Copper Weekly

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
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Copper sits at the heart of the energy transition, yet its market still trades on old and new fundamentals colliding. Copper Weekly, a Benchmark Podcast, cuts through the noise in 10–15 minutes, giving you the key moves, the real drivers, and the risks ahead. Hosted by Michael Finch, Head of Strategic Initiatives, and Albert Mackenzie, Copper Analyst & Market Reporter, each episode breaks down the week’s price action and discusses the latest pressing developments shaping this ever-evolving market.   Drawing on Benchmark’s supply and demand expertise, with regular appearances from Piotr Kulas (Lead Supply Analyst) and Daan De Jonge (Lead Demand Analyst), among numerous guest speakers, the show connects short-term market moves with longer-term structural shifts in copper. Whether you trade copper, produce it, consume it, or are tracking the metal that underpins electrification and decarbonisation, Copper Weekly gives you a concise, data-driven briefing every week. Follow now for your weekly download of everything Copper or visit www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper to request a free demo of our services.  Alternatively, to receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, sign up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters  If there’s a copper market question you want us to tackle in a future episode, email the team at copper@benchmarkminerals.com. 

  1. 4d ago

    Tariff Delay Talk Sends Copper Prices Lower

    Copper Weekly is back for episode sixteen, and after months of near-relentless record highs, the market finally took a breather. Mike and Albert unpack a sharp pullback driven by tariff-delay speculation, hotter US inflation data, and a dollar rally, before digging into why the underlying story of an artificial, US-driven tightness remains fully intact. In this episode: Why Prices Fell — A Reuters report suggesting US copper tariffs could be pushed back until after the November midterms, combined with hotter-than-expected inflation and a stronger dollar, pulled the LME three-month price down sharply from recent highs. Albert explains why the market's swift reaction is, in his view, a sign of rational pricing rather than the "odd" behaviour seen in recent months. Would a Delay Really Help Affordability? — Albert makes the case that copper semi-products are already tariffed, so a delay to a cathode tariff may do little for real-world affordability, while the genuine driver of high prices, prolonged uncertainty itself, would remain unresolved. Booked and On the Water — Despite the pullback, US cathode imports are expected to stay elevated through at least October, with shipping data from Chile, Peru and Africa pointing to continued heavy flows regardless of near-term tariff headlines. The Real Global Balance — Benchmark's numbers show a healthy global surplus in both 2025 and 2026, but once material flowing into US inventory is stripped out, the picture flips to a meaningful ex-US deficit. Albert walks through why this split explains why the market outside the US feels tighter than the headline numbers suggest. What Does the Exit Look Like? — Albert argues that any form of tariff clarity is ultimately bearish for LME prices, whether that means a tariff being confirmed, ruled out, or delayed. He flags a delayed implementation as the most disruptive scenario of all, one that could trigger an even larger rush of material into the US before the tariff takes effect. New episodes every week. Follow and rate the show, and keep the questions coming for future episodes. Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals. Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market. To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper  You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters  For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: copper@benchmarkminerals.com

  2. Sep 8

    Copper's Record Rally: Is It Actually Justified?

    Copper Weekly returns for episode fifteen, with the LME three-month price notching yet another all-time high. But this week Albert takes a step back and asks the harder question: is any of this actually justified? A candid, somewhat blunt discussion follows on frothy sentiment, record US imports, and why H1 production disruptions were already priced in long before the headlines caught up. In this episode: Another Record, But Why? — With copper up over 50% since November, Albert makes the case that nothing fundamental has changed enough to justify the move. Of the many market participants Benchmark has spoken to since prices began climbing, only one has offered a genuine justification for levels above $14,000/t. A Self-Reinforcing News Cycle — Known disruptions at Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula and El Teniente keep resurfacing in press coverage well after the market has already absorbed them. Albert explains why big, familiar mine names make for a stickier narrative than a collection of smaller, less newsworthy outages. H1 Production Results, Unpacked — Global mined output came in weaker in H1, but Albert argues this was already known and already priced in. He walks through why H2 typically outperforms H1 seasonally, and why this year should be no exception. Where's the Real Deficit? — With an estimated 1.4 million tonnes of excess copper sitting in US warehouses since the start of the Trump administration, Albert questions how the market can genuinely be tight in aggregate. Strong scrap generation and robust cathode production add further weight to the case that physical material is not actually hard to find. Record US Imports — July saw 223kt of copper cathode imported into the US, roughly three to five times a typical month and a clear record. Albert explains why this build-up could just as easily create "artificial looseness" if the flow ever reverses. The Week Ahead — With the market approaching the third Wednesday of the month once again, Albert flags the cash-to-one-month spread as the key thing to watch, and doesn't rule out the cash price pushing beyond $15,000/t if backwardation reopens. New episodes every week. Follow and rate the show, and keep the questions coming for future episodes. Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals. Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market. To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper  You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters  For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: copper@benchmarkminerals.com

