Pitch The PM

PitchThePM
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Pitch The PM is the professional investor’s podcast where host Doug Garber dives deep into high-conviction stock ideas using his Variant View Investment Checklist. It’s a real-time look at the research process, blending lessons from Buffett, Munger, and Lynch with modern AI tools. Join Doug, ex-Citadel top analyst and Millennium Sr PM, as he works through his Buffett-inspired 20-slot punch card. Learn, laugh, and sharpen your edge.

  1. 1D AGO

    EP033 - Cerebras (CBRS): Thematic Winner in AI Compute Shortage with SemiAnalysis’ President

    In this episode of Pitch The PM, Doug Garber speaks with Doug O’Laughlin, President of SemiAnalysis, about the explosive demand for AI infrastructure and the market reaction to Cerebras’ IPO. Doug O breaks down Cerebras’ wafer-scale chip architecture, its advantages in ultra-fast inference, and the limitations caused by memory scaling constraints. The discussion examines how NVIDIA continues to dominate large-scale AI workloads while specialized alternatives carve out niche roles in the broader compute ecosystem. They also explore the rise of agentic AI workflows, the growing economics of tokens and inference demand, and why frontier AI models are reshaping software development, legal work, and enterprise productivity. Doug O shares insights into how SemiAnalysis is using AI internally, why compute demand continues accelerating, and what the next wave of AI IPOs could mean for investors and the semiconductor industry. Tickers: #CBRS, #NVDA, #CRWV _____________________________________________________________ [00:00:00] Doug O’Laughlin compares Cerebras’ inference speed advantage to an F1 car versus NVIDIA as a bus. [00:00:20] Discussion of agentic AI workflows driving a major increase in compute demand. [00:00:31] Introduction to the episode and the focus on Cerebras’ technology and IPO. [00:01:36] Why Cerebras’ niche technology emerged during a historic compute shortage. [00:02:47] Breakdown of Cerebras’ SRAM-based architecture and the original technology bet. [00:03:55] Explanation of SRAM scaling limitations and memory density constraints. [00:05:26] Whether Cerebras can evolve beyond its current inference niche. [00:05:53] Emerging trends in disaggregated inference and hybrid AI architectures. [00:08:46] Why Cerebras can outperform NVIDIA in specific low-latency inference use cases. [00:09:10] The tradeoff between single-user speed and large-scale throughput. [00:13:18] Discussion of small language models versus frontier AI models. [00:13:45] Why Doug believes best-of-breed AI models continue to win in the market. [00:17:18] Legal industry productivity gains and concerns around shared AI training data. [00:18:07] How AI dramatically lowers the cost of accessing professional expertise. [00:19:11] Sponsor discussion and transition into Cerebras’ stock performance. [00:21:01] Doug’s perspective on the broader AI IPO environment and investor demand. [00:24:59] Supply and demand dynamics for AI-related equities and semiconductor exposure. [00:25:54] Comparison between equity enthusiasm and private credit caution in AI infrastructure. [00:26:58] Why GPU pricing increases indicate overwhelming AI compute demand. [00:28:30] Agentic AI workflows and cloud coding as the major inflection point for compute usage. [00:28:38] SemiAnalysis spending over $10,000 per week on APIs to accelerate productivity. [00:29:56] How AI tools are changing hiring needs and software engineering capabilities. [00:30:18] Examples of collapsing information work timelines through AI automation. [00:31:39] Disclosure discussion and SemiAnalysis’ relationships with leading AI companies. [00:32:09] Doug O explains SemiAnalysis’ approach to independent research and updating priors. [00:33:07] Doug O’Laughlin shares his background working on the buy side at Blue Capital. [00:34:10] Future plans for SemiAnalysis and the rise of “tokenomics” research. Links: Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508  Doug O’Laughlin on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dougolaughlin/  💡 This episode is powered by the Oxford Data Plan. Use the link here for Complimentary access  📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe

