Liquid Courage

liquidcouragepod
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Let's take a deep dive into the private capital secondaries opportunity! Hosted by David Snow in partnership with Upwelling and Piper Sandler. Produced in partnership with leading secondaries advisory firms Upwelling Capital and Piper Sandler, Liquid Courage is led by financial journalist David Snow, the former Editor-in-Chief of PEI Media. Liquid Courage is a video-podcast presenting thought leadership and research on the global private capital secondaries markets.  Liquid Courage delivers market intelligence and strategic insights into the $500 billion private capital secondaries market, where transaction volume has surpassed $160 billion per year. Liquid Courage is produced by market insiders to help investors succeed in this rapidly evolving and growing asset class. Whether you are an institutional investor hoping to up your portfolio management game, a limited partner in need of liquidity, or a general partner seeking cutting-edge liquidity strategies, Liquid Courage delivers what the smartest minds in private capital know about the vast and variegated secondaries opportunity.

  1. 6d ago

    Future Standard's First Rule: Know the GP

    The LP secondaries market is full of opportunity right now, but separating attractive from problematic portfolios requires an underwriting discipline and depth of GP relationships that most investors simply haven’t built, says Patrick Gerbracht, co-head of LP Secondaries at Future Standard.  Drawing on his experience at Future Standard’s $100 billion AUM platform, Gerbracht tells Liquid Courage why middle market valuations are structurally more conservative than the large-cap market, how GPs with aggressive marks are delaying exits, and why continuation vehicles now have a track record compelling enough to permanently change how investment banks advise private equity sponsors. “The great thing about secondaries is we get to reevaluate the original thesis and ask how things are going,” Gerbracht tells Liquid Courage. “We can bring the macro down to the micro when we re-underwrite these portfolios, and that’s a really powerful tool in an asset class that has done an incredible job of protecting downside on behalf of institutional investors.” Gerbracht joins host David Snow and co-host Joncarlo Mark, partner at Upwelling Capital, in the Liquid Courage episode, “Future Standard’s First Rule: Know the GP.” Among the key takeaways of this Liquid Courage episode: • Middle market GPs consistently mark assets more conservatively than large cap peers. Future Standard routinely sees 10% to 20% gains at exit versus GP marks. Buying at a discount to already-conservative marks creates a powerful upside skew. • GPs with aggressive marks face a psychological trap. Once an LP sees a 2.3x or 2.4x MOIC on paper, the GP is reluctant to take a haircut to exit. They will then extend, delay, and hope to grow into the valuation, which doesn’t always work out. • LPs will accept deeper discounts once remaining NAV becomes small enough. The tipping point comes when a fund’s stub piece is no longer meaningful enough to justify the ongoing administrative burden of tracking it. At that point, a 30 to 35% discount becomes rational. • Knowing the GP is Future Standard’s first rule. GPs control access to secondary transactions and often call preferred buyers directly, making long-term relationships the most important competitive advantage in the LP secondary market. • Continuation vehicles are reorienting investment banking. When banks visit PE sponsors to discuss exit options, the conversation now routinely includes CVs alongside IPOs and M&A. Gerbracht expects CV volume to grow dramatically over the next five to ten years. • The cleanup of underperforming assets will be bifurcated by GP quality. Brand-name GPs face real LP pressure to sell and generate DPI; lower-quality GPs below their hurdle may extend holds for years, until LPs eventually force a sale at whatever the market will bear. Access the full transcript and a searchable library of content at the Liquid Courage Substack. #liquidcourage #secondaries #continuationvehicles #privateequity #gpled #jcurve

  2. Sep 10

    Demand Outstrips Supply For CV Trophy Assets

    Investors chasing high-quality continuation vehicle deals are running into a supply problem, says Zach Schneider, partner at Twin Bridge Capital Partners. Schneider joins Joncarlo Mark, a partner at Upwelling Capital, and Liquid Courage host David Snow to explain why a “flight to quality” is creating oversubscribed processes for trophy assets, even as many lower-quality CV transactions struggle to get done. He also explores what Twin Bridge looks for in a continuation vehicle, how competition is changing pricing and economics, and what could ultimately happen to the underperforming private equity assets that fail to find buyers. Among the key takeaways of this conversation: • Demand for trophy-asset CVs exceeds supply. When a high-quality sponsor brings a high-quality asset to market, Schneider says processes can become meaningfully oversubscribed, shifting negotiating leverage toward sponsors. Meanwhile, many lower-quality transactions never clear the market. • Competition for the best CV assets could intensify. More than 90% of existing LPs in CV transactions are currently choosing liquidity rather than rolling their stakes, creating room for secondary investors. But if that sell rate declines as traditional M&A recovers, capacity for new investors could shrink even as demand for trophy assets continues to grow. • Trophy assets are commanding stronger pricing and economics. Some are trading in the high 90s as a percentage of NAV or even above par, while sponsors of particularly attractive CVs are increasingly securing premium carry tiers of 25% or 30% when certain return thresholds are exceeded. • The market is separating winners from underperformers. In some multi-asset CVs, sponsors have tried pairing one strong company with weaker assets. Schneider says investors are increasingly rejecting those structures, sometimes forcing sponsors to carve out the trophy asset into a single-asset deal and leave the underperformers behind. Access the full transcript and a searchable library of content at the Liquid Courage Substack. #liquidcourage #continuationvehicles #secondaries #privateequity #GPled #privatecapital

