing China from using below-market pricing to undercut domestic production. The discussion explores how China built overwhelming dominance in polysilicon through industrial planning, state subsidies, forced technology transfer, and coordinated efforts to capture global market share. Rather than relying on comparative advantage, China’s strategy deliberately targeted every stage of the supply chain while using trade barriers to hollow out competing industries abroad. The conversation also examines why earlier U.S. trade remedies frequently fell short. Anti-dumping cases, safeguard measures, and country-specific tariffs often created loopholes that production simply routed around through third countries. According to Beline, the lesson is simple: every loophole eventually becomes a business model. Looking ahead, the panel discusses what success should look like. Key indicators include stable market pricing, new investment in domestic wafer production, stronger enforcement, and expansion of manufacturing across related industries such as aluminum, steel, batteries, and energy infrastructure. Ultimately, rebuilding manufacturing is about more than trade policy. It’s about restoring the ability to make critical technologies in America, strengthening national security, creating better-paying jobs, and ensuring the next generation of advanced manufacturing is built on a resilient domestic industrial base rather than dependence on China.

  3. Jul 31

    The Biotech Race — How China is Winning & What Congress Must Do Now

    This week on The Big 3, Mihir Torsekar is joined by Caitlin Frazer, Executive Director of the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology, to discuss one of the most important—and least understood—strategic competitions facing the United States. The conversation begins by explaining why biotechnology is no longer just a healthcare issue. While most Americans associate biotech with new medicines and cancer treatments, biotechnology is rapidly becoming a foundational technology with applications across agriculture, defense, critical minerals, advanced materials, energy production, and manufacturing. As Frazer explains, roughly 60% of today’s supply chain inputs could eventually be produced using biology, making leadership in biotechnology a matter of economic and national security. The discussion then turns to China’s deliberate strategy to dominate the sector. For years, China specialized in manufacturing pharmaceuticals developed elsewhere. Today, however, Chinese firms are increasingly leading in early-stage drug discovery itself. American pharmaceutical companies are now signing tens of billions of dollars in licensing agreements with Chinese biotech firms, effectively paying for intellectual property that was developed overseas. Those investments risk accelerating China’s innovation ecosystem while weakening America’s own. Frazer also explains that China’s advantage is not based solely on intellectual property theft. Beijing has spent decades reforming regulations, investing in research infrastructure, cultivating scientific talent, and directing government-backed capital into biotechnology. The result is a rapidly growing innovation engine that increasingly competes head-to-head with American firms. The interview explores the national security implications of this shift, including China’s military-civil fusion strategy, dependence on Chinese pharmaceutical supply chains, biological data security, and the possibility that future medical breakthroughs could become geopolitical leverage. Finally, the conversation highlights areas where Congress has already begun responding. The National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology issued 49 recommendations in 2025, with roughly three-quarters now advancing through legislation or executive action. Frazer argues that while America still retains critical advantages, the window for maintaining leadership is narrowing. She points to the National Biotechnology Initiative Act and stronger biological data protections as among the most important next steps. The central message is clear: America still has time to preserve its leadership in biotechnology—but waiting much longer could make rebuilding that advantage far more difficult and expensive. CHAPTERS: 00:00 – Introduction 04:41 – Why Biotech Has Become a National Security Race—and How China Is Closing the Gap 13:23 – Why American Drug Companies Are Funding Chinese Innovation—and What It Means for U.S. Leadership 22:51 – How Congress Can Still Preserve America’s Biotech Advantage—Before the Window Closes 39:10 – Closing Remarks

  4. Jul 24

    The Big 3: How Apple Built China's Manufacturing Empire

    Apple’s decision to move manufacturing to China transformed not only the company, but the global economy. This week’s episode of The Big 3 with CPA senior economist Mihir Torsekar features bestselling author Patrick McGee, whose book Apple in China documents how Apple’s search for manufacturing efficiency helped create one of the world’s most sophisticated industrial ecosystems. Beginning in the late 1990s, Apple outsourced production, eventually concentrating nearly its entire manufacturing base in China. But Apple didn’t simply purchase labor—it invested enormous resources training suppliers, improving manufacturing processes, and building technical expertise throughout China’s industrial base. McGee argues that this transfer of knowledge became one of the most consequential business decisions in modern history. Apple taught suppliers advanced production techniques, developed engineering talent, and helped establish manufacturing capabilities that would later support Chinese champions across numerous industries—not just consumer electronics. The conversation then turns to the geopolitical consequences. Under Xi Jinping, China’s relationship with Apple fundamentally changed. What began as a mutually beneficial manufacturing partnership gradually evolved into strategic dependence. Apple found itself deeply embedded in an industrial ecosystem that China increasingly viewed as a national asset, limiting the company’s flexibility while expanding Beijing’s leverage. Mihir and Patrick also discuss how China’s industrial strategy differed from traditional Western assumptions about globalization. Rather than viewing manufacturing as a low-value activity to outsource, China treated production capacity as a strategic national capability worthy of long-term investment. That approach ultimately allowed Chinese firms to develop expertise that extended far beyond smartphones into electric vehicles, batteries, robotics, and advanced manufacturing. The discussion concludes by examining Apple’s recent lawsuit against OpenAI. McGee argues the legal battle reflects a broader recognition that engineering talent, manufacturing expertise, and proprietary industrial knowledge have become strategic assets. The same questions raised by Apple’s experience in China—who controls production, where innovation occurs, and how industrial capabilities are developed—are now emerging in the AI era. Throughout the conversation, McGee emphasizes that understanding China’s rise requires looking beyond simple explanations involving low wages or subsidies. China’s success also reflects decades of deliberate investment in manufacturing capability, workforce development, and industrial ecosystems. For policymakers seeking to rebuild American manufacturing, those lessons deserve careful study. CHAPTERS: 00:00 — Introduction 02:03 — How Apple Moved Manufacturing to China 14:41 — When China Began Controlling the Relationship 25:16 — Made in China 2025 & Industrial Policy 42:16 — Apple’s Lawsuit Against OpenAI 55:44 — Lessons for America’s Industrial Future 58:30 — Final Thoughts & Book Recommendation Get Your Copy of Apple in China Here!

