The Moneyball Real Estate Show

Kevin Clayson, Steve Earl

This is where real estate meets real results. Each week, Kevin Clayson and Steve Earl, founders of DFY Real Estate, reveal how everyday Americans are quietly building retirement wealth by playing real-life Moneyball with real estate. This isn’t some “swing for the fences” gamble—this is a conservative, proven approach built on hitting real estate singles over and over again. Learn more and get your free Real Estate Game Plan at https://dfy-realestate.com

  1. JAN 27

    POWERFUL: Investor-Specific Financing Options

    Why they call it “Investor-Specific Financing” DSCR is the official name, but the framing matters.Conventional loans are still great (30-year fixed, strong rates) but:More hoopsMore documentationMore frictionHarder for business owners / complex income situationsWhat a DSCR loan is (and how it works) Debt Service Coverage Ratio underwriting focuses on the property’s ability to cover its own debt.Core concept:If rent covers (or nearly covers) the payment, it can qualify.Kevin gives a simple example:Rent $2,000 vs payment $1,800 → qualifiesEven near 1:1 can qualify depending on lender guidelines.Why this is a big win for business owners (and “interesting financials”) Many clients have complicated tax returns and multiple income streams.Conventional underwriting can feel burdensome—even demeaning—because of how intensely it scrutinizes personal finances.DSCR simplifies the borrower experience because it’s not about W-2 income and DTI.LLC ownership + personal guarantee (the “clean structure” part) A major feature: buy in the name of an LLC (no post-close quitclaim dance).Still typically personally guaranteed.Kevin’s line worth clipping:“You’re the personal guarantor, but a personal guarantee doesn’t mean personal liability is unlimited.”Avoiding the conventional 10-loan limit Conventional financing has the well-known 10-financed-property ceiling (often managed by splitting between spouses).DSCR loans:Don’t take one of those “10 slots”Can allow investors to scale further (20–30 properties possible, with increasing qualification standards as portfolios grow)Rates, fees, and prepayment penalties (January 2026 reality) Historically DSCR carried higher rates/fees.But in the current market (January 2026), they note:DSCR rates can be similar to conventionalCommon caveat:DSCR loans often have a prepayment penaltyNot a big deal for long-term holders (they’re not planning to exit in 2 years).Will it show up on personal credit? Steve explains:With some lenders, yes; with others, no.Strategic Lending knows how to route borrowers based on that preference.On default and credit impact:Steve’s understanding: typically it would not report like a standard personal mortgage—because the loan is made to the LLC secured by the property—though consequences still exist.What you need to qualify (simple but not “wild west”) Kevin emphasizes: this is not 2006-style “stated income” chaos.Typical DSCR pre-approval items discussed:Credit application + credit pullProof of assets / bank statementsExisting mortgage statements for financed propertiesReserves: at least 6 months PITI beyond purchase/closing fundsThe “new era” Moneyball stance: more conservative by design Their direction going forward:Push toward 30% down DSCR strategy more oftenAim for a better ownership experience (less outside cash needed for property “messiness”)Key philosophical point:This isn’t about maximizing leverage; it’s about maximizing staying power.Closing CTAKevin invites listeners to reach out with questions and book a call:dfy-realestate.com (Book Call button)kevin@dfy-realestate.com Subscribe to the Weekly Newsletter:Get weekly deals, market updates, blog posts, and more delivered straight to your inbox.👉 Join the list here   Ready to Build Your Game Plan?Book a call with Kevin and see what your personalized real estate roadmap could look like.👉 dfy-realestate.com   Connect With Us:Email Kevin directly: kevin@dfy-realestate.com Learn more about DFY’s done-for-you investing approach at dfy-realestate.com