  3. Sep 2

    A Calm Between Two Storms as Volatility Looms

    Copper Weekly is back for episode fourteen, with Mike returning fresh from leave to a market that, on the surface, has been trading quietly sideways. Beneath that calm, though, Albert digs into a fascinating stock picture, a wider look across the base metals complex, and a candid warning about volatility ahead. In this episode: Stocks in the Wrong Place — LME on-warrant material is heavily concentrated in Asia, yet total exchange stocks tell a very different story once you factor in the US, where around 45% of LME stock sits but only 6% of on-warrant material. Albert unpacks why headline stock numbers can mask real regional tightness, and how CME stocks near 680kt add another layer to the picture. The Cancel-and-Rewarrant Cycle — Following last month's dramatic backwardation blowout, Albert explains the mechanics behind repeated cancelling and re-warranting of LME stock, why there's little to stop it happening again and again, and why unseen, non-exchange-deliverable stock building in the US complicates the tightness narrative further. Copper in Context: The Wider Base Metals Picture — Tin has actually outperformed copper since October, and aluminium, zinc and nickel are all showing echoes of copper's own story, from AI-driven demand narratives to acid supply fears out of the Middle East. Albert explores what looking across the base metals complex reveals about how much of the copper rally is genuinely copper-specific. The Month Ahead — With the tariff situation still unresolved and the LME backwardation still broad, Albert predicts continued volatility heading into September, October and beyond, and offers a blunt reminder: at over $14,000/t, copper remains more than $3,000/t above levels considered record-breaking as recently as a few months ago. New episodes every week. Follow and rate the show, and keep the questions coming for future episodes. Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals. Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market. To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper  You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters  For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: copper@benchmarkminerals.com

  4. Aug 26

    LME Stocks Rise and Fall, Chile's Mining Picture Assessed by Supply Analyst Carlos Piñeiro

    Copper Weekly returns for episode thirteen. This week we are joined by Carlos Piñeiro a principal supply analyst at Benchmark, based in Chile. Albert and Carlos talk about rapidly moving LME stocks, AI-related copper demand, and take advantage of Carlos’s expertise to dig into the supply side of the market. In this episode: Significant amounts of LME copper have been cancelled from the LME in the last few days; this comes following lots of material being re-warranted and put back on the LME across last week. Those deliveries quelled the backwardation. However, now that the market is back closer to normal, large amounts of material has once again been cancelled. LME prices have therefore recovered from their slight dip last week. Looking forward, the question remains whether we will continue to see volatility on the LME with the US tariff situation still unresolved. We also discuss the US dollar and how declines in the US dollar index may have helped pull up the copper price. Carlos goes over how storms in Chile are impacting copper supply, and discusses whether they are likely to have any real impact on the markets, or whether the coverage of the disruptions just indicates the skittishness currently seen in the around supply disruption. Lastly, we cover how AI demand is impacting the copper market and pose the question: Is AI demand really as important as it is presented?  Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals. Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market. To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper  You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters  For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: copper@benchmarkminerals.com

