The American Conservative Morning Briefing

The American Conservative
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A short morning synopsis of TAC's coverage

  1. 5h ago

    August 05, 2026

    Good morning! Today is Wednesday, August 5th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Luke Nicastro dissects the Ceuta migrant crisis, arguing that Washington's silence on Morocco's apparent weaponization of migration—paired with Trump's flattering message to the Moroccan king—reveals a troubling embrace of accelerationism aimed at punishing Pedro Sánchez. Ted Snider surveys the fifth month of the Iran War, warning that U.S. intelligence sees diminishing returns from further strikes even as munition stockpiles dwindle and the conflict spreads from Jordan to the Red Sea to the Caspian. Snider urges President Trump to resist Zelensky's efforts to widen the war and to seize a narrowing window for negotiations with Tehran. and now for the details. We begin in North Africa, where the Spanish exclave of Ceuta was overwhelmed at the end of July by a surge of more than seventy thousand migrants crossing from Morocco. Ceuta, along with its sister city Melilla, is one of the last remnants of a six-hundred-year-old Iberian presence in North Africa. The crossings burst forth suddenly, apparently coordinated by disappearing social media accounts, and multiple migrants told the New York Times that Moroccan police had actively directed and encouraged them to cross into Spanish territory. Writing at The American Conservative, Luke Nicastro examines the geopolitical puzzle behind the affair. Morocco has a history of using migration as a policy tool, and Rabat has longstanding claims on Spain's remaining North African holdings. But Nicastro draws attention to the response from Washington. The Trump administration has close ties with the Moroccan government—the president recognized Morocco's claim to Western Sahara in his first term, and Rabat recently named a highway in his honor. House Republicans recently passed a bill sending Morocco forty million dollars in aid, with an accompanying committee report suggesting Morocco's claims to Ceuta and Melilla deserve a hearing. Nicastro notes that despite the Trump administration's signature promises to halt illegal migration, there has been no official U.S. condemnation of Morocco's role. Two days into the crisis, President Trump sent a flattering Throne Day message to the Moroccan king, praising his "wise leadership." Nicastro argues that Washington's interest appears to be in using the crisis as a cudgel against Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who has opposed the Iran War, resisted NATO spending targets, and criticized Israel. But the effort may be backfiring: after initial isolation, the EU is now rallying around Madrid, with Belgium's leader warning that migration is being used as a geopolitical weapon. Nicastro concludes that tacit American support for what he calls accelerationism—heightening contradictions to punish a political opponent—is beneath a serious nation. Turning to the Middle East, the American war with Iran now stretches past its fifth month, and a recent assessment by the U.S. intelligence community reportedly concludes that Tehran has demonstrated staying power despite one of the most intensive bombing campaigns in modern history. According to reporting in the Washington Post, our own spy agencies believe further strikes are unlikely to soften Iran's negotiating position. The New York Times reports that few in President Trump's inner circle believe further escalation is wise, with one senior official noting that the strikes are keeping Iran cohesive and helping its leaders focus attention on an external threat. Writing at The American Conservative, Ted Snider argues the war has been a strategic disaster. Before the fighting, Iran had reportedly been willing to submit to rigorous inspections, dilute its high-enriched uranium, and cap enrichment at civilian levels. The Strait of Hormuz, now effectively closed, was open. American munition stockpiles have been badly depleted—Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine has reportedly warned the president that further major operations would dangerously drain interceptor supplies needed to defend U.S. bases and allied populations. Snider details how the war zone has widened. U.S. bases in Jordan face regular Iranian strikes. American and Saudi jets have hit Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. A drone recently struck a U.S.-owned gas tanker off Egypt. The Houthis have reopened conflict with Saudi Arabia and closed the Bab al-Mandeb Strait to Saudi shipping. And in late July, Ukraine struck an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea, in what Snider describes as a reckless attempt by President Zelensky to draw the United States more deeply into his own war. Snider urges the president to apply to Iran the same realism he showed in resisting Zelensky's overtures, and to seize what appears to be a narrow window for peace negotiations. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

