Copper Weekly

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
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Copper sits at the heart of the energy transition, yet its market still trades on old and new fundamentals colliding. Copper Weekly, a Benchmark Podcast, cuts through the noise in 10–15 minutes, giving you the key moves, the real drivers, and the risks ahead. Hosted by Michael Finch, Head of Strategic Initiatives, and Albert Mackenzie, Copper Analyst & Market Reporter, each episode breaks down the week’s price action and discusses the latest pressing developments shaping this ever-evolving market.   Drawing on Benchmark’s supply and demand expertise, with regular appearances from Piotr Kulas (Lead Supply Analyst) and Daan De Jonge (Lead Demand Analyst), among numerous guest speakers, the show connects short-term market moves with longer-term structural shifts in copper. Whether you trade copper, produce it, consume it, or are tracking the metal that underpins electrification and decarbonisation, Copper Weekly gives you a concise, data-driven briefing every week. Follow now for your weekly download of everything Copper or visit www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper to request a free demo of our services.  Alternatively, to receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, sign up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters  If there’s a copper market question you want us to tackle in a future episode, email the team at copper@benchmarkminerals.com. 

  1. Oct 15

    LME Week 2026 Preview: Five Key Themes Shaping the Copper Market

    Copper Weekly returns with a longer-than-usual pre-LME Week special. Mike and Albert work through the five themes dominating meetings in London and set to shape conversations across LME Week: record-low treatment charges, European cathode premiums, US tariff uncertainty, long-term supply gap fears, and the question hanging over every meeting, why copper is still so expensive. In this episode: Treatment Charges in Free Fall - Spot TCs have dropped to around minus $240/t, with some deals now done at a discount to the index. Albert explains the smelter overcapacity behind it, Indonesia’s export restrictions, and why Benchmark puts the marginal smelter’s breakeven well above that level. With annual benchmark talks about to begin, he also looks at whether a split or broken benchmark system is on the cards, and why side terms such as gold payables could matter as much as the headline number. Cathode Premiums - Aurubis’s 2027 European premium has landed at $347/t. Albert explains why he wasn’t surprised, why last year’s contract rounds favoured buyers who secured units early, and what Codelco’s offer and Asian premiums might look like when Chinese buyers have been far less accepting of high levels. Tariff Uncertainty and the US Stock Build - Albert forecasts US cathode imports above 800kt this year, adding to an estimated 1.7 to 1.8Mt of stock built up since the current administration took office. The conversation covers whether imports slow into 2027, whether some of that stock is genuinely new or simply repositioned from elsewhere in the supply chain, and why timing around the US midterms matters. Fears of a Supply Gap - Albert argues the supply gap has always been a theoretical construct rather than a forecast deficit, and explains why the DRC, Chinese investment, scrap and weak Chinese construction demand all complicate the shortage narrative. He also gives a sceptical view of some AI demand forecasts. Why Is the Price So High? - Benchmark’s forecasts sit below some recent bank views, with 2026 averaging around $13,700/t and a lower figure expected next year. Albert explains the fundamentals-led case, while acknowledging that the tariff could push prices either way. The Week Ahead - With the LME in backwardation and the third Wednesday of the month approaching, Albert flags the potential for volatility during LME Week itself. New episodes every week. Follow and rate the show, and keep the questions coming for future episodes. Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals. Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market. To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper  You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters  For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: copper@benchmarkminerals.com

