No fireworks at the Fed, but the subtext speaks volumes. We break down why the Committee kept rates unchanged, what the two dovish dissents tell us, and how Powell’s hawkish tone reframed the path for growth, inflation, and any hope for early rate cuts. From the official statement to the press conference, we translate the signals: employment risks down, inflation still elevated, and an economy described as “on a firm footing.” We dig into the moving parts behind the macro narrative. Jobs look softer on the surface, but shifts in immigration and labor force participation point to stabilization rather than a slide. Housing remains the weak link as higher mortgage rates bite, even as broader activity holds up. On tariffs, Powell framed the price impact as a one-time adjustment, not a new inflation engine, implying disinflation can continue once those effects fade. That said, the door to cuts stays shut until the data make the case, and the “meeting-by-meeting” mantra remains the guide. Markets got the message. Yields nudged higher as traders pushed out expectations to one or two cuts later in the year, with equities largely steady. We share why strong first-quarter spending, supported by tax refunds, could keep growth resilient and complicate the disinflation story, raising the odds of occasional inflation scares. Our take: focus on quality balance sheets, resilient cash flows, and rate sensitivity while watching labor, housing, and services inflation for the next catalyst. If this breakdown helps you navigate the noise, follow the show, hit the alert, and share it with someone tracking the Fed. Leave a quick review to tell us where you think rates go next. https://youtu.be/fYOnpVWxF5U Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...