  2. 1d ago

    August 04, 2026

    Good morning! Today is Tuesday, August 4th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Jude Russo argues that Washington's cycle of extravagant threats and equally extravagant walkbacks—most recently over Iran—is corroding American diplomatic credibility and pushing the country toward the costly lever of force. Iran has flatly denied President Trump's claim that negotiations would begin Monday, even as oil markets briefly swung on the news and CENTCOM reportedly asked analysts for "creative and unconventional" ways to pressure Tehran. Fraser Myers examines why Labour's pro-EU wing is quietly eyeing a return to Brussels—not because voters want it, but because rejoining could lock in open borders, Net Zero, and other policies beyond the reach of British democracy. and now for the details. We begin this morning with a hard look at American credibility on the world stage. Last week saw a familiar cycle out of Washington: rumblings of a massive escalation against Iran, reports that CENTCOM's Admiral Brad Cooper had drawn up a "go-big" option to strike Iranian military assets, and speculation about hitting so-called "Pickaxe Mountain" near the Natanz nuclear site. On Friday, President Trump himself said the U.S. would "be hitting them very hard," and officials leaked to the Wall Street Journal that an attack was imminent. Then, by Sunday, the attack was off — Trump citing interventions from Gulf allies wary of Iranian retaliation against their oil and desalination infrastructure. The president claimed negotiations with Iran would begin Monday. The Iranians promptly denied it. As Jude Russo writes at The American Conservative, this pattern of extravagant threats followed by equally extravagant walkbacks is becoming its own kind of problem. Russo argues that America's diplomatic credibility is eroding — through revised premises, toggled mediation channels, and the use of negotiations as cover for surprise attacks. He points to Trump's post-signing effort to retroactively condition a Saudi civilian nuclear deal on normalization with Israel as another example. His warning: as threats and agreements lose their power, Washington will be pushed toward the one lever that remains — physical force, which he calls limited, expensive, and messy. Russo notes that Iranian elites, according to reporting by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj in TAC, are increasingly convinced the United States is structurally incapable of honoring any agreement it signs. Salvaging that credit, Russo suggests, may require follow-through on the concessive parts of the June memorandum — sanctions relief and the like — and, at minimum, an end to apocalyptic but empty threats. Staying with the Iran file: Iranian officials have publicly denied President Trump's claim that talks to end the war would begin Monday. Trump told reporters Sunday evening that negotiations were set to start the following afternoon, and that he had cancelled planned attacks because of the development. But Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said flatly that "at present, we are not having any negotiations with the US." Iran acknowledged separate talks with Oman focused on establishing a new route for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, but Baghaei tied any real change in the Strait to a lifting of the American naval blockade and an end to what he called U.S. military aggression. Harrison Berger reports for TAC that Trump's remarks did move oil markets briefly — Brent crude fell five percent Monday, back below $84 a barrel — though Iran's denial produced no significant follow-on movement. AAA has the national average price of regular gasoline at $4.10, and Trump used Truth Social to publicly pressure Chevron CEO Mike Wirth and other oil companies to bring retail prices down. Berger also notes CNN reporting, citing anonymous sources, that CENTCOM's intelligence branch has asked analysts to develop "creative and unconventional" ways to pressure and punish Iran — even as the administration publicly pivots toward diplomacy. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

