A geopolitical shock doesn’t stay on the map, it shows up in the data. Today we walk through fresh manufacturing and business activity numbers that hint the war with Iran is starting to ripple into the US economy, especially through supply chain disruptions and rising input costs. If you track markets, inflation, or economic growth, these small releases can be the early signal before bigger indicators catch up. We start with industrial production, which comes in weaker than expected with a 5.5% monthly decline. The detail matters: autos take the biggest hit, a classic sign of parts delays and shipping friction. At the same time, we see strength in computers and electronics and in defense, a reminder that AI spending and strategic demand can stay resilient even when other sectors slow. Utilities move higher too, adding another layer to how uneven this moment is across the economy. Then we dig into the New York Fed Business Activity Index, formerly the Empire State Manufacturing Index. The business climate drops sharply, supply availability falls hard, and the prices paid component jumps to the highest level since 2022, with elevated expectations looking six months out. That combination raises a key question: how much of this supply chain stress turns into sustained inflation pressure, and what does that mean for consumers and future growth? If you found this helpful, subscribe, share the show, and leave a review, what signal are you watching most closely right now? https://youtu.be/WwolsdWQTQc Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...