  3. Aug 11

    Why Investors are Clamoring for Evergreen Funds

    Evergreen funds have grown rapidly because they make private markets more accessible, according to Brian Gildea, Managing Director of Evergreen Portfolio Solutions at Hamilton Lane. In a wide-ranging conversation with Joncarlo Mark, founder of Upwelling Capital, and Liquid Courage host David Snow, Gildea walks through the investment sourcing and administrative mechanisms that make evergreen structures popular. Key Takeaways: - Evergreen funds shift the burden from investor to manager. Rather than committing capital that's drawn down over years, investors subscribe into a fully built portfolio on day one and choose their own timing for liquidity, subject to fund limits — while the manager takes on the ongoing work of portfolio construction and cash management. - Secondaries (including continuation vehicles, which now make up roughly half the secondary market) help evergreen funds buy into pools of assets closer to liquidity, creating earlier diversification and cash flow, especially in younger funds. - About two-thirds of Hamilton Lane's secondaries returns come from assets appreciating above NAV after purchase, with roughly a third from the initial discount to NAV captured at acquisition. - Evergreen funds complement, not replace, drawdown funds. Larger institutions are increasingly using evergreen vehicles to hit allocation targets faster or build exposure early in a program's life, while continuing to use traditional funds alongside them. Access the full transcript and a searchable content library at the Liquid Courage Substack. #liquidcourage #privateequity #evergreenfunds

  4. Jul 29

    Avoid 'traps' in oil and gas, says Ares secondaries Investor

    Investors should be cautious about the oil and gas price resurgence, says Eddie Keith, head of infrastructure secondaries investing at Ares. Upstream oil and gas are fundamentally incompatible with infrastructure secondaries, Keith tells Liquid Courage. Keith draws on deep experience across energy cycles to explain what separates investable oil and gas opportunities from "traps," why midstream and LNG can sometimes fit an infrastructure mandate while upstream almost never can. Among the key takeaways of this conversation: • Upstream oil and gas contradicts the core promise of infrastructure secondaries. No matter how smart the buy, commodity prices will drive 70 to 80% of the outcome — which directly undermines the stability, predictability, and cash flow yield that infrastructure investors are trying to deliver. • Midstream is not automatically safe. The difference between a take-or-pay contract and an acreage dedication is the difference between infrastructure and a commodity bet. • The energy private equity universe still hasn't recovered from the 2015-2016 crash, leaving capital in the space well below what a natural level would look like today. • Renewables are no longer optional. The explosion of data center power demand means the math simply requires a healthy renewables market, regardless of the political environment. Access the full transcript and a searchable library of content at the Liquid Courage Substack  #coolvector #infrastructure #oilandgas #lng #secondary #privateequity