  3. 2d ago

    August 03, 2026

    Good morning! Today is Monday, August 3rd 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. On the 156th day of the Iran War, President Trump called off weekend airstrikes and claimed a deal had been reached to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but Tehran flatly denied any agreement and dismissed the announcement as a fresh lie. Esfandyar Batmanghelidj reports from a three-hour debate with a leading Iranian analyst that Tehran's policy establishment has concluded no deal with the Trump administration is achievable, pointing to unfulfilled confidence-building measures, a widening Rubio-Vance rift, and the president's own inconstancy. Jennifer Kavanagh argues that despite Pentagon warnings shaping Trump's hesitation, the United States is not actually running out of missiles to fight Iran—the real munitions crisis is a deeper industrial problem that transcends this war. and now for the details. We begin with the latest developments in the Iran War, now in its 156th day. On Saturday night, President Trump called off anticipated airstrikes on Iran, announcing on Truth Social that Tehran had agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end what he described as its nuclear threat. Trump said the United States and Israel would hold off attacks because, in his words, the perimeters of a deal had been reached. Iran, however, quickly denied any such agreement. Iran's Mehr News agency, citing military officials, called Trump's claim "nothing but a new lie," and the Fars news agency reported no agreement on Hormuz had been made. As Harrison Berger reports, Trump spoke by phone Saturday with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who expressed concern about the president's plans to escalate militarily. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned counterparts in Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan that Iran would act decisively if the U.S. and Israel followed through with massive strikes. Meanwhile, Axios reports Qatari mediators held separate talks with Omani officials, Araghchi, and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff on management of the Strait. The memorandum of understanding signed last month between Trump and the Iranian president broke down largely over disagreements about Hormuz. From Tehran, the mood on diplomacy has darkened considerably. As Esfandyar Batmanghelidj reports, Iranian policy analysts and officials increasingly believe a deal with the Trump administration is simply not achievable. Batmanghelidj recently joined a three-hour debate with Majid Shakeri, a former foreign policy advisor influential in Tehran, who argued Iran must now focus on proactively managing an ongoing American threat rather than pursuing a diplomatic breakthrough. The pessimism, Batmanghelidj writes, rests on hard counting. Iranian analysts point to the administration's failure to execute even basic confidence-building measures from the memorandum of understanding signed earlier this year—no Iranian assets were released, and an oil export waiver was issued, never fully implemented, and then rescinded. They point to a widening rift between the Rubio and Vance camps inside the cabinet, and to a sense that President Trump is too erratic to hold to his own agreements. Even Saudi Arabia, Batmanghelidj notes, could not shield its recent nuclear deal from that inconstancy. His conclusion is striking: rather than press for a comprehensive deal Washington seems unable to deliver, the best path may be for Trump to step back entirely, allowing regional powers—Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates—to advance a neighborhood diplomacy that has, over the past decade, done more than Washington to prevent a full regional war. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

