Pre-Primary Palooza: What to Watch Tuesday Night A new poll from JMC Analytics has Zach Lahn at 24%, Feenstra at 22%, and Steen at 15% — with 27% still undecided. We’re not putting too much weight in it, but it would explain why Feenstra went negative this week, hitting Lahn over a past investment in a men’s health company. Frontrunners don’t attack candidates they aren’t worried about. An outside group sharing a consultant with the Lahn campaign also launched its own immigration hit on Feenstra, so the gloves are off heading into Tuesday. Steen has the Family Leader network behind him, which has powered late surges before — but without TV money, he risks losing anti-Feenstra voters to Lahn if they consolidate around the more viable option. Dave stopped by a Feenstra house party Wednesday night and came away puzzled. Terry Branstad, the Lt. Governor, the Secretary of Ag — a full Republican who’s who — but no energy, no closing argument, just the standard Pizza Ranch stump speech. Meanwhile Lahn has been packing town halls with 100-150 people. The contrast is hard to ignore. On the Democratic side, VoteVets has dropped $10 million since mid-March for Josh Turek — more than Hubbell spent in all of 2018. Zach Wahls has the Iowa résumé and is leaning on an outsider frame, but electability seems to be the real tiebreaker for Democratic primary voters, and that spending has erased Turek’s early name ID gap fast. We’ll know a lot more by next week. See you then. A huge thank you to everyone who has already become a paid subscriber — your support is what keeps this conversation going. If you’ve been listening and haven’t yet, please consider subscribing or making a one-time donation through the link below. We’ve got a big year of Iowa politics ahead and we don’t want to stop now. Auto-generated transcript below: 00:00:39.840 --> 00:00:49.230 Dave Price: Hi everyone, welcome to the Iowa Down Ballot podcast. This is our pre-primary election Extravaganza. 10 00:00:49.350 --> 00:00:55.330 Dave Price: Hi, I’m Dave Price, joined by Laura Belin and Kathie Obradovich. Hello, ladies, how are you? 11 00:00:55.660 --> 00:01:02.849 Kathie Obradovich: Hello. Happy Friday. I think Primary Palooza is what we want to go with, don’t you think? 12 00:01:02.850 --> 00:01:04.859 Dave Price: Like, let’s start this sucker over again. 13 00:01:05.080 --> 00:01:05.989 Kathie Obradovich: No, no, no, no. 14 00:01:05.990 --> 00:01:11.849 Dave Price: I dug out… I was trying to think of a prop, you know, I keep different things. 15 00:01:11.850 --> 00:01:12.640 Laura Belin: This is from… 16 00:01:12.640 --> 00:01:17.069 Dave Price: there was, way back in the day. 17 00:01:17.240 --> 00:01:33.119 Dave Price: Back in my hometown in southern Illinois, Belleville, Illinois, there was a longtime member of Congress named Mel Price, Melvin Price. I do not believe we were related to him in any way, but, 18 00:01:33.190 --> 00:01:48.070 Dave Price: my dad was sort of, like, both ways. Like, for a while, he was involved in Democratic politics when he worked for this stove company, and he was, he worked, I remember once a month on Saturdays working for the union, and then he was kind of one of those, 19 00:01:48.070 --> 00:01:55.170 Dave Price: He got laid off during the Carter administration, he flipped over and became one of these Reagan Democrats and kind of stuck with… 20 00:01:55.420 --> 00:02:01.079 Dave Price: the Republicans most of the rest of his life, although he was a Ross Perot guy in there, too. My dad was a… 21 00:02:01.180 --> 00:02:15.670 Dave Price: He was a fascinating swing voter over the time. I should have… I wish I would have recorded more stories with him before he passed away. But anyway, this is my… I’ve always kept this, and since it doesn’t say Mel on there, then… 22 00:02:15.670 --> 00:02:16.700 Laura Belin: That’s right. 23 00:02:17.290 --> 00:02:20.559 Dave Price: when I… when I… when I launch one day. 24 00:02:20.560 --> 00:02:31.959 Kathie Obradovich: I could be your running mate, Dave, because I received a fortune in a fortune cookie just the other day that says, your determination will lead to victory in November. 25 00:02:31.960 --> 00:02:33.550 Dave Price: So… 26 00:02:34.510 --> 00:02:44.530 Kathie Obradovich: I don’t know whose fortune cookie I got, it clearly wasn’t intended for me, but it’s like, okay, I guess we’ve got a sort of a political bent here, so… 27 00:02:44.530 --> 00:02:52.939 Dave Price: A bunch of candidates who, who watch this podcast when it drops will probably reach out to you. Can we please have that fortune from you? 28 00:02:53.930 --> 00:02:57.720 Dave Price: Before Tuesday night. Hey, as we’re… 29 00:02:57.970 --> 00:03:20.430 Dave Price: as we’re gathering here, and we are gathering on… on Friday morning, there is a new poll that’s dropped, and Laura, maybe you can start us off. Can you be our asterisk, as we talk about this poll? Because this is a company that we don’t frankly know a lot about, and we are going to intentionally not put too much weight into this. 30 00:03:20.430 --> 00:03:26.039 Dave Price: It is one… new facet, perhaps, in this Republican gubernatorial race. 31 00:03:26.230 --> 00:03:37.469 Dave Price: But if it is true, or if it maybe has picked up on something, it does maybe make some sense with some recent developments that we’ve seen here, right? 