  5. Jul 21

    European Secondaries are Rapidly Evolving

    The European secondaries landscape mirrors its US counterpart in structure but diverges sharply in size, fragmentation, and the mechanics that govern how continuation vehicles get done, according to Sebastien Burdel, a Partner in Ares Secondaries Group and Oliver Altendorf, a Director at Piper Sandler.  In a fascinating conversation with Liquid Courage's Joncarlo Mark (Upwelling Capital) and David Snow, Burdel and Altendorf paint the picture of a market in transition — thirty percent of European secondary volume is expected to come from CVs this year — while flagging structural friction points unique to Europe, from the fund-level waterfall to multi-jurisdiction tax complexity, that can derail deals that would close cleanly in the US.  The episode also breaks new ground on private credit CVs, where a wave of 2019-vintage funds sitting at 0.6X DPI is quietly creating a new and fast-growing corner of the secondaries market on both sides of the Atlantic. Key Takeaways • CV and M&A markets in Europe are starting to 'blur' - the line between a traditional M&A exit and a continuation vehicle is increasingly porous in Europe, with Oliver Altendorf noting that assets now routinely switch channels mid-process — and in at least one recent case, the CV market actually cleared at a higher valuation than the M&A process, a near-unprecedented outcome that points to how competitive the buy side has become. • European waterfalls can 'twist the reason' for a CV - unlike the US deal-by-deal carry structure, the European fund-level waterfall creates a specific danger zone — a GP hovering just below their hurdle rate whose primary motivation for a CV is to de-risk their carry rather than unlock value for investors, leaving them, as Sebastien Burdel puts it, "neither a good seller nor a good buyer" of the asset. • Valuation disappointments lead GPs to the CV market - a recurring pattern Burdel flags is the GP who runs a full sale process, fails to attract a bid at their expected price, and then pivots to the secondary market as a last resort — a dynamic that has grown more visible as CVs now represent nearly twenty percent of all private equity exits, drawing in assets and managers with no legitimate place in that market. • The 'ideal candidate' for a CV is a successful company - contrary to the perception that CVs exist to manage problem assets, Burdel describes the archetypal European CV as a company held three to four years at a three-to-four-times return, where the GP simply believes it would be leaving money on the table to sell now — and the CV structure allows existing LPs to take liquidity while new capital funds the next leg of growth, whether organic, through M&A, or via geographic expansion into new European markets or the US. Access the full transcript and a searchable library of secondaries content at the Liquid Courage Substack. #privateequity #liquidity #secondary #europe

  6. Jun 16

    Data Center Deals are Appearing on the Secondaries Radar

    Data center owners are turning to the infrastructure secondaries market for capital, and getting pushback over unrealistic valuations, says Eddie Keith, Partner and Head of Infrastructure Secondaries in the Ares Secondaries Group.  In a fascinating conversation, Keith tells Liquid Courage how digital infrastructure has rapidly evolved from a fringe asset class into one of the most active and compelling corners of the secondaries market, driven by capital needs that outpace what traditional fund structures can accommodate.  Keith draws on nearly two decades of secondaries experience to lay out what separates a smart infrastructure secondary from a trap, why the asset class rewards diversification, and the criticality of  mature cash-flowing assets anchored to a strong development pipeline.  Among the key takeaways: • Troubled data center deals are of no interest to infrastructure secondary buyers. If a GP can't sell an asset through a traditional process, bringing it to the secondary market as a last resort is a signal to run — not a reason to look harder. • Data center execs have inflated expectations on value. Some data center owners have valued their platforms at 1.3 to 1.4 MOIC, but due diligence done by infrastructure secondaries buyers have revealed valuations more in the 0.8 to 1.0 range. A data center owner will be hard pressed to sell assets at strong multiples without future revenues supported by contracted cash flows. • Distressed secondary deals have been 'some of the worst.' The continuation vehicle market was born out of post-financial-crisis distress, and those early deals — broken assets from broken franchises that secondary capital was supposed to rescue — turned out to be some of the few reliable ways to lose money in a market with a thirty-year history of generating returns. • LPs should not overallocate to digital infrastructure. Infrastructure investing moves in waves — digital was considered fringe before COVID made it the belle of the ball — and the investors who stay diversified across the full asset class are the ones who don't get caught over-indexed to last cycle's darling. Access the full transcript and a searchable library of content at the Liquid Courage Substack: https://liquidcouragepod.substack.com/p/data-center-deals-are-appearing-on #coolvector #infrastructure #datacenter #secondary #privateequity