  2. Oct 7

    Cobre Panama, Chile Strikes and China's Concentrate Slowdown

    Copper Weekly returns with a different line-up. With Mike away, Albert is joined by Carlos Pineiro, Benchmark's supply analyst, dialling in from Santiago. It's a supply-heavy week: Cobre Panama's government report, a slowdown in Chinese concentrate imports, and strike votes at two of Chile's biggest mines. In this episode: Lessons from Geneva. Albert reports back from the copper seminar, where interest outstripped the room. The conversation kept coming back to working capital. High prices benefit miners, but processors and traders now have far more money tied up in the same tonnes, at a time of high borrowing costs.Tariffs and Inventories in the Wrong Place. Visible stocks look high on paper, yet much of that material sits in the US and isn't available for price formation. Albert and Carlos explain why that keeps the market feeling tight and why the eventual unwind remains the biggest risk to any price forecast.Cobre Panama's Open-to-Close Question. The government's recommendation has been read in very different ways. Albert and Carlos unpack the language around the mine's footprint, why expansion into further pits matters over a 25-year horizon, and why nobody yet knows what the report really means in practice.China's Concentrate Slowdown. Imports in July and August were below last year's levels, and no Indonesian concentrate has arrived in China so far this quarter. Carlos explains how smelter capacity growth across China, Indonesia and India is starting to bite.Strike Votes at Escondida and Centinela. Together the two mines account for around 28% of Chilean output. Carlos walks through the mediation process, how long a stoppage would need to last before output is hit, and why high prices give both sides a reason to settle quickly.New episodes every week. Follow and rate the show, and keep the questions coming for future episodes. Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals. Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market. To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper  You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters  For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: copper@benchmarkminerals.com

  3. Sep 30

    China Stocks Hit Multi-Year Lows Ahead of Golden Week

    Copper Weekly returns for episode eighteen, recorded on the road from Geneva as Albert wraps up a week of smelter visits and financial meetings across Austria and Switzerland. Prices held relatively firm despite some pressure, with China's approach to Golden Week, a fast-growing but opaque Russian concentrate story, and rising strike tensions in Chile all in focus. In this episode: Steady Prices Ahead of Golden Week — With stocks in China at their lowest since January 2024 and import premiums hitting four-year highs, Albert explains why Chinese buying looks particularly acute this year, and why hand-to-mouth purchasing behaviour, now common across the market more broadly, is creating sharp price bounces whenever levels dip. Russia's Quietly Growing Concentrate Story — Concentrate exports from Russia have roughly doubled year-on-year, driven largely by Malmyzh, likely the largest new greenfield copper mine to come online in the past year. Albert explains why this growth has gone largely uncovered, and how the opacity of Russian trade flows makes it far harder to track than a comparable project in Chile or Peru. Strike Risk at Escondida and Centinela — With workers at Centinela having voted to strike and larger negotiations building at Escondida, the world's biggest copper mine, Albert breaks down what's being asked for, why Chilean law now brings government mediation into play, and why the two mines together account for around 28% of Chile's annual output. Why Strikes Cluster at High Prices — Albert shares his own pattern observation that labour tension tends to rise alongside copper prices, as workers seek a greater share of a mine's now much higher profitability. The Week Ahead — All eyes turn to how China's market behaves once Golden Week ends, and whether the recent drawdown in stocks continues as the market heads towards LME Week. New episodes every week. Follow and rate the show, and keep the questions coming for future episodes. Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals. Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market. To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper  You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters  For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: copper@benchmarkminerals.com

  4. Sep 22

    China Demand Returns: Copper Rushes Back Towards Record Highs

    Copper Weekly returns for episode seventeen, with copper clawing back much of the ground it lost the week before and pushing back towards its all-time high. Mike and Albert dig into China's role in the recovery, question whether a widely reported mine supply contraction really holds up, and look ahead to a potentially pivotal week of US-China diplomacy. In this episode: China Leads the Bounce — Import premiums into China hit a four-year high, with nearly 30,000 tonnes of LME stock cancelled in Asia over the past week on genuine physical demand. Albert explains why dips below $14,000/t have repeatedly triggered buying interest, and why that pattern may be tied to Golden Week positioning as much as price opportunism. Is Mine Supply Really Contracting? — Recent coverage has suggested mined copper output could fall year-on-year for the first time in some time. Albert explains why Benchmark isn't yet seeing that in its own numbers, pointing to a stronger seasonal second half and the ongoing recovery from last year's disruptions at Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula and El Teniente. Scrap's Growing but Limited Role — With refined production holding up despite softer mine growth, Albert and Mike explore how higher prices draw scrap onto the market, why China's maturing infrastructure cycle is becoming a meaningful source of recycled material, and why scrap alone can't be relied upon to close a growing demand gap. The Week Ahead — All eyes turn to Washington, where Xi Jinping and Donald Trump are set to meet. Albert flags the potential for any shift, positive or negative, in US-China trade relations to move the copper price meaningfully, even as the market has recently shrugged off other bearish signals like the Fed's rate rise. New episodes every week. Follow and rate the show, and keep the questions coming for future episodes. Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals. Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market. To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper  You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters  For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: copper@benchmarkminerals.com