32 00:03:37.620 --> 00:03:38.240 Laura Belin: Right. 33 00:03:38.530 --> 00:04:03.490 Laura Belin: So, JMC Analytics and Polling, and they say in their polling memo that they are not affiliated with any candidate running for governor or Senate in Iowa. So, they commissioned this poll of the Republican primary, and the big, shocking top line is that they found Zach Lane with 24% support, Randy Feenstra with 22%, and Adam Steen in third place. 34 00:04:03.490 --> 00:04:15.099 Laura Belin: with 15%, and then a huge number, 27%, undecided. So, if true, that would be very big, and, of course. 35 00:04:15.100 --> 00:04:39.979 Laura Belin: we’ve been saying for a while that Zach Lane, one of his big challenges would be to get his name ID up and consolidate support to allow him to overtake Feenstra, and this would suggest that all of his big spending on digital ads and TV ads may be paying off. Now, the Senate race was a little more of a snooze, with Ashley Henson way ahead, 58% to 19% over Jim Carlin, which is kind of 36 00:04:39.980 --> 00:04:42.640 Laura Belin: in line with, I think, what people would expect. 37 00:04:42.850 --> 00:04:43.580 Dave Price: And… 38 00:04:43.580 --> 00:05:01.400 Kathie Obradovich: Yeah, so, I mean, if this poll is accurate, two things really jump out at me. One, of course, is that Zach Lane has moved into the lead, but two, nobody had 35%, which is what you need to win a primary. That big, undecided 39 00:05:01.440 --> 00:05:19.579 Kathie Obradovich: block, also means that, you know, regardless of what the polls say, it’s still… and this is always really important in primary anyway, it’s still about getting your voters out. So, who has the best, get out the vote? Is, you know, does Zach Lane, can he… 40 00:05:19.690 --> 00:05:30.150 Kathie Obradovich: stand up? Can his get-out-the-vote effort stand up to a really experienced politician like Randy Feenstrod? But, you know, it raises some really interesting questions, I think. 41 00:05:30.280 --> 00:05:48.079 Dave Price: And the get-out-the-vote, as we’ve talked about throughout this podcast, it is the test for Feenstra. Can he translate what he’s pulled off in the fourth, where Republicans always do well in the way that district is? Is it 36 counties, is that right? 42 00:05:48.080 --> 00:05:49.170 Laura Belin: 36 now, yes. 43 00:05:49.170 --> 00:06:09.199 Dave Price: 36 of the 99, so geographically, just a humongous chunk, but it is so heavily Republican there. So Feenstrait’s challenge all throughout has been the other three congressional districts, where would he turn out people there, but also really has to juice his numbers in the fourth, if he can do that, to try to up his game. 44 00:06:09.200 --> 00:06:17.839 Laura Belin: Well, and I don’t know that he can, because remember 2 years ago, he had a primary opponent, Kevin Virgil, who was backed by Steve King. 45 00:06:17.840 --> 00:06:36.569 Laura Belin: And Feenstra won that primary only by 60% to 40% against a guy, you know, hardly anyone had ever heard of 6 months before the primary, who Feenstra outspent by 10 to 1, or maybe more. So I don’t know that he can really count on Northwest Iowa being this solid base of support for him. 46 00:06:37.750 --> 00:06:39.470 Dave Price: Kathie, you saw the… 47 00:06:39.970 --> 00:06:58.990 Kathie Obradovich: I was just gonna say, I mean, it’s a huge geographic area, but, but, you know, you look at the, you know, the population, you know, it’s just a… the big population centers are all elsewhere in the state, so I… it is… it is difficult, I think, to win… win the state by winning the 4th district. 48 00:06:59.080 --> 00:07:00.160 Kathie Obradovich: So… 49 00:07:00.160 --> 00:07:02.160 Dave Price: Okay, so, let’s… 50 00:07:02.770 --> 00:07:16.660 Dave Price: We can talk about this poll, whether this is or isn’t accurate, and how, and as Laura’s pointed out, 126 times, I feel like, in your columns and on your show this year, it is tough to measure the primary electorate, right? 51 00:07:17.640 --> 00:07:19.369 Dave Price: Okay, so Kathie. 52 00:07:19.680 --> 00:07:22.539 Dave Price: What about here late in the game? 53 00:07:22.800 --> 00:07:32.940 Dave Price: So it would be Wednesday night, Thursday morning, I believe, when this thing dropped, but Feenstra, who from the get-go has been the perceived frontrunner in this race. 54 00:07:32.940 --> 00:07:44.429 Dave Price: he goes negative with an ad against Zach Lane. And jus