    36 min

  2. MAY 14

    EP:32: CBRS: AI’s New Leader? With the Pre-IPO Champ

    In this episode of Pitch The PM, Doug Garber speaks with Chris Murphy about his pre-IPO investment strategy and why $CBRS is his largest investment. Chris previously spent 17 years scaling a multi billion fund and is now focused on his pre-IPO PA (personal account) investment strategy. Chris has dug-in deep, hitting the road and reading heaps of expert call transcripts from Alpha Sense and Third Bridge. He believes inference speed will become one of the most valuable advantages in the race to AGI (artificial general intelligence). The conversation examines the advantages of Cerebras’ wafer-scale chip design, the growing importance of fast inference for agentic AI workflows and the price/cost trade-off. OpenAI was the first mover, securing initial capacity and options. AWS has a term sheet for capacity. The chip market is evolving and Doug & Chris debate the implications for NVIDIA, Google and Amazon. Tickers: $CBRS, $NVDA, $GOOG, $AMZN, $META [00:00:00] Chris Murphy explains why AI inference speed will become a key competitive advantage.[00:00:20] Doug Garber introduces Chris Murphy and discusses Cerebras’ IPO and price discovery.[00:00:57] Chris Murphy shares his background in public and private market investing.[00:03:44] Chris outlines his framework for evaluating pre-IPO investments.[00:04:31] Why Chris believed inference would become the AI “money maker.”[00:05:08] Chris explains how Cerebras removes bottlenecks in agentic AI workflows.[00:06:07] Discussion on token economics, inference speed, and use case advantages.[00:08:28] Cerebras’ position in fast inference versus Groq and NVIDIA.[00:09:30] Breakdown of Cerebras’ wafer-scale chip design and routing fabric.[00:11:48] Chris discusses the research behind his Cerebras investment thesis.[00:12:35] Expert network transcripts, proprietary calls, and diligence methods.[00:13:14] Chris walks through his revenue framework for OpenAI, AWS, and others.[00:15:12] Discussion on customer concentration risk and OpenAI exposure.[00:15:53] Why Amazon could benefit from combining Trainium with Cerebras chips.[00:17:15] Competitive positioning versus Google TPUs and NVIDIA GPUs.[00:18:39] Why inference is expected to outgrow training workloads.[00:20:33] Chris explains his OpenAI revenue assumptions through 2033.[00:23:48] How AWS and Anthropic fit into the broader Cerebras opportunity.[00:26:24] Chris discusses Cerebras as an “arms dealer” in the AGI race.[00:29:49] Feedback from engineers and users testing Cerebras chips.[00:32:59] How AI systems route workloads across chips and inference models.[00:34:54] Chris explains assumptions around Cerebras’ AWS inference share.[00:36:35] Discussion on pricing, leasing models, and AWS exclusivity.[00:39:49] Breakdown of G42, MBZUAI, and other customer relationships.[00:42:55] Chris explains why the long-term revenue opportunity makes investors uncomfortable.[00:45:38] Discussion on customer warrants and partnerships with OpenAI and AWS.[00:49:25] Speculation around potential relationships with Meta and Google.[00:50:16] Gross margin expectations, scalability, and long-term profitability.[00:52:43] Doug Garber summarizes execution risks and the AI infrastructure landscape.[00:55:19] Chris shares his long-term outlook on Cerebras and position sizing.[00:59:16] Final thoughts on AI enthusiasm, IPO risks, and investing discipline. Links: Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 Chris Murphy on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrismurphyhq Powered by AlphaSense. Complimentary access — https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/ Complimentary pre-built CBRS excel model — https://istari.insyncanalytics.com/pitchthepm/?model=IPO&template=CBRS Subscribe to our newsletter: https://pitchthepm.beehiiv.com/subscribe This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Full disclosure: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer

    1 hr

  3. MAY 9

    EP:31 Getting into T. Rowe Price - The Right Investment Process (Part 1)