    35 min
  2. JAN 20

    RESET: The Great Housing Reset of 2026

    Why Episode 138 marks the return to live podcast conversations in 2026Revisiting Micro-Wins to Millions with fresh investor perspectiveRedfin’s “Great Housing Reset” and what it really means (no hype)Mortgage rates dipping into the low 6% range—and why psychology matters more than mathThe hidden cost of sitting on the sidelines during high-rate yearsDFY transaction volume from 2022–2025 and what the slowdown signalsHow investor action during uncertainty led to appreciation, cash flow, and refi opportunitiesWhy affordability is improving without a major price dropPent-up housing demand and the herd mentality effectWhy rents declined—and why they’re poised to rise againPolitical pressure around affordability and why it benefits long-term ownersThe pendulum theory: fear, greed, and slow-moving real estate cyclesWhy early 2026 may be one of the best entry points before momentum buildsHow to access Micro-Wins to Millions (audio, digital, and video book)Where to find DFY’s 12 years of transparent transaction reportsWhy now is the time to review your game plan—not wait for headlines Subscribe to the Weekly Newsletter:Get weekly deals, market updates, blog posts, and more delivered straight to your inbox.👉 Join the list here   Ready to Build Your Game Plan?Book a call with Kevin and see what your personalized real estate roadmap could look like.👉 dfy-realestate.com   Connect With Us:Email Kevin directly: kevin@dfy-realestate.com Learn more about DFY’s done-for-you investing approach at dfy-realestate.com

    43 min
  3. JAN 13

    POWER: The Power of One - Ch. 12

    Core theme: The power of one choice can reverberate through generations. 1) Making Ripples 4 a.m., early flight, tired and irritable.Kevin judges a woman based on her appearance.She quietly pays for his items anyway.Lesson: small kindness can create massive impact.The ripple effect multiplies every time the story is shared.2) Who are your heroes? We default to celebrities… but they rarely change our personal lives.Real heroes are often people close to us:parents, mentors, teachers, neighbors, friendsEight-year-old girl calls her dad her hero:he picked her up, cleaned her scraped knee, cared for herBig idea: heroism is usually ordinary faithfulness.3) Principle-based Capitalism A defense of capitalism rooted in:honesty, integrity, hard work, frugality, giving backCritique: “profit first no matter what” is a distortion of true capitalism.DFY grew faster when the focus shifted:from tracking numbers → to tracking people’s progressfrom transactions → to leaving people better offPrinciple-driven companies outlast founders; profit-only organizations crumble.4) The Power of One Property One rental purchase impacts many:mortgage team, agents, title, property manager, tenant, seller, youAnd you can benefit most over time through:cash flow, appreciation, tax benefits, principal paydownCompounding concept:one can lead to two, two can lead to four, etc.5) Proof Through Repetition Eric buys first property: January 2012Adds multiple properties that same yearBy 2019: nine propertiesOutcome: retired, traveling, living life on his terms while DFY handled the heavy lifting6) Micro-Win Challenge to End The Book Don’t overcomplicate the first step:10-minute workout5 minutes with your kidswrite one sentencedrink one extra glass of watersay a 30-second prayergather loose change and deposit itFinal reminder: you are one decision away. Subscribe to the Weekly Newsletter:Get weekly deals, market updates, blog posts, and more delivered straight to your inbox.👉 Join the list here   Ready to Build Your Game Plan?Book a call with Kevin and see what your personalized real estate roadmap could look like.👉 dfy-realestate.com   Connect With Us:Email Kevin directly: kevin@dfy-realestate.com Learn more about DFY’s done-for-you investing approach at dfy-realestate.com

    25 min
  4. 12/30/2025

    ACTION: Do It Now - Ch. 10

    The perfect time to act—especially in real estate—is not someday, not when things feel safer, and not when the headlines calm down. The perfect time is now. Key Concepts Covered:The Power of the Present MomentYou can’t change the past.You can’t control the future.The only leverage point you have is today.A Life-Changing Wake-Up CallA tragic, personal story that reshaped the meaning of urgency, presence, and purpose.A reminder that time is not promised—and delaying what matters most comes at a real cost.The Three Degrees of ActionInaction – Choosing comfort, avoidance, or procrastination (often rooted in fear).Active Action – Lots of movement, preparation, and effort… but no meaningful results.Productive Action – Focused, uncomfortable, results-driven behavior that actually creates change.Why Active Action Can Be More Dangerous Than InactionIt creates the illusion of progress.When results don’t show up, people conclude: “Action doesn’t work.”The “Do It Now” PhilosophyInspired by W. Clement Stone, who built a billion-dollar empire one micro-win at a time.Small, immediate actions compound into massive results.The Real Estate ApplicationThe best time to buy real estate was 20 years ago.The second-best time is always today.Market cycles change—principles don’t.Market Myths, Fear, and NoiseWhy advice from people with “teeny tiny pockets” should be filtered carefully.Media fear vs. investor fundamentals.The danger of waiting for perfect conditions.Moneyball Proof Across Every Market2008 crashPost-recession recoveryCOVID uncertaintyPost-pandemic normalizationIn every cycle, principled investors who acted won.Takeaway:If you’re waiting to feel ready, comfortable, or certain—you’ll be waiting forever. Progress begins when preparation turns into productive action. Subscribe to the Weekly Newsletter:Get weekly deals, market updates, blog posts, and more delivered straight to your inbox.👉 Join the list here   Ready to Build Your Game Plan?Book a call with Kevin and see what your personalized real estate roadmap could look like.👉 dfy-realestate.com   Connect With Us:Email Kevin directly: kevin@dfy-realestate.com Learn more about DFY’s done-for-you investing approach at dfy-realestate.com

