Azeem Azhar's Exponential View

Azeem Azhar

4.9 (602)
TECNOLOGÍA

How will the future unfold? What is the impact of AI and other exponential technologies on business & society? Join Azeem Azhar, founder of Exponential View, on his quest to demistify the era of exponential change.

HACE 5 DÍAS

Are we in an AI bubble? (these are the 5 warning signs)

Is AI a bubble? In this episode, I unpack a new five-gauge framework for understanding the biggest question in tech. Drawing on lessons from past manias – railways, telecoms, the dot-com boom – and grounding our analysis in fresh data, we examine economic strain, revenue growth, valuations, and the quality of capital fueling AI’s ascent. This is our effort to cut through hype and fatalism to provide a clear dashboard: where today’s AI build-out looks like a genuine boom, and where early warning signs of bubble dynamics may be emerging. Whether you’re an investor, policymaker, or executive, this framework offers a disciplined way to navigate the noise. Jump to the best parts: (00:29) Echoes of the past (01:31) The 5 gauge framework (01:54) Gauge #1: Investment intensity(03:45) Gauge #2: Monetization level (04:48) Gauge #3: Revenue trajectory (06:23) Gauge #4: Valuation level(07:24) Gauge #5: Quality of capital (10:10) Overall assessmentProduced by EPIIPLUS1 and Supermix. Thanks to my team: Nathan Warren, Hannah Petrovic, Chantal Smith & Marija Gavrilov Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

12 min
HACE 5 DÍAS

Why GPT-5 was never going to impress you

GPT-5 was the most advanced AI when it was released, but most people were disappointed. Why? In this episode, I unpack the two key paradoxes that shape how we judge new technology: shifting goalposts and negative space. Timestamps: (0:00) The reaction to GPT-5 (0:40) First paradox (2:55) Second paradox (5:29) Why this matters Dig deeper: https://www.exponentialview.co/p/the-paradox-of-gpt-5 Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd, including Chantal Smith, Marija Gavrilov, Nathan Warren and Hannah Petrovic. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

7 min
10 SEP

My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

Can AI stocks beat Big Tech? In this episode, I discuss OpenAI and its decision to expand a secondary share sale that lets insiders sell about $10.3 billion of stock at roughly a $500 billion valuation. Although skeptical at first, the calculations reveal there is a path for OpenAI to deliver outsized returns. I cover: (0:00) The $500B question (01:11) Why the Nasdaq Index is the benchmark (03:35) Inside the OpenAI-Microsoft deal (05:50) The bull case: OpenAI’s trillion-dollar path (09:33) The AI market explosion (12:39) The bear case: Competition and constraints (17:13) Exploring the models of tomorrow (20:58) The disruption premium (23:21) Where will OpenAI’s revenue come from? (29:14) The final verdict Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

30 min
5 SEP

AI is eating into entry-level jobs

This is the single most important paper to come out in tech in recent weeks. Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen investigated whether generative AI is leading to job losses in roles most exposed to AI – and how these effects differ by age and the way AI is used. In this episode, I break down these results and their implications. I covered: (01:17) Key finding (03:32) What’s going on here? (06:13) A canary in the coal mine? (8:21) The dataset studied and why it matters (10:34) The sectors impacted and why it matters (12:37) Why don't firms just reduce salaries? (14:34) Historical parallels with electricity (17:20) How leadership impacts job losses (20:46) Implications for policy, education, equity (24:53) Outro Where to find me: - Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/ - Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ - LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar?originalSubdomain=uk - Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem ---- Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1

26 min
24 JUL

AI & the future of media with The Atlantic CEO, Nicholas Thompson

Nick Thompson, CEO of The Atlantic, led one of the first major content licensing deals with OpenAI in 2024. In this conversation, he joins Azeem to unpack how AI is transforming media – and what that means for every business navigating the shifting economics of attention, trust, and discovery. We cover: (01:49) Journalism’s four horsemen (5:33) The collapse of search (9:07) Cloudflare’s counterattack (13:56) Is this the search-traffic fix? (17:42) Rise of the sovereign creator (22:57) Do great writers need editors? (26:22) Why conservatives win new media (27:17) How Substack drives discovery (31:08) East Coast vs. West Coast ethics (35:11) How Nick uses AI in writing (42:13) Is AI friend or foe to journalism? (45:32) The Atlantic’s survival plan Nick's links: The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholasxthompson/ Twitter/X: https://x.com/nxthompson Substack: https://nxthompson.substack.com Azeem's links: Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem ---- Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd

52 min
9 JUL

2025 AI reality check: Are we in a bubble?

At the start of the year, I made seven predictions about how 2025 would unfold. Six months in, it's time to mark my own work. From AI capability breakthroughs to autonomous vehicles, climate extremes to workforce transformation, I examine what I got right, what I missed, and why the 2027-2028 period will be when vertical AI hits the real economy in force. In this episode you’ll hear: The AI wall that never came: Ten-million-token models exist, O3 scores 25% on Frontier Math vs GPT-4's 2%, but some models are inconsistent and overthink problemsWhen bots officially out-talk humans: My modeling shows LLMs crossed the threshold of producing more text than humans sometime this summerThe Waymo vs Uber SF battle: They've beaten Lyft and expanded to New York, but Tesla's Austin robo-taxi fleet changes the competitive landscapeClimate and energy predictions that were "too easy": Record climate extremes, 30% solar growth, and Indonesia's stunning EV jump from 20% to 80% in two yearsWhat I completely missed: The AI capex boom, humanoid robots at Figure/BMW/Amazon, and workforce impact with CEOs reporting 20-50% AI assistanceWhy getting too many predictions right is a problem: I reflect on whether scoring too well means I didn't push boundaries enough in my forecastingThe 2027-2028 turbulence ahead: Why four-year-old AI startups challenging incumbents while early adopters reap deep organizational benefits will create economic turbulenceOur new show This was originally recorded for “Friday with Azeem Azhar”, a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through my Substack linked below. The format is experimental and we’d love your feedback, so feel free to comment or email your thoughts to our team at live@exponentialview.co. Azeem’s links: Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar?originalSubdomain=ukTwitter/X: https://x.com/azeemTimestamps: (00:00) Grading my predictions from January 2025 (01:23) #1: No AI Wall (03:59) #2: Warp-speed deployment (05:16) #3: Bots out-talk humans (06:24) #4: Waymo overtakes Uber in SF (08:31) #5: Climate extremes intensify (09:09) #6: Solar keeps breaking records (10:06) #7: EVs shift up a gear (11:12) The problem with predicting too accurately (12:01) What I missed (12:14) The CapEx boom around AI (13:56) The rise of humanoid robots (14:36) AI's impact on the workforce (18:40) Looking ahead (18:48) Infrastructure first, apps next (19:52) 2027/2028 will be a "period of fireworks" (21:39) When we'll find out if AI is a bubble (23:02) A question for the future Production: Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

24 min
2 JUL

What 72hrs in China taught me about the future (AI, EVs, more)

In this episode, I reflect on a whirlwind three-day visit to China - my first in over 20 years. And what I saw was remarkable. The infrastructure puts most of the West to shame. The AI isn't just hype - it's working at serious scale. And the electric vehicles? They're about to steamroll the global auto industry. Here's what really struck me during my whirlwind trip to Beijing and beyond. In this episode you'll hear: Infrastructure built at speed: Beijing's immaculate airport, 300 km/h rail to Tianjin for £17, and pristine expressways that put US infrastructure to shame.Verticalised AI in action: While Chinese labs trail US frontier models and face compute constraints, they're excelling in verticals - profitable robotaxis in Wuhan, healthcare AI analyzing 5.5 billion medical records, and Squirrel AI's $200m education platform that outperforms China's best human teachers.EV cost leadership is set: Chinese electric vehicles are absolutely remarkable. Years of vicious domestic competition have created incredible innovation and cost discipline that will hit European carmakers like a sledgehammer.The air quality transformation: Beijing at 37°C was clean enough for a morning run, thanks to widespread EV adoption.Scale that defies comprehension: Convention centers 100 times the size of Union Square, cities of 20 million people, and AI platforms serving tens of millions of users.Our new show This was originally recorded for “Friday with Azeem Azhar”, a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through my Substack linked below. The format is experimental and we’d love your feedback, so feel free to comment or email your thoughts to our team at live@exponentialview.co. Azeem’s links: Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar?originalSubdomain=ukTwitter/X: https://x.com/azeemTimestamps: (00:00) Surprises at the airport (01:21) Immense scale (01:54) 3 areas of interest (02:37) Chinese infrastructure and engineering (03:22) ~180mph train, £17 fare (04:29) Multi-lane expressways built for scale (05:55) Development of AI in china (06:09) China leans into vertical AI (08:12) Apollo robotaxis: unit-cost positive (09:33) Yidu Tech: 5.5B health records (10:35) Squirrel AI outperforms top teachers (14:29) EVs & clean air (16:14) BYD x Octopus: earn by charging (18:30) EV boom improves Beijing air (19:56) Luxury Chinese EV interior (21:08) Closing thoughts Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

22 min
18 JUN

The problem with Altman’s “gentle singularity,” Apple’s AI missteps, and Google’s fading ad model | Live with Azeem Azhar

Broadcasting live from Paris, I tackle three massive technology stories that are reshaping our digital future. From Apple's stunning interface redesign to the collapse of traditional search advertising, and Sam Altman's vision of an AI singularity that's already begun - this episode captures the tectonic shifts happening in tech right now. I cover: (1:32) WWDC 2025: Apple’s AI challenges and new UI (6:06) The decline of Google’s ad model (10:08) Sam Altman’s Gentle Singularity essay (19:37) Live audience Q&A (19:45) Is the singularity really about Altman? (22:13) Is France carrying Europe’s AI dreams? (24:58) Are you seeing promising AI hardware? (27:42) How will AI change software pricing? Our new show This was originally recorded for “Friday with Azeem Azhar”, a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through my Substack linked below. The format is experimental and we’d love your feedback, so feel free to comment or email your thoughts to our team at live@exponentialview.co. Azeem’s links: Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar?originalSubdomain=ukTwitter/X: https://x.com/azeemProduction by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

30 min

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Azeem Azhar

Presentador(a)

4.9

de 5

602 calificaciones

Very Interesting Tech Discussions!

2 may

Cnaloha

Appreciate the global perspective.
Great forward thinking listen

04/11/2022

MacManiacATL

After listening to several podcasts by this author I really enjoy the futuristic forward thinking of the guests. We are learning a lot of information about the future and the exponential advance of information and how it affects us all.
The Future of Meat.

13/09/2023

Smegma53

This episode was recommended by NY Times. I was very interested, but the guest barely speaks English. I attempted to concentrate but his accent is incomprehensible. Maybe his interview should be read by A.I ?
Absolutely mind-blowing 💥

17/03/2022

LisaIsHereForIt

Azeem is brilliant and an incredible interviewer. No matter the topic, you’re guaranteed to gain something from every episode - can’t recommend Exponential View enough. 🙌

How will the future unfold? What is the impact of AI and other exponential technologies on business & society? Join Azeem Azhar, founder of Exponential View, on his quest to demistify the era of exponential change.