    In this episode of Pitch The PM, Doug Garber sits down with Priyal Maniar, Global Energy Investor at T. Rowe Price | Investment Analyst and Portfolio Manager of Natural Resources ETF (TURF) to discuss the path that led her to one of the most coveted firms on the street. Priyal walks through her journey from BlackRock to T.Rowe, how an early passion for equity research and mentorship shaped her investing lens. She talks about T. Rowe's collaboratiove Analyst & PM invstment culture and what it actually takes to stand out at one of the top  investmet houses in the world. This episode is all about Priyal's journey and investment process — how great stock pickers develop repeatable frameworks, build trust with colleagues and turn research into real capital allocation. Stay tuned for Part 2 — where we dive deep into the energy cycle and TURF’s big Oil Sands bet…  What you'll learn: How Priyal built her foundation through value-focused investingInside T. Rowe’s intense interview process (30+ interviews, stock pitches)The traits that matter: curiosity, deep work, and flexible convictionHow the $100B+ analyst-run fund works in practiceHow analysts build a track record before managing capitalHow ideas actually spread across a multi-trillion platformWhy collaboration starts before the pitchThe importance of field research and PM alignmentHow to build mindshare in under-owned sectors like energyWhy process > being right onceTimestamps 00:00 – Intro 01:00 – Priyal’s Background: India → Early Market Exposure 02:00 – Breaking In: BlackRock → Brandywine & Value Investing Roots 03:15 – Reaching Back Out to T. Rowe Price & Interview Process 04:30 – What T. Rowe Looks For: Curiosity, Deep Research, Fit 05:30 – Role Today: Coverage & Analyst Responsibilities 06:30 – Inside the $100B+ Analyst-Run Research Fund 07:30 – TURF ETF & Expanding Access 08:15 – How Ideas Get Shared Across the Platform 09:15 – Reports, Meetings & “Walking the Floor” Culture 10:15 – PM Pushback & Real-Time Collaboration 11:15 – Field Research & Building Buy-In Early 12:15 – Gaining Mindshare as an Energy Analyst 13:15 – Process > Calls: Building Trust Over Time Subscribe to the Pitch the PM newsletter to get the deeper investment framework, key metrics investors should track, and Doug’s structured checklist for evaluating the idea. https://pitchthepm.substack.com/ Presented by AlphaSense Free trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/ Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE2OJwfhY2MZqGG5Y Listen on Apple Podcasts:  https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pitch-the-pm/id1797669466 This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer

    16 min

  4. MAY 1

    EP030: Remove Macro From Your Stocks

    In this episode, Doug Garber joins The Investment Memo to break down how hedge fund investors navigate macro volatility, manage risk inside low vol pod structures and stay focused on generating alpha.Doug shares how portfolio managers think during “risk-off” environments, why macro should not be your core thesis, and how strategies evolve inside multi-manager platforms.The conversation also dives into how he managed a portfolio as a PM, short selling dynamics, and the structural realities of hedge fund risk frameworks.🔑 TakeawaysRisk management over conviction during macro volatilityMacro matters—but shouldn’t be the core part of your thesisHigh short interest stocks work over time—but can be painful during unwindsThe best portfolios aim to neutralize what they can’t predict⏱️ Chapters[00:00] Intro[01:05] Career Path to Hedge Fund PM[04:39] Navigating Macro Regime Shifts[06:05] Pod Shop Dynamics & Talent Retention[07:01] Hedge Fund SMAs[07:15] Fundamental L/S Investing[12:33] War, Oil & Macro Uncertainty[15:00] Energy Outlook & Implications[18:52] Hedging & Risk Management📩 Subscribe to the Pitch the PM newsletter to get the deeper investment framework, key metrics investors should track, and Doug’s structured checklist for evaluating the idea.https://pitchthepm.substack.com/💡 Presented by AlphaSenseFree trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimerThis episode originally appeared on The Investment Memo and is redistributed with permission.

    14 min

  5. APR 28

    EP029: War & Markets | How a Former Sr. Millennium PM invests in Equities

    Ep. 29: War & Markets | How a Former Sr. Millennium PM Invests in Equities In this episode, Doug joins Hyun Hong of The Investment Memo to break down how a buy-side investor is navigating today’s market backdrop. Doug shares how he thinks about building a variant view, managing risk in uncertain macro environments, and what’s actually driving the current conversation around oil, war, and recession risk. The conversation also dives into the evolving hedge fund landscape — from pod shop fatigue and talent migration to how analysts and PMs are adapting their process in a world increasingly dominated by macro volatility. Chapters: [00:00] Intro [01:05] Career Path to a Hedge Fund PM [04:39] What is your Variant View [06:05] Pod shop Exhaustion? Talent retention & exodus [07:01] Hedge Fund SMAs [07:15] Fundamental Equities L/S Analyst [12:33] War & Oil & Recession [15:00] oil here for higher & longer? what then? [18:52] So how do you hedge? To be continued in Part 2… 📩 Subscribe to the Pitch the PM newsletter to get the deeper investment framework, key metrics investors should track, and Doug’s structured checklist for evaluating the idea. https://pitchthepm.substack.com/ 💡 Presented by AlphaSense Free trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/ This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer This episode originally appeared on The Investment Memo and is redistributed with permission.