  5. Sep 15

    Tariff Delay Talk Sends Copper Prices Lower

    Copper Weekly is back for episode sixteen, and after months of near-relentless record highs, the market finally took a breather. Mike and Albert unpack a sharp pullback driven by tariff-delay speculation, hotter US inflation data, and a dollar rally, before digging into why the underlying story of an artificial, US-driven tightness remains fully intact. In this episode: Why Prices Fell — A Reuters report suggesting US copper tariffs could be pushed back until after the November midterms, combined with hotter-than-expected inflation and a stronger dollar, pulled the LME three-month price down sharply from recent highs. Albert explains why the market's swift reaction is, in his view, a sign of rational pricing rather than the "odd" behaviour seen in recent months. Would a Delay Really Help Affordability? — Albert makes the case that copper semi-products are already tariffed, so a delay to a cathode tariff may do little for real-world affordability, while the genuine driver of high prices, prolonged uncertainty itself, would remain unresolved. Booked and On the Water — Despite the pullback, US cathode imports are expected to stay elevated through at least October, with shipping data from Chile, Peru and Africa pointing to continued heavy flows regardless of near-term tariff headlines. The Real Global Balance — Benchmark's numbers show a healthy global surplus in both 2025 and 2026, but once material flowing into US inventory is stripped out, the picture flips to a meaningful ex-US deficit. Albert walks through why this split explains why the market outside the US feels tighter than the headline numbers suggest. What Does the Exit Look Like? — Albert argues that any form of tariff clarity is ultimately bearish for LME prices, whether that means a tariff being confirmed, ruled out, or delayed. He flags a delayed implementation as the most disruptive scenario of all, one that could trigger an even larger rush of material into the US before the tariff takes effect. New episodes every week. Follow and rate the show, and keep the questions coming for future episodes. Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals. Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market. To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper  You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters  For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: copper@benchmarkminerals.com

  6. Sep 8

    Copper's Record Rally: Is It Actually Justified?

    Copper Weekly returns for episode fifteen, with the LME three-month price notching yet another all-time high. But this week Albert takes a step back and asks the harder question: is any of this actually justified? A candid, somewhat blunt discussion follows on frothy sentiment, record US imports, and why H1 production disruptions were already priced in long before the headlines caught up. In this episode: Another Record, But Why? — With copper up over 50% since November, Albert makes the case that nothing fundamental has changed enough to justify the move. Of the many market participants Benchmark has spoken to since prices began climbing, only one has offered a genuine justification for levels above $14,000/t. A Self-Reinforcing News Cycle — Known disruptions at Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula and El Teniente keep resurfacing in press coverage well after the market has already absorbed them. Albert explains why big, familiar mine names make for a stickier narrative than a collection of smaller, less newsworthy outages. H1 Production Results, Unpacked — Global mined output came in weaker in H1, but Albert argues this was already known and already priced in. He walks through why H2 typically outperforms H1 seasonally, and why this year should be no exception. Where's the Real Deficit? — With an estimated 1.4 million tonnes of excess copper sitting in US warehouses since the start of the Trump administration, Albert questions how the market can genuinely be tight in aggregate. Strong scrap generation and robust cathode production add further weight to the case that physical material is not actually hard to find. Record US Imports — July saw 223kt of copper cathode imported into the US, roughly three to five times a typical month and a clear record. Albert explains why this build-up could just as easily create "artificial looseness" if the flow ever reverses. The Week Ahead — With the market approaching the third Wednesday of the month once again, Albert flags the cash-to-one-month spread as the key thing to watch, and doesn't rule out the cash price pushing beyond $15,000/t if backwardation reopens. New episodes every week. Follow and rate the show, and keep the questions coming for future episodes. Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals. Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market. To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper  You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters  For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: copper@benchmarkminerals.com