  4. 3d ago

    August 02, 2026

    Good morning! Today is Sunday, August 2nd 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. As the war with Iran hits day one hundred and fifty-five, Washington and Israel prepare a massive strike on Iranian energy infrastructure, even as U.S. commanders warn of depleted interceptors and gas prices climb past four dollars a gallon. Scott Greer argues in The American Conservative that the bipartisan backlash against data centers, Flock cameras, and online platforms may quietly advance left-wing goals, starving red counties of revenue, hobbling immigration enforcement, and threatening the online anonymity that has fueled the right. and now for the details. We begin overseas, where the war with Iran has entered its one hundred and fifty-fifth day, and Washington appears to be on the brink of a major escalation. CBS News reported Friday evening that the United States and Israel are preparing what would be among the harshest bombing campaigns of the conflict so far, targeting Iran's energy infrastructure, with strikes possibly beginning this weekend. Speaking to reporters at Camp David, President Trump said, quote, "We'll be hitting them very hard. At some point they are going to say, 'We just can't take it any more.'" Tehran, for its part, is warning of retaliation. Iran's Tasnim news agency quoted a senior security official saying Iran would target critical Israeli and American facilities across the region, and the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council warned that continued war would prompt Iran to further close the Strait of Hormuz and other trade chokepoints. On Saturday morning, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported an explosion near a tanker off Oman, and Kuwait's army said it had intercepted incoming Iranian drones. As Harrison Berger reports for The American Conservative, the strain on the U.S. military is becoming difficult to disguise. The head of U.S. European Command warned the Pentagon this week that without more naval reinforcements, he will be less able to protect Israel. Earlier Pentagon assessments, reported by the Washington Post, found that the U.S. has depleted much of its inventory of advanced missile-defense interceptors defending Israeli skies. Meanwhile, at home, the cost is showing up at the pump. Brent Crude closed Friday just under 88 dollars a barrel, and AAA on Saturday put the national average price of gasoline at 4 dollars and 10 cents a gallon, following the collapse last month of a framework peace deal between Washington and Tehran. Turning to domestic politics, a growing bipartisan backlash against Big Tech is reshaping debates over data centers, license-plate readers, and online child safety. But in a new essay for The American Conservative, Scott Greer cautions that these popular measures may quietly serve left-wing goals at the right's expense. On data centers, Greer notes that Republicans and Democrats alike are pushing moratoriums, with governors like Florida's Ron DeSantis leaning into the issue. Yet many deep-red counties depend on the revenue those facilities generate, revenue that has allowed some local governments to slash the very property taxes conservatives want to lower. On Flock cameras, the AI-powered license-plate readers used by police departments, Greer observes that some of the loudest opposition comes from conservatives such as Representatives Tim Burchett, Chip Roy, Andrew Clyde, Anna Paulina Luna, and Thomas Massie, who cite constitutional concerns. But he points out that much of the left's hostility centers on the fact that Flock data has helped ICE and Customs and Border Protection locate illegal immigrants. Cities like Santa Cruz, California, have canceled their contracts on those grounds. Banning the technology, Greer argues, would hamper immigration enforcement and criminal investigations without meaningfully rolling back surveillance elsewhere. Then there is the KIDS Act, which passed the House with nearly 270 votes, more of them Republican than Democratic. The bill imposes age verification across much of the internet, mandates new safety features, and restricts AI bot interaction with minors. Greer, whose new book Whitepill documents the role of anonymous accounts in shaping right-wing politics online, warns that age verification could effectively end online anonymity, a tool that has disproportionately benefited conservative speech. He also points to language requiring platforms to suppress content related to alcohol, gambling, and drug use that could reach children, which he argues opens a backdoor for regulators to pressure companies into censoring so-called hate speech as well. The Electronic Frontier Foundation, he notes, warns that platforms facing legal exposure tend to err on the side of deletion. Greer's bottom line: skepticism of Big Tech is warranted, but conservatives should look carefully at who ultimately benefits from each specific policy. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories

  5. 4d ago

    August 01, 2026

    Good morning! Today is Saturday, August 1st 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. The Iran War enters its 154th day with Tehran striking a U.S. air base in Kuwait, claiming hits on Gulf oil tankers, and declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed, as Brent crude climbs to $88.50 and gas hits $4.11 a gallon. Second-quarter U.S. growth slowed to 1.5 percent while inflation runs hot, and the Bank of England warns that a prolonged war and $100 oil could force British rates higher. Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger, once seen as a 2028 Democratic hope, is alienating progressives, Republicans, and her own party at once as she tries to govern from the center in an age of insurgent politics. and now for the details. We begin with the ongoing Iran War, now in its 154th day. Iran struck Kuwait on Friday, in what Tehran called retaliation for a U.S. attack Wednesday evening that reportedly killed two adults and their toddler, and injured two other children. According to Iran's state news agency, IRGC suicide drones struck fighter jet shelters, satellite communication systems, and equipment warehouses at Ahmad Al Jaber Air Base. The Wall Street Journal reports the Pentagon is now rethinking the scope of its footprint in Kuwait. Iran also claimed to have struck two oil tankers Friday morning, and its Persian Gulf Strait Authority declared that transit through the Strait of Hormuz is no longer possible. CENTCOM disputes that, insisting the Strait remains open. But shipping tracker Kpler reported commercial crossings dropped from 22 on Wednesday to just 5 on Thursday, all of them using the Iranian route. As Harrison Berger reports, the Washington Post has documented that during July, U.S. forces hit at least six bridges and tunnels around the port city of Bandar Abbas, along with communications lines, a rail station, and a desalination plant. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has announced a new maritime coalition, joined by Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Sudan, and ten other nations, to confront the Houthis in Yemen. Exxon and Chevron both posted record second-quarter profits driven by the war's energy shocks. Brent crude sits at $88.50 a barrel, and the national average price of gas has reached $4.11 per gallon. The economic ripple effects of that war are showing up at home. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of just 1.5 percent in the second quarter, down from 2.1 percent in the first quarter, and well below the roughly 2 percent growth economists had forecast. Harrison Berger notes that while consumer spending held up, with personal consumption expenditures rising 2.1 percent, inflation continues to run above the Federal Reserve's target. Year-over-year PCE is up 3.7 percent, and core PCE, which strips out food and energy, is up 3.3 percent. Across the Atlantic, the Bank of England held its benchmark rate at 3.75 percent, with Governor Andrew Bailey warning that if the Iran War continues and oil prices remain above $100 a barrel, British rates will likely have to move higher. Turning to politics, Virginia's Democratic governor, Abigail Spanberger, is discovering just how hard it is to govern from the center in a polarized age. Six months into her term, the former CIA operative once viewed by the Democratic establishment as a reliable 2028 contender is watching her party swing toward the insurgent left, exemplified by New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. As Spencer Neale reports, Spanberger has managed to alienate nearly every faction she's tried to bridge. She declined to back a Democratic push to replace Virginia Supreme Court justices after they struck down a mid-decade redistricting measure. She vetoed two immigration-related bills favored by progressives, then issued an executive order limiting state cooperation with ICE, satisfying neither side. She has defended tax exemptions for the data centers now dominating northern Virginia, drawing the nickname "Data Center Diva" from a fellow Democrat, State Senator Louise Lucas. A Virginia Commonwealth University poll found 72 percent of Virginians oppose those exemptions, and rural yard signs read "Grow Tomatoes, Not Data Centers." And on gun rights, Spanberger signed an assault weapons ban after her own attempts to soften its language were rejected by her party. Her approval sits at 44 percent. Neale draws a pointed comparison to former Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, who faced similar cross-pressures and ended up with his own national ambitions in limbo. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

  6. 5d ago

    July 31, 2026

    Good morning! Today is Friday, July 31st 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. A little-noticed provision in the 2027 NDAA, Section 219, would create a Pentagon executive agent to synchronize U.S.-Israel defense cooperation across AI, quantum, biotech, and cyber—prompting Rep. Thomas Massie and a handful of Republicans to break ranks and call it a betrayal of American sovereignty. Harrison Berger reports that while Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz insist the measure merely formalizes existing ties, Prime Minister Netanyahu himself has described it as a shift from aid to partnership, and Democratic leaders Schumer and Jeffries have stayed conspicuously silent. W. James Antle III argues that Anthony Fauci derailed Trump's first term and Lindsey Graham may yet derail his second, as the Iran War grinds into its 153rd day with depleted munitions and Hormuz blockades fueling inflation. and now for the details. We begin this morning with a provision buried in the National Defense Authorization Act that critics say could bind America's military future to a foreign power. Two weeks ago, the House passed its version of the 2027 NDAA. Tucked inside is Section 219, which would create a single executive agent inside the Pentagon tasked with synchronizing U.S.-Israel defense cooperation across research, development, acquisition, manufacturing, and joint exercises. The Senate's parallel bill contains a similar measure, Section 1217. Republican Congressman Thomas Massie of Kentucky, joined by six other Republicans, broke with his party to vote no, calling the provision a betrayal of American sovereignty. Republican Senator Bernie Moreno of Ohio has also come out against defense industrial integration, saying he doesn't think we should integrate our military with anybody. Defenders, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Senator Ted Cruz, argue the section merely formalizes existing cooperation. But as Harrison Berger reports for The American Conservative, the plain text of the provision reaches far beyond programs like Iron Dome. It covers artificial intelligence, quantum technology, biotechnology, cyber, and directed energy, and it leaves the door open for cooperation with essentially any Pentagon entity. Berger notes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself, in a recent Fox News interview, described the arrangement as moving from aid to partnership, and has floated a joint sixteen billion dollar research and development fund. Democratic leadership, Berger writes, has been conspicuously silent, with neither Chuck Schumer nor Hakeem Jeffries responding to requests for comment. Berger's conclusion: by writing this cooperation into statute, Section 219 would make any future unwinding of the relationship far more difficult, no matter who occupies the White House. In an analysis piece, W. James Antle III draws a striking parallel between two figures who shaped the two Trump presidencies. Antle observes that Anthony Fauci pleaded the Fifth this week at nearly the same time memorial services were concluding for the late Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina. His argument is that Fauci's counsel derailed Trump's first term, and Graham's counsel may yet derail the second. In both cases, Antle writes, Trump's first instinct was to defer to the experts, elevating Fauci during the pandemic and trusting Graham's hawkish judgment on Iran. In both cases, the president was assured the crisis would be short. Instead, Antle reports, the Iran War is now in its 153rd day, marked by fruitless negotiations, depleted munitions, and economically ruinous blockades of the Strait of Hormuz that have fueled inflation. Antle cites a new Wall Street Journal documentary in which Graham reportedly told associates after the initial strikes on Iran, quote, look what we've done here, I almost cried. How long have we been pushing this? Some of Graham's aims, according to the reporting, went too far even for Prime Minister Netanyahu. Antle's verdict is that both situations pulled Trump away from what he does best and toward reassuring a nation in crisis, and neither project has redounded to the president's benefit. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