  5. Aug 18

    A Third Week of Record Highs; LME Tightness Bites

    Copper Weekly returns for episode twelve, marking a third consecutive week of all-time highs. But this time the story isn't just about price, it's about shape. Mike and Albert dig into a dramatic backwardation on the LME, what it reveals about nearby tightness, and why the rally already looks to be unwinding by the time of recording. In this episode: A Different Kind of Record — This week's record was set on the cash price rather than the three-month, as the LME slipped into a steep backwardation with the front month trading around $400 above the next. Albert explains what that shape tells us about physical tightness right now. Contango vs Backwardation, Explained — For listeners newer to the terminology, Albert breaks down the basics: why futures markets typically trade in contango, and what it means when nearby prices spike above future ones instead. Two Hungry Markets — With both China and the US pulling hard on available material, Albert unpacks the cancellations seen in LME warehouses across Taiwan and Korea, and why that pattern points to genuine Chinese demand layering on top of the ongoing US pull. A Rare Arbitrage Flip — The LME briefly traded above the CME on the nearby month for the first time in months, even as the forward curve told a very different story. Albert explains why this doesn't signal a repeat of earlier CME-to-LME stock shifts. What's the "Real" Copper Price? — Albert offers a rough estimate that copper's fundamentally justified level sits closer to $10,000-11,000/t, with the premium above that reflecting the ongoing tariff-driven pull of material into the US, a factor that has to unwind eventually. Copper vs Aluminium — With the copper-aluminium ratio sitting around 4.5 times, Albert discusses where substitution becomes economically attractive, and why the impact often gets diluted well before it reaches the end consumer. The Week Ahead — Albert flags LME deliveries and the backwardation itself as the key things to watch, especially after a sharp reversal saw prices tumble from record highs within the same trading day. New episodes every week. Follow and rate the show, and keep the questions coming for future episodes. Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals. Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market. To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper  You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters  For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: copper@benchmarkminerals.com

  6. Aug 11

    LME Copper Hits New Records as Treatment Charges Collapse

    Copper Weekly is back for episode eleven, and the headlines write themselves: the LME cash price has now spent six consecutive days above $14,000/t, its longest run at that level ever. Mike and Albert dig into what's driving the record run, why treatment charges have collapsed to fresh lows, and lay out detailed scenarios for how the US tariff situation could play out. They also answer listener questions for the first time. In this episode: A New Kind of Record High — The LME cash price has broken its all-time high while the three-month price hasn't, a reversal of the pattern seen last time records fell. Albert explains the mix of factors behind it, from a weaker dollar to a DRC concentrate export story with limited real substance, and the ongoing pull of copper into both China and the US simultaneously. Treatment Charges in Freefall — TCs have crashed through minus $170/t, a level Albert says would have seemed unthinkable even a year ago. He breaks down the structural imbalance between surging smelter capacity and slower growth in concentrate supply. Tariff Scenario Planning — With no fresh developments on Section 232, Albert walks through Benchmark's scenario work: continued delay, immediate implementation, delayed implementation, and no tariff at all. He explains why prolonged uncertainty may actually suit the current US administration, and why nearly every scenario looks bullish for prices in the short term but bearish in the long run. Listener Questions — In a new segment, Albert addresses two audience questions: whether AI hyperscalers are lobbying on tariff policy, and whether tariffs are really the right tool to rebuild America's copper smelting capacity. New episodes every week. Follow and rate the show, and keep the questions coming for future episodes. Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals. Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market. To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper  You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters  For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: copper@benchmarkminerals.com

  7. Aug 4

    Copper Nears All-Time Highs as US Imports Surge

    Benchmark's Copper Weekly is back for episode ten. Mike and Albert unpack a week of standout price action, record-breaking US import flows, and a mining equities picture that's turning heads across the industry. In this episode: Approaching All-Time Highs — Copper pushed close to $14,000/t during recording, its strongest level since early June. Albert explains why weather disruption in Chile has shifted sentiment despite limited material impact, and why falling stocks across the LME, SHFE and Chinese social inventories are the real story behind the move. Record US Imports — Reports suggest at least 200kt of copper cathode is heading into the US in July alone, a figure that would make it one of the largest single-month import totals on record and more than most nations import in an entire year. Albert breaks down why this year's flows differ from last year's more ad hoc rush, thanks to earlier positioning built into annual contract negotiations. A Shifting European Trade Flow — With CME-deliverable Chilean cathode being pulled toward the US, Europe has turned increasingly to DRC and Chinese origin material. Albert notes European imports of Chinese-origin cathode this year already rival the cumulative total of the past two decades. Global Tightness, US Abundance — LME stocks are down 80kt in a month, SHFE down around 70kt, and Chinese social inventories down roughly 100kt. Albert explains the concept of material being "economically locked" in the US, and why the rest-of-world market may effectively be running a deficit even as the global balance shows a surplus. Mining Equities and Blowout Earnings — Rio Tinto and Anglo American posted profit growth of 43% and 35% respectively, with copper now approaching half of BHP's revenue mix and around a quarter of Rio Tinto's. Albert explains why elevated prices translate into outsized profit growth for already-profitable miners, and why copper has become an increasingly central part of the investment case for diversified majors. New episodes every week. Follow the show and leave a rating — it helps us reach more listeners across the copper market and beyond. Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals. Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market. To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper  You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters  For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: copper@benchmarkminerals.com