    46 min
  5. 12/09/2025

    MAGIC: Success is Magically Formulaic - Ch. 8

    Kevin opens with a story about a magician using a penny, a toilet paper cannon, and a leaf blower to create an “impossible” trick.How the trick actually worked: palming the coin, using the toilet seat and TP storm as cover, and revealing the penny with initials “magically” on his tongue.Parallel to real estate: what looks like magic from the outside is actually hours of practice, failed attempts, and a precise formula executed consistently.Steve connects the idea to spiritual habits: showing up at church, praying, and keeping commitments—over half of success is simply showing up and honoring your commitments.How Kevin and Steve reverse-engineered their own wins and failures into the Moneyball Real Estate system and principles.Why single-family rentals (SFRs) are surprisingly liquid when bought in the right markets, at the right prices, with the right structure.Ways to access liquidity from SFRs:Selling into a large buyer poolRefinancingUsing a HELOCCash flow over timeIntroduction of the “magic number”:Input = total out-of-pocket investmentOutput = total profit on sale after 10 years (the magic number)Then converting that magic number into average annual ROI.Key expense-side numbers in the Moneyball analysis:Purchase priceLoan amountMonthly PITI (principal, interest, taxes, insurance)Property management feesVacancies and repairsKey income-side and growth numbers:Estimated monthly rent (data-driven from in-market managers)Rent growth assumptions (around ~3% annually)Multiple appreciation assumptions (3.5%, 5%, and “what if it’s higher?”)The Average Monthly Increase (AMI) as a favorite metric: turning a 10-year profit into a monthly “magic” benefit.Breaking down:Monthly cash flowMonthly principal reduction (tenants paying down your loan)Monthly depreciation/tax savingsCombined into Monthly Combined Cash Increase.Why cap rate is included but not central to Moneyball-style decision making.The difference between:Cash-on-cash return (just cash flow)Combined cash-on-cash return (cash flow + principal paydown + tax savings).General rule-of-thumb targets for a purchase-worthy Moneyball property:Combined cash-on-cash return in the high single digitsAMI over $700/monthAnnualized total return over 13%Total profit on sale over $100,000 after 10 years.Understanding P&L vs real performance:Why properties can show a loss on paper but still produce strong positive cash flow.The role of depreciation and amortized costs in creating tax losses.How DFY uses a hybrid statement to reconcile real cash flow with tax benefits.Emphasis on predictable, consistent, ethical investing:Buying conservatively priced SFRsFocusing on win–win deals for sellers, tenants, managers, and investorsUsing 1031 exchanges and refinances to grow instead of cashing out and killing the goose.Closing idea: There’s no cheat code or secret shortcut—just a clear formula anyone can follow if they’re willing to be patient, disciplined, and ethical. Subscribe to the Weekly Newsletter:Get weekly deals, market updates, blog posts, and more delivered straight to your inbox.👉 Join the list here   Ready to Build Your Game Plan?Book a call with Kevin and see what your personalized real estate roadmap could look like.👉 dfy-realestate.com   Connect With Us:Email Kevin directly: kevin@dfy-realestate.com Learn more about DFY’s done-for-you investing approach at dfy-realestate.com

    36 min
5
out of 5
110 Ratings

About

This is where real estate meets real results. Each week, Kevin Clayson and Steve Earl, founders of DFY Real Estate, reveal how everyday Americans are quietly building retirement wealth by playing real-life Moneyball with real estate. This isn’t some “swing for the fences” gamble—this is a conservative, proven approach built on hitting real estate singles over and over again. Learn more and get your free Real Estate Game Plan at https://dfy-realestate.com

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