  7. 6d ago

    July 30, 2026

    Good morning! Today is Thursday, July 30th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Iran's Revolutionary Guard struck U.S. positions in Jordan on day 152 of the war, prompting President Trump to vow a "beating" in retaliation, while U.S. and Saudi airstrikes on Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces reportedly killed six Iranian advisers. Dr. Ionut Popescu argues in The American Conservative that the Iran war is a lose-lose trap, with Operation Epic Fury failing to break Tehran while hardliners now menace the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. bases across the region. Popescu warns that more than a thousand Tomahawks expended on Iran, alongside depleted Patriot and THAAD stockpiles, have opened what CSIS calls a dangerous window of vulnerability for a Western Pacific conflict with China. and now for the details. We begin with the war in Iran, now in its 152nd day, where a brief pause in hostilities appears to be over. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched missile attacks on U.S. positions in Jordan, framing the strikes as a response to what Tehran called illegal American interventions. The Jordanian military says it shot down five Iranian missiles, with no casualties or damage reported. In an interview with Fox News, President Trump vowed to give Iran, in his words, "a beating" in retaliation for what he called a surprise attack. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and the United States carried out overnight airstrikes against Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces, responding to attacks on Saudi oil facilities that Washington and Riyadh blame on Iran-aligned Iraqi militants. The Associated Press, citing Iraqi militia officials, reports that six Iranian advisers were killed in that strike. As Harrison Berger reports, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran has rejected Oman's proposal for joint management of the Strait of Hormuz, and Yemen's Houthis are said to be weighing tolls on maritime traffic through the Red Sea. Shipping tracker Kpler showed an uptick in commercial crossings through both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb. Brent Crude sat at ninety dollars a barrel Wednesday morning, with the AAA national average price of regular gasoline at four dollars and nine cents per gallon. Turning to analysis of that conflict, Dr. Ionut Popescu argues in The American Conservative that the Iran war is a lose-lose situation for both Washington and Tehran, and a symptom of a larger disease: American adherence to a militaristic grand strategy that ignores the realities of a multipolar world. Popescu writes that since Operation Epic Fury launched in late February, heavy-handed military confrontation has failed to produce structural change inside the Iranian regime. Instead, it has pushed Tehran toward more disruptive capabilities, and hardliners now hold the Strait of Hormuz hostage and threaten U.S. bases across the region. Popescu points to Clausewitz's warning that war must serve policy. The U.S. air campaign, he says, achieved tactical successes, destroying nuclear facilities and air defenses, but failed at its core objectives of neutralizing Iran's nuclear program and triggering regime change. A late June Quinnipiac poll found sixty percent of voters believed the military action was not worth it, with sixty-two percent disapproving of the president's handling. Popescu also cites a recent Center for Strategic and International Studies analysis warning that the U.S. has fired more than a thousand Tomahawk missiles at Iran, a stockpile that will take until late 2030 to replenish, and that Patriot and THAAD interceptor inventories may not recover until the end of the decade. CSIS calls this a window of vulnerability for a potential Western Pacific conflict. Popescu's conclusion: every carrier strike group tied down in the Middle East is diverted from great-power competition with China, and the prudent path is a negotiated return to the status quo ante. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