  8. Jul 28

    Call to Arms or Cause for Alarm? Codelco's Scott Crooks on the Supply Gap

    Copper Weekly returns for episode nine — and this week the show does something different. For the first time, Mike and Albert are joined by a special guest: Scott Crooks, principal analyst at Codelco, who brings deep experience from both research houses and one of the world's largest copper producers. Together they tackle one of the most talked-about and most misunderstood concepts in the market: the copper supply gap. In this episode: What the Supply Gap Really Is — Benchmark's base case puts the 2035 supply gap at around 6.6Mt, a number that gets thrown around widely in the media. Mike, Albert and Scott dig into how these charts are actually built and why the gap is best understood as a modelling output, not a prediction of a literal shortfall. An Artificial Gap? — Scott makes the case that for large mines with existing infrastructure, the modelled decline is somewhat artificial. Companies rarely shut a mine outright; they drill, extend and expand. In his view, the size of the gap tells you more about the price response required to bring supply online than about any real future deficit. A Call to Arms — Albert reframes the supply gap as a challenge laid down to the mining industry rather than a forecast of doom. Waking up short several million tonnes in 2035 simply is not how it works; the gap is a nuanced signal of what needs to be done, not a guarantee of what will happen. If the Incentive Is There, Where's the Supply? — With prices near $13,600/t and Benchmark's incentive price around $11,500/t, why hasn't a wave of new supply arrived? Scott points to hard lessons from post-financial-crisis overcapacity, shareholder pressure, quarterly reporting cycles, and the stark contrast between Western majors and state-backed Chinese investment taking a longer-term view. Limited Upside, Unlimited Downside — The panel explores why brownfield expansions have become the preferred route to de-risk projects, why greenfield megaprojects remain scarce, and how M&A activity absorbs capital without necessarily adding new supply. Squaring the Demand Side — From thrifting and substitution at high prices to the outsized and often overlooked role of Chinese construction, Albert explains why demand forecasts for nascent sectors like AI and the energy transition deserve a healthy dose of caution. The Key Takeaway — Understand what the supply gap is, what it isn't, and what closing it will actually require: greenfields, brownfields and technology all coming together at once. New episodes every week. Follow the show and leave a rating — it helps us reach more listeners across the copper market and beyond. Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals. Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market. To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper  You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters  For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: copper@benchmarkminerals.com

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About

Copper sits at the heart of the energy transition, yet its market still trades on old and new fundamentals colliding. Copper Weekly, a Benchmark Podcast, cuts through the noise in 10–15 minutes, giving you the key moves, the real drivers, and the risks ahead. Hosted by Michael Finch, Head of Strategic Initiatives, and Albert Mackenzie, Copper Analyst & Market Reporter, each episode breaks down the week’s price action and discusses the latest pressing developments shaping this ever-evolving market.   Drawing on Benchmark’s supply and demand expertise, with regular appearances from Piotr Kulas (Lead Supply Analyst) and Daan De Jonge (Lead Demand Analyst), among numerous guest speakers, the show connects short-term market moves with longer-term structural shifts in copper. Whether you trade copper, produce it, consume it, or are tracking the metal that underpins electrification and decarbonisation, Copper Weekly gives you a concise, data-driven briefing every week. Follow now for your weekly download of everything Copper or visit www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper to request a free demo of our services.  Alternatively, to receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, sign up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters  If there’s a copper market question you want us to tackle in a future episode, email the team at copper@benchmarkminerals.com. 

Information

  • Creator
    Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
  • Years Active
    2026
  • Episodes
    16
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
  • Show Website
    Copper Weekly

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