  5. Jul 10

    The Beef Crisis: Why Imports Aren't Lowering Prices

    Americans are paying more for beef than ever before, but the reasons extend far beyond temporary inflation or seasonal shortages. According to Bill Bullard, CEO of R-CALF USA, today’s record prices are the culmination of more than forty years of policy decisions that steadily weakened America’s cattle industry. This week on The Big 3 with senior economists Mihir Torsekar and Andrew Rechenberg, the discussion begins with the historic decline in the U.S. cattle herd, now the smallest in roughly seventy-five years. Bullard argues this contraction did not happen overnight. Instead, decades of consolidation among meatpackers, declining competition, and steadily increasing imports have hollowed out the domestic cattle industry. The result is fewer ranchers, fewer feedlots, fewer processing plants, and ultimately fewer cattle available to meet growing consumer demand. The team also challenge the common assumption that high grocery prices mean ranchers are enjoying record profits. Ranching remains an asset-intensive business with significant land, feed, fuel, and labor costs. Because cattle require nearly three years from breeding to market, producers cannot quickly respond to changing prices. Many ranchers still operate on narrow margins despite higher cattle prices, while retailers have captured a growing share of profits throughout the supply chain. Another major theme is the misconception that imports solve food inflation. Despite beef imports increasing dramatically over recent years, retail beef prices have continued climbing. Bullard argues imports simply displace domestic production without creating new American ranchers, new cattle, or new processing capacity. Instead, he contends that long-term affordability depends on rebuilding the domestic herd and giving producers confidence that future investments will not be undercut by policy changes or import surges. The conversation also explores broader structural issues affecting the industry, including concentrated meatpacking, country-of-origin labeling, enforcement of antitrust laws, and tariff-rate quotas. Bullard argues that restoring competition throughout the supply chain is essential if producers are to expand herds and consumers are to benefit from more stable prices. Finally, the discussion turns to Brazil and the ongoing Section 301 investigation into illegal deforestation. Bullard explains why R-CALF believes Brazilian beef should not receive an exemption from potential tariffs, arguing that beef exports are directly connected to the deforestation practices under investigation. Exempting beef, he says, would undermine both environmental objectives and American cattle producers. The episode concludes with a broader message: rebuilding America’s cattle industry is not simply about lowering grocery bills. It is about restoring rural communities, strengthening national food security, and ensuring that future generations of independent ranchers have the confidence to invest in expanding domestic production. CHAPTERS: 00:00 - Why Beef Prices Are So High 00:41 - America's Beef Crisis Explained 01:51 - Bill Bullard Joins The Big Three 02:40 - Why the U.S. Cattle Herd Is Shrinking 13:21 - Why Ranchers Still Struggle 21:26 - Rebuilding America's Beef Industry 24:31 - Brazilian Beef & Section 301 Tariffs 29:30 - The Path to Affordable Beef

  6. Jun 26

    China’s Massive Port Network – Why the U.S. Should Be Concerned

    China’s growing influence in Latin America extends well beyond trade. According to CSIS Associate Fellow Henry Ziemer, Beijing has spent years building an interconnected maritime network that includes ports, shipping companies, cranes, cargo scanners, logistics software, rail corridors, and supporting infrastructure throughout the Western Hemisphere. Rather than viewing these investments individually, Ziemer argues they should be understood as parts of a coordinated system that provides China with increasing economic leverage and strategic advantages. The discussion examines Peru’s Chancay megaport, China’s expanding role in Panama, the growing use of Chinese-built port equipment and digital systems, and how these investments could affect U.S. supply chains during future geopolitical crises. The conversation also explores China’s competitive advantages in infrastructure development, America’s declining shipbuilding capacity, and why rebuilding domestic industrial capability may be essential if the United States hopes to offer countries throughout the Americas a credible alternative to Chinese investment. CHAPTERS: 00:00 – China’s Growing Maritime Network 01:45 – Meet Henry Ziemer (CSIS) 05:30 – Why Ports Work as a Network 10:40 – COSCO and the Chancay Megaport 16:40 – Cranes, Scanners & Digital Infrastructure 22:10 – China’s Infrastructure Leverage 26:40 – Panama, BlackRock & the Port Battle 32:30 – Why Latin America Keeps Choosing China 35:15 – Can America Rebuild Shipbuilding? 38:20 – Final Takeaways: Why Ports Matter