    20 min

  6. MAR 30

    EP028: Teamshares: The Next Programmatic Acquirer

    Teamshares: The Next Programmatic Acquirer. Coming Soon: $LOKV → $TMS Doug Garber chats with Michael Brown (Teamshares, TMS) and Rick Hendrix (Live Oak, LOKV) about taking a programmatic acquirer of small businesses public via a DSPAC — the sourcing tech, capital plan, and why this opens a new asset class for investors. 🚀 In this episode: How Teamshares buys retirement-sale SMEs, systemizes sourcing (70k leads → 1% close) and runs them as audited subsidiaries. 🧩 The advantages of being public include a lower cost of capital and the ability to leverage the infrastructure the team has built to acquire and run SME’s efficiently.  The large runway to continue to acquire companies at around 15-20% ROE’s. The company could be FCF positive in the near future and be self-funding.  T. Rowe Price has already anchored the PIPE. Subscribe to the Pitch The PM newsletter for weekly market insights, episode follow-ups, and our job board!https://pitchthepm.substack.com/ 🎧 Listen on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. 💡 Presented by AlphaSense: Free trial access💡Model tools by InSyncAnalytics: The complete buy-side model productivity suit This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://PitchThePM.com Listen on Spotify • Subscribe for new episodes 🎧 Disclaimer: Educational only — not investment advice.

    1h 6m

  7. MAR 29

    EP 027: Compounder Guru Sean Emory on why Block, $XYZ, is Far From Done

    In this episode of Pitch The PM, Doug Garber sits down with Sean Emory, founder of Avory & Co., an investment firm focused on high-conviction, fundamentals-driven investing. Sean recently launched the Avory ETF ($AVRY), bringing his firm’s research-driven stock-picking approach to public investors.Sean outlines his “6 M” investment process that has allowed him to compound at nearly 20% for the last decade with low turnover for FO’s, UHNW, and RIA’s.Doug and Sean discuss why XYZ is one his largest weightings. • Cash App growth and monetization trends• Square’s re-acceleration in merchant volumes• The reality behind the software job cuts, the impact of AI vs over hiring• The role of credit products like Cash App Borrow• Competitive dynamics in fintech and digital payments• Risks, including macro conditions and credit cycles📩 Want to know if Doug bought the pitch?Subscribe to the Pitch the PM newsletter to get the deeper investment framework, key metrics investors should track, and Doug’s structured checklist for evaluating the idea.https://pitchthepm.substack.com/A special thank you to our sponsors Carbon Arc (carbonarc.co) and InSync Analytics Corp. (istari.insyncanalytics.com)🎧 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE2OJwfhY2MZqGG5Y?si=cb521c1e758246a1Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pitch-the-pm/id1797669466💡 Presented by AlphaSenseFree trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer

    35 min

  8. MAR 26

    EP026: ($HSY) Hershey’s Sweet Comeback: Historic Cocoa Reversion to Boost Margins

    $HSY: Historic Price/Cost Tailwinds as Historic Cocoa Price Spike Reverses 🍫📈Pitch The PM sat down with Mark Rogers (SIGMIT Advisors / Heddy Creek Research) to break down what may be one of the cleanest price-cost setups in consumer staples right now: Hershey ($HSY).After a brutal cocoa inflation cycle crushed margins, cocoa prices are now reversing sharply. The Street has started revising numbers higher — and Mark believes the magnitude of the earnings reset is still under appreciated.📊 The Variant View Cocoa deflation is flowing into gross margins over time.Pricing increases are sticky giving favorable price/cost.EPS revisions are the key, we think the trend is your friend as cocoa deflation rolls through the PnL.Mark believes $9–$9.50 next year is achievable — and may not be peak.If $HSY earns ~$9–$9.50 and staples trade high-20s multiples, fair value could approach $270–$285 per Rogers.💰 Valuation MathVariant View:Margins could overshoot historical averages as they recover leading to positive revisions. A special thank you to our sponsors Carbon Arc (carbonarc.co) and InSync Analytics Corp. (istari.insyncanalytics.com)Disclosure: Doug still owns $RMCF. Mark sold $HSY after the strong quarter.*Not investment advice. 🎧 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE...Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...💡 Presented by AlphaSenseFree trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer

    23 min
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Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
8 Ratings

About

Pitch The PM is the professional investor’s podcast where host Doug Garber dives deep into high-conviction stock ideas using his Variant View Investment Checklist. It’s a real-time look at the research process, blending lessons from Buffett, Munger, and Lynch with modern AI tools. Join Doug, ex-Citadel top analyst and Millennium Sr PM, as he works through his Buffett-inspired 20-slot punch card. Learn, laugh, and sharpen your edge.

Information

  • Creator
    PitchThePM
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    32
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © PitchThePM
  • Show Website
    Pitch The PM

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