  8. Jul 29

    July 29, 2026

    Good morning! Today is Wednesday, July 29th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. With the Iran War entering its 151st day, Netanyahu lands in Washington pressing Trump to expand strikes as gas prices climb and Houthi attacks rattle Saudi oil infrastructure. The once-solid Israel-Turkey partnership is fracturing into open rivalry, and analysts warn Washington should resist being pulled into another regional confrontation shaped by Israeli anxieties. Looking toward 2028, Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, and Rand Paul each embody a rival vision—fusionism, populism, and libertarianism—that could complicate a Vance or Rubio coronation. and now for the details. We begin with the ongoing Iran War, now in its one hundred and fifty-first day. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in Washington on Tuesday for his eighth meeting with President Trump this term, even as the recent pause in direct hostilities between the United States and Iran holds. President Trump used a Fox News interview to threaten strikes on Iran's Pickaxe Mountain facility if no deal is reached, telling the network, quote, "Bibi is telling me" about Pickaxe "because he wants me to stay involved." As Harrison Berger reports for The American Conservative, the Financial Times, citing a source briefed on the trip, says Netanyahu came to Washington to push for expanded operations against Iran, wanting the fight to be, quote, "about more than just Hormuz." The Prime Minister is also expected to raise objections to a possible U.S. sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey. Meanwhile, satellite imagery confirms damage to gas storage tanks at Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq facility, the world's largest crude processing plant, after a Houthi strike. Commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb strait has slowed. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on television that Israel wants to strike Iran's energy targets, but the United States has not approved such strikes over concerns of a global oil crisis. Brent crude sat at eighty-seven dollars a barrel Tuesday morning. AAA put the national average price of regular gas at four dollars and ten cents. Staying with the region, the growing rupture between Israel and Turkey is drawing new scrutiny. Prime Minister Netanyahu has called Turkey's regional aspirations aggressive, and other Israeli officials have floated Turkey's removal from NATO. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has gone so far as to declare that, quote, "Turkey is the new Iran." As Mason Letteau Stallings writes for The American Conservative, this represents a striking reversal. Turkey was the first major Muslim-majority country to recognize Israel, and the two nations spent decades as strategic partners, cooperating on defense, trade, disaster relief, and in the Caucasus through their shared support for Azerbaijan. Stallings argues that the current shift follows a pattern Israel earlier ran against Iran. He cites analyst Trita Parsi, author of Treacherous Alliance, who notes that Israel's rivalry with Iran hardened in the 1990s not because of Iranian ideology, which was then moderating, but because the Soviet Union and Ba'athist Iraq had faded as common threats. With no buffers left, Iran's power itself became the problem. Parsi told the magazine that the same logic now applies to Turkey. As Iranian influence in the Levant has shriveled with the fall of Assad and the weakening of Hezbollah, and as Azerbaijan has decisively beaten Armenia, the glue holding Israel and Turkey together has dissolved. Stallings' conclusion for American policymakers is direct: Washington should not allow Israeli fears about a rising Turkey to shape U.S. decisions, and if tensions escalate further, the United States should stay well clear. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

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