  7. Jun 12

    China's Metal Empire and the Fight for Industrial Power

    This week on The Big 3, CPA economists Mihir Torsekar and Andrew Rechenberg sit down with Ben Carlson of SAFE’s Center for Strategic Industrial Materials to examine China’s growing dominance in steel, aluminum, and copper—and what it means for America’s industrial future. The conversation centers on SAFE’s new report, "Strategic Surpluses: China’s Economic Warfare on Major Metals," which argues that China’s vast production capacity is not simply the result of market forces or planning mistakes. Instead, Carlson explains how Beijing has deliberately cultivated strategic surpluses across key industrial sectors, creating manufacturing capacity that can support economic objectives in peacetime and national security objectives during periods of conflict. The discussion explores the staggering scale of China’s metal production, the role of state support and industrial subsidies, and the consequences for American manufacturers. Carlson also explains why tariffs, while important, are often insufficient on their own. Through transshipment, tariff inversion, and complex global supply chains, subsidized Chinese inputs can still find their way into the U.S. market through finished products. Finally, the episode turns to solutions. What would a successful American industrial strategy actually look like? The answer goes beyond tariffs to include energy policy, infrastructure investment, permitting reform, recycling, and stronger rules of origin that align domestic demand with domestic production. For anyone interested in trade, manufacturing, national security, or industrial policy, this is an essential conversation about one of the defining economic challenges of our time. Learn more about SAFE: https://secureenergy.org/ Read the report: https://secureenergy.org/strategic-surpluses-chinas-economic-warfare-on-major-metals/ CHAPTERS:  00:00 - 01:41 | Introduction & Opening Monologue 01:42 - 02:57 | Meet Ben Carlson of SAFE 02:58 - 08:08 | China’s Strategic Metal Surplus 08:09 - 11:19 | How China’s Industrial Policy Differs from the West 11:20 - 15:55 | China’s Anti-Overcapacity Campaign 15:56 - 18:45 | Why Tariffs Haven’t Been Enough 18:46 - 23:23 | Transshipment & Tariff Inversion 23:24 - 25:56 | The Transformer Supply Chain Case Study 25:57 - 28:01 | Beyond Tariffs: What Comes Next? 28:02 - 33:01 | Energy Policy, Aluminum & Manufacturing 33:02 - 37:02 | Can America Compete Without Copying China? 37:03 - 40:05 | Production Capacity vs. Trade Deficits

  8. May 15

    The Chinese "Electrostate" Behind EVs, Batteries, and Solar

    This week’s episode of The Big 3 features special guest Rogan Quinn of Rhodium Group, author of Minerals, Metals and Megawatts: How China’s Power Generation Drives Its Industrial Metals Ecosystem. Quinn joins CPA economists Mihir Torsekar and Andrew Rechenberg to explain how China became what he calls an “electrostate” — an industrial power whose dominance in electricity generation, metals processing, and manufacturing mutually reinforce one another.   The conversation breaks down how China’s cheap thermal power, hydroelectric capacity, state-backed credit, and local-government growth incentives helped build the world’s most powerful metals and electrification supply chain. Rather than simply controlling minerals in the ground, China dominates what happens after extraction: refining, smelting, separation, processing, and downstream manufacturing for batteries, EVs, solar panels, electronics, and other electric-current-driven industries. Quinn also highlights the demand side of China’s system, especially batteries, where falling costs have opened new use cases across vehicles, storage, and heavy-duty trucking. But the system contains major vulnerabilities, including weak cash flows, overcapacity, global demand dependence, and exposure to recession. The episode closes with lessons from Japan and South Korea, and Quinn’s central takeaway: any country hoping to compete with China’s industrial ecosystem must solve the problem of abundant, cheap power. Read Rhodium Group's report here: https://rhg.com/research/minerals-metals-and-megawatts-how-chinas-power-generation-drives-its-industrial-metals-ecosystem/ CHAPTERS: 00:00 - Introduction 03:15 - China's Electrostate, Cheap Power, & the Metals Machine Behind EV Dominance 10:16 - Battery Demand, Industrial Scale, & the Engine Driving China's Supply Chains 19:06 - Rare Earth Leverage, Global Risks, & the Fight to Compete with China

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The Big 3 with CPA economists Mihir Torsekar and Andrew Rechenberg breaks down the three biggest stories shaping U.S. trade, industrial policy, and the American economy each week.  From tariffs, China, and supply chains to inflation, manufacturing, and economic security, Mihir and Andrew cut through the noise with sharp analysis to explain what’s really happening—and who it benefits. Focused on what matters for American workers and producers, The Big 3 connects the headlines to the deeper forces reshaping the U.S. economy—and what that means for the future of U.S. competitiveness.

Information

  • Creator
    Coalition for a Prosperous America
  • Years Active
    2026
  • Episodes
    14
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 The Big 3
  • Show Website
    The Big 3

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