  7. Sep 2

    A Calm Between Two Storms as Volatility Looms

    Copper Weekly is back for episode fourteen, with Mike returning fresh from leave to a market that, on the surface, has been trading quietly sideways. Beneath that calm, though, Albert digs into a fascinating stock picture, a wider look across the base metals complex, and a candid warning about volatility ahead. In this episode: Stocks in the Wrong Place — LME on-warrant material is heavily concentrated in Asia, yet total exchange stocks tell a very different story once you factor in the US, where around 45% of LME stock sits but only 6% of on-warrant material. Albert unpacks why headline stock numbers can mask real regional tightness, and how CME stocks near 680kt add another layer to the picture. The Cancel-and-Rewarrant Cycle — Following last month's dramatic backwardation blowout, Albert explains the mechanics behind repeated cancelling and re-warranting of LME stock, why there's little to stop it happening again and again, and why unseen, non-exchange-deliverable stock building in the US complicates the tightness narrative further. Copper in Context: The Wider Base Metals Picture — Tin has actually outperformed copper since October, and aluminium, zinc and nickel are all showing echoes of copper's own story, from AI-driven demand narratives to acid supply fears out of the Middle East. Albert explores what looking across the base metals complex reveals about how much of the copper rally is genuinely copper-specific. The Month Ahead — With the tariff situation still unresolved and the LME backwardation still broad, Albert predicts continued volatility heading into September, October and beyond, and offers a blunt reminder: at over $14,000/t, copper remains more than $3,000/t above levels considered record-breaking as recently as a few months ago. New episodes every week. Follow and rate the show, and keep the questions coming for future episodes. Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals. Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market. To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper  You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters  For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: copper@benchmarkminerals.com

  8. Aug 26

    LME Stocks Rise and Fall, Chile's Mining Picture Assessed by Supply Analyst Carlos Piñeiro

    Copper Weekly returns for episode thirteen. This week we are joined by Carlos Piñeiro a principal supply analyst at Benchmark, based in Chile. Albert and Carlos talk about rapidly moving LME stocks, AI-related copper demand, and take advantage of Carlos’s expertise to dig into the supply side of the market. In this episode: Significant amounts of LME copper have been cancelled from the LME in the last few days; this comes following lots of material being re-warranted and put back on the LME across last week. Those deliveries quelled the backwardation. However, now that the market is back closer to normal, large amounts of material has once again been cancelled. LME prices have therefore recovered from their slight dip last week. Looking forward, the question remains whether we will continue to see volatility on the LME with the US tariff situation still unresolved. We also discuss the US dollar and how declines in the US dollar index may have helped pull up the copper price. Carlos goes over how storms in Chile are impacting copper supply, and discusses whether they are likely to have any real impact on the markets, or whether the coverage of the disruptions just indicates the skittishness currently seen in the around supply disruption. Lastly, we cover how AI demand is impacting the copper market and pose the question: Is AI demand really as important as it is presented?  Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals. Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market. To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper  You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters  For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: copper@benchmarkminerals.com

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About

Copper sits at the heart of the energy transition, yet its market still trades on old and new fundamentals colliding. Copper Weekly, a Benchmark Podcast, cuts through the noise in 10–15 minutes, giving you the key moves, the real drivers, and the risks ahead. Hosted by Michael Finch, Head of Strategic Initiatives, and Albert Mackenzie, Copper Analyst & Market Reporter, each episode breaks down the week’s price action and discusses the latest pressing developments shaping this ever-evolving market.   Drawing on Benchmark’s supply and demand expertise, with regular appearances from Piotr Kulas (Lead Supply Analyst) and Daan De Jonge (Lead Demand Analyst), among numerous guest speakers, the show connects short-term market moves with longer-term structural shifts in copper. Whether you trade copper, produce it, consume it, or are tracking the metal that underpins electrification and decarbonisation, Copper Weekly gives you a concise, data-driven briefing every week. Follow now for your weekly download of everything Copper or visit www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper to request a free demo of our services.  Alternatively, to receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, sign up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters  If there’s a copper market question you want us to tackle in a future episode, email the team at copper@benchmarkminerals.com. 

Information

  • Creator
    Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
  • Years Active
    2026
  • Episodes
    20
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 Benchmark Mineral Intelligence
  • Show Website
    Copper Weekly

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