  7. Jun 9

    GP Transitions: When and How to Install a Replacement Fund Manager

    The private equity market has a zombie-firm problem, and in some cases, chronic misalignment that develops between LPs and GPs can best be remedied by the removal and replacement of the GP team. But how is this complicated and sensitive task accomplished? James O’Donnell of Gibson Dunn, Joncarlo Mark and Eric Green of Upwelling Capital walk through the full lifecycle of a GP transition — from the early warning signs that a firm is in trouble, through the governance mechanics of building LP consensus, to the practical realities of installing a replacement manager. The conversation makes clear that GP removal is not always about bad actors; more often it’s a function of economic misalignment, deteriorated firm-level incentives, or founder dysfunction that leaves perfectly good assets stranded without competent stewardship.  Key takeaways of this fascinating conversation include: • LPs are forming teams for problem funds Because zombie and tail-end fund situations consume a disproportionate amount of time relative to their portfolio weight, a growing number of LPs are standing up dedicated special situations teams to manage these risks professionally rather than absorbing them into the general portfolio function. • Sometimes a good GP should not run a problem investment A GP with a strong track record of sourcing and executing deals is not necessarily the right person to restructure a distressed portfolio — the skill sets are fundamentally different, and conflating them is one of the most common mistakes LPs make when evaluating their options. • Founders ‘falling out’ creates GP replacement need A significant proportion of GP transition situations have nothing to do with investment performance and everything to do with co-founder disputes — when partners are fighting over the money rather than for it, LP capital is at direct risk and the case for intervention becomes urgent. • How LPs can look for GP ‘alarm bells’ The clearest warning signs are a combination of a fund underwater and unlikely to clear its hurdle, a manager with no realistic path to raising a successor fund, and deteriorating reporting quality — individually inconclusive, but together a strong signal that the GP’s incentives have fundamentally shifted away from LP interests. • LPs must proactively get transparency from GPs Rather than waiting until year ten or twelve to act, LPs should establish early rights to communicate with fellow LPs, set proactive information request agendas with their managers, and treat a GP’s failure to answer questions as itself a meaningful data point. • LP vs LP conflicts are common Once LPs begin organizing around a potential GP transition, they frequently discover that the most intractable conflicts are not with the GP but among themselves — driven by differing exposure levels, co-investment stakes, and debt-versus-equity positions that create genuinely incompatible interests within the LP base. • How long does it take to remove a GP? A GP removal can take anywhere from several months to several years, and LPs should scrutinize their LPAs at the time of investment for time-limited removal provisions that could expire before a problem is even fully diagnosed. Access the full transcript and a searchable content library at the Liquid Courage Substack: https://liquidcouragepod.substack.com/p/gp-transitions-when-and-how-to-install #liquidcourage #secondary #secondarymarket #privateequity

  8. May 19

    Why Bridgepoint and Newbury Combined for Middle-Market Secondaries

    What are the benefits of a private equity firm with a history of primary, direct investing combining with a secondaries specialist? Chris Jaroch and Pete Labbat of Bridgepoint count the ways. In a fascinating conversation with Liquid Courage’s Joncarlo Mark and David Snow, Jaroch and Labbat discuss the 2025 merger of Bridgepoint, a $98 billion private marketts asset manager, with Newbury Partners, a veteran secondaries specialist with $4 billion in assets under management. Jaroch and Labbatt argue the combined Bridgepoint-Newbury will create advantages for the secondaries platform as a middle-market investor, as well as advantages for the broader Bridgepoint platform.  “On the GP-led side, we can bring our industry expertise across all the sectors we play in at Bridgepoint to facilitate and, in some cases, increase the knowledge advantage that Newbury has when evaluating a GP-led transaction in healthcare or business services,” Labbat tells Liquid Courage.  Among the takeaways in this episode of Liquid Courage: • The acquisition of Newbury Partners was a natural fit because Newbury had already built its secondaries strategy around middle-market funds and assets — the same territory where Bridgepoint operates in its core business. • GP-led continuation vehicles have become a mainstream tool for extending the life of winning portfolio companies, though a high percentage still fail to close, primarily due to valuation disputes between GPs and their LPs. • Current market conditions — stalled M&A activity, a shut IPO window, and LP cash needs — are driving a surge in secondary transaction volume as investors take portfolio management into their own hands rather than waiting for traditional exits. Access the transcript and a searchable content archive at the Liquid Courage Substack: https://open.substack.com/pub/liquidcouragepod/p/why-bridgepoint-and-newbury-combined?r=6l28kr&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web #privateequity #secondary #middlemarket

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Ratings & Reviews

5
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About

Let's take a deep dive into the private capital secondaries opportunity! Hosted by David Snow in partnership with Upwelling and Piper Sandler. Produced in partnership with leading secondaries advisory firms Upwelling Capital and Piper Sandler, Liquid Courage is led by financial journalist David Snow, the former Editor-in-Chief of PEI Media. Liquid Courage is a video-podcast presenting thought leadership and research on the global private capital secondaries markets.  Liquid Courage delivers market intelligence and strategic insights into the $500 billion private capital secondaries market, where transaction volume has surpassed $160 billion per year. Liquid Courage is produced by market insiders to help investors succeed in this rapidly evolving and growing asset class. Whether you are an institutional investor hoping to up your portfolio management game, a limited partner in need of liquidity, or a general partner seeking cutting-edge liquidity strategies, Liquid Courage delivers what the smartest minds in private capital know about the vast and variegated secondaries opportunity.

Information

  • Creator
    liquidcouragepod
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    17
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Copyright 2025 All rights reserved.
  • Show Website
    Liquid Courage

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